Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Distribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coasts
Julia Rulent
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Ocean Sciences, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, United Kingdom
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Lucy M. Bricheno
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom
J. A. Mattias Green
School of Ocean Sciences, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, United Kingdom
Ivan D. Haigh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Huw Lewis
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Related authors
Dale Partridge, Ségolène Berthou, Rebecca Millington, James Clark, Lucy Bricheno, Juan Manuel Castillo, Julia Rulent, and Huw Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton blooms are governed by the availability of light and nutrients, both of which are affected by mixing in the upper layers of the ocean, which is impacted by wave activity on the surface. Most numerical ocean models estimate waves through a parameterisation, here we explicitly resolve waves through a coupled wave model to examine the impact on the strength and timing of phytoplankton blooms, particular during storms when wave activity is elevated.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Stephen E. Darby, Ivan D. Haigh, Melissa Wood, Bui Duong, Tien Le Thuy Du, Thao Phuong Bui, Justin Sheffield, Hal Voepel, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations to see what changes have been occurring to Mekong and Red River flows, 1970–2019, due to changes in tropical cyclone (TC)-linked precipitation. Results suggest that the highest river flows in multiple sub-catchments have been increasing over time, with coastal zones most intensely affected due to the combination of TC track and wet soils from prior rainfall. Climate change may exacerbate this TC-linked risk in the future making it a topic of strategic importance.
Dale Partridge, Ségolène Berthou, Rebecca Millington, James Clark, Lucy Bricheno, Juan Manuel Castillo, Julia Rulent, and Huw Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton blooms are governed by the availability of light and nutrients, both of which are affected by mixing in the upper layers of the ocean, which is impacted by wave activity on the surface. Most numerical ocean models estimate waves through a parameterisation, here we explicitly resolve waves through a coupled wave model to examine the impact on the strength and timing of phytoplankton blooms, particular during storms when wave activity is elevated.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Thomas P. Collings, Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop, Conor Murphy, Ivan D. Haigh, Paul D. Bates, and Niall D. Quinn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1138, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Determining the threshold above which events are considered extreme is an important consideration for many modelling procedures. We propose an extension of an existing data-driven method for automatic threshold selection. We test our approach on tide gauge records, and show that it outperforms existing techniques. This helps improve estimates of extreme sea levels, and we hope other researchers will use this method for other natural hazards.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Philip L. Woodworth, J. A. Mattias Green, Richard D. Ray, and John M. Huthnance
Ocean Sci., 17, 809–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-809-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This special issue marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Liverpool Tidal Institute (LTI). The preface gives a history of the LTI founding and of its first two directors. It also gives an overview of LTI research on tides. Summaries are given of the 26 papers in the special issue. Their topics could be thought of as providing a continuation of the research first undertaken at the LTI. They provide an interesting snapshot of work on tides now being made by groups around the world.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Simon J. Dadson, Eleanor Blyth, Douglas Clark, Helen Davies, Richard Ellis, Huw Lewis, Toby Marthews, and Ponnambalan Rameshwaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flood prediction helps national and regional planning and real-time flood response. In this study we apply and test a new way to make wide area predictions of flooding which can be combined with weather forecasting and climate models to give faster predictions of flooded areas. By simplifying the detailed floodplain topography we can keep track of the fraction of land flooded for hazard mapping purposes. When tested this approach accurately reproduces benchmark datasets for England.
J. A. Mattias Green and David T. Pugh
Ocean Sci., 16, 1337–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1337-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1337-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Bardsey Island lies 3 km offshore the western end of the Llŷn Peninsula in northwestern Wales. However, the island is too small to show up in tidal databases based on satellite data, and thus they may not provide the correct local tides. Our new sea level data shows that the tidal currents in the satellite databases are one-third of the observed currents. Any investigation of other coastal activities, e.g. renewable energy installations, must use local observations to get the correct tides.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Cited articles
Ardhuin, F., Roland, A., Dumas, F., Bennis, A. C., Sentchev, A., Forget, P.,
Wolf, J., Girard, F., Osuna, P., and Benoit, M.: Numerical wave modeling in
conditions with strong currents: Dissipation,refraction, and relative wind,
J. Phys. Oceanogr., 42, 2101–2120,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-11-0220.1, 2012. a
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P.,
Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Non-linear interaction modulates global
extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts, Nat.
Commun., 11, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5, 2020.
a
Bertin, X., Li, K., Roland, A., and Bidlot, J. R.: The contribution of
short-waves in storm surges: Two case studies in the Bay of Biscay,
Cont. Shelf Res., 96, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.01.005, 2015. a
Chartteron, J., Clarke, C., Daly, E., Dawks, S., Elding, C., Fenn, T., Hick,
E., Miller, J., Morris, J., Ogunyoye, F., and Salado, R.: The costs and
impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-costs-and-impacts-of-the-winter-2013-to-2014-floods (last access: 25 February 2021),
2016. a
Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, in:
Springer series in statistic, Springer‐Verlag, London, UK, 2001. a
Committee on Climate Change: Managing the land in a changing climate
(Chapter 4), Progress report 2013, 70–91, available at:
http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/ASC-2013-Chap4_singles_2.pdf (last access: 28 May 2020),
2013. a
Cox, R., Jahn, K. L., Watkins, O. G., and Cox, P.: Extraordinary boulder
transport by storm waves (west of Ireland, winter 2013–2014), and criteria
for analysing coastal boulder deposits, Earth-Sci. Rev., 177,
623–636, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.12.014, 2018. a
Cullen, M. J.: unified-forecast climate-model, Meteorological office, 122,
88–94, 1993. a
Dangendorf, S., Arns, A., Pinto, J. G., Ludwig, P., and Jensen, J.: The
exceptional influence of storm “Xaver” on design water levels in the German
Bight, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 054001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054001, 2016. a
De Dominicis, M., Wolf, J., Jevrejeva, S., Zheng, P., and Hu, Z.: Future
Interactions Between Sea Level Rise, Tides, and Storm Surges in the World's
Largest Urban Area, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087002,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087002, 2020. a
Del Río, L., Plomaritis, T. A., Benavente, J., Valladares, M., and
Ribera, P.: Establishing storm thresholds for the Spanish Gulf of
Cádiz coast, Geomorphology, 143–144, 13–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.04.048, 2012. a
Dhoop, T. and Mason, T.: Spatial characteristics and duration of extreme wave
events around the English coastline, Journal of Marine Science and
Engineering, 6, 14, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010014, 2018. a, b
Flather, R. A.: Existing operational oceanography, Coastal Eng., 41, 13–40,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3839(00)00025-9, 2000. a
Graham, J. A., O'Dea, E., Holt, J., Polton, J., Hewitt, H. T., Furner, R., Guihou, K., Brereton, A., Arnold, A., Wakelin, S., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., and Mayorga Adame, C. G.: AMM15: a new high-resolution NEMO configuration for operational simulation of the European north-west shelf, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, 2018. a
Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Gallop, S. L., Loehr, H., Nicholls, R. J.,
Horsburgh, K., Brown, J. M., and Bradshaw, E.: A user-friendly database of
coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014, Sci. Data, 2,
1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.21, 2015. a
Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Wahl, T., Ozsoy, O., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, J. M.,
Horsburgh, K., and Gouldby, B.: Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea
level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK, Sci.
Data, 3, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.107, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f
Haigh, I. D., Ozsoy, O., Wadey, M. P., Nicholls, R. J., Gallop, S. L., Wahl,
T., and Brown, J. M.: An improved database of coastal flooding in the United
Kingdom from 1915 to 2016, Sci. Data, 4, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.100, 2017. a
Home Office: National Risk Register Of Civil Emergencies 2017 edition,
Tech. rep., available at: http://www.official-documents.gov.uk (last access: 15 October 2019), 2017. a
Horsburgh, K., Rennie, A., and Palmer, M.: Impacts of climate change on
sea-level rise relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK,
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership, Scotland's Marine Assessment 2020 – Scottish government, Scotland, 116–131,
2020. a
Horsburgh, K. J. and Wilson, C.: Tide-surge interaction and its role in the
distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 112, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004033, 2007. a, b, c, d
Idier, D., Bertin, X., Thompson, P., and Pickering, M. D.: Interactions
Between Mean Sea Level, Tide, Surge, Waves and Flooding: Mechanisms and
Contributions to Sea Level Variations at the Coast, Surv. Geophys.,
40, 1603–1630, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09549-5, 2019. a, b, c
Janjić, J., Gallagher, S., and Dias, F.: Case study of the winter
2013/2014 extreme wave events off the west coast of Ireland, Adv.
Sci. Res., 15, 145–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-145-2018, 2018. a
Kandrot, S., Farrell, E., and Devoy, R.: The morphological response of
foredunes at a breached barrier system to winter 2013/2014 storms on the
southwest coast of Ireland, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 41,
2123–2136, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4003, 2016. a
Khanal, S., Ridder, N., de Vries, H., Terink, W., and van den Hurk, B.: Storm
Surge and Extreme River Discharge: A Compound Event Analysis Using Ensemble
Impact Modeling, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00224, 2019. a
Kirezci, E., Young, I. R., Ranasinghe, R., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lincke,
D., and Hinkel, J.: Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and
resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 10, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6, 2020. a
Lawless, M., Hird, M., Rodger, D., Gouldby, B., Tozer, N., Pullen, T., Saulter,
A., and Horsburgh, K.: Coastal flood forecasting – a Good practice
framework, p. 72, available at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/570156/Coastal_flood_forecasting___a_good_practice_framework_-_report.pdf (last access: 16 April 2020),
2016. a
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A., Graham, J., Bush, M., Siddorn, J., Palmer, T., Lock, A., Edwards, J., Bricheno, L., Martínez-de la Torre, A., and Clark, J.: The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019a. a, b, c, d
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Graham, J., Saulter, A., Bornemann, J., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Harris, C., Pearson, D., Ramsdale, S., Martínez-de la Torre, A., Bricheno, L., Blyth, E., Bell, V. A., Davies, H., Marthews, T. R., O'Neill, C., Rumbold, H., O'Dea, E., Brereton, A., Guihou, K., Hines, A., Butenschon, M., Dadson, S. J., Palmer, T., Holt, J., Reynard, N., Best, M., Edwards, J., and Siddorn, J.: The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018. a, b
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Siddorn, J., King, R. R., Tonani, M., Saulter, A., Sykes, P., Pequignet, A.-C., Weedon, G. P., Palmer, T., Staneva, J., and Bricheno, L.: Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?, Ocean Sci., 15, 669–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, 2019b. a, b
Lewis, M. J., Palmer, T., Hashemi, R., Robins, P., Saulter, A., Brown, J.,
Lewis, H., and Neill, S.: Wave-tide interaction modulates nearshore wave
height, Ocean Dynam., 69, 367–384, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-01245-z,
2019c. a
Li, J. G.: Global transport on a spherical multiple-cell grid, Mon.
Weather Rev., 139, 1536–1555, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3196.1, 2011. a
Lyddon, C. E., Brown, J. M., Leonardi, N., Saulter, A., and Plater, A. J.:
Quantification of the Uncertainty in Coastal Storm Hazard Predictions Due to
Wave-Current Interaction and Wind Forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
14576–14585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086123, 2019. a, b
Madec, G. and the NEMO Team: NEMO Ocean Engine, Note du Póle de
modélisation, 1–332, 2008. a
Marcos, M., Rohmer, J., Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Le Cozannet, G.,
and Amores, A.: Increased Extreme Coastal Water Levels Due to the Combined
Action of Storm Surges and Wind Waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
4356–4364, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082599, 2019. a
Met Éireann: Exceptional Weather Events – Winter 2013/2014, Irish Meteorological Service, available at: https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/WinterStorms13_14.pdf (last access: 7 February 2021), 2014. a
Moftakhari, H., Schubert, J. E., AghaKouchak, A., Matthew, R. A., and Sanders,
B. F.: Linking statistical and hydrodynamic modeling for compound flood
hazard assessment in tidal channels and estuaries, Adv. Water
Resour., 128, 28–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.009, 2019. a
National Oceanography Centre & Environment Agency: UK Tide Gauge Network, BODC [data set], available at: https://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/hosted_data_systems/sea_level/uk_tide_gauge_network/, last access: 11 June 2020. a
Nidzieko, N. J.: Tidal asymmetry in estuaries with mixed semidiurnal/diurnal
tides, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005864, 2010. a
Priestley, M. D., Pinto, J. G., Dacre, H. F., and Shaffrey, L. C.: The role of
cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014, Weather, 72,
187–192, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3025, 2017. a, b, c
Rossiter, J. R.: Interaction Between Tide and Surge in the Thames,
Geophys. J. Roy. Astr. S., 6, 29–53,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1961.tb02960.x, 1961. a
Rulent, J.:
Dataset Manuscript: Coastal High Water Level Distribution During Storms, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4701064, 2021. a
Sánchez-Arcilla, A., García-León, M., Gracia, V., Devoy, R.,
Stanica, A., and Gault, J.: Managing coastal environments under climate
change: Pathways to adaptation, Sci. Total Environ., 572,
1336–1352, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.124, 2016. a
Sibley, A., Cox, D., and Titley, H.: Coastal flooding in england and wales
from atlantic and north sea storms during the 2013/2014 winter, Weather, 70,
62–70, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2471, 2015. a, b
Siddorn, J. R., Good, S. A., Harris, C. M., Lewis, H. W., Maksymczuk, J., Martin, M. J., and Saulter, A.: Research priorities in support of ocean monitoring and forecasting at the Met Office, Ocean Sci., 12, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, 2016. a
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Evans, B. R., Tempest, J. A., and Möller, I.:
Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves
and coastal impacts, Earth-Sci. Rev., 146, 120–145,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.04.002, 2015. a
Stevens, A. J., Clarke, D., and Nicholls, R. J.: Trends in reported flooding
in the UK: 1884–2013, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 50–63,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.950581, 2016. a
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M. M., Allen, S. K.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.: Climate
change 2013 the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the
fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,
Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution
to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 9781107057, 1–1535, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013. a, b
Thorne, C.: Geographies of UK flooding in 2013/4, Geogr. J., 180,
297–309, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12122, 2014. a, b, c, d
Tolman, H. L. and Iii, W.: User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH
III R version 4.18, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Tech. note number 316, U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA, 2014. a
Valcke, S., Craig, T., and Coquart, L.: OASIS3-MCT User Guide, Tech. Rep.
May, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France, 2015. a
Valiente, N. G., Saulter, A., Edwards, J. M., Lewis, H. W., Sanchez, J. M.,
Bruciaferri, D., Bunney, C., and Siddorn, J.: The impact of wave model
source terms and coupling strategies to rapidly developing waves across the
north‐west european shelf during extreme events, Journal of Marine Science
and Engineering, 9, 403, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9040403, 2021. a
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Jackson, L. P., and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of extreme
sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat.
Commun., 9, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018. a
Wadey, M. P., Haigh, I. D., and Brown, J. M.: A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record, Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014.
a
Williams, J. A. and Horsburgh, K. J.: Evaluation and comparison of the
operational Bristol Channel Model storm surge suite, National Oceanography
Centre Research & Consultancy Report No. 38,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004, 2013.
a
Wolf, J.: Coastal flooding: Impacts of coupled wave-surge-tide models,
Natural Hazards, 49, 241–260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9316-5, 2009. a
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint