Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Florian Ehmele
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Mário J. Franca
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Susanna Mohr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
James E. Daniell
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Uwe Ehret
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marie Hundhausen
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Peter Knippertz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Katharina Küpfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Michael Kunz
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Bernhard Mühr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Julian Quinting
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Andreas M. Schäfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Frank Seidel
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Christina Wisotzky
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
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60 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Financing the Future of Water: Unlocking Investment, Innovation, and Governance for Resilient Infrastructure in a Changing Climate F. Granata & F. Di Nunno
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- Mixed response of trace element concentrations in fluvial sediments to a flash flood in a former mining area A. Weber & F. Lehmkuhl
- Increased high flows in Germany under 1.5 K, 2.0 K and 3.0 K warming based on a large regional climate model ensemble A. Chandrasekar et al.
- The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions? M. Newson & J. Lewin
- Floods and infectious diseases: public health lessons from the 2024 southern Brazil disaster A. Pasqualotto et al.
- Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability I. de Vries et al.
- Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting V. Thompson et al.
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- A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events G. Lenderink et al.
- Floodplain vegetation filters microplastics during a major Rhine flood event M. Rolf et al.
- Building Resilience to Environmental Vulnerabilities: Insights into Communication Gaps in Contexts of Extreme Precipitation A. Barbosa
- It takes a village: reflexive capacity in municipal climate change adaptation processes D. Fila & H. Fünfgeld
- The mirage of the silver bullet: Exploring the limitations of high-resolution data in flood model validation P. Chakraborty et al.
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- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al.
- Hydrological modelling of the 2021 mega-flood in the east of Belgium C. Dessers et al.
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- Unravelling the frequency and magnitude of large wood mobility and transport distance across 11 low‐order streams over multiple years B. Finch et al.
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- Spatial approach for assessing vulnerability to urban flooding: a proposal for a multidimensional index A. Gomez Vaca et al.
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- Intercomparison of Earth Observation products for hyper-resolution hydrological modelling over Europe A. García-García et al.
- Signals without action: a value chain analysis of Luxembourg's 2021 flood disaster J. Da Costa et al.
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- Reflections on science, power, and the limits of policy A. Braun
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- Structural damage, clogging, collapsing: Analysis of the bridge damage at the rivers Ahr, Inde and Vicht caused by the flood of 2021 L. Burghardt et al.
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- Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate X. Zhou et al.
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- Enhancing urban resilience: Managing flood-induced disruptions in road networks G. Salvo et al.
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- The July 2021 flood event in the Eifel-Ardennes mountains as simulated by the high-resolution integrated hydrologic model ParFlow K. Goergen et al.
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- Impacts of social contracts for citizens in the austrian flood risk management system K. Weber et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 May 2026
Editorial statement
I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring...
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