Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Apr 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Apr 2023
| 05 Apr 2023
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Florian Ehmele
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Mário J. Franca
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Susanna Mohr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
James E. Daniell
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Uwe Ehret
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marie Hundhausen
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Peter Knippertz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Katharina Küpfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Michael Kunz
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Bernhard Mühr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Julian Quinting
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Andreas M. Schäfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Frank Seidel
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Christina Wisotzky
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
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Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
- Mixed response of trace element concentrations in fluvial sediments to a flash flood in a former mining area A. Weber & F. Lehmkuhl 10.1186/s12302-024-00926-5
- Understanding flood risk in urban environments: spatial analysis of building vulnerability and hazard areas in the Lisbon metropolitan area P. Santos et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06731-w
- The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions? M. Newson & J. Lewin 10.1002/rra.4363
- Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach R. Tahara et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780
- Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability I. de Vries et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01622-1
- Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium M. Journée et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023
- Mitigating infectious disease risks through non-stationary flood frequency analysis: a case study in Malaysia based on natural disaster reduction strategy N. Mat Jan et al. 10.4081/gh.2023.1236
- Dominant flood types in mountains catchments: Identification and change analysis for the landscape planning A. Sikorska-Senoner et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119905
- Hinging on the preparedness of first responders. A case study on the 2021 flood operations in Romania I. Armaş et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105008
- Fragility Analysis Based on Damaged Bridges during the 2021 Flood in Germany A. Pucci et al. 10.3390/app131810454
- Structural damage, clogging, collapsing: Analysis of the bridge damage at the rivers Ahr, Inde and Vicht caused by the flood of 2021 L. Burghardt et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13001
- Governance strategies and tools towards the improvement of emergency management of natural disasters in transboundary areas D. Bignami et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104704
- Climate storylines as a way of bridging the gap between information and decision-making in hydrological risk D. Caviedes-Voullième et al. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000270
- Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate X. Zhou et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07012-1
- When, at what speed, and how? Resilient transformation of the Vesdre river basin (Belgium) following the 2021 floods M. de Goër de Herve & W. Pot 10.1186/s12302-024-00928-3
- Assessing the environmental impacts of flooding in Brazil using the flood area segmentation network deep learning model A. Şener & B. Ergen 10.1007/s11069-024-06914-5
- Urban flood drifters (UFD): Identification, classification and characterisation A. Bayón et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13002
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- A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany P. Voit & M. Heistermann 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
- A 131-year evidence of more extreme and higher total amount of hourly precipitation in Hong Kong Y. Lai et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad21b1
- Performance evaluation of various hydrological models with respect to hydrological responses under climate change scenario: a review Y. Bihon et al. 10.1080/23311916.2024.2360007
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. 10.1002/joc.8393
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- On the Application of Machine Learning Into Flood Modeling: Data Consideration and Modeling Algorithm A. Pourzangbar et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4602934
- Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information L. MacPherson et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023
- Micro-Catchments, Macro Effects: Natural Water Retention Measures in the Kylldal Catchment, Germany S. Nauta et al. 10.3390/w16050733
- Impacts of social contracts for citizens in the austrian flood risk management system K. Weber et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104266
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Assessing the impact of the 2021 flood event on the archaeological heritage of the Rhineland (Germany) I. Schmidt et al. 10.1186/s12302-024-00991-w
- Post-Flood Resilience Assessment of July 2021 Flood in Western Germany and Henan, China B. Manandhar et al. 10.3390/land12030625
- Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021 J. Tradowsky et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Flood reconstruction – The unexpected rather frequent event at River Ahr in July 2021 T. Roggenkamp et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104541
- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
- Mixed response of trace element concentrations in fluvial sediments to a flash flood in a former mining area A. Weber & F. Lehmkuhl 10.1186/s12302-024-00926-5
- Understanding flood risk in urban environments: spatial analysis of building vulnerability and hazard areas in the Lisbon metropolitan area P. Santos et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06731-w
- The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions? M. Newson & J. Lewin 10.1002/rra.4363
- Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach R. Tahara et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780
- Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability I. de Vries et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01622-1
- Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium M. Journée et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023
- Mitigating infectious disease risks through non-stationary flood frequency analysis: a case study in Malaysia based on natural disaster reduction strategy N. Mat Jan et al. 10.4081/gh.2023.1236
- Dominant flood types in mountains catchments: Identification and change analysis for the landscape planning A. Sikorska-Senoner et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119905
- Hinging on the preparedness of first responders. A case study on the 2021 flood operations in Romania I. Armaş et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105008
- Fragility Analysis Based on Damaged Bridges during the 2021 Flood in Germany A. Pucci et al. 10.3390/app131810454
- Structural damage, clogging, collapsing: Analysis of the bridge damage at the rivers Ahr, Inde and Vicht caused by the flood of 2021 L. Burghardt et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13001
- Governance strategies and tools towards the improvement of emergency management of natural disasters in transboundary areas D. Bignami et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104704
- Climate storylines as a way of bridging the gap between information and decision-making in hydrological risk D. Caviedes-Voullième et al. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000270
- Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate X. Zhou et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07012-1
- When, at what speed, and how? Resilient transformation of the Vesdre river basin (Belgium) following the 2021 floods M. de Goër de Herve & W. Pot 10.1186/s12302-024-00928-3
- Assessing the environmental impacts of flooding in Brazil using the flood area segmentation network deep learning model A. Şener & B. Ergen 10.1007/s11069-024-06914-5
- Urban flood drifters (UFD): Identification, classification and characterisation A. Bayón et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13002
- Daily Rainfall Patterns During Storm “Daniel” Based on Different Satellite Data S. Kolios & N. Papavasileiou 10.3390/atmos15111277
- A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany P. Voit & M. Heistermann 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
- A 131-year evidence of more extreme and higher total amount of hourly precipitation in Hong Kong Y. Lai et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad21b1
- Performance evaluation of various hydrological models with respect to hydrological responses under climate change scenario: a review Y. Bihon et al. 10.1080/23311916.2024.2360007
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. 10.1002/joc.8393
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- On the Application of Machine Learning Into Flood Modeling: Data Consideration and Modeling Algorithm A. Pourzangbar et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4602934
- Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information L. MacPherson et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023
- Micro-Catchments, Macro Effects: Natural Water Retention Measures in the Kylldal Catchment, Germany S. Nauta et al. 10.3390/w16050733
- Impacts of social contracts for citizens in the austrian flood risk management system K. Weber et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104266
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Assessing the impact of the 2021 flood event on the archaeological heritage of the Rhineland (Germany) I. Schmidt et al. 10.1186/s12302-024-00991-w
- Post-Flood Resilience Assessment of July 2021 Flood in Western Germany and Henan, China B. Manandhar et al. 10.3390/land12030625
- Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021 J. Tradowsky et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Executive editor
I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring...
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