Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018

Research article 22 Jun 2018

Research article | 22 Jun 2018

A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment

Stefania Bartolini et al.

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Cited articles

Aspinall, W. P.: Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions, in: Statistics in volcanology, edited by: Mader, H. M., Coles, S. G., Connor, C. B., and Connor, L. J., Special Publication of IAVCEI,Geological Society of London, 2006. 
Bartolini, S., Cappello, A., Martí, J., and Del Negro, C.: QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3031–3042, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3031-2013, 2013. 
Bartolini, S., Sobradelo, R., and Martí, J.: ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators, Comput. Geosci., 93, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2016.05.002, 2016. 
Becerril, L., Cappello, A., Galindo, I., Neri, M., and Del Negro, C.: Spatial probability distribution of future volcanic eruptions at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 257, 21–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.005, 2013. 
Becerril, L., Bartolini, S., Sobradelo, R., Martí, J., Morales, J. M., and Galindo, I.: Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1853–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1853-2014, 2014. 
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Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
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