Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020

Research article 23 Dec 2020

Research article | 23 Dec 2020

Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study

Jan-Victor Björkqvist et al.

Data sets

Measured and modelled significant wave height time series at the Bothnian Sea Wave buoy in the Baltic Sea Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Victor Alari, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3878948

SMHI Open Data SMHI https://opendata-download-ocobs.smhi.se/explore/

Global Ocean Dayle Gridded Sea Surfave Winds from Scatterometer E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=WIND_GLO_WIND_L3_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_012_002

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Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
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