Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021

Research article 17 Dec 2021

Research article | 17 Dec 2021

Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation

Dimitra M. Salmanidou et al.

Data sets

The GEBCO_2019 Grid - a continuous terrain model of the global oceans and land GEBCO Bathymetric Compilation Group https://doi.org/10.5285/836f016a-33be-6ddc-e053-6c86abc0788e

1 arc-second for the United States and 3 arc-seconds for global coverage NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) https://doi.org/10.5066/F7PR7TFT

Bathymetric Data Viewer NOAA National Geophysical Data Centre https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/bathymetry/

Model code and software

MOGP emulator The Alan Turing Institute, E. Daub, O. Strickson, and N. Barlow https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/mogp-emulato

Volna I. Reguly, D. Giles https://github.com/reguly/volna

Volna D. Giles https://github.com/DanGiles/volna

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Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
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