Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Research article
 | 
17 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 17 Dec 2021

Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation

Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas

Data sets

The GEBCO_2019 Grid - a continuous terrain model of the global oceans and land GEBCO Bathymetric Compilation Group https://doi.org/10.5285/836f016a-33be-6ddc-e053-6c86abc0788e

1 arc-second for the United States and 3 arc-seconds for global coverage NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) https://doi.org/10.5066/F7PR7TFT

Bathymetric Data Viewer NOAA National Geophysical Data Centre https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/bathymetry/

Model code and software

MOGP emulator The Alan Turing Institute, E. Daub, O. Strickson, and N. Barlow https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/mogp-emulato

Volna I. Reguly, D. Giles https://github.com/reguly/volna

Volna D. Giles https://github.com/DanGiles/volna

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Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
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