Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 23 Dec 2020
Research article | 23 Dec 2020
Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study
Jan-Victor Björkqvist et al.
Related authors
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Siim Pärt, Victor Alari, Sander Rikka, Elisa Lindgren, and Laura Tuomi
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-62, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for OS
Short summary
Short summary
Waves that travel faster than the wind are called swell. Our study presents wave model statistics of swell waves in the Baltic Sea, since such statistics have not yet been reliably compiled. Our results confirms that long, high, and persistent swell is absent in the Baltic Sea. We found that the dependency between swell and wind waves differ in the open sea compared to nearshore areas. These distinctions are important for studies into how waves interact with the atmosphere and the sea bottom.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Of three Archimedean copulas, the Gumbel copula quantified the dependence of the variables best.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Heidi Pettersson, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 15, 1469–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present wave buoy measurements from the Finnish archipelago. The properties of the waves inside the archipelago differed from waves in the open sea because of the sheltering effect of the islands. In the archipelago the highest single wave was, on average, only 1.58 times the significant wave height, which is lower than what is predicted by previous research. A more robust way to calculate the wave frequency in the complex archipelago conditions was proposed.
Ulpu Leijala, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Milla M. Johansson, Havu Pellikka, Lauri Laakso, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2785–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal flooding risks based on the combined effect of sea level variations and wind-generated waves are estimated for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the two case study locations in the Helsinki archipelago leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty of the associated scenarios contribute to the flooding risks notably in 2100.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Laura Tuomi, Niko Tollman, Antti Kangas, Heidi Pettersson, Riikka Marjamaa, Hannu Jokinen, and Carl Fortelius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1653–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the highest wave events in the Baltic Sea using wave measurements available since 1996. Going beyond classifying them based solely on the maximum wave height, we found that they can be divided into two groups based on, for example, the length of the storm. Two of the severest storms show different behaviour, with the most recent (in 2017) being the longest on record. We hope this more in-depth description of the storms will aid in the issuing of warnings for extreme wave conditions.
J.-V. Björkqvist, H. Pettersson, L. Laakso, K. K. Kahma, H. Jokinen, and P. Kosloff
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 17–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We identified a previously unknown artefact in the Datawell DWR-G4 wave buoy, which measures the GPS signal to resolve surface water waves. The artefact interferes with the part of the measurements containing information about the longer waves and must be removed to obtain accurate readings. We presented a correction method and found it to be accurate based on a comparison to measurements from a larger wave buoy that measures the movements of the device without using the GPS signal.
Tuomas Kärnä, Patrik Ljungemyr, Saeed Falahat, Ida Ringgaard, Lars Axell, Vasily Korabel, Jens Murawski, Ilja Maljutenko, Anja Lindenthal, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Svetlana Verjovkina, Ina Lorkowski, Priidik Lagemaa, Jun She, Laura Tuomi, Adam Nord, and Vibeke Huess
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5731–5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, 2021
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We present Nemo-Nordic 2.0, a novel operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. We validate the model's performance against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as sea ice charts. The skill analysis demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-67, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Siim Pärt, Victor Alari, Sander Rikka, Elisa Lindgren, and Laura Tuomi
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-62, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for OS
Short summary
Short summary
Waves that travel faster than the wind are called swell. Our study presents wave model statistics of swell waves in the Baltic Sea, since such statistics have not yet been reliably compiled. Our results confirms that long, high, and persistent swell is absent in the Baltic Sea. We found that the dependency between swell and wind waves differ in the open sea compared to nearshore areas. These distinctions are important for studies into how waves interact with the atmosphere and the sea bottom.
Antti Westerlund, Elina Miettunen, Laura Tuomi, and Pekka Alenius
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-56, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for OS
Short summary
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Water exchange through the Åland Sea, Baltic Sea, affects the conditions in the neighbouring Gulf of Bothnia. Pathways and variability of flows were studied with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. Our analysis showed a northward transport in the deep layer and net transport towards south in the surface layer. While on the southern edge of the Åland Sea the primary route of deep water exchange is through Lågskär Deep, still some deep water bypasses it to the Åland Sea.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-13, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society or environment. Events considered are major events in the region including wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. Increase is expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms and a decrease for cold spells and severe ice winters.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Of three Archimedean copulas, the Gumbel copula quantified the dependence of the variables best.
Jari Walden, Liisa Pirjola, Tuomas Laurila, Juha Hatakka, Heidi Pettersson, Tuomas Walden, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Harri Nordlund, Toivo Truuts, Miika Meretoja, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1086, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
Short summary
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Ship emissions play an important role in deposition of gaseous compounds and nanoparticles affecting climate, human health especially at coastal areas, and eutrophication. Results by micrometeorological methods showed that ship emissions were mainly responsible for deposition of Ntot, whereas they accounted a minor proportion for CO2 deposition. Uncertainty analysis applied to the results of the fluxes and fuel sulfur contents of the ships demonstrate reliability of the results.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Heidi Pettersson, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 15, 1469–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present wave buoy measurements from the Finnish archipelago. The properties of the waves inside the archipelago differed from waves in the open sea because of the sheltering effect of the islands. In the archipelago the highest single wave was, on average, only 1.58 times the significant wave height, which is lower than what is predicted by previous research. A more robust way to calculate the wave frequency in the complex archipelago conditions was proposed.
Robinson Hordoir, Lars Axell, Anders Höglund, Christian Dieterich, Filippa Fransner, Matthias Gröger, Ye Liu, Per Pemberton, Semjon Schimanke, Helen Andersson, Patrik Ljungemyr, Petter Nygren, Saeed Falahat, Adam Nord, Anette Jönsson, Iréne Lake, Kristofer Döös, Magnus Hieronymus, Heiner Dietze, Ulrike Löptien, Ivan Kuznetsov, Antti Westerlund, Laura Tuomi, and Jari Haapala
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Nemo-Nordic is a regional ocean model based on a community code (NEMO). It covers the Baltic and the North Sea area and is used as a forecast model by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. It is also used as a research tool by scientists of several countries to study, for example, the effects of climate change on the Baltic and North seas. Using such a model permits us to understand key processes in this coastal ecosystem and how such processes will change in a future climate.
Ulpu Leijala, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Milla M. Johansson, Havu Pellikka, Lauri Laakso, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2785–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal flooding risks based on the combined effect of sea level variations and wind-generated waves are estimated for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the two case study locations in the Helsinki archipelago leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty of the associated scenarios contribute to the flooding risks notably in 2100.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Laura Tuomi, Niko Tollman, Antti Kangas, Heidi Pettersson, Riikka Marjamaa, Hannu Jokinen, and Carl Fortelius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1653–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the highest wave events in the Baltic Sea using wave measurements available since 1996. Going beyond classifying them based solely on the maximum wave height, we found that they can be divided into two groups based on, for example, the length of the storm. Two of the severest storms show different behaviour, with the most recent (in 2017) being the longest on record. We hope this more in-depth description of the storms will aid in the issuing of warnings for extreme wave conditions.
Vasco M. N. C. S. Vieira, Pavel Jurus, Emanuela Clementi, Heidi Pettersson, and Marcos Mateus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J.-V. Björkqvist, H. Pettersson, L. Laakso, K. K. Kahma, H. Jokinen, and P. Kosloff
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 17–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We identified a previously unknown artefact in the Datawell DWR-G4 wave buoy, which measures the GPS signal to resolve surface water waves. The artefact interferes with the part of the measurements containing information about the longer waves and must be removed to obtain accurate readings. We presented a correction method and found it to be accurate based on a comparison to measurements from a larger wave buoy that measures the movements of the device without using the GPS signal.
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3629–3644, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3629-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3629-2021, 2021
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
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Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
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Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
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Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sang-Guk Yum, Hsi-Hsien Wei, and Sung-Hwan Jang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2611–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, 2021
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Developed statistical models to predict the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surge-induced typhoons. Various probability distribution models were applied to find the best fitting to empirical storm-surge data.
Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, and Sazzad Hossain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, 2021
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The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, 2021
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This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021
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In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-220, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge and waves. Wave’s effects are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth, and caused earlier flooding, than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-224, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In this study it is examined the characteristics of a destructive marine storm on the strongly inhabited coastal area of Naples Gulf, along the Italian coasts of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage on urban furniture and port infrastructures.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje Van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-211, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. saltmarshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-184, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide-gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. The pattern of the extreme events around the UK coast is very similar in the model to what we know from the tide gauges.
Takenori Shimozono
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, 2021
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Tsunamis are a major threat to low-lying coastal communities. Suddenly generated from their sources in deep water, tsunamis occasionally undergo tremendous amplification in shallow water. There is a need for efficient ways of predicting coastal tsunami transformation during different disaster management phases. The study proposed a novel and rigorous method based on kernel convolution for fast prediction of onshore tsunami waveforms from the observed/simulated wave data away from the coast.
Elias de Korte, Bruno Castelle, and Eric Tellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, 2021
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We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
Changbin Lim, Taekon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-180, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study aimed to quantitatively identify the erosion risk. Methods for identifying potentials were proposed, and by introducing a encroachment accumulation curve presenting the erosion consequence, the corresponding erosion risk was calculated. The validity of the method for verifying the risk was examined to the eastern coast of South Korea. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature and plays a key role in identifying methods that prevent erosion.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
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Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, 2021
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Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe'eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1703–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, 2021
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Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contributed to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1667–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, 2021
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A case study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-63, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The potential of large magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, 2021
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Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, 2021
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, 2021
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Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
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Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021
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In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García-Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake/landslide related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry and long waves created by atmospheric disturbances. However, we find that neither mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, 2021
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, 2020
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We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic
generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, 2020
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The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020
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Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-311, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
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This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, 2020
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This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
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Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such...
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