Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 09 Dec 2022
| 09 Dec 2022
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Ana C. L. Sá
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia,
Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Bruno Aparicio
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia,
Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Akli Benali
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia,
Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Chiara Bruni
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia,
Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Michele Salis
Istituto per la BioEconomia, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Sassari, Italy
Fábio Silva
Autoridade Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil,
Lisbon, Portugal
Martinho Marta-Almeida
Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña, Instituto Español de
Oceanografía, A Coruña, Spain
Susana Pereira
Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar, Universidade de Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
Alfredo Rocha
Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar, Universidade de Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
José Pereira
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia,
Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Related authors
Akli Benali, Nuno Guiomar, Hugo Gonçalves, Bernardo Mota, Fábio Silva, Paulo M. Fernandes, Carlos Mota, Alexandre Penha, João Santos, José M. C. Pereira, and Ana C. L. Sá
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3791–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3791-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the spread of 80 large wildfires that burned recently in Portugal and calculated metrics that describe how wildfires behave, such as rate of spread, growth rate, and energy released. We describe the fire behaviour distribution using six percentile intervals that can be easily communicated to both research and management communities. The database will help improve our current knowledge on wildfire behaviour and support better decision making.
Dina Jahanianfard, Joana Parente, Oscar Gonzalez-Pelayo, and Akli Benali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-305, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-305, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This data description paper provides details on the development of the first Portuguese burn severity atlas in Portugal from 1984 to 2022 derived from satellite imagery via Google Earth Engine platform. Moreover, a semi-automated code was also developed, which can be used to create burn severity atlas of any other region in the world. The maps of this atlas can be used not only in fields related to fire ecology and management, but also within research areas related to air, water, and soil.
Akli Benali, Nuno Guiomar, Hugo Gonçalves, Bernardo Mota, Fábio Silva, Paulo M. Fernandes, Carlos Mota, Alexandre Penha, João Santos, José M. C. Pereira, and Ana C. L. Sá
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3791–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3791-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the spread of 80 large wildfires that burned recently in Portugal and calculated metrics that describe how wildfires behave, such as rate of spread, growth rate, and energy released. We describe the fire behaviour distribution using six percentile intervals that can be easily communicated to both research and management communities. The database will help improve our current knowledge on wildfire behaviour and support better decision making.
Elena Aragoneses, Mariano García, Michele Salis, Luís M. Ribeiro, and Emilio Chuvieco
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1287–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new hierarchical fuel classification system with a total of 85 fuels that is useful for preventing fire risk at different spatial scales. Based on this, we developed a European fuel map (1 km resolution) using land cover datasets, biogeographic datasets, and bioclimatic modelling. We validated the map by comparing it to high-resolution data, obtaining high overall accuracy. Finally, we developed a crosswalk for standard fuel models as a first assignment of fuel parameters.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Carolina Viceto, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Annette Rinke, Marion Maturilli, Alfredo Rocha, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 441–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-441-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-441-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on anomalous moisture transport events known as atmospheric rivers (ARs). During ACLOUD and PASCAL, three AR events were identified: 30 May, 6 June, and 9 June 2017. We explore their spatio-temporal evolution and precipitation patterns using measurements, reanalyses, and a model. We show the importance of the following: Atlantic and Siberian pathways during spring–summer in the Arctic, AR-associated heat/moisture increase, precipitation phase transition, and high-resolution datasets.
R. Jahdi, M. Salis, M. Arabi, and B. Arca
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 577–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-577-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-577-2019, 2019
R. Jahdi, M. Salis, A. A. Darvishsefat, M. A. Mostafavi, F. Alcasena, V. Etemad, O. Lozano, and D. Spano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 443–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-443-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-443-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This work aimed to calibrate FARSITE simulator using a set of wildfires that occurred in north Iranian forests. Fire modeling showed a high potential for estimating spatial variability in fire spread and behavior of the case studies selected. This paper represents a first step in the application of fire spread modeling in northern Iran in wildfire risk monitoring and management. The methodology can be replicated in other Caspian ecosystems to characterize fire spread and behavior.
J. C. Teixeira, A. C. Carvalho, M. J. Carvalho, T. Luna, and A. Rocha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2009-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2009-2014, 2014
S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3741–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3741-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range fire weather index forecasts in Europe
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca Anne Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factor in avalanche decision making has become increasingly popular the past two decades. The studies span across a wide range of disciplines and is published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of the literature this study provide a systematic scooping review of human factor in avalanche decision making. 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main theme.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible risk for wildfires but requires post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. We present a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistical post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 days. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with elevated FWI values.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Cited articles
Alcasena, F. J., Salis, M., and Vega-García, C.: A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain, Eur. J. Forest. Res., 135, 87–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10342-015-0919-6, 2016.
Alcasena, F., Ager, A., Le Page, Y., Bessa, P., Loureiro, C., and Oliveira,
T.: Assessing Wildfire Exposure to Communities and Protected Areas in Portugal, Fire, 4, 82, https://doi.org/10.3390/FIRE4040082, 2021.
Alexander, M. E. and Cruz, M. G.: Fireline Intensity, in: Encycl. Wildfires
Wildland-Urban Interface Fires, Springer, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51727-8_52-1, 2019.
Anderson, H. E.: Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior, General Technical Report INT-122, USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 28 pp., https://books.google.pt/books?hl=pt-PT&lr=&id=IeAhH-ovVKcC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&ots=1h2dntjZ6q&sig=7jRzP15v_VqnVcyVFdGjf6Km44I&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false (last access: 7 December 2022), 1982.
Anderson, W. R., Cruz, M. G., Fernandes, P. M., McCaw, L., Vega, J. A.,
Bradstock, R. A., Fogarty, L., Gould, J., McCarthy, G., and Marsden-Smedley,
J. B.: A generic, empirical-based model for predicting rate of fire spread
in shrublands, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 24, 443–460, 2015.
Aparício, B. A., Pereira, J. M. C., Santos, F. C., Bruni, C., and Sá, A. C. L.: Combining wildfire behaviour simulations and network analysis to support wildfire management: A Mediterranean landscape case study, Ecol. Indic., 137, 108726, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2022.108726, 2022.
Banfield, J. D. and Raftery, A. E.: Model-Based Gaussian and Non-Gaussian
Clustering, Biometrics, 49, 803, https://doi.org/10.2307/2532201, 1993.
Barreiro, S., Benali, A., Rua, J. C. P., Tomé, M., Santos, J. L., and
Pereira, J. M. C.: Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level
Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient
Landscapes, Forests, 12, 1498, https://doi.org/10.3390/F12111498, 2021.
Benali, A., Ervilha, A. R., Sá, A. C. L., Fernandes, P. M., Pinto, R. M.
S., Trigo, R. M., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations, Sci. Total Environ., 569, 73–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.112, 2016a.
Benali, A., Russo, A., Sá, A. C. L., Pinto, R. M. S., Price, O., Koutsias, N., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Determining Fire Dates and Locating
Ignition Points With Satellite Data, Remote Sens., 8, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8040326, 2016b.
Benali, A., Sá, A. C. L., Ervilha, A. R., Trigo, R. M., Fernandes, P. M.,
and Pereira, J. M. C.: Fire spread predictions: Sweeping uncertainty under
the rug, Sci. Total Environ., 592, 187–196, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2017.03.106, 2017.
Benali, A., Sá, A. C. L., Pinho, J., Fernandes, P. M., and Pereira, J. M.
C.: Understanding the Impact of Different Landscape-Level Fuel Management
Strategies on Wildfire Hazard in Central Portugal, Forests, 12, 522, https://doi.org/10.3390/F12050522, 2021.
Bowman, D., Williamson, G., Abatzoglou, J., Kolden, C., Cochrane, M., and
Smith, A.: Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 1, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058, 2017.
Butler, B. W., Anderson, W. R., and Catchpole, E. A.: Influence of slope on
fire spread rate, USDA For. Serv. Proc., 75–82, 2007.
Byram, G.: Combustion of forest fuels, For. fire Control use, 61–89
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10029316165/en/ (last access: 5 January 2022), 1959.
Calheiros, T., Nunes, J. P., and Pereira, M. G.: Recent evolution of spatial
and temporal patterns of burnt areas and fire weather risk in the Iberian
Peninsula, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 287, 107923, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2020.107923, 2020.
Calkin, D. E., Cohen, J. D., Finney, M. A., and Thompson, M. P.: How risk
management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban
interface, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 746–751, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315088111, 2014.
Castellnou, M., Guiomar, N., Rego, F., and Fernandes, P.: Fire growth patterns in the 2017 mega fire episode of October 15, central Portugal, Adv. Forest. Fire Res., 2018, 447–453, https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-16-506_48, 2018.
Catry, F. X., Rego, F. C., Bação, F. L., and Moreira, F.: Modeling
and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 18,
921–931, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07123, 2009.
Costa, J., Aguiar, C., Capelo, J., Lousã, M., and Neto, C.: Biogeografia
de Portugal continental, https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/handle/10198/714 (last access: 12 August 2021), 1998.
Curt, T. and Frejaville, T.: Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?, Risk Anal., 38, 472–488,
https://doi.org/10.1111/RISA.12855, 2018.
DGT – Direção-Geral do Território Dados abertos | DGT,
Port. L. Use L. Cover 2018, https://www.dgterritorio.gov.pt/dados-abertos, last access: 23 August 2021.
Duane, A., Miranda, M. D., and Brotons, L.: Forest connectivity percolation
thresholds for fire spread under different weather conditions, Forest Ecol.
Manage., 498, 119558, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORECO.2021.119558, 2021.
Duguy, B., Alloza, J. A., Röder, A., Vallejo, R., and Pastor, F.:
Modelling the effects of landscape fuel treatments on fire growth and behaviour in a Mediterranean landscape (eastern Spain), Int. J. Wildl. Fire,
16, 619–632, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06101, 2007.
European Commission: Land-based wildfire prevention: principles and experiences on managing landscapes, forests and woodlands for safety and
resilience in Europe, edited by: Nuijten, D., Onida, M., and Lelouvier, R.,
Publications Office, https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/4e6cc1f1-8b8a-11eb-b85c-01aa75ed71a1 (last access: 7 December 2022), 2021.
EEA – European Environment Agency: Copernicus Land Monitoring Service User
Manual Consortium Partners, https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/high-resolution-layers/forests
(last access: 26 February 2022), 2018.
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D. E.: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007.
Fernandes, P., Gonçalves, H., Loureiro, C., Fernandes, M., Costa, T., Cruz, M., and Botelho, H.: Modelos de combustível florestal para Portugal, in: Actas Do 6o Congresso Florestal Nacional, SPCF – Sociedade Portuguesa de Ciências Florestais, Lisboa, Portugal, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261708410_Modelos_de_Combustivel_Florestal_para_Portugal (last access: 7 December 2022), 2009.
Fernandes, P. M., Loureiro, C., Guiomar, N., Pezzatti, G. B., Manso, F. T.,
and Lopes, L.: The dynamics and drivers of fuel and fire in the Portuguese
public forest, J. Environ. Manage., 146, 373–382, 2014.
Fernandes, P. M., Monteiro-Henriques, T., Guiomar, N., Loureiro, C., and
Barros, A. M. G.: Bottom-Up Variables Govern Large-Fire Size in Portugal,
Ecosystems, 19, 1362–1375, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10021-016-0010-2/TABLES/3, 2016.
Fernandes, P. M., Guiomar, N., and Rossa, C. G.: Analysing eucalypt expansion
in Portugal as a fire-regime modifier, Sci. Total Environ., 666, 79–88,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2019.02.237, 2019.
Filippi, J.-B., Mallet, V., Nader, B., Filippi, J.-B., Mallet, V., and Nader, B.: Representation and evaluation of wildfire propagation simulations, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 23, 46–57, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF12202, 2013.
Finney, M. A.: Fire growth using minimum travel time methods, Can. J. Forest Res., 32, 1420–1424, https://doi.org/10.1139/x02-068, 2002.
Finney, M. A.: An overview of FlamMap fire modeling capabilities, in Fuels
management – how to measure success: conference proceedings, March 28–30,
in: Proceedings RMRS-P-41, Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, US, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Portland,
Oregon, p. 13, https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/25948 (last access: 23 August 2021), 2006.
Fletcher, R. J., Burrell, N. S., Reichert, B. E., Vasudev, D., and Austin, J.
D.: Divergent Perspectives on Landscape Connectivity Reveal Consistent
Effects from Genes to Communities, Curr. Landsc. Ecol. Rep., 1, 67–79, https://doi.org/10.1007/S40823-016-0009-6, 2016.
ICNF: Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas; Projeto
áGIL – Dados LiDAR, https://geocatalogo.icnf.pt/geovisualizador/agil.html (last access:
25 March 2022), 2021a.
ICNF: Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas, http://www.icnf.pt/portal/florestas/dfci/inc/estat-sgif (last access: 20 December 2021), 2021b.
Ingalsbee, T.: Whither the paradigm shift? Large wildland fires and the
wildfire paradox offer opportunities for a new paradigm of ecological fire
management, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 26, 557–561, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17062, 2017.
Keeley, A. T. H., Ackerly, D. D., Cameron, D. R., Heller, N. E., Huber, P.
R., Schloss, C. A., Thorne, J. H., and Merenlender, A. M.: New concepts, models, and assessments of climate-wise connectivity, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 073002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AACB85, 2018.
Liberatore, F., León, J., Hearne, J., and Vitoriano, B.: Fuel management
operations planning in fire management: A bilevel optimisation approach,
Safe. Sci., 137, 105181, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2021.105181, 2021.
Lozano, O. M., Salis, M., Ager, A. A., Arca, B., Alcasena, F. J., Monteiro, A. T., Finney, M. A., Del Giudice, L., Scoccimarro, E., and Spano, D.: Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas, Risk Anal., 37, 1898–1916, https://doi.org/10.1111/RISA.12739, 2017.
Marta-Almeida, M., Teixeira, J. C., Carvalho, M. J., Melo-Gonçalves, P.,
and Rocha, A. M.: High resolution WRF climatic simulations for the Iberian
Peninsula: Model validation, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 94, 94–105,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PCE.2016.03.010, 2016.
Martín, A., Botequim, B., Oliveira, T. M., Ager, A., and Pirotti, F.:
Resource Communication. Temporal optimization of fuel treatment design in
blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantations, Forest Syst., 25, eRC09–eRC09,
https://doi.org/10.5424/FS/2016252-09293, 2016.
Martín-Martín, C., Bunce, R. G. H., Saura, S., and Elena-Rosselló, R.: Changes and interactions between forest landscape connectivity and burnt area in Spain, Ecol. Indic., 33, 129–138,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2013.01.018, 2013.
Moreira, F., Viedma, O., Arianoutsou, M., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., Rigolot,
E., Barbati, A., Corona, P., Vaz, P., and Xanthopoulos, G.: Landscape–wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for
landscape management, J. Environ. Manage., 92, 2389–2402, 2011.
Moreira, F., Ascoli, D., Safford, H., Adams, M. A., Moreno, J. M., Pereira,
J. M. C., Catry, F. X., Armesto, J., Bond, W., González, M. E., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., McCaw, L., Price, O., Pausas, J. G., Rigolot, E., Stephens, S., Tavsanoglu, C., Vallejo, V. R., Van Wilgen, B. W., Xanthopoulos, G., and Fernandes, P. M.: Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: Paradigm change needed, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 011001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AB541E, 2020.
Moudio, P. E., Pais, C., and Shen, Z.-J. M.: Quantifying the impact of ecosystem services for landscape management under wildfire hazard, Nat. Hazards, 106, 531–560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04474-y, 2021.
Nelson Jr., R. M.: Prediction of diurnal change in 10-h fuel stick moisture
content, Can. J. Forest. Res., 30, 1071–1087, 2000.
Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., Benali, A., Sá, A., Zêzere, J. L.,
and Pereira, J. M.: Assessing Risk and Prioritizing Safety Interventions in
Human Settlements Affected by Large Wildfires, Forests, 11, 859,
https://doi.org/10.3390/F11080859, 2020.
Oliveira, S. L. J., Pereira, J. M. C., and Carreiras, J. M. B.: Fire frequency analysis in Portugal (1975–2005), using Landsat-based burnt area
maps, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 21, 48–60, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10131, 2012.
Oliveira, T. M., Barros, A. M. G., Ager, A. A., and Fernandes, P. M.: Assessing the effect of a fuel break network to reduce burnt area and wildfire risk transmission, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 25, 619–632,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15146, 2016.
Palaiologou, P., Ager, A. A., Nielsen-Pincus, M., Evers, C. R., and Kalabokidis, K.: Using transboundary wildfire exposure assessments to improve fire management programs: A case study in Greece, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 27, 501–513, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17119, 2018.
Palaiologou, P., Kalabokidis, K., Ager, A. A., and Day, M. A.: Development of
Comprehensive Fuel Management Strategies for Reducing Wildfire Risk in Greece, Forests, 11, 789, https://doi.org/10.3390/F11080789, 2020.
Parisien, M.-A., Dawe, D. A., Miller, C., Stockdale, C. A., and Armitage, O.
B.: Applications of simulation-based burn probability modelling: a review,
Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 28, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19069, 2019.
Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343–3358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011.
Plucinski, M. P.: Fighting Flames and Forging Firelines: Wildfire Suppression Effectiveness at the Fire Edge, Curr. Forest. Rep., 5, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-019-00084-5, 2019.
Rachmawati, R., Ozlen, M., Reinke, K. J., and Hearne, J. W.: An optimisation
approach for fuel treatment planning to break the connectivity of high-risk
regions, Forest Ecol. Manage., 368, 94–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORECO.2016.03.014, 2016.
RCM: Resolução do Conselho de Ministros 71-A/2021, 2021-06-08 – DRE,
Aprova o Programa Nacional de Ação do Plano Nacional de Gestão
Integrada de Fogos Rurais, https://dre.pt/home/-/dre/164798802/details/maximized, last access: 30 September 2021.
Ribeiro, L. M., Rodrigues, A., Lucas, D., and Viegas, D. X.: The Impact on
Structures of the Pedrógão Grande Fire Complex in June 2017 (Portugal), Fire, 3, 57, https://doi.org/10.3390/FIRE3040057, 2020.
Rodrigues, M., Alcasena, F., and Vega-García, C.: Modeling initial attack success of wildfire suppression in Catalonia, Spain, Sci. Total Environ., 666, 915–927, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2019.02.323, 2019.
Rothermel, R. C.: A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in
wildland fuels, Res. Pap. INT-115, US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT, p. 40, https://books.google.pt/books?hl=pt-PT&lr=&id=27n_RugVVK0C&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&ots=9V3MCEpv34&sig=0pz2rz81krPm3gPxhvKPCFa_GaY&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false (last access: 6 December 2022), 1972.
Salis, M., Ager, A. A., Arca, B., Finney, M. A., Bacciu, V., Duce, P., and
Spano, D.: Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in
Sardinia, Italy, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 22, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11060, 2013.
Salis, M., Laconi, M., Ager, A. A., Alcasena, F. J., Arca, B., Lozano, O.,
Fernandes de Oliveira, A., and Spano, D.: Evaluating alternative fuel treatment strategies to reduce wildfire losses in a Mediterranean area, Forest Ecol. Manage., 368, 207–221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.03.009, 2016a.
Salis, M., Arca, B., Alcasena, F., Arianoutsou, M., Bacciu, V., Duce, P.,
Duguy, B., Koutsias, N., Mallinis, G., Mitsopoulos, I., Moreno, J. M., Pérez, J. R., Urbieta, I. R., Xystrakis, F., Zavala, G., and Spano, D.:
Predicting wildfire spread and behaviour in Mediterranean landscapes, Int.
J. Wildl. Fire, 25, 1015–1032, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15081, 2016b.
Salis, M., Del Giudice, L., Arca, B., Ager, A. A., Alcasena-Urdiroz, F., Lozano, O., Bacciu, V., Spano, D., and Duce, P.: Modeling the effects of
different fuel treatment mosaics on wildfire spread and behavior in a
Mediterranean agro-pastoral area, J. Environ. Manage., 212, 490–505,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.02.020, 2018.
Salis, M., Arca, B., Del Giudice, L., Palaiologou, P., Alcasena-Urdiroz, F.,
Ager, A., Fiori, M., Pellizzaro, G., Scarpa, C., Schirru, M., Ventura, A.,
Casula, M., and Duce, P.: Application of simulation modeling for wildfire
exposure and transmission assessment in Sardinia, Italy, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 58, 102189, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJDRR.2021.102189, 2021.
Scrucca, L., Fop, M., Murphy, T. B., and Raftery, A. E.: mclust 5: Clustering, Classification and Density Estimation Using Gaussian Finite Mixture Models, R J., 8, 289–317, https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2016-02, 2016.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., and Barker, D. M. A.: Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, p. 145, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2019.
Sørensen, T.: A method of establishing groups of equal amplitude in plant
sociology based on similarity of species and its application to analyses of
the vegetation on Danish commons, Biol. Skr., 5, 1–34, 1948.
Stahl, D. and Sallis, H.: Model-based cluster analysis, Wiley Interdisciplin.
Rev. Comput. Stat., 4, 341–358, https://doi.org/10.1002/WICS.1204, 2012.
Tedim, F., Leone, V., Amraoui, M., Bouillon, C., Coughlan, M. R., Delogu, G.
M., Fernandes, P. M., Ferreira, C., McCaffrey, S., McGee, T. K., Parente,
J., Paton, D., Pereira, M. G., Ribeiro, L. M., Viegas, D. X., and Xanthopoulos, G.: Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts, Fire, 1, 9, https://doi.org/10.3390/FIRE1010009, 2018.
Tyukavina, A., Potapov, P., Hansen, M. C., Pickens, A. H., Stehman, S. V.,
Turubanova, S., Parker, D., Zalles, V., Lima, A., Kommareddy, I., Song,
X.-P., Wang, L., and Harris, N.: Global Trends of Forest Loss Due to Fire
From 2001 to 2019, Front. Remote Sens., 3, 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/FRSEN.2022.825190, 2022.
Wunder, S., Calkin, D. E., Charlton, V., Feder, S., Martínez de Arano,
I., Moore, P., Rodríguez y Silva, F., Tacconi, L., and Vega-García,
C.: Resilient landscapes to prevent catastrophic forest fires: Socioeconomic
insights towards a new paradigm, Forest Policy Econ., 128, 102458,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORPOL.2021.102458, 2021.
Zeller, K. A., Lewison, R., Fletcher, R. J., Tulbure, M. G., and Jennings, M.
K.: Understanding the Importance of Dynamic Landscape Connectivity, Land, 9, 303, https://doi.org/10.3390/LAND9090303, 2020.
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint