Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2019
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2019
| 05 Nov 2019
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Valérie Baumann
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des
Maraîchers 13, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Costanza Bonadonna
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des
Maraîchers 13, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Sabatino Cuomo
Laboratory of Geotechnics, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni
Paolo II 132, 84081 Fisciano Salerno, Italy
Mariagiovanna Moscariello
Laboratory of Geotechnics, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni
Paolo II 132, 84081 Fisciano Salerno, Italy
Sebastien Biass
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore, Singapore
Marco Pistolesi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, Pisa,
Italy
Alessandro Gattuso
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Simon Thivet, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Przemyslaw M. Kornatowski, Allan Fries, Jonathan Lemus, Riccardo Simionato, Carolina Díaz-Vecino, Eduardo Rossi, Taishi Yamada, Simona Scollo, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-162, 2024
Preprint under review for AMT
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents an innovative way of sampling and analyzing volcanic clouds using an Unoccupied Aircraft System (UAS). The UAS can reach hazardous environments to sample volcanic particles, and measure in-situ key parameters such as the atmospheric concentration of volcanic aerosols and gases. Acquired data bridge the gap between the existing approaches of ground sampling and remote sensing, hence contributing to the understanding of volcanic cloud dispersion and impact.
Luigi Mereu, Manuel Stocchi, Alexander Garcia, Michele Prestifilippo, Laura Sandri, Costanza Bonadonna, and Simona Scollo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the question about the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions, in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis and could be reused instead of disposed, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
Maria-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes is shared by four countries and groups 59 volcanoes. We identified the ones with the most intense and frequent eruptions (e.g., El Misti and Ubinas), the cities with the highest density of elements at risk (e.g., Arequipa and Mequegua), and the volcanoes with the highest potential impact (e.g., Cerro Blanco and Yucamane). Our study contributes into the prioritization of risk reduction resources, which is crucial for surrounding communities.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Frances Beckett, Eduardo Rossi, Benjamin Devenish, Claire Witham, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As volcanic ash is transported through the atmosphere, it may collide and stick together to form aggregates. Neglecting the process of aggregation in atmospheric dispersion models could lead to inaccurate forecasts used by civil aviation for hazard assessment. We developed an aggregation scheme for use with the model NAME, which is used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Using our scheme, we investigate the impact of aggregation on simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud.
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Giorgio Capasso, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3407–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Santa Barbara and Aragona are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 and 0.20 km2 were elaborated with DSMs and with historical information on the paroxysms that occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for civil protection authorities in order to take appropriate risk mitigation measurements for exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Eduardo Rossi and Costanza Bonadonna
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4379–4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
SCARLET-1.0 is a MATLAB package that creates virtual aggregates starting from a population of irregular shapes. Shapes are described in terms of the Standard Triangulation Language (STL) format, and this allows importing a great variety of shapes, such as from 3D scanning. The package produces a new STL file as an output and different analytical information about the packing, such as the porosity. It has been specifically designed for use in volcanology and scientific education.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2289–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, 2014
S. Scollo, M. Coltelli, C. Bonadonna, and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3221–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3221-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014
Chronology and impact of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile
PM10 measurements in urban settlements after lava fountain episodes at Mt. Etna, Italy: pilot test to assess volcanic ash hazard to human health
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
D. Andronico and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on the potential health risks caused by the sub-10 micron fraction of volcanic ash (PM10) following explosive eruptions of Mt. Etna (Italy). We present the results of a study on the ash concentration in the air of urbanized areas after the 15 November 2011 lava fountain and the related tephra fallout, causing high levels of PM10 in the air. We conclude by hoping that due attention will be given to the impact of ash fallout on the Etnean territory in the future.
Cited articles
Arnone, E., Pumo, D., Viola, F., Noto, L. V., and La Loggia, G.: Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2449–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2449-2013, 2013.
Arrighi, S., Tanguy, J. C., and Rosi, M.: Eruptions of the last 2200 years at
Vulcano and Vulcanello (Aeolian Islands, Italy) dated by high-accuracy
archeomagnetism, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 159, 225–233, 2006.
Aubertin, M., Mbonimpa, M., Bussière, B.,
and Chapuis, R. P.: A model to predict the water retention curve from basic
geotechnical properties, Can. Geotech. J., 40, 1104–1122,
https://doi.org/10.1139/t03-054, 2003.
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS – a Fortran Program for
Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability
Analysis, US geological survey open-file report, 424, 38, 2002.
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS – A Fortran Program for
Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability
Analysis, Version 2.0, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, No 02-0424, Open-file Report, p. 35,
75 pp., 2008.
Baumann, V., Bonadonna, C., Cuomo, S., Moscariello, M., and Manzella, I.:
Slope stability models for rainfall-induced lahars during long-lasting
eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 359, 78–94,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.06.018, 2018.
Biass, S., Bonadonna, C., Di Traglia, F., Pistolesi, M., Rosi, M., and
Lestuzzi, P.: Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future
tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 78, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-016-1028-1, 2016a.
Biass, S., Bonadonna, C., Connor, L., and Connor, C.: TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout,
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 5, 10, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-016-0050-5, 2016b.
Bishop A. W.: The principle of effective stress, Teknik Ukeblad., 39, 859–863, 1959.
Bisson, M., Favalli, M., Mazzarini, F., Mori, A., Pareschi, M. T., and
Sinapi, L.: A morphometric model of the Aeolian Islands (Italy), Editrice Compositori Bologna, Bologna, Italy, NUOVO
CIMENTO-SOCIETA ITALIANA DI FISICA SEZIONE C, 26, 417–436, 2003.
Bonadonna, C., Connor, C. B., Houghton, B. F., Connor, L., Byrne, M., Laing, A., and Hincks, T.: Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersion: hazard assessment of a multi-phase eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B03203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002896, 2005.
Brooks, R. H. and Corey, A. T.: Hydraulic properties of porous media, Hydrology paper No. 3, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, 1964.
Brooks, R. H. and Corey, A. T.: Properties of porous media affecting fluid flow,
J. Irr. Drain. Div.-ASCE, 92, 61–90, 1966.
Caballero, L., Capra, L., and Vázquez, R.: Evaluating the Performance of
FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes:
Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima, Natural Hazard Uncertainty
Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph Book Series, 223, 179–189, 2016.
Capaccioni, B. and Coniglio, S.: Varicolored and vesiculated tuffs from La
Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy): evidence of
syndepositional alteration processes, B. Volcanol., 57, 61–70, 1995.
Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., Pastor, M., and Sorbino, G.: Modeling of
Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides of the Flow-Type, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 136, 85–98, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000182,
2010.
Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., and Della Sala, M.: Spatial and temporal occurrence of
rainfall-induced shallow landslides of flow type: A case of Sarno-Quindici,
Italy, Geomorphology, 126, 148–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.10.038,
2011.
Charbonnier, S. J., Connor, C. B., Connor, L. J., Sheridan, M. F., Oliva
Hernández, J. P., and Richardson, J. A.: Modeling the October 2005 lahars at
Panabaj (Guatemala), B. Volcanol., 80, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1169-x, 2018.
Cho, S. E. and Lee, S. R.: Evaluation of surficial stability for homogeneous
slopes considering
rainfall characteristics, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 128, 756–763, 2002.
Collins, B. D. and Dunne, T.: Erosion of tephra from the 1980 eruption of
Mount St. Helens, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 97, 896–905, 1986.
Collins, B. D. and Znidarcic, D.: Stability analyses of rainfall induced
landslides, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 130, 362–372, 2004.
Córdoba, G., Villarosa, G., Sheridan, M. F., Viramonte, J. G., Beigt, D., and Salmuni, G.: Secondary lahar hazard assessment for Villa la Angostura, Argentina, using Two-Phase-Titan modelling code during 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-757-2015, 2015.
Crosta, G. B. and Dal Negro, P.: Observations and modelling of soil slip-debris flow initiation processes in pyroclastic deposits: the Sarno 1998 event, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-53-2003, 2003.
Crosta, G. B. and Frattini, P.: Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-81-2003, 2003.
Cuomo, S. and Della Sala, M.: Rainfall-induced infiltration, runoff and failure
in steep unsaturated shallow soil deposits, Eng. Geol., 162, 118–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.05.010, 2013.
Cuomo, S. and Iervolino, A.: Investigating the role of stratigraphy in
large-area physically-based analysis of December 1999 Cervinara shallow
landslides, J. Mt. Sci., 13, 104–115, 2016.
Cuomo, S., Della Sala, M., and Novità, A.: Physically based modelling of
soil erosion induced by rainfall in small mountain basins, Geomorphology,
243, 106–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.04.019, 2015.
Cuomo, S., Chareyre, B., d'Arista, P., Della Sala, M., and Cascini, L.:
Micromechanical modelling of rainsplash erosion in unsaturated soils by
Discrete Element Method, Catena, 147, 146–152, 2016.
Daag, A. S.: Modelling the erosion of pyroclastic flow deposits and the
occurrences of lahars at Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines. Unpublished PhD thesis,
ITC Dissertation number 104, Utrecht, Univesity of Utrecht, 2003.
Darcy, H.: Les fontaines publiques de la ville de Dijon : exposition et
application des principes à suivre et des formules à employer dans
les questions de distribution d'eau, Victor Dalmont, Paris, 1856.
De Astis, G., La Volpe, L., Peccerillo, A., and Civetta, L.: Volcanological and
petrologicalevolution of Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Southern Tyrrenian
Sea), J. Geophys. Res., 102, 8021–8050, 1997.
De Astis, G., Lucchi, F., Dellino, P., La Volpe, L., Tranne, C. A., Frezzotti,
M. L., and Peccerillo, A.: Chapter 11 Geology, volcanic history and petrology of
Vulcano (central Aeolian archipelago), Geological Society, London, Memoirs
37, 281–349,
https://doi.org/10.1144/M37.11,
2013.
De Bélizal, E., Lavigne, F., Hadmoko, D. S., Degeai, J. P., Dipayana, G. A., Wahyo Mutaqin, B., Aris Marfai, M., Coquet, M., Le Mauff, B., Robin, A.-K., Vidal, C., Cholik, N., and Aisyah, N.: Rain-triggered lahars following the
2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia: A major risk, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 330–347, 2013.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R. , Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis:
Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137,
553–597, 2011.
De Fiore, O.: Vulcano (isole eolie), in: Revisita
vulcanologica (suppl. 3), edited by: Friedlaender, I., Reimer, D., and Vohsen, E., Berlin, Germany, 1–393, 1922.
Dellino, P. and La Volpe, L.: Stratigrafia, dinamiche eruttive e deposizionali,
scenario eruttivo evalutazioni di pericolosit`a a La Fossa di Vulcano, Tech.
rep., CNR-gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia, Volume speciale
Vulcano-Progetto triennale, 1992–1995, 1997.
Dellino, P., De Astis, G., La Volpe, L., Mele, D., and Sulpizio, R.:
Quantitative hazard assessment of phreatomagmatic eruptions at Vulcano
(Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy) as obtained by combining stratigraphy,
event statistics and physical modelling, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 201, 364–384, 2011.
De Martonne, E.: Une nouvelle fonction climatologique: l'indice
d'aridité, La Météorologie, 2, 449–458, 1926.
Di Traglia, F.: The last 1000 years of eruptive activity at the Fossa Cone
(Island of Vulcano, Southern Italy), PhD thesis, Dipartimento di Scienze
della Terra, Scuola di Dottorato di Ricerca in Scienze di Base Galileo
Galilei, Programma di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di
Pisa, 2011.
Di Traglia, F., Pistolesi, M., Rosi, M., Bonadonna, C., Fusillo, R., and
Roverato, M.: Geomorphology Growth and erosion: The volcanic geology and
morphological evolution of La Fossa (Island of Vulcano, Southern Italy) in
the last 1000 years, Geomorphology, 194, 94–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.04.018, 2013.
Dietrich, W., McKean, J., Bellugi, D., and Perron, T.: The prediction of shallow
landslide location and size using a multidimensional landslide analysis in a
digital terrain model, 4th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation – Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, Chengdu, China, 12, 2007.
Ferrucci, M., Pertusati, S., Sulpizio, R., Zanchetta, G., Pareschi, M. T.,
and Santacroce, R.: Volcaniclastic debris flows at La Fossa Volcano
(Vulcano Island, southern Italy): Insights for erosion behaviour of loose
pyroclastic material on steep slopes, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 145, 173–191, 2005.
Frattini, P., Crosta, G. B., Fusi, N., and Dal Negro, P.: Shallow landslides in
pyroclastic soils: A distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment,
Eng. Geol., 73, 277–295, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.009, 2004.
Frazzetta, G., La Volpe, L., and Sheridan, M. F.: Evolution of the Fossa
cone, Vulcano, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 17, 329–360,
1983.
Frazzetta, G., Gillot, P. Y., La Volpe, L., and Sheridan, M. F.: Volcanic
hazards at Fossa of Vulcano: Data from the last 6,000 years, Bulletin Volcanologique, 47,
105–124, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01960543, 1984.
Fulignati, P., Sbrana, A., Luperini, W., and Greco, V.: Formation of rock
coatings induced by the acid fumarole plume of the passively degassing
volcano of La Fossa (Vulcano Island, Italy), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 115, 397–41, 2002.
Galderisi, A., Bonadonna, C., Delmonaco, G., Ferrara, F. F., Menoni, S., Ceudech,
A., Biass, S., Frischknecht, C., Manzella, I., Minucci, G., and Gregg C.:
Vulnerability assessment and risk mitigation: the case of Vulcano Island,
Italy, Proceedings of the Second World Landslide Forum, 3–7 October 2011,
Rome, 2013.
Gardner, W. R.: Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow
equation with application to evaporation from a water table, Soil Sci., 85, 228–232, 1958.
Gioncada, A., Mazzuoli, R., Bisson, M., and Pareschi, M. T.: Petrology of
volcanic products younger than 42 ka on the Lipari-Vulcano complex (Aeolian
Islands, Italy): An example of volcanism controlled by tectonics, J.
Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 122, 191–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00502-4,
2003.
Godt, J. W., Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., Salciarini, D., Schulz, W. H., and Harp,
E. L.: Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: Requirements for
susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework, Eng. Geol., 102,
214–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.019, 2008.
Gudmundsson, M. T.: Hazards from Lahars and Jökulhlaups, The Encyclopedia of volcanoes, Academis, San Diego, 971–984, 2015.
Gurioli, L., Zanella, E., Gioncada, A., and Sbrana, A.: The historic magmatic–hydrothermal eruption of the breccia di Commenda, Vulcano, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1235–1254, 2012.
Horton, R. E.: Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins;
hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 56, 275–370, 1945.
INGV (Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia): Palermo, available at: https://www.pa.ingv.it/, last access: 7 March 2019.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour. Res.,
36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090, 2000.
Iverson, R. M. and Lahusen, R. G.: Dynamic Pore-Pressure Fluctuations in Rapidly
Shearing Granular Materials, Am. Assoc. Adv. Sci., 246, 796–799, 1989.
Iverson, R. M. and Vallance, J.: New views of granular mass flows, Geology, 29,
115–118, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0115:NVOGMF>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Janda, R., Daag, A., Delos Reyes, P., Newhall, C., Pierson, T., Punongbayan,
R., and Rodolfo, K.: Assessment and Response to Lahar Hazard around Mount
Pinatubo, 1991 to 1993, Fire Mud, Eruptions Lahars Mt. Pinatubo, Philipp,
107–139, 1996.
Jones, R., Thomas, R. E., Peakall, J., and Manville, V.: Rainfall-runoff properties of tephra: Simulated effects of grain-size and antecedent rainfall, Geomorphology, 282, 39–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.12.023, 2017.
Keller, J.: The island of Vulcano, Rend. Soc. Italian Miner. Petrol., 36,
369–414, 1980.
Kovács, G.: Seepage hydraulics, Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam,
1981.
Krumbein, W. C.: Size frequency distributions of sediments and the normal
phi curve, J. Sediment. Petrol., 8, 84–90, 1938.
Lanza, R. and Zanella, E.: Paleomagnetic secular variation at Vulcano
(Aeolian islands) during the last 135 kyr, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 213, 321–336, 2003.
Lavigne, F., Thouret, J.-C., Voight, B., Young, K., LaHusen, R., Marso, J.,
Suwa, H., Sumaryono, A., Sayudi, D., and Dejean, M.: Instrumental lahar
monitoring at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 100, 457–478, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00151-7, 2000.
Leavesley, G. H., Lusby, G. C., and Lichty, R. W.: Infiltration and erosion
characteristics of selected tephra deposits from the 1980 eruption of Mount
St. Helens, Washington, USA, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 34,
339–353, 1989.
Li, W. C., Lee, L. M., Cai, H., Li, H. J., Dai, F. C., and Wang, M. L.:
Combined roles of saturated permeability and rainfall characteristics on
surficial failure of homogeneous soil slope, Eng. Geol., 153,
105–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.11.017, 2013.
Major, J. J. and Yamakoshi, T.: Decadal-scale change of infiltration
characteristics of a tephra-mantled hillslope at Mount St Helens,
Washington, Hydrol. Process., 19, 3621–3630, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5863, 2005.
Major, J. J., Pierson, T. C., Dinehart, R. L., and Costa, J. E.: Sediment yield
following severe volcanic disturbance – A two-decade perspective from Mount
St. Helens, Geology, 28, 819–822, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28<819:SYFSVD>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Manville, V., White, J. D. L., and Hodgson, K. A.: Dynamic interactions between
lahars and stream flow: A case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand:
Discussion and reply: Discussion, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 112, 1149–1151, 2000.
Mead, S., Magill, C., and Hilton, J.: Rain-triggered lahar susceptibility
using a shallow landslide and surface erosion model, Geomorphology, 273,
168–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.08.022, 2016.
Mead, S. and Magill, C.: Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered
lahars, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 273, 168–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.08.022, 2017.
Mercalli, G. and Silvestri, O.: Le eruzioni dell'isola di Vulcano,
incominciate il 3 Augusto 1888 e terminate il 22 Marzo 1880, Ann. Uffic.
Cent. Meteorol. Geodin., 10, 213 pp., 1891.
Milledge, D. G., Bellugi, D., Mckean, J. A., Densmore, A. L., and Dietrich, W. E.: A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes,
J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 2481–2504,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003135, 2014.
Ng, C. W., Wang, B., and Tung, Y. K.: Three-dimensional numerical
investigations of groundwater responses in an unsaturated slope subjected to
various rainfall patterns, Can. Geotech. J., 38, 1049–1062,
2001.
Newhall, C. G. and Punongbayan, R. (Eds.): Fire and mud: eruptions and
lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, p. 1126, Quezon City, Philippine
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, 1996.
Newhall C. G. and Self S.: The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) – an estimate of
explosive magnitude for historical volcanism, J. Geophys. Res.,
87, 1231–1238, 1982.
Pierson, T. C.: Initiation and flow behavior of the 1980 Pine Creek and
Muddy river lahars, Mount St. Helens, Washington, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 96, 1056–1069, 1985.
Pierson, T. C.: Hyperconcentrated flow–transitional process between water
flow and debris flow, in: Debris-flow hazards and
related phenomena, edited by: Jakob, M. and Hungr, O., Springer-Praxis, Chichester, 159–202, 2005.
Pierson, T. C. and Major, J. J.: Hydrogeomorphic Effects of Explosive
Volcanic Eruptions on Drainage Basins, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 42, 469–507, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054913, 2014.
Pierson, T. C., Janda, R. J., Thouret, J. C., and Borrero, C. A.:
Perturbation and melting of snow and ice by the 13 November 1985 eruption of
Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, and consequent mobilization, flow and deposition
of lahars, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 41, 17–66,
1990.
Pierson, T. C., Janda, R. J., Umbal, J. V., and Daag, A. S.: Immediate and long-term
hazards from lahars and excess sedimentation in rivers draining Mount
Pinatubo, Philippines, U.S. Geol. Surv. Water-Resour. Invest. Rep., 92-4039, 1–35, 1992.
Pierson, T. C., Major, J. J., Amigo, Á., and Moreno, H.: Acute sedimentation
response to rainfall following the explosive phase of the 2008–2009 eruption
of Chaitén volcano, Chile, B. Volcanol., 75, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-013-0723-4, 2013.
Pirone, M., Papa, R., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: Analysis of safety
factor in unsaturated pyroclastic slope, Landslides and Engineered
Slopes, Experience, Theory and Practice, 1647–1654, CRC Press, 2016.
Pistolesi, M., Cioni, R., Bonadonna, C., Elissondo, M., Baumann, V.,
Bertagnini, A., Chiari, L., Gonzales, R., Rosi, M.,
and
Francalanci, L.: Complex dynamics of small-moderate volcanic events: the
example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile, Bull. Volcanol., 77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-014-0898-3, 2015.
Procter, J. N., Cronin, S. J., and Sheridan, M. F.: Evaluation of Titan2D modelling
forecasts for the 2007 Crater Lake break-out lahar, Mt. Ruapehu, New
Zealand, Geomorphology, 136, 95–105, 2012.
Rahardjo, H., Ong, T. H., Rezaur, R. B., and Leong, E. C.: Factors
controlling instability of homogeneous soil slopes under rainfall, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 133,
1532–1543, 2007.
Rodolfo, K. S. and Arguden, A. T.: Rain-lahar generation and sediment
delivery systems at Mayon Volcano, Philippines, Society for Sedimentary Geology (SEPM), 71–87, 1991.
Rosi, M., Di Traglia, F., Pistolesi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., and Bonadonna, C.: Dynamics of shallow hydrothermal eruptions: new insights from Vulcano's Breccia di Commenda eruption, Bull Volcanol., 80, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-018-1252-y, 2018.
Rossi, G., Catani, F., Leoni, L., Segoni, S., and Tofani, V.: HIRESSS: a physically based slope stability simulator for HPC applications, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-151-2013, 2013.
Salciarini, D., Godt, J. W., Savage, W. Z., Conversini, P., Baum, R. L., and
Michael, J. A.: Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow
landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy, Landslides, 3,
181–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0037-0, 2006.
Savage, W. Z., Godt, J. W., and Baum, R. L.: A model for spatially and
temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall
infiltration, 3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards
Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment, 10–12 September 2003, Davos, Switzerland, Vol. 1, 179–187,
2003.
Savage, W. Z., Godt, J. W., and Baum, R. L.: Modeling time-dependent areal slope
stability, Landslides: evaluation and stabilization, Balkema, Taylor &
Francis Group, London, 23–38, 2004.
Scott, W. E., Hoblitt, R. P., Torres, R. C., Self, S., Martinez, M. L., and Nillos,
T.: Pyroclastic flows of the June 15, 1991, climactic eruption of Mount
Pinatubo, Fire and Mud: eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, edited by: Newhall, C. G. and Punongbayan, R. S., 545–570, 1996.
Scott, K. M., Vallance, J. W., Kerle, N., Macías, J. L., Strauch, W., and
Devoli, G.: Catastrophic precipitation-triggered lahar at Casita volcano,
Nicaragua: Occurrence, bulking and transformation, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 30, 59–79, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1127, 2005.
Soddu, S., Delitala, G., Sciabica, M., and Barrocu, G.: Modelling
groundwater effects on slope stability, Materials and Geoenvironment, 50,
349–352, 2003.
Sorbino, G., Sica, C., Cascini, L., and
Cuomo, S.: On the forecasting of
flowslides triggering areas using physically based models, Proceedings of
1st North American landslides conference AEG Special Publication, 3–8 June 2007, Colorado, Vol. 1,
305–315, 2007.
Sorbino, G., Sica, C., and Cascini, L.: Susceptibility analysis of shallow
landslides source areas using physically based models, Nat. Hazards, 53,
313–332, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9431-y, 2010.
Srivastava, R. and Yeh, T. C. J.: Analytical solutions for
one-dimensional, transient infiltration toward the water table in
homogeneous and layered soils, Water Resour. Res., 27, 753–762,
1991.
Sulpizio, R., Zanchetta, G., Demi, F., Di Vito, M. A., Pareschi, M. T., and
Santacroce, R.: The Holocene syneruptive volcaniclastic debris flows in the
Vesuvian area: Geological data as a guide for hazard assessment, in: Neogene-Quaternary continental
margin volcanism: A Perspective from México: Geological Society of
America Special paper, edited by: Siebe,
C., Macias, J. L., and Aguirre-Díaz, J., 402, 203–221, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006.2402(10), 2006.
Taylor, D.: Fundamentals of soil mechanics, Chapman and Hall, Limited, New
York, 1948.
Thouret, J. C., Abdurachman, K. E., Bourdier, J. L., and Bronto, S.:
Origin, characteristics, and behaviour of lahars following the 1990 eruption
of Kelud volcano, eastern Java (Indonesia), B. Volcanol., 59,
460–480, 1998.
Tierz, P., Woodhouse, M. J., Phillips, J. C., Sandri, L., Selva, J.,
Marzocchi, W., and Odbert, H. M.: A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard
Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks, 5, 1–23,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00073, 2017.
Valentine, G. A., Palladino, D. M., Agosta, E., Teddeucci, J., and Triglia, R.:
Volcaniclastic aggradation in a semiarid environment, northwestern Vulcano
Island, Italy, Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., 110, 630–643, 1998.
Vallance, J. W. and Iverson, R. M.: Lahars and their Deposits, The
Encyclopedia of volcanoes, Academis, San Diego, 649–664, 2015.
Vallance, J. W. and Scott, K. M.: The Osceola Mudflow from Mount Rainier:
Sedimentology and hazard implications of a huge clay-rich debris
flow, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 109, 143–163, 1997.
Witham, C. S.: Volcanic disasters and incidents: a new database, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 148, 191–233, 2005.
Volentik, A. C. M., Connor, C. B., Connor, L. J., and Bonadonna, C.: Aspects of
volcanic hazard assessment for the Bataan nuclear power plant, Luzon
Peninsula, Philippines, Volcan. Tecton. Hazard Assess. Nucl. Facil.,
9, 229–256, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511635380.010, 2009.
Yamakoshi T. and Suwa H.: Post eruption characteristics of surface runoff
and sediment discharge on the slopes of pyroclastic-flow deposits, Mount
Unzen, Japan, Transactions, Japanese Geomorphological Union, 21-4,
469–497, 2000.
Yamamoto, H.: Erosion of the 1977–1978 tephra layers on a slope of Usu
Volcano, Hokkaido, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 5,
111–124, 1984.
Zanchetta, G., Sulpizio, R., Pareschi, M. T., Leoni, F. M., and Santacroce, R.:
Characteristics of May 5–6, 1998 volcaniclastic debris flows in the Sarno
area (Campania, southern Italy): Relationships to structural damage and
hazard zonation, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 133, 377–393,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00409-8, 2004.
Zanella, E., De Astis, G., Dellino, P., Lanza, R., and La Volpe, L.:
Magnetic fabric and remanent magnetization of pyroclastic surge deposits
from Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 93, 217–236, 1999.
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint