Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 22 Feb 2021
Research article | 22 Feb 2021
Timescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of Guadeloupe
Gonéri Le Cozannet et al.
Related authors
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-271, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
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We quantify the influence of wave/wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres town-French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be a valuable tool to explore and characterize uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
G. Le Cozannet, M. Bagni, P. Thierry, C. Aragno, and E. Kouokam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1591–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1591-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1591-2014, 2014
P. Gehl, C. Quinet, G. Le Cozannet, E. Kouokam, and P. Thierry
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2409–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2409-2013, 2013
M. Neri, G. Le Cozannet, P. Thierry, C. Bignami, and J. Ruch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, 2013
G. Le Cozannet, M. Garcin, T. Bulteau, C. Mirgon, M. L. Yates, M. Méndez, A. Baills, D. Idier, and C. Oliveros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1209-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1209-2013, 2013
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-271, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave/wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres town-French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be a valuable tool to explore and characterize uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
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Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, 2020
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The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Letizia Anderlini, Enrico Serpelloni, Cristiano Tolomei, Paolo Marco De Martini, Giuseppe Pezzo, Adriano Gualandi, and Giorgio Spada
Solid Earth, 11, 1681–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1681-2020, 2020
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The Venetian Southern Alps (Italy) are located in a slowly deforming plate-boundary region where strong earthquakes occurred in the past even if seismological and geomorphological evidence is not conclusive about the specific thrust faults involved. In this study, we integrate and model different geodetic datasets of ground velocity to constrain the seismogenic potential of the studied faults, giving an example of the importance of using vertical geodetic data for seismic hazard estimates.
Fu Wang, Yongqiang Zong, Barbara Mauz, Jianfen Li, Jing Fang, Lizhu Tian, Yongsheng Chen, Zhiwen Shang, Xingyu Jiang, Giorgio Spada, and Daniele Melini
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 679–693, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-679-2020, 2020
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Our new Holocene sea level curve is not only different to previously published data but also different to global glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. We see that as soon as ice melting has ceased, local processes control shoreline migration and coast evolution. This indicates that more emphasis should be placed on regional coast and sea-level change modelling under a global future of rising sea level as local government needs more specific and effective advice to deal with coastal flooding.
Long Jiang, Theo Gerkema, Déborah Idier, Aimée B. A. Slangen, and Karline Soetaert
Ocean Sci., 16, 307–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, 2020
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A model downscaling approach is used to investigate the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on local tides. Results indicate that SLR induces larger increases in tidal amplitude and stronger nonlinear tidal distortion in the bay compared to the adjacent shelf sea. SLR can also change shallow-water tidal asymmetry and influence the direction and magnitude of bed-load sediment transport. The model downscaling approach is widely applicable for local SLR projections in estuaries and coastal bays.
Giorgio Spada and Daniele Melini
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5055–5075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5055-2019, 2019
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Accurate modeling of the complex physical interactions between solid Earth, oceans, and ice masses in response to deglaciation processes is of paramount importance in climate change and geodesy, since ongoing effects of the melting of Late Pleistocene ice sheets still affect present-day observations of sea-level change, uplift rates, and gravity field. In this paper, we present SELEN4, an open-source code that can compute a broad range of physical predictions for a given deglaciation model.
Michaël Ablain, Benoît Meyssignac, Lionel Zawadzki, Rémi Jugier, Aurélien Ribes, Giorgio Spada, Jerôme Benveniste, Anny Cazenave, and Nicolas Picot
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019
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A description of the uncertainties in the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) record has been performed; 25 years of satellite altimetry data were used to estimate the error variance–covariance matrix for the GMSL record to derive its confidence envelope. Then a least square approach was used to estimate the GMSL trend and acceleration uncertainties over any time periods. A GMSL trend of 3.35 ± 0.4 mm/yr and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12 ± 0.07 mm/yr² have been found within a 90 % confidence level.
Alexandre Nicolae Lerma, Thomas Bulteau, Sylvain Elineau, François Paris, Paul Durand, Brice Anselme, and Rodrigo Pedreros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-207-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-207-2018, 2018
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In a context of rising sea levels linked to global warming, the issue of marine flood risk is becoming central to the management of low-lying coasts in the decades to come. The CRISSIS research program aims to propose a multidisciplinary, integrated and operational approach of marine flood risk, involving geographers, modellers, geomaticians and specialists in risk and crisis management. This work is dedicated to understand and simulate the hazard through historical and statistic approaches.
Luisa Perini, Lorenzo Calabrese, Paolo Luciani, Marco Olivieri, Gaia Galassi, and Giorgio Spada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2271–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2271-2017, 2017
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The Emilia-Romagna coastal plain is a low-land, highly urbanised area that will be significantly impacted by climate change. To plan adequate mitigation measures, reliable sea-level scenarios are needed. Here we suggests a method for evaluating the combined effects of sea-level rise and land subsidence in the year 2100, in terms of the increase in floodable areas during sea storms. The results allow for a regional assessment and indicate a significant local variability in the factors involved.
J. P. Naulin, D. Moncoulon, S. Le Roy, R. Pedreros, D. Idier, and C. Oliveros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 195–207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016, 2016
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A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. It aims to identify the potential flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the losses related to Xynthia storm surge, which was used for the model's calibration.
T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1135–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015, 2015
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Extreme value analyses of sea-level using tide-gauge measurements usually suffer from limited effective duration of observation which can result in large uncertainties, especially when outliers are present. To tackle this issue, a Bayesian MCMC method is developed integrating historical data in extreme sea-level analyses. A real case study shows a significant improvement in return values estimation and the usefulness of the Bayesian framework to predict future annual exceedance probabilities.
G. Le Cozannet, M. Bagni, P. Thierry, C. Aragno, and E. Kouokam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1591–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1591-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1591-2014, 2014
D. Idier and A. Falqués
Adv. Geosci., 39, 55–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-39-55-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-39-55-2014, 2014
P. Gehl, C. Quinet, G. Le Cozannet, E. Kouokam, and P. Thierry
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2409–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2409-2013, 2013
M. Neri, G. Le Cozannet, P. Thierry, C. Bignami, and J. Ruch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, 2013
G. Le Cozannet, M. Garcin, T. Bulteau, C. Mirgon, M. L. Yates, M. Méndez, A. Baills, D. Idier, and C. Oliveros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1209-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1209-2013, 2013
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Tsunami heights and limits in 1945 along the Makran coast estimated from testimony gathered 7 decades later in Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara
Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)
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The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)
Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)
Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge data
Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: chasing the Supercyclone Amphan
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Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches
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Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3085-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3085-2021, 2021
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The study summarizes historical accounts, eyewitness accounts and newspaper items to report the impact of the 1945 tsunami along the Makran coast of Pakistan. A field survey conducted in Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara quantifies inundation parameters in the three cities, using the landmarks reported in eyewitness accounts and newspaper items. The quantification of runup and inundation extents is based either on the field survey or on old maps.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
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Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
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Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sang-Guk Yum, Hsi-Hsien Wei, and Sung-Hwan Jang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2611–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, 2021
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Developed statistical models to predict the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surge-induced typhoons. Various probability distribution models were applied to find the best fitting to empirical storm-surge data.
Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, and Sazzad Hossain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, 2021
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The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, 2021
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This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021
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In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Takenori Shimozono
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, 2021
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Tsunamis are a major threat to low-lying coastal communities. Suddenly generated from their sources in deep water, tsunamis occasionally undergo tremendous amplification in shallow water. There is a need for efficient ways of predicting coastal tsunami transformation during different disaster management phases. The study proposed a novel and rigorous method based on kernel convolution for fast prediction of onshore tsunami waveforms from the observed/simulated wave data away from the coast.
Elias de Korte, Bruno Castelle, and Eric Tellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, 2021
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We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Riccardo Alvise Mel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-186, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The present study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Venice lagoon if a partial use of the Mo.S.E. system (i.e., by closing the Lido inlet only) will be adopted. A linear relationship was obtained between the tidal range of the seaward tide signal and the reduction of the sea level peak at Venice, Burano and Chioggia. Tidal period and wind have been accounted for. Two third of the flood events can be effectively faced by such operation under relative sea level rise scenarios up to +0.4 m.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
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Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, 2021
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Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe'eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1703–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, 2021
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Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contributed to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1667–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, 2021
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A case study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, Mattias J. A. Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-118, 2021
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High coastal total water levels (TWL) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between three main components of the TWL (waves, tides and surges) at the UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 hours before high tide.
Myung‑Seok Kim, Seung‑Buhm Woo, Hyunmin Eom, and Sung Hyup You
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-126, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We present spatial and temporal trends of meteotsunami occurrence in the eastern Yellow Sea over the past ten years (2010–2019). In this study, the vulnerable conditions of the pressure disturbance (intensity, occurrence rate, and propagation) were be found on the classified 34 meteotsunami events. It is expected that the conditions can be applied to the current meteotsunami monitoring system in the Yellow Sea as specific guidelines and recommendations for the monitoring system operator.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-58, 2021
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This study deals with the December 5, 2018 tsunami in New Caledonia and Vanuatu (southwestern Pacific) triggered by a magnitude Mw 7.5 earthquake having occurred southeast of Maré, Loyalty Archipelago and widely felt in the region. Numerical modelling results of the tsunami using a uniform slip model on a rectangular fault plane compared to real tide gauge records and testimonies are globally well correlated, especially in far-field locations.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimilano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-70, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We present variable resolution boundaries based on Central Voronoi Tessellations (CVT) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geocell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk-loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, 2021
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Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, 2021
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, 2021
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Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021
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In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García-Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake/landslide related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry and long waves created by atmospheric disturbances. However, we find that neither mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, 2021
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020
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Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, 2020
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We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic
generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, 2020
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The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020
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Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-311, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
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This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, 2020
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This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
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Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Mateusz C. Strzelecki and Marek W. Jaskólski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, 2020
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To date, the effects of tsunamis have been mainly reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones. Rare records of polar tsunamis may partly reflect the very low population densities, the short written history, and little coastal geological work focused on the sedimentary record of palaeotsunamis. We report the results of the field survey of post-tsunami damage in the Nuugaatsiaq settlement in Greenland, which on 17 June 2017 was hit by three tsunami waves triggered by a landslide.
Philip M. Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan A. Talke, Mario Giampieri, and Kytt MacManus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2415–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, 2020
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The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
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We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, 2020
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In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, 2020
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The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
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Short summary
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of...
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