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NHESS | Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 03 Nov 2020
Research article | 03 Nov 2020
Deriving rainfall thresholds for landsliding at the regional scale: daily and hourly resolutions, normalisation, and antecedent rainfall
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Related authors
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, 2020
Preprint under review for HESS
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, 2020
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Marius G. Floriancic, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Tobias Jonas, James W. Kirchner, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020
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Low river flows affect societies and ecosystems. Here we study how precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shape low flows across a network of 380 Swiss catchments. Low flows in these rivers typically result from below-average precipitation and above-average potential evapotranspiration. Extreme low flows result from long periods of the combined effects of both drivers.
Giulia Battista, Peter Molnar, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, 2020
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Suspended sediment load in rivers is highly uncertain because of spatial and temporal variability. By means of a hydrology and suspended sediment transport model, we investigated the effect of spatial variability in precipitation and surface erodibility on catchment sediment fluxes in a mesoscale river basin.
We found that sediment load depends on the spatial variability in erosion drivers, as this affects erosion rates and the location and connectivity to the channel of the erosion areas.
Nadav Peleg, Chris Skinner, Simone Fatichi, and Peter Molnar
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 17–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, 2020
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Extreme rainfall is expected to intensify with increasing temperatures, which will likely affect rainfall spatial structure. The spatial variability of rainfall can affect streamflow and sediment transport volumes and peaks. The sensitivity of the hydro-morphological response to changes in the structure of heavy rainfall was investigated. It was found that the morphological components are more sensitive to changes in rainfall spatial structure in comparison to the hydrological components.
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3421–3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, 2018
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We analyse the control of hydroclimatic factors – erosive rainfall, ice melt, and snowmelt – on suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of Alpine catchments regulated by hydropower, and we develop a multivariate hydroclimatic–informed rating curve. We show that while erosive rainfall determines the variability of SSC, ice melt generates the highest contribution to SSC per unit of runoff. This approach allows the exploration of climate–driven changes in fine sediment dynamics in Alpine catchments.
Anna Costa, Peter Molnar, Laura Stutenbecker, Maarten Bakker, Tiago A. Silva, Fritz Schlunegger, Stuart N. Lane, Jean-Luc Loizeau, and Stéphanie Girardclos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, 2018
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We explore the signal of a warmer climate in the suspended-sediment dynamics of a regulated and human-impacted Alpine catchment. We demonstrate that temperature-driven enhanced melting of glaciers, which occurred in the mid-1980s, played a dominant role in suspended sediment concentration rise, through increased runoff from sediment-rich proglacial areas, increased contribution of sediment-rich meltwater, and increased sediment supply in proglacial areas due to glacier recession.
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We develop a novel rating curve to simulate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in Alpine catchments (Process-Based Rating Curve, PBRC). Instead of relating SSC to discharge, as in traditional approaches, we model SSC by differentiating the potential contributions of the main erosional and transport processes of Alpine environments: erosive rainfall, snowmelt, and icemelt. We show that PBRC significantly improves predictions of SSC, especially when analysing climate-induced changes.
Nadav Peleg, Frank Blumensaat, Peter Molnar, Simone Fatichi, and Paolo Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1559–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, 2017
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We investigated the relative contribution of the spatial versus climatic rainfall variability for flow peaks by applying an advanced stochastic rainfall generator to simulate rainfall for a small urban catchment and simulate flow dynamics in the sewer system. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. The contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with return periods.
Søren Thorndahl, Thomas Einfalt, Patrick Willems, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, 2017
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This paper reviews how weather radar data can be used in urban hydrological applications. It focuses on three areas of research: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Moreover, the paper provides examples of urban hydrological applications which can benefit from radar rainfall data in comparison to tradition rain gauge measurements of rainfall.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
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We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Bahareh Kianfar, Simone Fatichi, Athansios Paschalis, Max Maurer, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
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Raingauge observations show a large variability in extreme rainfall depths in the current climate. Climate model predictions of extreme rainfall in the future have to be compared with this natural variability. Our work shows that predictions of future extreme rainfall often lie within the range of natural variability of present-day climate, and therefore predictions of change are highly uncertain. We demonstrate this by using stochastic rainfall models and 10-min rainfall data in Switzerland.
Matteo Saletti, Peter Molnar, Marwan A. Hassan, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 549–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, 2016
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This study presents a new reduced-complexity model with few parameters linked to basic physical processes, which aims to reproduce the transport of sediment as bed load and the formation and stability of channel morphology in steep mountain streams. The model is able to simulate the formation and stability of steps, bed structures commonly encountered in steep channels, by assuming that their formation is due to intense sediment transport during high flows causing jamming of particles.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, L. Gaál, J. Szolgay, and P. Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1753–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, 2015
Short summary
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We present an empirical study of the rates of increase in precipitation intensity with air temperature using high-resolution 10 min precipitation records in Switzerland. We estimated the scaling rates for lightning (convective) and non-lightning event subsets and show that scaling rates are between 7 and 14%/C for convective rain and that mixing of storm types exaggerates the relations to air temperature. Doubled CC rates reported by other studies are an exception in our data set.
K. Džubáková, P. Molnar, K. Schindler, and M. Trizna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, 2015
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We use a high-resolution ground-based camera system with near-infrared sensitivity to quantify the response of riparian vegetation in an Alpine river to floods with the use of vegetation indices. The vegetation showed both damage and enhancement within 1 week following floods, with a selective impact determined by pre-flood vegetation vigour, morphological setting and intensity of flood forcing. The tested vegetation indices differed in the direction of predicted change in the range 0.7-35.8%.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Semi-empirical prediction of dam height and stability of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway
Detecting precursors of an imminent landslide along the Jinsha River
A systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detection
Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics
Stability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fractures
Shear rate effect on the residual strength characteristics of saturated loess in naturally drained ring shear tests
Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides
Debris flows recorded in the Moscardo catchment (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019
The mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveys
Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal link
Timing, drivers and impacts of the historic Masiere di Vedana rock avalanche (Belluno Dolomites, NE Italy)
Radar coherence and NDVI ratios as landslide early warning indicators
Sensitivity and identifiability of rheological parameters in debris flow modeling
Assessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: a case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong Kong
INSPIRE standards as framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslides example
Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations
Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trends
A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China
Analysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)
Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient
Erosion after an extreme storm event in an arid fluvial system of the southern Atacama Desert: an assessment of the magnitude, return time, and conditioning factors of erosion and debris flow generation
Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrain
The Potential of Smartstone Probes in Landslide Experiments: How to Read Motion Data
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Landslide hazard probability and risk assessment at the community level: a case of western Hubei, China
Back calculation of the 2017 Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade with r.avaflow: what we can do and what we can learn
Modelling landslide hazard under global change: the case of a Pyrenean valley
Dynamic path-dependent landslide susceptibility modelling
New Global Characterization of Landslide Exposure
From examination of natural events to a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular-automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador
Brief communication: Post-wildfire rockfall risk in the eastern Alps
A new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and physically based models in the North Cascades of Washington, USA
Numerical modeling using an elastoplastic-adhesive discrete element code for simulating hillslope debris flows and calibration against field experiments
Simulation of fragmental rockfalls detected using terrestrial laser scans from rock slopes in south-central British Columbia, Canada
The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: a case study in Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County (Hubei, China)
GIS-based earthquake-triggered-landslide susceptibility mapping with an integrated weighted index model in Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, China
Efficacy of using radar-derived factors in landslide susceptibility analysis: case study of Koslanda, Sri Lanka
How size and trigger matter: analyzing rainfall- and earthquake-triggered landslide inventories and their causal relation in the Koshi River basin, central Himalaya
Global detection of rainfall-triggered landslide clusters
Simultaneous state–parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation
A remote-sensing-based intensity–duration threshold, Faifa Mountains, Saudi Arabia
Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment
Landslide susceptibility mapping by using a geographic information system (GIS) along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (Karakoram Highway), Pakistan
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
Simple rules to minimise exposure to coseismic landslide hazard
A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence
Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration
Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads
Changes in ground deformation prior to and following a large urban landslide in La Paz, Bolivia, revealed by advanced InSAR
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, 2020
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Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, 2020
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We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, 2020
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Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, 2020
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We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, 2020
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Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analysed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses are considerably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.
Baoqin Lian, Xingang Wang, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2843–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, 2020
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2547–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, 2020
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Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and in-field damage evidence was found.
Lorenzo Marchi, Federico Cazorzi, Massimo Arattano, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Stefano Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-276, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, 2020
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This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2307–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, 2020
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In the Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early-warning systems might contribute to the mitigation of the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, 2020
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Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Mylène Jacquemart and Kristy Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-227, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We used interferometric coherence – a data quality measure used to assess the reliability of radar interferometry data – to document the destablization of the Mud Creek landslide in California 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure. We calculate a time series of coherence on the slide relative to the surrounding hillslope and suggest that this easy to compute metric might be useful for identifying critically unstable hillslopes.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
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We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, 2020
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When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-134, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region, Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to have implemented the INSPIRE data framework by 2021 but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, 2020
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We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, 2020
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Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, 2020
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Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, 2020
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We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the
rainfall-induced translational landslides.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, 2020
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The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.
Germán Aguilar, Albert Cabré, Victor Fredes, and Bruno Villela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, 2020
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We have calculated erosion caused by an extreme storm in the Atacama Desert. Erosion distribution depends on the ability of catchments to store sediments in stream networks between storms and generate debris flows during the storm. The order of magnitude of erosion is the same as the erosion rates calculated over the long term, so these storms have a relevant influence on the evolution of these arid fluvial systems.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, 2020
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In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.
Bastian Dost, Oliver Gronz, Markus Casper, and Andreas Krein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-61, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We show the potential to observe the unconfined internal motion behavior of single clasts in landslides using a wireless sensor measuring acceleration and rotation. The probe's dimensions are 10 × 55 mm. It measures up to 16 g and 2000°/s with 100 Hz sampling rate. From the data, we derive: transport mode, velocity, displacement, and three-dimensional trajectories of several probes. Results are verified by high speed image analysis and laser distance measurements.
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Yu Zou, Zhuping Sheng, and Blanca S. Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 713–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, 2020
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Coseismic landslides often cause loss of life and property damage. Accurately mapping hazards is very important and challenging work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface unloading joint and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is verified using the Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014 and compared with a conventional Newmark analysis using area under the curve analysis.
Sheng Fu, Lixia Chen, Tsehaie Woldai, Kunlong Yin, Lei Gui, Deying Li, Juan Du, Chao Zhou, Yong Xu, and Zhipeng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, 2020
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In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide risk assessment at a community level and scale of 1 : 10 000. In this manner, the case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. The proposed procedure proved to be more useful in complementing risk assessment on the small scale of 100 000 in western Hubei, China.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-311, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazard in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100.
The results demonstrate the influence of the presence and type of forest on slope stability, despite being small. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content, depending on the landslide typology considered.These changes are particularly significant under the most extreme climate scenario.
Jalal Samia, Arnaud Temme, Arnold Bregt, Jakob Wallinga, Fausto Guzzetti, and Francesca Ardizzone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-271-2020, 2020
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For the Collazzone study area in Italy, we quantified how much landslides follow others using Ripley's K function, finding that susceptibility is increased within 60 m and 17 years after a previous landslide. We then calculated the increased susceptibility for every pixel and for the 17-time-slice landslide inventory. We used these as additional explanatory variables in susceptibility modelling. Model performance increased substantially with this landslide history component included.
Robert Emberson, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Thomas Stanley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-434, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-434, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads, and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.
Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Claudia R. Calidonna, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, 2020
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A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfall, is proposed as an alternative to methods for containment or deviation that could cause future disasters. It is based on controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds, as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, and erosion of lahars that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador, is shown.
Sandra Melzner, Nurit Shtober-Zisu, Oded Katz, and Lea Wittenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2879–2885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, 2019
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In the eastern Alps, no work on post-wildfire rockfall activity and risk has been published so far. The present work describes a wildfire that occurred in August 2018 in a famous world heritage site in Austria. Indicators of fire severity and rockfall occurrence during and after the fire are described. Future research needs are defined in order to raise awareness about the implementation of a new research focus in the Alpine region.
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019
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Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
Adel Albaba, Massimiliano Schwarz, Corinna Wendeler, Bernard Loup, and Luuk Dorren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, 2019
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We present a discrete-element-based model which is adapted and used to produce hillslope debris flows. The model parameters were calibrated using field experiments, and a very good agreement was found in terms of pressure and flow velocity. Calibration results suggested that a link might exist between the model parameters and the initial conditions of the granular material. However, to better understand this link, further investigations are required by conducting detailed lab-scale experiments.
Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2385–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2385-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2385-2019, 2019
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The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of reproducing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.
Lixia Chen, Zizheng Guo, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, and Shikuan Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2207–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2207-2019, 2019
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The study aims to evaluate the influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility at a regional scale, based on the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies. The specific objective is to answer the following question: which land cover/land use change poses the highest risk so that mitigation measures can be implemented in time?
Yaning Yi, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Qi Xu, Cai Deng, and Qilun Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1973–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1973-2019, 2019
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On 8 August 2017, a Mw 6.5 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, which triggered numerous landslides. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using an integrated weighted index model. Results indicated that the integrated model has superior fitting performance and predictive capability. We expect that the generated landslide susceptibility map can serve engineers and decision makers involved in hazard mitigation.
Ahangama Kankanamge Rasika Nishamanie Ranasinghe, Ranmalee Bandara, Udeni Gnanapriya Anuruddha Puswewala, and Thilantha Lakmal Dammalage
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1881–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1881-2019, 2019
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Koslanda in Sri Lanka is on people's minds due to frequently occurring landslides as the area is made vulnerable by both climatic and geomorphological settings. Integration of radar and optical remote sensing can be used to quite satisfactorily predict landslides with complementary information at a smaller scale. Inclusion of radar-derived factors in landslide susceptibility analysis of a bivariate and multivariate nature improves the prediction of high- and very-low-susceptibility areas.
Jianqiang Zhang, Cees J. van Westen, Hakan Tanyas, Olga Mavrouli, Yonggang Ge, Samjwal Bajrachary, Deo Raj Gurung, Megh Raj Dhital, and Narendral Raj Khanal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1789–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1789-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1789-2019, 2019
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The aim of this study is to investigate the differences in the mappable characteristics of earthquake-triggered and rainfall triggered landslides in terms of their frequency–area relationships, spatial distributions and relation with causal factors, as well as to evaluate whether separate susceptibility maps generated for specific landslide size and triggering mechanism are better than a generic landslide susceptibility assessment including all landslide sizes and triggers.
Susanne A. Benz and Philipp Blum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1433–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1433-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1433-2019, 2019
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This study aims to identify clusters of landslide events within a global database that are triggered by the same rainfall event. Results show that 14 % of all recorded landslide events are actually part of a landslide cluster consisting of at least 10 events. However, in a more regional analysis this number ranges from 30 % for the west coast of North America to 3 % in the Himalayan region. These findings provide an improved understanding for managing landslide mitigations on a larger scale.
Jing Wang, Guigen Nie, Shengjun Gao, and Changhu Xue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1387–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1387-2019, 2019
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It is necessary to do some prevention study of landslide hazard like the early warning and deformation prediction. This research proposes a new strategy to predict displacement of the landslide. Results confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of this method in displacement prediction, which can provide assistance in early risk assessment and landslide forecasting.
Sita Karki, Mohamed Sultan, Saleh Alsefry, Hassan Alharbi, Mustafa Kemal Emil, Racha Elkadiri, and Emad Abu Alfadail
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1235–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1235-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1235-2019, 2019
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We constructed an intensity–duration thresholding technique required to develop an early-warning system for the Faifa Mountains in Saudi Arabia. The study uses radar imagery, satellite-derived rainfall data, archival imagery, and limited field data. The study presents a significant development in the application of radar for hydrogeological and geomorphological studies as it provides better resilience towards nonoptical conditions.
Louise Mary Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1105–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1105-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1105-2019, 2019
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Rockfall boulders can travel long distances downslope, and it is important to predict how far fatalities can be prevented. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) into account.
Sajid Ali, Peter Biermanns, Rashid Haider, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 999–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-999-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-999-2019, 2019
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The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is an important physical connection between Pakistan and China. Landslides have been a major threat to its stability since its construction. After the announcement of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), KKH has had more importance. Geoscientists from research institutions in both countries are assessing landslide hazard and risk along the highway. In a PhD project, this paper will be followed by a detailed analysis of mass movements along the highway.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, 2019
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We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of
multi-model solvers.
David G. Milledge, Alexander L. Densmore, Dino Bellugi, Nick J. Rosser, Jack Watt, Gen Li, and Katie J. Oven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 837–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-837-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-837-2019, 2019
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Mitigating landslide risk requires information on landslide hazards on a suitable scale to inform decisions. We develop simple rules to identify landslide hazards and the probability of being hit by a landslide, then test their performance using six existing landslide inventories from recent earthquakes. We find that the best rules are "minimize your maximum look angle to the skyline" and "avoid steep (> 10˚) channels with many steep (> 40˚) areas that are upslope".
Elise Monsieurs, Olivier Dewitte, and Alain Demoulin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, 2019
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We propose in this study a fundamentally new approach for the definition of minimum rainfall required for the initiation of landslides based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with data on surface susceptibility for landslides. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift and provide first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.
Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín, Miguel Ángel Herrada, José Ignacio Yenes, and Ricardo Castedo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 721–736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019, 2019
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This research work of this paper completes the authors' activity in the Military Emergencies Unit of Spain in responding to the problem of slope instabilities and how to predict them in the case of heavy rains. This work completes the work of stabilization and stresses made by torrential rains in the south of Spain. The results have been satisfactory.
Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Brian G. McAdoo, Sanjaya Devkota, Purna Chandra Lal Rajbhandari, John Howell, and Shuva Sharma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 655–660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-655-2019, 2019
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This article discusses how Nepal's development, landslide risk and geopolitics are intertwined as the country seeks to expand its road networks. However, rural villages adjacent to major roads have developed their own network of poorly constructed rural roads, which are likely to increase environmental and socioeconomic risks associated with roadside landslides. We base our observations on research conducted over a decade in Nepal, with reference to new research on roads and landslides.
Nicholas J. Roberts, Bernhard T. Rabus, John J. Clague, Reginald L. Hermanns, Marco-Antonio Guzmán, and Estela Minaya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 679–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019, 2019
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La Paz, Bolivia, experiences frequent damaging landslides. We quantify creep before and after the city’s largest modern landslide using spaceborne InSAR. Creep of ancient landslide deposits increased in rate and extent following failure and extended into adjacent intact materials. Accelerated steady-state creep reflects complex post-failure stress redistribution. Landslide risk in La Paz, which is underlain by many large ancient landslides, may be even greater than previously thought.
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Short summary
Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced...
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