Articles | Volume 14, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2165-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2165-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Aug 2014
Research article |
| 25 Aug 2014
Application and prospect of a high-resolution remote sensing and geo-information system in estimating earthquake casualties
T. Feng
School of Life Sciences and Technology, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China
Department of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Eastern Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, 150 Jimo Road, Shanghai, 200120, China
Z. Hong
College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China
College of Information technology, Shanghai Ocean University, 999 Huchenghuan Road, Shanghai, 201306, China
Q. Fu
Research Institute of Structural Engineering and Disaster Reduction, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China
S. Ma
Department of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Eastern Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, 150 Jimo Road, Shanghai, 200120, China
X. Jie
Department of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Eastern Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, 150 Jimo Road, Shanghai, 200120, China
H. Wu
School of Life Sciences and Technology, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China
C. Jiang
Department of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Eastern Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, 150 Jimo Road, Shanghai, 200120, China
X. Tong
College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 205–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-205-2025, 2025
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We refined the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM) with Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite 2 data to release a new dataset (IC2-GDEM). It has superior global elevation quality to ASTER GDEM. Its seamless integration with historical ASTER GDEM datasets is essential for longitudinal environmental studies. As a complementary data source to other GDEMs, it enables more reliable and comprehensive scientific discoveries.
Leilei Jiao, Yusheng Xu, Rong Huang, Zhen Ye, Sicong Liu, Shijie Liu, and Xiaohua Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-3-2024, 629–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-629-2024, 2024
Jiarui Cao, Rong Huang, Zhen Ye, Yusheng Xu, and Xiaohua Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-3-2024, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-51-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-51-2024, 2024
S. Xu, R. Huang, Y. Xu, Z. Ye, H. Xie, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-W2-2023, 771–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-771-2023, 2023
Yuelong Xiao, Qunming Wang, Xiaohua Tong, and Peter M. Atkinson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3365–3386, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3365-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Forest age is closely related to forest production, carbon cycles, and other ecosystem services. Existing stand age products in China derived from remote-sensing images are of a coarse spatial resolution and are not suitable for applications at the regional scale. Here, we mapped young forest ages across China at an unprecedented fine spatial resolution of 30 m. The overall accuracy (OA) of the generated map of young forest stand ages across China was 90.28 %.
H. Zhang, B. Xie, S. Liu, R. Ding, Z. Ye, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2022, 79–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2022-79-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2022-79-2022, 2022
Q. Xu, H. Xie, Y. Sun, X. Liu, Y. Guo, P. Huang, B. Li, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2022, 309–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-309-2022, 2022
H. Zhang, Y. Shang, X. Tong, J. Chen, W. Ma, M. Li, Y. Lu, and H. Chen
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S. Luo, Y. Cheng, Z. Li, Y. Wang, K. Wang, X. Wang, G. Qiao, W. Ye, Y. Li, M. Xia, X. Yuan, Y. Tian, X. Tong, and R. Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2021, 491–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-491-2021, 2021
Y. Gong, H. Xie, X. Tong, Y. Jin, X. Xv, and Q. Wang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 103–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-103-2020, 2020
H. Zhang, S. Liu, Z. Ye, X. Tong, H. Xie, S. Zheng, and Q. Du
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2020, 149–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2020-149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2020-149-2020, 2020
Z. Ye, Y. Xu, C. Wei, X. Tong, and U. Stilla
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-1-2020, 157–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2020-157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2020-157-2020, 2020
Y. Lu, J. Zhang, X. Tong, X. Lu, W. Han, H. Zhang, H. Zhao, and X. Liu
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2020, 141–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-141-2020, 2020
Y. Wang, X. Tong, H. Xie, M. Jiang, Y. Huang, S. Liu, X. Xu, Q. Du, Q. Wang, and C. Wang
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2020, 603–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-603-2020, 2020
Q. Fu, S. Liu, X. Tong, and H. Wang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W16, 91–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W16-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W16-91-2019, 2019
S. Gao, Z. Ye, C. Wei, X. Liu, and X. Tong
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W7, 33–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W7-33-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W7-33-2019, 2019
Y. Lu, J. Zhang, X. Tong, W. Han, and H. Zhao
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1243–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1243-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1243-2019, 2019
Y. Cheng, X. Li, G. Qiao, W. Ye, Y. Huang, Y. Li, K. Wang, Y. Tian, X. Tong, and R. Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1735–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1735-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1735-2019, 2019
R. Li, D. Lv, H. Xiao, S. Liu, Y. Cheng, G. Hai, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1759–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1759-2019, 2019
R. Li, H. Xie, Y. Tian, W. Du, J. Chen, G. Hai, S. Zhang, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1765–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1765-2019, 2019
Z. Ye, Y. Xu, L. Hoegner, X. Tong, and U. Stilla
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 147–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-147-2019, 2019
Y. Tian, S. Zhang, W. Du, J. Chen, H. Xie, X. Tong, and R. Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3, 1657–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-1657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-1657-2018, 2018
Wenping Song, Shijie Liu, Xiaohua Tong, Changling Niu, Zhen Ye, Han Zhang, and Yanmin Jin
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-3, 193–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-3-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-3-193-2018, 2018
Xin Zhang, Shijie Liu, Haifeng Yu, Xiaohua Tong, and Guoman Huang
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-3, 267–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-3-267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-3-267-2018, 2018
W. Du, L. Chen, H. Xie, G. Hai, S. Zhang, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 1513–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1513-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1513-2017, 2017
G. Hai, H. Xie, J. Chen, L. Chen, R. Li, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 1517–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1517-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1517-2017, 2017
M. Xia, G. Tang, Y. Tian, W. Ye, R. Li, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 1569–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1569-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1569-2017, 2017
H. Xiao, S. Liu, R. Li, and X. Tong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 1575–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1575-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-1575-2017, 2017
Rongxing Li, Haifeng Xiao, Shijie Liu, and Xiaohua Tong
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-178, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Fracturing in the RFIS was slightly increased, particularly at its front, from 2003 to 2015. They do not seem to suggest an immediate significant impact on the stability of the shelf. However, with the rapid changes and 3D measurements of Rifts 1 and 2, the most active activities occurred at the front of the FIS from 2001 to 2016. A potential upcoming major calving event in FIS is estimated to occur in 2051. The stability of the ice shelf, particularly Rifts 1 and 2, should be closely monitored.
C. Guo, X. Tong, S. Liu, S. Liu, X. Lu, P. Chen, Y. Jin, and H. Xie
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W1, 49–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-49-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-49-2017, 2017
W. Zhao, X. Tong, H. Xie, Y. Jin, S. Liu, D. Wu, X. Liu, L. Guo, and Q. Zhou
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W1, 213–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-213-2017, 2017
Q. Zhou, X. Tong, S. Liu, X. Lu, S. Liu, P. Chen, Y. Jin, and H. Xie
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W1, 219–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W1-219-2017, 2017
W. Cao, X. H. Tong, S. C. Liu, and D. Wang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B8, 25–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B8-25-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B8-25-2016, 2016
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Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
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New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
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The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
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Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
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This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
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Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
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The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
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Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
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As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
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The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-96, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The Northwestern Yunnan Region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model, which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
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The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
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Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
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The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
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The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, 2024
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Relying on recent accomplishments in collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a seven-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2818, 2024
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This work presents a comparison between different methods of computing seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance computation for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the time-dependent annual exceedance probability are observed in Italy before L’Aquila earthquake, which can be used in Operational Earthquake Forecasting. These changes are not so evident in Spain for the chosen events.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
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We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the "Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia" (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the source model and presents the main results of the probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
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Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
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Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
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Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
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In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
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This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
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Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
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We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
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