Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021

Research article 17 Dec 2021

Research article | 17 Dec 2021

Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation

Dimitra M. Salmanidou et al.

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Cited articles

AECOM: Modeling of potential tsunami inundation limits and run-up, Report for the capital region district, 60242933, Victoria, BC, Canada, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Atwater, B. and Hemphill-Haley, E.: Recurrence Intervals for Great Earthquakes of the Past 3,500 Years at Northeastern Willapa Bay, Washington, USGS professional paper, 1576, Western Region, Menlo Park, Calif., 1997. a
Beck, J. and Guillas, S.: Sequential Design with Mutual Information for Computer Experiments (MICE): Emulation of a Tsunami Model, SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 4, 739–766, https://doi.org/10.1137/140989613, 2016. a, b, c, d
Behrens, J. and Dias, F.: New computational methods in tsunami science, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140 382, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0382, 2015. a
Bilek, S. L. and Lay, T.: Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes, Geosphere, 14, 1468–1500, https://doi.org/10.1130/GES01608.1, 2018. a
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The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
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