A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional  flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2:  Historical context and relation to climate change

Ludwig, Patrick; Ehmele, Florian; Franca, Mário J.; Mohr, Susanna; Caldas-Alvarez, Alberto; Daniell, James E.; Ehret, Uwe; Feldmann, Hendrik; Hundhausen, Marie; Knippertz, Peter; Küpfer, Katharina; Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Quinting, Julian; Schäfer, Andreas M.; Seidel, Frank; Wisotzky, Christina

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

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Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023

Special issue:

Past and future European atmospheric extreme events under...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

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05 Apr 2023

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| 05 Apr 2023

A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change

Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky

Patrick Ludwig

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

patrick.ludwig@kit.edu

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3655-7890

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Florian Ehmele

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4230-9295

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Mário J. Franca

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0265-8581

Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Susanna Mohr

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3556-7299

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Alberto Caldas-Alvarez

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2224-4228

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

James E. Daniell

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2157-6431

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Uwe Ehret

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3454-8755

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Hendrik Feldmann

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6987-7351

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Marie Hundhausen

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5400-3088

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Peter Knippertz

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9856-619X

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Katharina Küpfer

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3986-6840

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Michael Kunz

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Bernhard Mühr

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Joaquim G. Pinto

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8865-1769

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Julian Quinting

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8409-2541

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Andreas M. Schäfer

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8834-7847

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Frank Seidel

Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Christina Wisotzky

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3956-3156

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute of Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

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I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.

Short summary

Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.

Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring...

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Past and future European atmospheric extreme events under...

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