Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Situational sea awareness technologies for maritime safety...
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 13 Apr 2017
Research article | 13 Apr 2017
SeaConditions: a web and mobile service for safer professional and recreational activities in the Mediterranean Sea
Giovanni Coppini et al.
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Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
Alessandro D'Anca, Laura Conte, Paola Nassisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretì, Marco Mancini, Alessandra Nuzzo, Maria Mirto, Gianandrea Mannarini, Giovanni Coppini, Sandro Fiore, and Giovanni Aloisio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, 2017
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Updated situational sea awareness requires an advanced technological system to make data available for decision makers, improving the capacity of intervention and supporting users in managing emergency situations due to natural hazards. The TESSA data platform meets the request of near-real-time access to heterogeneous data with different accuracy, resolution or degrees of aggregation providing efficient and secure data access and strong support to operational oceanographic high-level services.
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, 2017
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SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, 2016
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A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
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A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, 2016
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An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016
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Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016
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In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, 2016
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VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
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We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Ruth Petrie, Sébastien Denvil, Sasha Ames, Guillaume Levavasseur, Sandro Fiore, Chris Allen, Fabrizio Antonio, Katharina Berger, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Luca Cinquini, Eli Dart, Prashanth Dwarakanath, Kelsey Druken, Ben Evans, Laurent Franchistéguy, Sébastien Gardoll, Eric Gerbier, Mark Greenslade, David Hassell, Alan Iwi, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, Lukasz Lacinski, Maria Mirto, Atef Ben Nasser, Paola Nassisi, Eric Nienhouse, Sergey Nikonov, Alessandra Nuzzo, Clare Richards, Syazwan Ridzwan, Michel Rixen, Kim Serradell, Kate Snow, Ag Stephens, Martina Stockhause, Hans Vahlenkamp, and Rick Wagner
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 629–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-629-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-629-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the infrastructure that is used to distribute Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data around the world for analysis by the climate research community. It is expected that there will be ~20 PB (petabytes) of data available for analysis. The operations team performed a series of preparation "data challenges" to ensure all components of the infrastructure were operational for when the data became available for timely data distribution and subsequent analysis.
Ric Crocker, Jan Maksymczuk, Marion Mittermaier, Marina Tonani, and Christine Pequignet
Ocean Sci., 16, 831–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, 2020
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We assessed the potential benefit of a new verification metric, developed by the atmospheric community, to assess high-resolution ocean models against coarser-resolution configurations. Typical verification metrics often do not show any benefit when high-resolution models are compared to lower-resolution configurations. The new metric showed improvements in higher-resolution models away from the grid scale. The technique can be applied to both deterministic and ensemble forecasts.
Alberto Ribotti, Roberto Sorgente, and Mireno Borghini
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1287–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1287-2020, 2020
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From May 2000 to January 2004 seven cruises in the Sea of Sardinia collected physical, chemical and biological data. They contributed to knowledge of the local circulation and its interaction with the general Mediterranean one. Accurate and sustained quality assurance for physical sensors was ensured through pre- and postcruise calibration (described here) and verified during cruises by redundant sensors and instruments. Hydrological data are in two open-access datasets in the SEANOE repository.
Marina Tonani, Peter Sykes, Robert R. King, Niall McConnell, Anne-Christine Péquignet, Enda O'Dea, Jennifer A. Graham, Jeff Polton, and John Siddorn
Ocean Sci., 15, 1133–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, 2019
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A new high-resolution ocean model at 1.5 km has replaced the 7 km system for delivering short-term forecasts of the North-West European Shelf seas. The products (temperature, salinity, currents, and sea surface height) are available on the Copernicus Marine Service catalogue. This study focuses on the high-resolution impact on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Results show that the high-resolution model is better at resolving the variability of the physical variables.
Gianandrea Mannarini and Lorenzo Carelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3449–3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3449-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3449-2019, 2019
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The VISIR ship-routing model is updated in order to deal with ocean currents.
The optimal tracks we computed through VISIR in the Atlantic ocean show great seasonal and regional variability, following a variable influence of surface gravity waves and currents. We assess how these tracks contribute to voyage energy-efficiency gains through a standard indicator (EEOI) of the International Maritime Organization. Also, the new model features are validated against an exact analytical benchmark.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, John Siddorn, Robert R. King, Marina Tonani, Andrew Saulter, Peter Sykes, Anne-Christine Pequignet, Graham P. Weedon, Tamzin Palmer, Joanna Staneva, and Lucy Bricheno
Ocean Sci., 15, 669–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, 2019
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Forecasts of ocean temperature, salinity, currents, and sea height can be improved by linking state-of-the-art ocean and wave models, so that they can interact to better represent the real world. We test this approach in an ocean model of north-west Europe which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state. The intention is to implement the system described in this study for operational use so that improved information can be provided to users of ocean forecast data.
Charles Troupin, Ananda Pascual, Simon Ruiz, Antonio Olita, Benjamin Casas, Félix Margirier, Pierre-Marie Poulain, Giulio Notarstefano, Marc Torner, Juan Gabriel Fernández, Miquel Àngel Rújula, Cristian Muñoz, Eva Alou, Inmaculada Ruiz, Antonio Tovar-Sánchez, John T. Allen, Amala Mahadevan, and Joaquín Tintoré
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-129-2019, 2019
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The AlborEX (the Alboran Sea Experiment) consisted of an experiment in the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean Sea) that took place between 25 and 31 May 2014, and use a wide range of oceanographic sensors. The dataset provides information on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale processes taking place in a frontal area. This paper presents the measurements obtained from these sensors and describes their particularities: scale, spatial and temporal resolutions, measured variables, etc.
Antonio Bonaduce, Mounir Benkiran, Elisabeth Remy, Pierre Yves Le Traon, and Gilles Garric
Ocean Sci., 14, 1405–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, 2018
Ali Aydoğdu, Nadia Pinardi, Emin Özsoy, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Özgür Gürses, and Alicia Karspeck
Ocean Sci., 14, 999–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, 2018
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A 6-year simulation of the Turkish Straits System is presented. The simulation is performed by a model using unstructured triangular mesh and realistic atmospheric forcing. The dynamics and circulation of the Marmara Sea are analysed and the mean state of the system is discussed on annual averages. Volume fluxes computed throughout the simulation are presented and the response of the model to severe storms is shown. Finally, it was possible to assess the kinetic energy budget in the Marmara Sea.
Ali Aydoğdu, Timothy J. Hoar, Tomislava Vukicevic, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nadia Pinardi, Alicia Karspeck, Jonathan Hendricks, Nancy Collins, Francesca Macchia, and Emin Özsoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 537–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, 2018
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This study presents, to our knowledge, the first data assimilation experiments in the Sea of Marmara. We propose a FerryBox network for monitoring the state of the sea and show that assimilation of the temperature and salinity improves the forecasts in the basin. The flow of the Bosphorus helps to propagate the error reduction. The study can be taken as a step towards a marine forecasting system in the Sea of Marmara that will help to improve the forecasts in the adjacent Black and Aegean seas.
Federica Pessini, Antonio Olita, Yuri Cotroneo, and Angelo Perilli
Ocean Sci., 14, 669–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-669-2018, 2018
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The Algerian Basin plays a key role in the WMED, and the formation and propagation of mesoscale structures strongly influence its circulation. They transport water masses, heat, salts and other properties and also have an impact on chlorophyll and fisheries. We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of the eddies by applying a detection and tracking method to altimetry data. The results show mesoscale structures with different origins, behaviours and energies.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
Mario Scalas, Palmalisa Marra, Luca Tedesco, Raffaele Quarta, Emanuele Cantoro, Antonio Tumolo, Davide Rollo, and Marco Spagnulo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 185–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-185-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-185-2017, 2017
Alessandro D'Anca, Laura Conte, Paola Nassisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretì, Marco Mancini, Alessandra Nuzzo, Maria Mirto, Gianandrea Mannarini, Giovanni Coppini, Sandro Fiore, and Giovanni Aloisio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, 2017
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Updated situational sea awareness requires an advanced technological system to make data available for decision makers, improving the capacity of intervention and supporting users in managing emergency situations due to natural hazards. The TESSA data platform meets the request of near-real-time access to heterogeneous data with different accuracy, resolution or degrees of aggregation providing efficient and secure data access and strong support to operational oceanographic high-level services.
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, 2017
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SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Zhaoyi Wang, Andrea Storto, Nadia Pinardi, Guimei Liu, and Hui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 17–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, 2017
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, 2016
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A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
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A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Maria Gabriella Gaeta, Achilleas G. Samaras, Ivan Federico, Renata Archetti, Francesco Maicu, and Giuliano Lorenzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2071–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2071-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2071-2016, 2016
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The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modeling system, based on a multiple–nesting approach and open–source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in southern Italy, scaling large–scale oceanographic model results to high–resolution coupled-wave 3-D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in Taranto. The spatial and temporal high-resolution simulations were performed using the open source.
Emanuela Fiori, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Cristina Mazziotti, and Carla Rita Ferrari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, 2016
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This study shows the capability of the numerical model in reproducing the trophic index (TRIX) calculated from in situ data. The ecosystem simulations can represent an important support for monitoring activities, allowing the use of TRIX to be extended to larger areas where in situ sampling activities are difficult to implement. The model TRIX was calculated for the whole Adriatic Sea, showing trophic differences across the Adriatic Sea.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, 2016
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An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Antonia Di Maio, Mathew V. Martin, and Roberto Sorgente
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1979–1997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1979-2016, 2016
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Meteocean and environmental forecasting is increasingly being used in operational decision-making in the sea for demographic, geographic and strategic applications. It also used to force the stochastic models used for search and rescue planning. The stochastic models have many limitations relating to the leeway calculation, and we tried to overcome them; we hope to contribute by providing leeway drift formulae for practical use.
Jenny Pistoia, Nadia Pinardi, Paolo Oddo, Matthew Collins, Gerasimos Korres, and Yann Drillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, 2016
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In this work we developed a new multi-model super-ensemble method to estimate sea surface temperature, an important product of ocean analysis systems. We find that ensemble size, quality, type of members and the training period length are all important elements of the MMSE methodology and require careful calibration. We show that with a rather limited but overconfident data set (with a low bias of the starting ensemble members) the RMSE analysis can be improved.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016
Short summary
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Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016
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In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
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This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, 2016
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This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, 2016
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VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
A. Olita, I. Iermano, L. Fazioli, A. Ribotti, C. Tedesco, F. Pessini, and R. Sorgente
Ocean Sci., 11, 657–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-657-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-657-2015, 2015
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The paper studies the impact of the use of relative winds (i.e., winds minus ocean currents) to compute heat and momentum fluxes at sea surface. This was done in an area interested by mesoscale eddies and a local boundary current.
Impact is relevant both for heat and momentum fluxes.
Major differences can be observed in areas with large mesoscale activity.
Results suggest that surface currents component in fluxes computation should not be neglected even at such scales and latitudes.
P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, 2014
A. Olita, S. Sparnocchia, S. Cusí, L. Fazioli, R. Sorgente, J. Tintoré, and A. Ribotti
Ocean Sci., 10, 657–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-657-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-657-2014, 2014
A. Guarnieri, A. J. Souza, N. Pinardi, and P. Traykovski
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Lardner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851–1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, 2013
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Archetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1871–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Spatially compounded surge events: an example from hurricanes Matthew and Florence
A cross-scale study for compound flooding processes during Hurricane Florence
Reconstruction of flow conditions from 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits at the Phra Thong island using a deep neural network inverse model
Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018
An efficient two-layer landslide-tsunami numerical model: effects of momentum transfer validated with physical experiments of waves generated by granular landslides
Regional analysis of multivariate compound flooding potential: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea
Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 1: Rigid slides
Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 2: Granular slides
Timescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of Guadeloupe
Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate
Study on the influence of the seafloor soft soil layer on seismic ground motion
Influence of hydrometeorological hazards and sea coast morphodynamics on development of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum (Wolin island, the southern Baltic Sea)
A Bayesian network approach to modelling rip current drownings and shore-break wave injuries
Trivariate copula to design coastal structures
Beachgoers' ability to identify rip currents at a beach in situ
Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches
Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study
Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)
Laboratory study of non-linear wave–wave interactions of extreme focused waves in the nearshore zone
Introduction to the special issue
A nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coasts
The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty
La Palma landslide tsunami: calibrated wave source and assessment of impact on French territories
Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios
Investigating beach erosion related with tsunami sediment transport at Phra Thong Island, Thailand, caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
Tsunami damage to ports: Cataloguing damage to create fragility functions from the 2011 Tohoku event
Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, China
A statistical analysis of rogue waves in the southern North Sea
Quantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea
Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century
Arctic tsunamis threaten coastal landscapes and communities – survey of Karrat Isfjord 2017 tsunami effects in Nuugaatsiaq, western Greenland
Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary
Uncertainties in coastal flood risk assessments in small island developing states
Lagrangian modelling of a person lost at sea during the Adriatic scirocco storm of 29 October 2018
Deep submarine landslide contribution to the 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami
Extreme storm tides in the German Bight (North Sea) and their potential for amplification
Coastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western Mediterranean
Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges using the extremogram approach
Extreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coast
Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay
Run-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
Reciprocal Green's functions and the quick forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis
High-accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using lidar data
The 22 December 2018 Mount Anak Krakatau volcanogenic tsunami on Sunda Strait coasts, Indonesia: tsunami and damage characteristics
Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions
Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey
Post-event field survey of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, 2021
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Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe'eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1703–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, 2021
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Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contributed to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1667–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, 2021
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A case study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-50, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, 2021
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Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, 2021
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, 2021
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Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
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Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021
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In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Elias de Korte, Bruno Castelle, and Eric Tellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-36, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions, and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, 2021
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-412, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Sea-level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections under deep uncertainties and show that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea-level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020
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Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3387-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3279-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues and future projections
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-367, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Venice is an iconic place and a paradigm of a huge historical and cultural value at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow and even accelerate through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of relative sea level and its extremes at Venice and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for its present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, 2020
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We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic
generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlic, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-361, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review in storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe, and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Venice Lagoon. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice, and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on how a future forecasting system should look like.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020, 2020
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The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020
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Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
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This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-355, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Port assets are vulnerable to the physical damage caused by tsunamis. Ports are critical nodes in international trade and disruptions to ports would affect global supply chain. For the first time, tsunami damage data is being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides vulnerability curves which describe the probability of damage for different port industries in different tsunami intensities.
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2777-2020, 2020
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This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
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Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Mateusz C. Strzelecki and Marek W. Jaskólski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, 2020
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To date, the effects of tsunamis have been mainly reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones. Rare records of polar tsunamis may partly reflect the very low population densities, the short written history, and little coastal geological work focused on the sedimentary record of palaeotsunamis. We report the results of the field survey of post-tsunami damage in the Nuugaatsiaq settlement in Greenland, which on 17 June 2017 was hit by three tsunami waves triggered by a landslide.
Philip M. Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan A. Talke, Mario Giampieri, and Kytt MacManus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2415–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020, 2020
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The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
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We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, 2020
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In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, 2020
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The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, 2020
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Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020
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Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, 2020
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A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, 2020
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, 2020
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Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, 2020
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This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
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Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, 2020
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Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, 2020
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Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
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On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
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Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, 2019
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This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2887–2904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, 2019
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Southern Italy coasts are at risk of being hit by tsunamis. To address risk mitigation policies and risk communication, the authors implemented a sample survey on 1021 interviewees living in the coastal municipalities of Calabria and Apulia. People’s risk perception appears low: almost half of the sample considers tsunamis unlikely. Relevant differences emerge as a result of different risk perception in Tyrrhenian Calabria, where people are more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, 2019
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This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia, tsunami. It provides evidence covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and coastal landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. They are also important for mitigation, regional planning, and development.
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Short summary
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time...
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