Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 10 Aug 2016
Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping
Michalis I. Vousdoukas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 41100, Mitilene, Lesbos, Greece
Evangelos Voukouvalas
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Lorenzo Mentaschi
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Francesco Dottori
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Alessio Giardino
Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands
Dimitrios Bouziotas
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands
Alessandra Bianchi
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Peter Salamon
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Luc Feyen
European Commission, Joint European Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
Related authors
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show the development of high-resolution simulations of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea employing different atmospheric forcing data and physical configurations. Traditional metrics favor a simulation forced by a coarser database and employing a less sophisticated setup. Closer examination allows us to identify a baroclinic model forced by a high-resolution dataset as being better able to capture the variability and peak values of the storm surge.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Isavela N. Monioudi, Adonis F. Velegrakis, Antonis E. Chatzipavlis, Anastasios Rigos, Theophanis Karambas, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Thomas Hasiotis, Nikoletta Koukourouvli, Pascal Peduzzi, Eva Manoutsoglou, Serafim E. Poulos, and Michael B. Collins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 449–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (Greece) and assess the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) impacts under different scenarios. Results suggest that Aegean beaches may be particularly vulnerable to SLRs, where severe impacts which could be devastating are projected by 2100. Appropriate coastal "setback zone" policies should be adopted, as they form a significant environmental and economic resource.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show the development of high-resolution simulations of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea employing different atmospheric forcing data and physical configurations. Traditional metrics favor a simulation forced by a coarser database and employing a less sophisticated setup. Closer examination allows us to identify a baroclinic model forced by a high-resolution dataset as being better able to capture the variability and peak values of the storm surge.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Margarita Choulga, Francesca Moschini, Cinzia Mazzetti, Stefania Grimaldi, Juliana Disperati, Hylke Beck, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2991–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 dataset is a new set of high-resolution maps for land type (e.g. lake, forest), soil properties and population water needs at approximately 2 and 6 km at the Equator, covering Europe and the globe (excluding Antarctica). We describe what and how new high-resolution information can be used to create the dataset. The paper suggests that the dataset can be used as input for river, weather or other models, as well as for statistical descriptions of the region of interest.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Vera Thiemig, Goncalo N. Gomes, Jon O. Skøien, Markus Ziese, Armin Rauthe-Schöch, Elke Rustemeier, Kira Rehfeldt, Jakub P. Walawender, Christine Kolbe, Damien Pichon, Christoph Schweim, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3249–3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
EMO-5 is a free and open European high-resolution (5 km), sub-daily, multi-variable (precipitation, temperatures, wind speed, solar radiation, vapour pressure), multi-decadal meteorological dataset based on quality-controlled observations coming from almost 30 000 stations across Europe, and is produced in near real-time. EMO-5 (v1) covers the time period from 1990 to 2019. In this paper, we have provided insight into the source data, the applied methods, and the quality assessment of EMO-5.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Alessandra Bianchi, Jon Skoien, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1549–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of hazard maps for river flooding for Europe and the Mediterranean basin. The maps depict inundation extent and depth for flood probabilities for up to 1-in-500-year flood hazards and are based on hydrological and hydrodynamic models driven by observed climatology. The maps can identify two-thirds of the flood extent reported by official flood maps, with increasing skill for higher-magnitude floods. The maps are used for evaluating present and future impacts of river floods.
Josias Láng-Ritter, Marc Berenguer, Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, and Daniel Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Peter Salamon, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, and Florian Pappenberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new river discharge reanalysis dataset is produced operationally by coupling ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, with the hydrological modelling component of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° at a daily time step and is freely available from 1979 until near real time. The evaluation against observations shows that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful in 86 % of catchments.
W. Wagner, V. Freeman, S. Cao, P. Matgen, M. Chini, P. Salamon, N. McCormick, S. Martinis, B. Bauer-Marschallinger, C. Navacchi, M. Schramm, C. Reimer, and C. Briese
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2020, 641–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-641-2020, 2020
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Rita Nogherotto, Adriano Fantini, Francesca Raffaele, Fabio Di Sante, Francesco Dottori, Erika Coppola, and Filippo Giorgi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, Peter Salamon, Alessandra Bianchi, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to use river flow forecasts to estimate the impacts of flood events in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage, cities and population at risk. We tested our method by simulating the catastrophic floods occurred in May 2014 in Southern Europe. Comparison with observed data shows that our simulations can predict flooded areas and flood impacts well in advance. The method is now being used for real-time risk forecasts to help emergency response and management.
Giovanni Besio, Riccardo Briganti, Alessandro Romano, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Paolo De Girolamo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 505–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-505-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-505-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Results of 36-years of hindcast in the Mediterranean Sea are analysed to detect time clustering of wave storms using the Allan factor. The analysis reveals that some areas of the basin are characterized by storm clustering for timescales t < 50 days, while seasonality is dominant at large scales. The findings highlight a deviation from the Poisson distribution in some sub-basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Implications for coastal erosion/flooding need to be studied further.
Isavela N. Monioudi, Adonis F. Velegrakis, Antonis E. Chatzipavlis, Anastasios Rigos, Theophanis Karambas, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Thomas Hasiotis, Nikoletta Koukourouvli, Pascal Peduzzi, Eva Manoutsoglou, Serafim E. Poulos, and Michael B. Collins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 449–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (Greece) and assess the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) impacts under different scenarios. Results suggest that Aegean beaches may be particularly vulnerable to SLRs, where severe impacts which could be devastating are projected by 2100. Appropriate coastal "setback zone" policies should be adopted, as they form a significant environmental and economic resource.
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Peter Salamon, Jutta Thielen, Alessandra Bianchi, Francesco Dottori, and Peter Burek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work couples recent advances in large scale flood hazard mapping into a pan-European flood risk model to estimate the impact of river floods in a seamless simulation, covering more than two decades.
Results of this research are an important contribution in the reconstruction of a complete dataset of flood impact data. Also, it has direct implications in the area of flood early warning with regard to the rapid risk assessment of flood impacts.
Jon Olav Skøien, Konrad Bogner, Peter Salamon, Paul Smith, and Florian Pappenberger
Proc. IAHS, 373, 109–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, 2016
B. Revilla-Romero, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, T. De Groeve, and G. R. Brakenridge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4467–4484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4467-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4467-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
One of the main challenges in global hydrological modelling is the limited availability of observational data for calibration and model verification. The aim of this study is to test the potentials and constraints of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) for converting the flood detection signal into river discharge values. This work also provides a first analysis of the local factors influencing the accuracy of discharge measurement as provided by this system.
I. Vandecasteele, A. Bianchi, F. Batista e Silva, C. Lavalle, and O. Batelaan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 407–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-407-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-407-2014, 2014
G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, and A. Bianchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014
F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, L. Alfieri, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, and M. Holubecka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P., and Feyen, L.: Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4067–4077, 2014.
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 199–212, 2015.
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., and Burek, P.: Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016.
Barnard, P. L., Short, A. D., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Vitousek, S., Turner, I. L., Allan, J., Banno, M., Bryan, K. R., Doria, A., Hansen, J. E., Kato, S., Kuriyama, Y., Randall-Goodwin, E., Ruggiero, P., Walker, I. J., and Heathfield, D. K.: Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Nat. Geosci., 8, 801–807, 2015.
Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A. P. J.: A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation, J. Hydrol., 236, 54–77, 2000.
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 33–45, 2010.
Batista e Silva, F., Lavalle, C., and Koomen, E.: A procedure to obtain a refined European land use/cover map, J. Land Use Sci., 8, 255–283, 2012.
Batista e Silva, F., Gallego, J., and Lavalle, C.: A high-resolution population grid map for Europe, J. Maps, 9, 16–28, 2013.
Bertin, X., Bruneau, N., Breilh, J.-F., Fortunato, A. B., and Karpytchev, M.: Importance of wave age and resonance in storm surges: The case Xynthia, Bay of Biscay, Ocean Modell., 42, 16–30, 2012.
Bertin, X., Li, K., Roland, A., Zhang, Y. J., Breilh, J. F., and Chaumillon, E.: A modeling-based analysis of the flooding associated with Xynthia, central Bay of Biscay, Coast. Eng., 94, 80–89, 2014.
Boettle, M., Rybski, D., and Kropp, J. P.: Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence – a point process perspective on coastal flood damage, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 559–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016, 2016.
Breilh, J. F., Chaumillon, E., Bertin, X., and Gravelle, M.: Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1595–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1595-2013, 2013.
Brown, J., Wolf, J., and Souza, A.: Past to future extreme events in Liverpool Bay: model projections from 1960–2100, Climate Change, 111, 365–391, 2012.
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lowe, J. A., and Hinkel, J.: Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA, Climate Change, 134, 403–416, 2013.
Bruun, J. T. and Tawn, J. A.: Comparison of approaches for estimating the probability of coastal flooding, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 47, 405–423, 1998.
CGEDD: Tempete Xynthia: Retour d'experience, evaluation et propositions d'action, 192 pp., 2010.
Cialone, M. A. and Amein, M.: DYNLETI: model formulation and user guide, US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Vicksburg, MS, 1993.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., and Armaroli, C.: Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 924–933, 2011.
Cooper, J. A. G. and Pile, J.: The adaptation-resistance spectrum: A classification of contemporary adaptation approaches to climate-related coastal change, Ocean Coast. Manag., 94, 90–98, 2014.
Corbella, S. and Stretch, D. D.: Simulating a multivariate sea storm using Archimedean copulas, Coastal Eng., 76, 68–78, 2013.
DDTM-17: Éléments de mémoire sur la tempête Xynthia du 27 et 28 février 2010, 2011.
Debernard, J. B. and Røed, L. P.: Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas: a revisit, Tellus A, 60, 427–438, 2008.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, 2016.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011.
Deltares: Delft3D-FLOW: Simulation of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic flows and transport phenomena, including sediments, User Manual, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, 2014.
Dottori, F., Martina, M. L. V., and Figueiredo, R.: A methodology for flood susceptibility and vulnerability analysis in complex flood scenarios, J. Flood Risk Management, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12234, 2016.
Egbert, G. D. and Erofeeva, S. Y.: Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 19, 183–204, 2002.
Ferreira, Ó., Garcia, T., Matias, A., Taborda, R., and Dias, J. A.: An integrated method for the determination of set-back lines for coastal erosion hazards on sandy shores, Cont. Shelf Res., 26, 1030–1044, 2006.
Gallien, T. W.: Validated coastal flood modeling at Imperial Beach, California: Comparing total water level, empirical and numerical overtopping methodologies, Coast. Eng., 111, 95–104, 2016.
Gaslikova, L., Grabemann, I., and Groll, N.: Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations, Nat. Hazards, 66, 1501–1518, 2013.
Gouldby, B., Méndez, F. J., Guanche, Y., Rueda, A., and Mínguez, R.: A methodology for deriving extreme nearshore sea conditions for structural design and flood risk analysis, Coast. Eng., 88, 15–26, 2014.
Hawkes, P. J., Gouldby, B. P., Tawn, J. A., and Owen, M. W.: The joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal engineering design, J. Hydraul. Res., 40, 241–251, 2002.
Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R., Vafeidis, A., Tol, R. J., and Avagianou, T.: Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change, 15, 703–719, 2010.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, 2014.
IPCC: Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas, in: IPCC WGII AR5, Intergovermental Panel on CLimate Change, 2014.
Lesser, G. R., Roelvink, J. A., van Kester, J. A. T. M., and Stelling, G. S.: Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model, Coast. Eng., 51, 883–915, 2004.
Lloyd, S. J., Kovats, R. S., Chalabi, Z., Brown, S., and Nicholls, R. J.: Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality, Climate Change, 134, 441–455, 2015.
Losada, I. J., Reguero, B. G., Méndez, F. J., Castanedo, S., Abascal, A. J., and Mínguez, R.: Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the Caribbean, Global Planet. Change, 104, 34–50, 2013.
Lowe, J. A., Howard, T. P., Pardaens, A., Tinker, J., Holt, J., Wakelin, S., Milne, G., Leake, J., Wolf, J., Horsburgh, K., Reeder, T., Jenkins, G., Ridley, J., Dye, S., and Bradley, S.: UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 2009.
Matias, A., Ferreira, Ó., Vila-Concejo, A., Garcia, T., and Dias, J. A.: Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands, Geomorphology, 97, 655–674, 2008.
McCall, R. T., Van Thiel de Vries, J. S. M., Plant, N. G., Van Dongeren, A. R., Roelvink, J. A., Thompson, D. M., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.: Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island, Coast. Eng., 57, 668–683, 2010.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M., Voukouvalas, E., Sartini, L., Feyen, L., Besio, G., and Alfieri, L.: Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis: a simplified approach for Earth science applications, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-65, in review, 2016.
Neal, J., Schumann, G., Fewtrell, T., Budimir, M., Bates, P., and Mason, D.: Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK, J. Flood Risk Management, 4, 88–95, 2011.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Evaluation of coastal vulnerability to flooding: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Burghoff, O., and Kropp, J. P.: Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015.
Purvis, M. J., Bates, P. D., and Hayes, C. M.: A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise, Coast. Eng., 55, 1062–1073, 2008.
Ramirez, J. A., Lichter, M., Coulthard, T. J., and Skinner, C.: Hyper-resolution mapping of regional storm surge and tide flooding: comparison of static and dynamic models, Nat. Hazards, 82, 571–590, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2198-z, 2016.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., Dongeren, A. V., Vries, J. V. T. D., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J.: Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152, 2009.
Sampson, C. C., Smith, A. M., Bates, P. D., Neal, J. C., Alfieri, L., and Freer, J. E.: A high-resolution global flood hazard model, Water Resour. Res., 51, 7358–7381, 2015.
Scussolini, P., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Jongman, B., Bouwer, L. M., Winsemius, H. C., de Moel, H., and Ward, P. J.: FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016.
Seenath, A., Wilson, M., and Miller, K.: Hydrodynamic versus GIS modelling for coastal flood vulnerability assessment: Which is better for guiding coastal management?, Ocean Coast. Manag., 120, 99–109, 2016.
Sekovski, I., Armaroli, C., Calabrese, L., Mancini, F., Stecchi, F., and Perini, L.: Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2331–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2331-2015, 2015.
Serafin, K. A. and Ruggiero, P.: Simulating extreme total water levels using a time-dependent, extreme value approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 119, 6305–6329, 2014.
Smith, R. A. E., Bates, P. D., and Hayes, C.: Evaluation of a coastal flood inundation model using hard and soft data, Environ. Model. Softw., 30, 35–46, 2012.
Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger, J. A. H.: Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coast. Eng., 53, 573–588, 2006.
US Army Corps of Engineers: Coastal Engineering Manual, US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC, 2002.
Vafeidis, A. T., Nicholls, R. J., McFadden, L., Tol, R. S. J., Hinkel, J., Spencer, T., Grashoff, P. S., Boot, G., and Klein, R. J. T.: A New Global Coastal Database for Impact and Vulnerability Analysis to Sea-Level Rise, J. Coast. Res., 24, 917–924, https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0725.1, 2008.
Vousdoukas, M. I.: Erosion/accretion and multiple beach cusp systems on a meso-tidal, steeply-sloping beach, Geomorphology, 141–142, 34–46, 2012.
Vousdoukas, M. I.: Observations of wave run-up and groundwater seepage line motions on a reflective-to-intermediate, meso-tidal beach, Mar. Geol., 350, 52–70, 2014.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Almeida, L. P., and Ferreira, Ó.: Beach erosion and recovery during consecutive storms at a steep-sloping, meso-tidal beach, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 37, 583–691, 2012a.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Ferreira, O., Almeida, L. P., and Pacheco, A.: Toward reliable storm-hazard forecasts: XBeach calibration and its potential application in an operational early-warning system, Ocean Dynam., 62, 1001–1015, 2012b.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Wziatek, D., and Almeida, L. P.: Coastal vulnerability assessment based on video wave run-up observations at a mesotidal, steep-sloped beach, Ocean Dynam., 62, 123–137, 2012c.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., in press, 2016.
Weisse, R., Bellafiore, D., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F., Nicholls, R. J., Umgiesser, G., and Willems, P.: Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts, Coast. Eng., 87, 4–14, 2014.
Short summary
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint