Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Mar 2020
Research article |
| 24 Mar 2020
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
Scott A. Stephens
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 11 115, Hamilton 3251, New Zealand
Robert G. Bell
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 11 115, Hamilton 3251, New Zealand
Ivan D. Haigh
Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
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Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
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We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
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High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
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The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
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When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Robert Marsh, Ivan D. Haigh, Stuart A. Cunningham, Mark E. Inall, Marie Porter, and Ben I. Moat
Ocean Sci., 13, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, 2017
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To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
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Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
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When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
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The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
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We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
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We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
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This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
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Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
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On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
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Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1113, 2023
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Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice-Côte d'Azur airport (Nice, France) that has been built on reclaimed area and found that it subsides from 16 mm/yr in the 1990s to 8 mm/yr today. A continuous remotely monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps and their contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of a part of the airport platform.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
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This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-275, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-275, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In order to address existing challenges around the modelling of coastal flooding on large spatial scales, we developed a validated modelling framework that simulates flooding for the entire German Baltic Sea coast taking coastal protection into account. We simulate storm surges with and without sea-level rise and confirm that the German Baltic Sea coast is highly exposed to coastal flooding. We emphasize the importance of current plans to update coastal protection schemes in the study region.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
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Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
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Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
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Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
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The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
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Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
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Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
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We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
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Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
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Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
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Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
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The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
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Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
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Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, 2022
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Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
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A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
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Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
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This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, 2022
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The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, 2022
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The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, 2022
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This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, 2022
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Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-95, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Here we use a high resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, and corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that seeveral factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
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Short summary
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that...
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