Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Ana Graciela Ulke
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Unidad Mixta Internacional (UMI) – Instituto Franco Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (IFAECI), CNRS – UMI-IFAECI-CNRS-3351, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Marcela M. Torres Brizuela
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Graciela B. Raga
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, CDMX, Mexico
Droplet Measurement Technologies, Boulder, CO, USA
No articles found.
Mahen Konwar, Benjamin Werden, Edward C. Fortner, Sudarsan Bera, Mercy Varghese, Subharthi Chowdhuri, Kurt Hibert, Philip Croteau, John Jayne, Manjula Canagaratna, Neelam Malap, Sandeep Jayakumar, Shivsai A. Dixit, Palani Murugavel, Duncan Axisa, Darrel Baumgardner, Peter F. DeCarlo, Doug R. Worsnop, and Thara Prabhakaran
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for AMTShort summary
In a warm cloud seeding experiment hygroscopic particles are released to alter cloud processes to induce early raindrops. During Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment, airborne mini-Aerosol Mass Spectrometers analyze the particles on which clouds form. The seeded clouds showed higher concentrations of Chlorine (Cl) and potassium (K), the oxidizing agents of flares. Small cloud droplet concentrations increased, and seeding particles were detected in deep cloud depths.
Bighnaraj Sarangi, Darrel Baumgardner, Benjamin Bolaños-Rosero, and Olga L. Mayol-Bracero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9647–9661,Short summary
Here, the fluorescent characteristics and cloud-forming efficiency of aerosols at an urban site in Puerto Rico are discussed. The results from this pilot study highlight the capabilities of ultraviolet-induced fluorescence (UV-IF) measurements for characterizing the properties of fluorescing aerosol particles, as they relate to the daily evolution of primary biological aerosol particles. This work has established a database of measurements on which future, longer-term studies will be initiated.
Diana L. Pereira, Irma Gavilán, Consuelo Letechipía, Graciela B. Raga, Teresa Pi Puig, Violeta Mugica-Álvarez, Harry Alvarez-Ospina, Irma Rosas, Leticia Martinez, Eva Salinas, Erika T. Quintana, Daniel Rosas, and Luis A. Ladino
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6435–6447,Short summary
Airborne particles were i) collected in an agricultural fields and ii) generated in the laboratory from agricultural soil samples to analyze their ice nucleating abilities. It was found that the size and chemical composition of the Mexican agricultural dust particles influence their ice nucleating behavior, where the organic components are likely responsible for their efficiency as INPs. The INP concentrations from the present study are comparable to those from higher latitudes.
Graciela B. Raga, Darrel Baumgardner, Blanca Rios, Yanet Díaz-Esteban, Alejandro Jaramillo, Martin Gallagher, Bastien Sauvage, Pawel Wolff, and Gary Lloyd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2269–2292,Short summary
The In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) is a small fleet of commercial aircraft that carry a suite of meteorological, gas, aerosol, and cloud sensors and have been measuring worldwide for almost 9 years, since late 2011. Extreme ice events (EIEs) have been identified from the IAGOS cloud measurements and linked to surface emissions for biomass and fossil fuel consumption. The results reported here are highly relevant for climate change and flight operations forecasting.
Elvis Torres-Delgado, Darrel Baumgardner, and Olga L. Mayol-Bracero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18011–18027,Short summary
African dust aerosols can travel thousands of kilometers and reach the Caribbean and other places, where they can serve as ice and cloud condensation nuclei and alter precipitation patterns. Cloud microphysical properties (droplet number and size) were measured in a Caribbean tropical montane cloud forest along with models and satellite products. The results of the study suggest that meteorology and air mass history are more important for cloud processes than aerosols transported from Africa.
Fernanda Córdoba, Carolina Ramírez-Romero, Diego Cabrera, Graciela B. Raga, Javier Miranda, Harry Alvarez-Ospina, Daniel Rosas, Bernardo Figueroa, Jong Sung Kim, Jacqueline Yakobi-Hancock, Talib Amador, Wilfrido Gutierrez, Manuel García, Allan K. Bertram, Darrel Baumgardner, and Luis A. Ladino
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4453–4470,Short summary
Most precipitation from deep clouds over the continents and in the intertropical convergence zone is strongly influenced by the presence of ice crystals whose formation requires the presence of aerosol particles. In the present study, the ability of three different aerosol types (i.e., marine aerosol, biomass burning, and African dust) to facilitate ice particle formation was assessed in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico.
Carolina Ramírez-Romero, Alejandro Jaramillo, María F. Córdoba, Graciela B. Raga, Javier Miranda, Harry Alvarez-Ospina, Daniel Rosas, Talib Amador, Jong Sung Kim, Jacqueline Yakobi-Hancock, Darrel Baumgardner, and Luis A. Ladino
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 239–253,Short summary
Field measurements were conducted to confirm the arrival of African dust on the Yucatàn Peninsula. Aerosol particles were monitored at ground level by different online and off-line sensors. Several particulate matter peaks were observed with a relative increase in their levels of up to 500 % with respect to background conditions. Based on the chemical composition, back trajectories, vertical profiles, reanalysis, and satellite images, it was found that the peaks are linked to African dust.
Lester Alfonso, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14917–14932,Short summary
The aim of this paper is to find some observational evidence of gel formation in clouds, by analyzing the distribution of the largest droplet at an early stage of cloud formation, and to show that the mass of the gel (
lucky droplet) is a mixture of Gaussian and Gumbel distributions. The results obtained may help advance the understanding of precipitation formation and are a novel application of the theory of critical phenomena in cloud physics.
Luis A. Ladino, Graciela B. Raga, Harry Alvarez-Ospina, Manuel A. Andino-Enríquez, Irma Rosas, Leticia Martínez, Eva Salinas, Javier Miranda, Zyanya Ramírez-Díaz, Bernardo Figueroa, Cedric Chou, Allan K. Bertram, Erika T. Quintana, Luis A. Maldonado, Agustín García-Reynoso, Meng Si, and Victoria E. Irish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6147–6165,Short summary
This study presents results obtained during a field campaign conducted in the tropical village of Sisal located on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Air masses arriving in Sisal during the passage of cold fronts have surprisingly higher ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations than the campaign average. The high concentrations of INPs at T > −15 C and the supermicron size of the INPs suggest that biological particles may have been a significant contributor to the INP population in Sisal.
Viswanathan Bringi, Merhala Thurai, and Darrel Baumgardner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1377–1384,Short summary
Raindrop fall velocities are important for rain rate estimation, soil erosion studies and in numerical modelling of rain formation in clouds. The assumption that the fall velocity is uniquely related to drop size is made inherently based on laboratory measurements under still air conditions from nearly 68 years ago. There have been very few measurements of drop fall speeds in natural rain under both still and turbulent wind conditions. We report on fall speed measurements in natural rain shafts.
Anja Costa, Jessica Meyer, Armin Afchine, Anna Luebke, Gebhard Günther, James R. Dorsey, Martin W. Gallagher, Andre Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, Darrel Baumgardner, Heike Wex, and Martina Krämer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12219–12238,Short summary
The paper presents 38 h of in situ cloud spectrometer observations of microphysical cloud properties in the Arctic, midlatitudes and tropics. The clouds are classified via particle concentrations, size distributions, and – as a novelty – small particle aspherical fractions. Cloud-type profiles are given for different temperatures and locations. The results confine regions where different cloud transformation processes occurred and emphasise the importance of small particle shape detection.
Lester Alfonso and Graciela B. Raga
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6895–6905,Short summary
The main hypothesis of this work is that the discrepancy between the observations and the theoretical models of precipitation formation in warm clouds could be explained by the formation of embryo droplets in the context of a sol–gel transition. By using novel numerical techniques, our calculations show that after the formation of the raindrop embryo, the droplet mass distribution strongly differs from the results obtained by using the traditional approaches.
Ulrich Schumann, Robert Baumann, Darrel Baumgardner, Sarah T. Bedka, David P. Duda, Volker Freudenthaler, Jean-Francois Gayet, Andrew J. Heymsfield, Patrick Minnis, Markus Quante, Ehrhard Raschke, Hans Schlager, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Christiane Voigt, and Zhien Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 403–438,Short summary
The initially linear clouds often seen behind aircraft are known as contrails. Contrails are prototype cirrus clouds forming under well-known conditions, but with less certain life cycle and climate effects. This paper collects contrail data from a large set of measurements and compares them among each other and with models. The observations show consistent contrail properties over a wide range of aircraft and atmosphere conditions. The dataset is available for further research.
Bradford S. Barrett and Graciela B. Raga
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15359–15370,Short summary
Surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City frequently exceed the Mexican standard and have proven difficult to forecast due to changes in meteorological conditions at its tropical location. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is largely responsible for intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Surface ozone in Mexico City is modulated by the MJO through its circulation pattern in the upper troposphere and its associated cloudiness, thus modulating solar radiation reaching the boundary layer.
Mark Hernandez, Anne E. Perring, Kevin McCabe, Greg Kok, Gary Granger, and Darrel Baumgardner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3283–3292,Short summary
We have performed laboratory experiments examining a large set of known bacterial, fungal and pollen species using a Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS). The instrumental response is shown to be sufficiently distinct for these classes of particles to distinguish between them, and this library will provide a framework for interpretation of UV-induced fluorescence measurements of atmospheric bioaerosol. Atmospheric implications and instrumental considerations are discussed.
Anna E. Luebke, Armin Afchine, Anja Costa, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Jessica Meyer, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Linnea M. Avallone, Darrel Baumgardner, and Martina Krämer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5793–5809,Short summary
In this study, we present observational evidence to show that two distinct types of cirrus clouds exist – in situ origin and liquid origin cirrus. These two types differ by their formation mechanism and other properties. Airborne, in-cloud measurements of cloud ice water content (IWC), ice crystal concentration (Nice), and ice crystal size from the 2014 ML-CIRRUS campaign provide cloud samples that have been divided and analyzed according to their origin type.
María José Granados-Muñoz, Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda, Darrel Baumgardner, Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado, Daniel Pérez-Ramírez, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Igor Veselovskii, Hassan Lyamani, Antonio Valenzuela, Francisco José Olmo, Gloria Titos, Javier Andrey, Anatoli Chaikovsky, Oleg Dubovik, Manuel Gil-Ojeda, and Lucas Alados-Arboledas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1113–1133,Short summary
A Saharan dust event is studied in detail using ground-based remote sensing measurements from lidar technology, as well as sun- and star-photometers. The use of combined techniques allows for obtaining both profiles and column-integrated microphysical properties during night and daytime. Besides, for the first time a validation of the CAS-POL depolarization measurements and LIRIC profiles is performed, thanks to the availability of aircraft in situ measurements, obtaining reasonable agreement.
Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, Anna Luebke, Armin Afchine, Nicole Spelten, Anja Costa, Jessica Meyer, Martin Zöger, Jessica Smith, Robert L. Herman, Bernhard Buchholz, Volker Ebert, Darrel Baumgardner, Stephan Borrmann, Marcus Klingebiel, and Linnea Avallone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3463–3483,Short summary
A guide to cirrus clouds is compiled from extensive model simulations and aircraft observations. Two types of cirrus are found: rather thin in situ cirrus that form directly as ice and thicker liquid origin cirrus consisting of uplifted frozen liquid drops. Over Europe, thinner in situ and liquid origin cirrus occur often together with frontal systems, while over the US and the Tropics, thick liquid origin cirrus formed in large convective systems are detected more frequently.
A. Retama, D. Baumgardner, G. B. Raga, G. R. McMeeking, and J. W. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9693–9709,Short summary
Extended measurements of equivalent black carbon (eBC) derived from light absorption measurements have been made with a PAX over a 13 month period. The daily trends in eBC and other co-pollutants are evaluated with respect to season. The primary factors that led to large changes between the wet and dry seasons are the accelerated vertical mixing of boundary layer and free tropospheric air, by the formation of clouds and decreased actinic flux that reduces the production of ozone.
K. Beswick, D. Baumgardner, M. Gallagher, A. Volz-Thomas, P. Nedelec, K.-Y. Wang, and S. Lance
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1443–1457,
G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2319–2330,
Related subject area
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311,Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754,Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369,Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044,Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006,Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971,Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691,Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348,Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855,Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrasstarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short-and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths we used the lava flow model MrlavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as test case for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which is likely to be more destructive.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029,Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265,Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108,Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054,Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163,Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517,Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460,Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377,Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665,Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437,Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638,Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132,Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053,Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739,Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217,Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397,Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449,Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363,Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263,Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610,Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281,Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770,Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534,Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63,
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157,Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879,Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719,Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355,Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951,Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895,Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769,Short summary
In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689,Short summary
Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144,Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874,Short summary
The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704,Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
D. Andronico and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–40,Short summary
The paper focuses on the potential health risks caused by the sub-10 micron fraction of volcanic ash (PM10) following explosive eruptions of Mt. Etna (Italy). We present the results of a study on the ash concentration in the air of urbanized areas after the 15 November 2011 lava fountain and the related tephra fallout, causing high levels of PM10 in the air. We conclude by hoping that due attention will be given to the impact of ash fallout on the Etnean territory in the future.
A. M. Syavulisembo, H.-B. Havenith, B. Smets, N. d'Oreye, and J. Marti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2391–2400,Short summary
The Virunga area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to permanently cope with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of about every 3 years – mostly in the form of lava flows – at least 30 times. In order to identify a useful tool for hazard assessment at the Goma Volcanological Observatory, we tested VORIS, a freely available software (www.gvb-csic.es).
G. Córdoba, G. Villarosa, M. F. Sheridan, J. G. Viramonte, D. Beigt, and G. Salmuni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 757–766,Short summary
This paper shows the results of secondary lahar modelling in Villa La Angostura town (Neuquén-Argentina) based on the Two-Phase-Titan modelling computer code. Possible occurrence of secondary lahars that could reach the city was analysed. The procedure allowed simulation of the path of flows from Florencia, Las Piedritas and Colorado creeks, which are the most influential streams in Villa La Angostura. The output of the modelling is a valuable tool for city planning and risk management.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415,
L. Caballero and L. Capra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3345–3355,
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The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air...