Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194
29 Feb 2024
 | 29 Feb 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Dependence Models for Multi-Hazard-Events

Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Abstract. In recent years, the focus of research about natural hazards has turned from single-hazard studies to multi-hazard ones. While single hazards (like earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.) have been extensively studied in the past and many quantitative statements about intensities and severities are available, quantitative studies about multi-hazards and dependencies are still rare. This paper introduces new statistical models for the dependencies of cat-event processes of different hazard types based on Poisson-type event processes. Moreover, the models are applied to data for several natural hazard events from the Danube area in Europe. The analysis should help to bridge the gap between the more conceptual contributions to this discussion by providing empirical evidence on interactions on a large-scale region.

Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Status: open (until 25 Apr 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-194', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Mar 2024 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Georg Pflug, 10 Apr 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-194', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Apr 2024 reply
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Georg Pflug, 10 Apr 2024 reply
Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

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Short summary
Multi-hazard events can be devastating and there are indications that in such situations the exposed risk-bearers are affected more severely compared to single-hazard events. We present some statistical modeling approaches to determine possible interrelationships of hazards and tested them for the specific case of the countries within the Danube Region. We especially focused on the question whether certain hazards are more likely to occur due to preceding hazardous events.
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