Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 23 Dec 2020
| 23 Dec 2020
Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study
Jan-Victor Björkqvist
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Sander Rikka
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Victor Alari
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Aarne Männik
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Laura Tuomi
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Heidi Pettersson
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Mari Savela, Heidi Pettersson, Victor Alari, and Alf Norkko
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Strong motions caused by surface waves can set the material at the bottom in motion. How strong the wave motions need to be depends on the bottom type, for example mud or sand. We estimated how often wave can lift particles from the bottom. Tests with sea floor samples in the laboratory showed that the required wave force can be much larger in reality compared to models that are only based on the grain size of the sea floor. These differences are explained by biological activity at the bottom.
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Surface waves are generated by the wind and wave measurements can also be used to estimate the wind speed. This is beneficial in the open ocean where direct measurements of the wind are difficult. The wind speed deduced from wave measurements serve as a third estimate of the wind speed in addition to satellite measurements or numerical model results. We implemented such and algorithm to be used with wave data from a small buoy and validated it against direct wind measurements and model results.
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Typical wave statistics do not provide information on how often certain wave heights are exceeded and the length of such events. Our study found a strong seasonal dependence for 2.5 and 4 m wave events in the Baltic Sea. Wave heights of over 7 m occurred less than once per year. The number of 1 m wave events can double within 20 km in nearshore areas. Our results are important for all operations at sea, including ship traffic and fish farming.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, 2022
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We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Siim Pärt, Victor Alari, Sander Rikka, Elisa Lindgren, and Laura Tuomi
Ocean Sci., 17, 1815–1829, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1815-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1815-2021, 2021
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Waves that travel faster than the wind are called swell. Our study presents wave model statistics of swell waves in the Baltic Sea, since such statistics have not yet been reliably compiled. Our results confirm that long, high, and persistent swell is absent in the Baltic Sea. We found that the dependency between swell and wind waves differs in the open sea compared to nearshore areas. These distinctions are important for studies on how waves interact with the atmosphere and the sea floor.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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The coastal flooding risks based on the combined effect of sea level variations and wind-generated waves are estimated for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the two case study locations in the Helsinki archipelago leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty of the associated scenarios contribute to the flooding risks notably in 2100.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Laura Tuomi, Niko Tollman, Antti Kangas, Heidi Pettersson, Riikka Marjamaa, Hannu Jokinen, and Carl Fortelius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1653–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, 2017
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We identified a previously unknown artefact in the Datawell DWR-G4 wave buoy, which measures the GPS signal to resolve surface water waves. The artefact interferes with the part of the measurements containing information about the longer waves and must be removed to obtain accurate readings. We presented a correction method and found it to be accurate based on a comparison to measurements from a larger wave buoy that measures the movements of the device without using the GPS signal.
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Strong motions caused by surface waves can set the material at the bottom in motion. How strong the wave motions need to be depends on the bottom type, for example mud or sand. We estimated how often wave can lift particles from the bottom. Tests with sea floor samples in the laboratory showed that the required wave force can be much larger in reality compared to models that are only based on the grain size of the sea floor. These differences are explained by biological activity at the bottom.
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Surface waves are generated by the wind and wave measurements can also be used to estimate the wind speed. This is beneficial in the open ocean where direct measurements of the wind are difficult. The wind speed deduced from wave measurements serve as a third estimate of the wind speed in addition to satellite measurements or numerical model results. We implemented such and algorithm to be used with wave data from a small buoy and validated it against direct wind measurements and model results.
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Antti Westerlund, Elina Miettunen, Laura Tuomi, and Pekka Alenius
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Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Siim Pärt, Victor Alari, Sander Rikka, Elisa Lindgren, and Laura Tuomi
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Jari Walden, Liisa Pirjola, Tuomas Laurila, Juha Hatakka, Heidi Pettersson, Tuomas Walden, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Harri Nordlund, Toivo Truuts, Miika Meretoja, and Kimmo K. Kahma
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Tuomas Kärnä, Patrik Ljungemyr, Saeed Falahat, Ida Ringgaard, Lars Axell, Vasily Korabel, Jens Murawski, Ilja Maljutenko, Anja Lindenthal, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Svetlana Verjovkina, Ina Lorkowski, Priidik Lagemaa, Jun She, Laura Tuomi, Adam Nord, and Vibeke Huess
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5731–5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, 2021
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Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Heidi Pettersson, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 15, 1469–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1469-2019, 2019
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Robinson Hordoir, Lars Axell, Anders Höglund, Christian Dieterich, Filippa Fransner, Matthias Gröger, Ye Liu, Per Pemberton, Semjon Schimanke, Helen Andersson, Patrik Ljungemyr, Petter Nygren, Saeed Falahat, Adam Nord, Anette Jönsson, Iréne Lake, Kristofer Döös, Magnus Hieronymus, Heiner Dietze, Ulrike Löptien, Ivan Kuznetsov, Antti Westerlund, Laura Tuomi, and Jari Haapala
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, 2019
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Nemo-Nordic is a regional ocean model based on a community code (NEMO). It covers the Baltic and the North Sea area and is used as a forecast model by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. It is also used as a research tool by scientists of several countries to study, for example, the effects of climate change on the Baltic and North seas. Using such a model permits us to understand key processes in this coastal ecosystem and how such processes will change in a future climate.
Ulpu Leijala, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Milla M. Johansson, Havu Pellikka, Lauri Laakso, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2785–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal flooding risks based on the combined effect of sea level variations and wind-generated waves are estimated for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the two case study locations in the Helsinki archipelago leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty of the associated scenarios contribute to the flooding risks notably in 2100.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Laura Tuomi, Niko Tollman, Antti Kangas, Heidi Pettersson, Riikka Marjamaa, Hannu Jokinen, and Carl Fortelius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1653–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the highest wave events in the Baltic Sea using wave measurements available since 1996. Going beyond classifying them based solely on the maximum wave height, we found that they can be divided into two groups based on, for example, the length of the storm. Two of the severest storms show different behaviour, with the most recent (in 2017) being the longest on record. We hope this more in-depth description of the storms will aid in the issuing of warnings for extreme wave conditions.
Vasco M. N. C. S. Vieira, Pavel Jurus, Emanuela Clementi, Heidi Pettersson, and Marcos Mateus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J.-V. Björkqvist, H. Pettersson, L. Laakso, K. K. Kahma, H. Jokinen, and P. Kosloff
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 17–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-17-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We identified a previously unknown artefact in the Datawell DWR-G4 wave buoy, which measures the GPS signal to resolve surface water waves. The artefact interferes with the part of the measurements containing information about the longer waves and must be removed to obtain accurate readings. We presented a correction method and found it to be accurate based on a comparison to measurements from a larger wave buoy that measures the movements of the device without using the GPS signal.
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2137–2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, 2025
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In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2081–2096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025, 2025
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We developed a simple and effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1655–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, 2025
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By combining limited tsunami simulations with machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths at different coastal sites. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, which is essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
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This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
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This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
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To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
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We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
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Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Changbin Lim, Tae Min Lim, and Jung-Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper underscores the importance of assessing changes in nearby shorelines before performing large-scale coastal construction projects, thus providing insights into methods that minimize potential damage. Consequently, this study presented an opportunity to investigate the ramifications of harbor and fishing port development, as well as large-scale reclamation, which can alter wave fields in coastal regions, on rapid and catastrophic erosion issues.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
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The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, 2025
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Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models addressing key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper introduces two new, simple, physics-based hazard forecast models of rip current and shore-break waves, which are the two primary natural hazards beachgoers expose themselves to in the surf zone. These models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, accurately predict rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives to forecast multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
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Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
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Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Catherine Renae Jeffries, Robert Weiss, Jennifer L. Irish, and Kyle Mandli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, 2024
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Barrier islands are important to their adjacent mainland coastline. Breaching of barrier islands creates a channel of water between the ocean and bay and increases the storm surge along the mainland coast. To examine how breaching impacts the coast we simulated a hurricane and varied the number, locations, and sizes of different breaches. We learned that total breach area directly impacts coastal flooding, and breach locations are an important predictor of flooding.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
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In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
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Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
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Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
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Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
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We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
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The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
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Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
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The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
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Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
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We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
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Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
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Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
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The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
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The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
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We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
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Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
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Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
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We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
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Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
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Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
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Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
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Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
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A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
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Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
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Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
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Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
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This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
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Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
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Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
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Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
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A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
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Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
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Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such...
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