Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2021
| 17 Dec 2021
Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation
Dimitra M. Salmanidou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
Joakim Beck
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Peter Pazak
Aon Impact Forecasting – Earthquake Model Development, London, United Kingdom
Earth Science Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
Serge Guillas
Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
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Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a...
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