Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 23 Dec 2020
| 23 Dec 2020
Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study
Jan-Victor Björkqvist
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Sander Rikka
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Victor Alari
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Aarne Männik
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12611, Tallinn, Estonia
Laura Tuomi
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Heidi Pettersson
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparative Analysis of Environmental Contour Approaches to Estimating Extreme Waves for Offshore Installations for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea L. Wrang et al. 10.3390/jmse9010096
- Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5 K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1946240
- Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea J. Björkqvist et al. 10.5194/os-17-1815-2021
- Application of the LSTM Models for Baltic Sea Wave Spectra Estimation M. Simon et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3220882
- Effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic Sea wave climate: application of the EOF method on multi-mission satellite altimetry data F. Najafzadeh et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05874-x
- Analysis of the hydrosedimentary circulation in the mouth of dominated wave environment using grain size analysis, wave/current modeling and image processing case of the principal Rivers in Zemmouri bay I. Yaiche Temam et al. 10.1007/s40808-024-02007-1
- Application of SWAN model for wave forecasting in the southern Baltic Sea supplemented with measurement and satellite data P. Sapiega et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105624
- Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region R. Weisse et al. 10.5194/esd-12-871-2021
- Statistical models for extreme waves: Comparison of distributions and Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainty T. Görmüş et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110820
- Spatiotemporal variability of wave climate in the Gulf of Riga F. Najafzadeh et al. 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.11.001
- Projections of wind climate and wave energy resources in Lithuanian territorial waters of the Baltic Sea in the 21st century D. Jakimavičius & V. Akstinas 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.06.004
- Long-term statistics of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea and meteorological features related to wind wave extremes in the Gulf of Gdańsk W. Cieślikiewicz & A. Cupiał 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.10.002
- Numerical simulations of wave climate in the Baltic Sea: a review T. Soomere 10.1016/j.oceano.2022.01.004
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparative Analysis of Environmental Contour Approaches to Estimating Extreme Waves for Offshore Installations for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea L. Wrang et al. 10.3390/jmse9010096
- Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5 K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1946240
- Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea J. Björkqvist et al. 10.5194/os-17-1815-2021
- Application of the LSTM Models for Baltic Sea Wave Spectra Estimation M. Simon et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3220882
- Effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic Sea wave climate: application of the EOF method on multi-mission satellite altimetry data F. Najafzadeh et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05874-x
- Analysis of the hydrosedimentary circulation in the mouth of dominated wave environment using grain size analysis, wave/current modeling and image processing case of the principal Rivers in Zemmouri bay I. Yaiche Temam et al. 10.1007/s40808-024-02007-1
- Application of SWAN model for wave forecasting in the southern Baltic Sea supplemented with measurement and satellite data P. Sapiega et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105624
- Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region R. Weisse et al. 10.5194/esd-12-871-2021
- Statistical models for extreme waves: Comparison of distributions and Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainty T. Görmüş et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110820
- Spatiotemporal variability of wave climate in the Gulf of Riga F. Najafzadeh et al. 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.11.001
- Projections of wind climate and wave energy resources in Lithuanian territorial waters of the Baltic Sea in the 21st century D. Jakimavičius & V. Akstinas 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.06.004
- Long-term statistics of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea and meteorological features related to wind wave extremes in the Gulf of Gdańsk W. Cieślikiewicz & A. Cupiał 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.10.002
- Numerical simulations of wave climate in the Baltic Sea: a review T. Soomere 10.1016/j.oceano.2022.01.004
Latest update: 17 Jul 2024
Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such...
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