Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Invited perspectives
| 
26 Apr 2022
Invited perspectives |
| 26 Apr 2022
| 26 Apr 2022
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Philip J. Ward
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
James Daniell
Risklayer, Haid und Neu Str. 7, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Melanie Duncan
British Geological Survey, The Lyell Centre, Edinburgh, EH14 4BA,
United Kingdom
Anna Dunne
Arctik, Avenue de Broqueville 12, 1150 Woluwe-Saint-Pierre, Belgium
Cédric Hananel
Arctik, Avenue de Broqueville 12, 1150 Woluwe-Saint-Pierre, Belgium
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Annegien Tijssen
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Silvia Torresan
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione – Piano 2, Via della Libertà 12, 30175 Marghera-Venice, Italy
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre-Venice, Italy
Roxana Ciurean
British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, United Kingdom
Joel C. Gill
British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, United Kingdom
Jana Sillmann
CICERO, Gaustadallèen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway
Anaïs Couasnon
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Elco Koks
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Noemi Padrón-Fumero
Department of Applied Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of La Laguna, C/Padre Herrera, s/n, 38200 La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
Sharon Tatman
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Marianne Tronstad Lund
CICERO, Gaustadallèen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway
Adewole Adesiyun
FEHRL, Boulevard de la Woluwe 42, 1200 Brussels, Belgium
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Alexander Alabaster
AON, 8 Devonshire Square, London, EC2M 4PL, United Kingdom
Bernard Bulder
TNO, Anna van Buerenplein 1, 2595 DA the Hague, the Netherlands
Carlos Campillo Torres
CICYTEX, Avenida de Elvas, s/n, Campus Universitario,
06071 Badajoz, Spain
Andrea Critto
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione – Piano 2, Via della Libertà 12, 30175 Marghera-Venice, Italy
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre-Venice, Italy
Raúl Hernández-Martín
Department of Applied Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of La Laguna, C/Padre Herrera, s/n, 38200 La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
Marta Machado
HOTREC, Dautzenberg 36, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Jaroslav Mysiak
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione – Piano 2, Via della Libertà 12, 30175 Marghera-Venice, Italy
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre-Venice, Italy
Rene Orth
Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Straße 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Irene Palomino Antolín
CICYTEX, Avenida de Elvas, s/n, Campus Universitario,
06071 Badajoz, Spain
Eva-Cristina Petrescu
Department of Marketing, Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE Bucharest), 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania
Markus Reichstein
Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Straße 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Timothy Tiggeloven
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Anne F. Van Loon
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Hung Vuong Pham
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione – Piano 2, Via della Libertà 12, 30175 Marghera-Venice, Italy
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre-Venice, Italy
Marleen C. de Ruiter
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
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Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
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Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
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Joel C. Gill
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Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Zosia Staniaszek, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Irene Dedoussi, Sigrun Matthes, Flávio Quadros, Mattia Righi, Agnieszka Skowron, and Robin Thor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4273, 2025
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Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David D. Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10049–10074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, 2025
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3055–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, 2025
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Wenli Zhao, Alexander J. Winkler, Markus Reichstein, Rene Orth, and Pierre Gentine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4082, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Carley Elizabeth Iles, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Marianne Tronstad Lund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Polar sea ice changes and midlatitude weather affect each other, but how these teleconnections play out differ between the poles and between sea ice regions. Knowing how they interact is important for climate risk assessments, but few studies have investigated how the teleconnections evolve with global warming. Using large ensembles of climate model simulations, we find teleconnections patterns that differ between sea ice regions, but are quite robust to changes in global surface temperature.
Sophie L. Buijs, Inga J. Sauer, Chahan M. Kropf, Samuel Juhel, Zélie Stalhandske, and Marleen C. De Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3200, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We studied how repeated disasters affect recovery across housing, health, economic systems, and governance. Our findings show that failing to recover fully between events can increase long-term risks but also offers opportunities for learning and adaptation. Understanding these dynamics can help societies plan better, reduce vulnerability, and build resilience to increasingly frequent and severe hazards.
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2751–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, 2025
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Multiple hazards, occurring simultaneously or consecutively, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analysed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate number of the impacts, but there appear to be different archetypal patterns in which the impacts compound.
Basil Kraft, Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Ulrich Weber, Gregory Duveiller, Markus Reichstein, Weijie Zhang, Marc Rußwurm, Devis Tuia, Marco Körner, Zayd Hamdi, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 22, 3965–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3965-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates machine learning approaches for upscaling evapotranspiration from the site to the global scale. Sequential models capture temporal dynamics better, especially with precipitation data, but all models show biases in data-scarce regions. Improved upscaling requires richer training data, informed covariate selection, and physical constraints to enhance robustness and reduce extrapolation errors.
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
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We present a new framework based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to better detect outliers and model extremes. Unlike standard DMD, which focuses on average system behavior, our approach targets rare, exceptional dynamics. Applied to climate data, it improves extreme event approximation and reveals meaningful spatio-temporal patterns. The method may generalize to other types of extremes.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
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Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7863–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, 2025
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) is the time period when land absorbs more CO2 than it emits. While atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements can be used to assess CUP changes, atmospheric transport and asynchronous timing across regions reduce the accuracy of the estimates. Forward model experiments show that only ~ 50 % of prescribed shifts in CUP timing applied to surface fluxes (ΔCUPNEE) are captured in simulated CO2 mole fraction data at monitoring sites like the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.
Hao Huang, Junguo Liu, Aifang Chen, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-376, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Hydrological research benefits from a growing number and diversity of datasets. However, the consistency across the increasing suite of datasets is unclear, limiting the comparability of findings derived from different datasets and variables. We find overall low consistency of numerous state-of-the-art precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture datasets in terms of the water balance. Meanwhile, the water balance consistency varies across space, sources, variables, and time.
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Disaster risk management faces growing challenges from multiple, changing hazards. Interviews with stakeholders in five European regions reveal that climate change, urban growth, and socio-economic shifts increase vulnerability and exposure. Measures to reduce one risk can worsen others, highlighting the need for better coordination. The study calls for flexible, context-specific strategies that connect scientific risk assessments with real-world decision-making.
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, 2025
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As climate changes, extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. We investigate the time of emergence for a large range of different extremes, meaning the earliest time when a significant change in these extremes can be detected beyond natural variability, whether in the past or in the future. The results based on 21 global climate models show considerable differences between regions, types of indices and emissions scenarios, as well as between temperature and precipitation extremes.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
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Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Zavud Baghirov, Markus Reichstein, Basil Kraft, Bernhard Ahrens, Marco Körner, and Martin Jung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3123, 2025
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We introduce a new global model that links how water and carbon move through land ecosystems. By combining process knowledge with artificial intelligence that learns from observations, we model daily changes in vegetation, water and carbon cycle processes. This model outperforms both purely data-driven and traditional process models, especially in dry and tropical regions. This advance could improve current understanding of water-carbon cycle relationships.
Huazhi Li, Robert A. Jane, Dirk Eilander, Alejandra R. Enríquez, Toon Haer, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2993, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We assess the likelihood of widespread compound flooding along the U.S. coastline. Using a large set of generated plausible events preserving observed dependence, we find that nearly half of compound floods on the West coast affect multiple sites. Such events are rarer on the East coast while most compound events affect single sites on the Gulf coast. Our results underscore the importance of including spatial dependence in compound flood risk assessment and can help in better risk management.
Alessia Matanó, Raed Hamed, Manuela I. Brunner, Marlies H. Barendrecht, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2749–2764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, 2025
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Persistent droughts change how rivers respond to rainfall. Our study of over 5000 catchments worldwide found that hydrological and soil moisture droughts decrease river-flow response to rain, especially in arid regions, while vegetation decline slightly increases it. Snow-covered areas are more resilient due to stored water buffering changes. Droughts can also cause long-lasting changes, with short and intense droughts reducing river response to rainfall and prolonged droughts increasing it.
Hunter C. Quintal, Antonia Sebastian, Marc L. Serre, Wiebke S. Jäger, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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High quality weather event datasets are crucial to community preparedness and resilience. Researchers create such datasets using clustering methods, which we advance by addressing current limitation in the relationship between space and time. We propose a method to determine the appropriate factor by which to resample the spatial resolution of the data prior to clustering. Ultimately, our approach increases the ability to detect historic heatwaves over current methods.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Laura Nadolski, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jacob Nelson, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Anke Hildebrandt, Victor Rolo, Markus Reichstein, and Sung-Ching Lee
Biogeosciences, 22, 2935–2958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2935-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2935-2025, 2025
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Semi-arid ecosystems are crucial for Earth's carbon balance and are sensitive to changes in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) levels. Their carbon dynamics are complex and not fully understood. We studied how long-term nutrient changes affect carbon exchange. In summer, the addition of N+P changed plant composition and productivity. In transitional seasons, carbon exchange was less weather-dependent with N. The addition of N and N+P increases carbon-exchange variability, driven by grass greenness.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
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Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
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The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025
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We analyze drivers of hot temperature extremes, focusing on both atmospheric and land-surface factors. Using observation-based data and an analogue-based approach, we find that geopotential height at 500 hPa is the most significant driver worldwide at daily and weekly timescales. Surface net radiation and evaporative fraction play relevant roles at the daily scale and wind at the weekly timescale. The driver influence varies by region, related to differences in climate regimes and land cover.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin C. Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Mirco Migliavacca, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter H. Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
Biogeosciences, 22, 2425–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, 2025
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An interdisciplinary collaboration of 36 international researchers from 35 institutions highlights recent findings in biosphere research. Within eight themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. Based on an analysis of these eight topics, we have synthesized four overarching insights.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, Santiago Botía, Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, László Haszpra, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2097, 2025
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We create a hybrid ecosystem-level carbon flux model using both eddy-covariance observations and observations of the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 at three tall-tower observatories. Our study uses an atmospheric transport model (STILT) to connect the atmospheric signal to the ecosystem-level model. We show that this inclusion of atmospheric information meaningfully improves the model's representation of the interannual variability of the global net flux of CO2.
Zavud Baghirov, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Marco Körner, and Basil Kraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2921–2943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, 2025
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We use an innovative approach to studying the Earth's water cycle by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with a traditional water cycle model. Our model is designed to learn from observational data, with a particular emphasis on understanding the influence of vegetation on water movement. By closely aligning with real-world observations, our model offers new possibilities for enhancing our understanding of the water cycle and its interactions with vegetation.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Nora Linscheid, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1924, 2025
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The global land carbon sink has increased since the pre-industrial period, mainly caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 emissions and climate change. However, the large year-to-year variations can mask or amplify this trend. Here, we detect the time for the anthropogenic signal to emerge over natural variations in land carbon sink. We removed the circulation-induced variations in the global land carbon sink and effectively reduced the detection time of anthropogenic signal.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1597–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, 2025
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A high-resolution fixed-asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed-asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km × 1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that the fixed-asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached CNY 589.31 trillion in 2020.
Vylon Ooms, Thijs Endendijk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Peter Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, 2025
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Intense rainfall events cause increasingly severe damages to urban areas globally. We use unique insurance claims data to study the effect of nature-based and other adaptation measures on damage. We compare an area in Amsterdam where measures have been implemented to a similar, adjacent area without measures using an innovative method. We find a significant reduction of damage where the adaptation measures were implemented. Urban areas can reduce rain damage by implementing adaptation measures.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Marleen Pallandt, Marion Schrumpf, Holger Lange, Markus Reichstein, Lin Yu, and Bernhard Ahrens
Biogeosciences, 22, 1907–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1907-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1907-2025, 2025
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As soils warm due to climate change, soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposes faster due to increased microbial activity, given sufficient available moisture. We modelled the microbial decomposition of plant litter and residue at different depths and found that deep soil layers are more sensitive than topsoils. Warming causes SOC loss, but its extent depends on the litter type and its temperature sensitivity, which can either counteract or amplify losses. Droughts may also counteract warming-induced SOC losses.
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, 2025
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We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella Loureiro, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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In July 2021, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and Belgium were hit by an extreme flood event with over 200 fatalities. Our study provides, for the first time, critical insights into the operational flood early-warning systems in this entire region. Based on 13 expert interviews, we conclude that the systems strongly improved in all countries. Interviewees stressed the need for operational impact-based forecasts, but emphasized that its operational implementation is challenging.
Ekta Aggarwal, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kartikeya S. Sangwan, Rajiv Sinha, Sophie Buijs, Ranjay Shrestha, Sanjeev Gupta, and Alexander C. Whittaker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, 2025
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The occurrence of frequent floods in recent years due to changing weather, heavy rainfall, and the natural landscape, has caused major damage to lives and property. This study looks at flood risks in the Ganga Basin, focusing on the factors that cause floods, the areas affected, and the vulnerability of people. The study uses NASA's night-time lights to track human activities. This helps to show how risks are connected to expanding human activities, and changing resilience to floods.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
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The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Nivedita Sairam and Marleen de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, 2025
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This paper highlights gaps in disaster risk assessments, particularly regarding disease outbreaks after natural hazards. It calls for: 1) learning from compound risk models to understand disaster and disease probabilities, 2) including health metrics in risk frameworks, and 3) improving data and modeling for health impacts. The authors propose a research agenda to enhance disaster risk management.
Davide Mauro Ferrario, Marcello Sanò, Margherita Maraschini, Andrea Critto, and Silvia Torresan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670, 2025
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This review explores how Machine Learning (ML) can advance multi-hazard and multi-risk going through four main themes: data processing, hazard prediction, risk assessment, and future climate scenarios. It shows how ML is widely used for Earth observations and climate data processing, with Deep Learning applied for hazard prediction and ensemble ML methods for risks, and how future research moving towards analysis of multi-hazard interactions, dynamic vulnerability and early warning systems.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
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This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Wenli Zhao, Alexander J. Winkler, Markus Reichstein, Rene Orth, and Pierre Gentine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-365, 2025
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We developed a machine learning model that accounts for the memory effects of soil moisture and vegetation to predict Evaporative Fraction (EF) without relying on soil moisture as a direct input. The model accurately predicts EF during dry periods for the unseen sites, highlighting the key of meteorological memory effects. The learned memory effect related to rooting depth and soil water holding capacity could potentially serve as proxies for assessing the plant water stress.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, 2025
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We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
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As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
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Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, 2024
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This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Jiří Dušek, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, 2024
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Our study finds that heatwave, drought and wildfire events occurring simultaneously in Scandinavia are pronounced in the summer months; and the heat-drought 2018 event led to a drop in gross domestic product, affecting agriculture and forestry imports, further impacting Europe’s trade balance. This research shows the importance of ripple effects of multi-hazard, and that forest management and adaptation measures are vital to reducing the risks of heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable areas.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterize multi-hazard scenarios in karst environments, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
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In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
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Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
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This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Jasper M. C. Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martha M. Vogel, Xin Yu, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, 2024
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Heat extremes have severe implications for human health and ecosystems. Heat extremes are mostly introduced by large-scale atmospheric circulation but can be modulated by vegetation. Vegetation with access to water uses solar energy to evaporate water into the atmosphere. Under dry conditions, water may not be available, suppressing evaporation and heating the atmosphere. Using climate projections, we show that regionally less water is available for vegetation, intensifying future heat extremes.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Sinikka J. Paulus, Rene Orth, Sung-Ching Lee, Anke Hildebrandt, Martin Jung, Jacob A. Nelson, Tarek Sebastian El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Matthias Mauder, Jannis Groh, Alexander Graf, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 21, 2051–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2051-2024, 2024
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Porous materials are known to reversibly trap water from the air, even at low humidity. However, this behavior is poorly understood for soils. In this analysis, we test whether eddy covariance is able to measure the so-called adsorption of atmospheric water vapor by soils. We find that this flux occurs frequently during dry nights in a Mediterranean ecosystem, while EC detects downwardly directed vapor fluxes. These results can help to map moisture uptake globally.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
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Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Martin Jung, Jacob Nelson, Mirco Migliavacca, Tarek El-Madany, Dario Papale, Markus Reichstein, Sophia Walther, and Thomas Wutzler
Biogeosciences, 21, 1827–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, 2024
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We present a methodology to detect inconsistencies in perhaps the most important data source for measurements of ecosystem–atmosphere carbon, water, and energy fluxes. We expect that the derived consistency flags will be relevant for data users and will help in improving our understanding of and our ability to model ecosystem–climate interactions.
Prajwal Khanal, Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke, Timo Schaffhauser, Wantong Li, Sinikka J. Paulus, Chunhui Zhan, and René Orth
Biogeosciences, 21, 1533–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1533-2024, 2024
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Water availability is essential for vegetation functioning, but the depth of vegetation water uptake is largely unknown due to sparse ground measurements. This study correlates vegetation growth with soil moisture availability globally to infer vegetation water uptake depth using only satellite-based data. We find that the vegetation water uptake depth varies across climate regimes and vegetation types and also changes during dry months at a global scale.
Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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Multi-hazard events can be devastating and there are indications that in such situations the exposed risk-bearers are affected more severely compared to single-hazard events. We present some statistical modeling approaches to determine possible interrelationships of hazards and tested them for the specific case of the countries within the Danube Region. We especially focused on the question whether certain hazards are more likely to occur due to preceding hazardous events.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
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Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Eric C. Apel, Donald R. Blake, Karl Froyd, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Jose Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Michael Lawler, Mingxu Liu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Benjamin A. Nault, Joyce E. Penner, Andrew W. Rollins, Gregory Schill, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Hailong Wang, Lu Xu, Kai Zhang, and Jialei Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1717–1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, 2024
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This work studies sulfur in the remote troposphere at global and seasonal scales using aircraft measurements and multi-model simulations. The goal is to understand the sulfur cycle over remote oceans, spread of model simulations, and observation–model discrepancies. Such an understanding and comparison with real observations are crucial to narrow down the uncertainties in model sulfur simulations and improve understanding of the sulfur cycle in atmospheric air quality, climate, and ecosystems.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Tarek El-Madany, Victor Rolo, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Silvia Caldararu, Kendalynn A. Morris, Marion Schrumpf, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, 2023
Preprint archived
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We studied a Mediterranean ecosystem to understand carbon uptake efficiency and its controls. These ecosystems face potential nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances due to pollution. Analysing six years of carbon data, we assessed controls at different timeframes. This is crucial for predicting such vulnerable regions. Our findings revealed N limitation on C uptake, not N:P imbalance, and strong influence of water availability. whether drought or wetness promoted net C uptake depended on timescale.
Saroj Kumar Sahu, Poonam Mangaraj, Gufran Beig, Marianne T. Lund, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Pallavi Sahoo, and Ashirbad Mishra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Elevated emission of particulate matter is not limited to urban areas, led to poor air quality across the country. Emission Inventory is the first line of defensive tools for air quality management and understanding and identification of the source of pollutants. The present work is an attempt to develop a high-resolution (~10 km) national inventory of particulate pollutants in India for 2020 using IPCC methodology. The developed dataset is vital piece of information for mitigation strategies.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
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There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
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Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Julia Marshall, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans, and Markus Reichstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3299–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, 2023
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The timing and duration of the carbon uptake period (CUP) are sensitive to the occurrence of major phenological events, which are influenced by recent climate change. This study presents an ensemble-based approach for quantifying the timing and duration of the CUP and their uncertainty when derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements with noise and gaps. The CUP metrics derived with the approach are more robust and have less uncertainty than when estimated with the conventional methods.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
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We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
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Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
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We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
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We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
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Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
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Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Manal Lam'barki, Wantong Li, Sungmin O, Chunhui Zhan, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-404, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We investigate the main drivers of high river flows in near-natural European catchments. While there are a lot of previous research in this area, the understanding of the relative relevance of high flow drivers other than precipitation is understudied. We find that the secondary drivers of high river flows are very diverse and become more relevant for more extreme events. This illustrates the necessity of flood management by considering a multitude of drivers in the context of climate change.
Sinikka Jasmin Paulus, Tarek Sebastian El-Madany, René Orth, Anke Hildebrandt, Thomas Wutzler, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Oscar Perez-Priego, Olaf Kolle, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6263–6287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, 2022
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In this study, we analyze small inputs of water to ecosystems such as fog, dew, and adsorption of vapor. To measure them, we use a scaling system and later test our attribution of different water fluxes to weight changes. We found that they occur frequently during 1 year in a dry summer ecosystem. In each season, a different flux seems dominant, but they all mainly occur during the night. Therefore, they could be important for the biosphere because rain is unevenly distributed over the year.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
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Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
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We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
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Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Xin Yu, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Michael Bahn, Anne Klosterhalfen, Alexander Knohl, Franziska Koebsch, Mirco Migliavacca, Martina Mund, Jacob A. Nelson, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sophia Walther, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, 2022
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Identifying drought legacy effects is challenging because they are superimposed on variability driven by climate conditions in the recovery period. We develop a residual-based approach to quantify legacies on gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance data. The GPP reduction due to legacy effects is comparable to the concurrent effects at two sites in Germany, which reveals the importance of legacy effects. Our novel methodology can be used to quantify drought legacies elsewhere.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
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We use multiple regional climate models to show that afforestation in sub-polar and alpine regions reduces the radiative impact of snow albedo on the atmosphere, reduces snow cover, and delays the start of the snowmelt season. This is important for local communities that are highly reliant on snowpack for water resources and winter tourism. However, models disagree on the amount of change particularly when snow is melting. This shows that more research is needed on snow–vegetation interactions.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
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We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
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We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Josephin Kroll, Jasper M. C. Denissen, Mirco Migliavacca, Wantong Li, Anke Hildebrandt, and Rene Orth
Biogeosciences, 19, 477–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-477-2022, 2022
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Plant growth relies on having access to energy (solar radiation) and water (soil moisture). This energy and water availability is impacted by weather extremes, like heat waves and droughts, which will occur more frequently in response to climate change. In this context, we analysed global satellite data to detect in which regions extreme plant growth is controlled by energy or water. We find that extreme plant growth is associated with temperature- or soil-moisture-related extremes.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
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Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, 2021
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This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
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This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
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Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
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Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, 2021
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A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
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Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
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Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Stephen Jewson, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Maximiliano Sassi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 329–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, 2021
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Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.
Ryan M. Bright and Marianne T. Lund
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9887–9907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021, 2021
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Humans affect the reflective properties (albedo) of Earth's surface and the amount of solar energy that it absorbs, in turn affecting climate. In recent years, a variety of climate metrics have been applied to characterize albedo perturbations in terms of their
CO2-equivalenteffects, despite the lack of scientific consensus surrounding the methods behind them. We review these metrics, evaluate their (de)merits, provide guidance for future application, and suggest avenues for future research.
Marit Van Tiel, Anne F. Van Loon, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, 2021
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Glaciers can buffer streamflow during dry and warm periods, but under which circumstances can melt compensate precipitation deficits? Streamflow responses to warm and dry events were analyzed using
long-term observations of 50 glacierized catchments in Norway, Canada, and the European Alps. Region, timing of the event, relative glacier cover, and antecedent event conditions all affect the level of compensation during these events. This implies that glaciers do not compensate straightforwardly.
Na Zhao, Xinyi Dong, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Kengo Sudo, Daven Henze, Tom Kucsera, Yun Fat Lam, Mian Chin, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8637–8654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, 2021
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Black carbon acts as a strong climate forcer, especially in vulnerable pristine regions such as the Arctic. This work utilizes ensemble modeling results from the task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 to investigate the responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to various source emission reductions. East Asia contributed the most to Arctic black carbon. The response of Arctic temperature to black carbon was substantially more sensitive than the global average.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
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This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Claudia Canedo-Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 995–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, 2021
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Drought is a major natural hazard that causes large losses for farmers. This study evaluated drought severity based on a drought classification scheme using NDVI and LST, which was related to the ENSO anomalies. In addition, the spatial distribution of NDVI was associated with precipitation and air temperature at the local level. Our findings show that drought severity increases during El Niño years, and as a consequence the socio-economic drought risk of farmers will likely increase.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
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This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Benjamin Poschlod, Ralf Ludwig, and Jana Sillmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 983–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, 2021
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This study provides a homogeneous data set of 10-year rainfall return levels based on 50 simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 (CRCM5). In order to evaluate its quality, the return levels are compared to those of observation-based rainfall of 16 European countries from 32 different sources. The CRCM5 is able to capture the general spatial pattern of observed extreme precipitation, and also the intensity is reproduced in 77 % of the area for rainfall durations of 3 h and longer.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
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This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
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Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
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Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Anne F. Van Loon, Imogen Lester-Moseley, Melanie Rohse, Phil Jones, and Rosie Day
Geosci. Commun., 3, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-453-2020, 2020
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The Global South is vulnerable to natural hazards like floods and droughts, but creativity could support community preparedness. We mapped 267 papers that use a variety of art forms. They aim to raise the public's awareness or instigate adaptation by participants. In our pilot in South Africa, community members developed stories about preparing for future drought. This led to an imagination of future events, conversations about adaptation, intergenerational exchange, and increased awareness.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
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We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
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Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
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Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Naixin Fan, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Martin Thurner, Valerio Avitabile, Maurizio Santoro, Bernhard Ahrens, Ulrich Weber, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2517–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, 2020
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The turnover time of terrestrial carbon (τ) controls the global carbon cycle–climate feedback. In this study, we provide a new, updated ensemble of diagnostic terrestrial carbon turnover times and associated uncertainties on a global scale. Despite the large variation in both magnitude and spatial patterns of τ, we identified robust features in the spatial patterns of τ which could contribute to uncertainty reductions in future projections of the carbon cycle–climate feedback.
Doris E. Wendt, Anne F. Van Loon, John P. Bloomfield, and David M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4853–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, 2020
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Groundwater use changes the availability of groundwater, especially during droughts. This study investigates the impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts. A methodological framework is presented that was developed and applied to the UK. We identified an asymmetric impact of groundwater use on droughts, which highlights the relation between short-term and long-term strategies for sustainable groundwater use.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Bentje Brauns, Daniela Cuba, John P. Bloomfield, David M. Hannah, Christopher Jackson, Ben P. Marchant, Benedikt Heudorfer, Anne F. Van Loon, Hélène Bessière, Bo Thunholm, and Gerhard Schubert
Proc. IAHS, 383, 297–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, 2020
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In Europe, ca. 65% of drinking water is groundwater. Its replenishment depends on rainfall, but droughts may cause groundwater levels to fall below normal. These
groundwater droughtscan limit supply, making it crucial to understand their regional connection. The Groundwater Drought Initiative (GDI) assesses spatial patterns in historic—recent groundwater droughts across Europe for the first time. Using an example dataset, we describe the background to the GDI and its methodological approach.
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Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a...
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