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IF3.102
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Abstracted/indexedShort summary
Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.
Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are...
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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 31 Jul 2019
Research article | 31 Jul 2019
The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies on the Mediterranean Sea coast
Piero Lionello et al.
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The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
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We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-171, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, 2020
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In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-178, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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One of the impacts of sea-level rise are chronic floodings, occuring at high tides under calm weather conditions. This hazard is a reason of concern in tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe island, in the French Indies, where chronic flood events has been reported since about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-177, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In the current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed and the finite element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying sea water and seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, 2020
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The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, 2020
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Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020
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Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-160, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The manuscript describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding sea shore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Poland, Wolin Island). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae – Fagetum type) on the Wolin Island is the only well-known site in the world. It was found that the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than sea shore erosion.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, 2020
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A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-132, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures such as power-grid substations.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, 2020
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, 2020
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Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-100, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper demonstrates a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga. The shape of the distribution is variable with time, it abruptly changed for several years and then suddenly got restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, then not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to a significant underestimation of the future risks potentially caused by the water level extreme events.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, 2020
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This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
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Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, 2020
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Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-80, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables that are wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, 2020
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Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
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On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
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Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, 2019
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This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2887–2904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, 2019
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Southern Italy coasts are at risk of being hit by tsunamis. To address risk mitigation policies and risk communication, the authors implemented a sample survey on 1021 interviewees living in the coastal municipalities of Calabria and Apulia. People’s risk perception appears low: almost half of the sample considers tsunamis unlikely. Relevant differences emerge as a result of different risk perception in Tyrrhenian Calabria, where people are more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, 2019
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This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia, tsunami. It provides evidence covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and coastal landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. They are also important for mitigation, regional planning, and development.
Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Takuma Kotani, Yu Otake, and Toshikazu Kitano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2619–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that can consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of wave heights. As a result, the maximum value of the expected aggregate damage probability was approximately 3.0 % higher in the case considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the importance of considering wave height correlation and the usefulness of copula modeling in evaluating the tsunami risk of a building portfolio.
Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2551–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, 2019
Chris Houser, Jacob Lehner, Nathan Cherry, and Phil Wernette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2541–2549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, 2019
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On many beaches, lifeguards set out flags to warn beach users of the surf and rip hazard based on the regional surf forecast and careful observation. There is a potential that the chosen flag does not accurately reflect the potential risk. Results of a machine learning analysis suggest that the greatest number of rescues occurred on days when the lifeguard flew a more cautious flag than the model predicted. It is argued that that beach users may be discounting lifeguard warnings.
Scott B. Armstrong and Eli D. Lazarus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2497–2511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, 2019
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This work examines relationships between coastal hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to describe trajectories of risk at the county scale along the US Atlantic coast over the past 5 decades. Our findings suggest that modelling efforts to predict future coastal risk need to address feedbacks between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to capture emergent patterns of risk in space and time.
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2295–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, 2019
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Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action; however, it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2183–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, 2019
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For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, and beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incidents, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward-flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications for future beach safety management and education of beach users.
Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2067–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, 2019
Elvira Armenio, Francesca De Serio, Michele Mossa, and Antonio F. Petrillo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1937–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, 2019
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The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion–erosion, based on the joint use of data analysis, statistical methods and one-line numerical modeling. A chain method is proposed, based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modeling. The coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys and seabed characterization.
Sergey Gurbatov and Efim Pelinovsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1925–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, 2019
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Hazardous sea waves that have irregular structures approach the coast very often. They should be characterized by their statistical characteristics. They are found here within an analytical theory of shallow-water wave run-up on a beach without breaking. Obtained distribution functions can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.
Victor Sardina, David Walsh, Kanoa Koyanagi, Stuart Weinstein, Nathan Becker, Charles McCreery, and Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1865–1880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, 2019
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We quantified the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region after accounting for hurricane-related seismic station outages. Within the eastern Caribbean region the hurricanes exacerbated outages to an astonishing 82 % of the available 76 stations. This resulted in up to 02:33 and 04:33 min added to the earthquake detection and response times, effectively knocking out PTWC's local tsunami warning capabilities in the region.
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Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.
Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are...
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