Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1937-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1937-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EL, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0EZ, UK
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
Alexandre Dunant
Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Rd, Durham DH13LE, UK
Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano 39100, Italy
Amy L. Johnson
Department of Government and Sociology, Georgia College & State University, Milledgeville, GA 31061, United States
Erin L. Harvey
Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Rd, Durham DH13LE, UK
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter St, Sheffield S37ND, UK
Katherine Arrell
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, City Campus, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
Jeevan Baniya
Social Science Baha, 345 Ramchandra Marg, Battisputali, Kathmandu, Nepal
Dipak Basnet
Social Science Baha, 345 Ramchandra Marg, Battisputali, Kathmandu, Nepal
Gopi K. Basyal
National Society for Earthquake Technology, Sainbu Bhainsepati Residential Area, Lalitpur 13775, Nepal
Nyima Dorjee Bhotia
Social Science Baha, 345 Ramchandra Marg, Battisputali, Kathmandu, Nepal
Simon J. Dadson
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
Alexander L. Densmore
Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Rd, Durham DH13LE, UK
Tek Bahadur Dong
Social Science Baha, 345 Ramchandra Marg, Battisputali, Kathmandu, Nepal
Mark E. Kincey
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE17RX, UK
Katie Oven
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, City Campus, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
Anuradha Puri
Social Science Baha, 345 Ramchandra Marg, Battisputali, Kathmandu, Nepal
Nick J. Rosser
Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Rd, Durham DH13LE, UK
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We introduce TerraTrack, an open-source tool for detecting and monitoring slow-moving landslides using Sentinel-2 data. It automates image acquisition, landslide identification, and time-series generation in an accessible and cloud-based workflow. TerraTrack supports early warning, complements InSAR, and offers a scalable solution for landslide hazard identification and monitoring.
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Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
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Investigating past glaciated regions is crucial for understanding how ice sheets responded to climate forcings and how they might respond in the future. We use two independent dating techniques to document the timing and extent of the Lago Argentino glacier lobe, a former lobe of the Patagonian Ice Sheet, during the late Quaternary. Our findings highlight feedbacks in the Earth’s system responsible for modulating glacier growth in the Southern Hemisphere prior to the global Last Glacial Maximum.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Alexandre Dunant, Erin L. Harvey, Ganesh K. Jimee, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Sarmila Paudyal, Dammar Singh Pujara, Anuradha Puri, Ram Shrestha, Nick J. Rosser, and Simon J. Dadson
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This study focuses on understanding soil moisture, a key factor for evaluating hillslope stability and landsliding. In Nepal, where landslides are common, we used a computer model to better understand how rapidly soil dries out after the monsoon season. We calibrated the model using field data and found that, by adjusting soil properties, we could predict moisture levels more accurately. This helps understand where landslides might occur, even where direct measurements are not possible.
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We design and propose a method that can evaluate the quality of glacier velocity maps. The method includes two numbers that we can calculate for each velocity map. Based on statistics and ice flow physics, velocity maps with numbers close to the recommended values are considered to have good quality. We test the method using the data from Kaskawulsh Glacier, Canada, and release an open-sourced software tool called GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT) to help users assess their velocity maps.
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
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In some situations, the color of sediment records information about the climatic conditions under which it was deposited. We show that sediment color and climate are linked at Lago Argentino, the world's largest ice-contact lake, but that this relationship is too complex to be used for reconstructing past climate. We instead use this sediment color-climate relationship to show that temperature and wind speed affect sediment deposition in the summer, but not in the winter.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Alexandre Dunant, Erin L. Harvey, Ganesh K. Jimee, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Sarmila Paudyal, Dammar Singh Pujara, Anuradha Puri, Ram Shrestha, Nick J. Rosser, and Simon J. Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-397, 2024
Preprint archived
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This study focuses on understanding soil moisture, a key factor for evaluating hillslope stability and landsliding. In Nepal, where landslides are common, we used a computer model to better understand how rapidly soil dries out after the monsoon season. We calibrated the model using field data and found that, by adjusting soil properties, we could predict moisture levels more accurately. This helps understand where landslides might occur, even where direct measurements are not possible.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
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The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Jian Peng, Ellen Dyer, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Chris Funk, Hylke E. Beck, Dagmawi T. Asfaw, Michael B. Singer, and Simon J. Dadson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5449–5466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, 2023
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Whyjay Zheng, Shashank Bhushan, Maximillian Van Wyk De Vries, William Kochtitzky, David Shean, Luke Copland, Christine Dow, Renette Jones-Ivey, and Fernando Pérez
The Cryosphere, 17, 4063–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4063-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4063-2023, 2023
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We design and propose a method that can evaluate the quality of glacier velocity maps. The method includes two numbers that we can calculate for each velocity map. Based on statistics and ice flow physics, velocity maps with numbers close to the recommended values are considered to have good quality. We test the method using the data from Kaskawulsh Glacier, Canada, and release an open-sourced software tool called GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT) to help users assess their velocity maps.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
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Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
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Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Emi Ito, Mark Shapley, Matias Romero, and Guido Brignone
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-29, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In some situations, the color of sediment records information about the climatic conditions under which it was deposited. We show that sediment color and climate are linked at Lago Argentino, the world's largest ice-contact lake, but that this relationship is too complex to be used for reconstructing past climate. We instead use this sediment color-climate relationship to show that temperature and wind speed affect sediment deposition in the summer, but not in the winter.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
David G. Milledge, Dino G. Bellugi, Jack Watt, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 481–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes can trigger thousands of landslides, causing severe and widespread damage. Efforts to understand what controls these landslides rely heavily on costly and time-consuming manual mapping from satellite imagery. We developed a new method that automatically detects landslides triggered by earthquakes using thousands of free satellite images. We found that in the majority of cases, it was as skilful at identifying the locations of landslides as the manual maps that we tested it against.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021
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We used deep learning (DL) models to simulate the amount of water moving through a river channel (discharge) based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We tested the DL models on catchments across Great Britain finding that the model can accurately simulate hydrological systems across a variety of catchment conditions. Ultimately, the model struggled most in areas where there is chalky bedrock and where human influence on the catchment is large.
Thomas Croissant, Robert G. Hilton, Gen K. Li, Jamie Howarth, Jin Wang, Erin L. Harvey, Philippe Steer, and Alexander L. Densmore
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 823–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-823-2021, 2021
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In mountain ranges, earthquake-derived landslides mobilize large amounts of organic carbon (OC) by eroding soil from hillslopes. We propose a model to explore the role of different parameters in the post-seismic redistribution of soil OC controlled by fluvial export and heterotrophic respiration. Applied to the Southern Alps, our results suggest that efficient OC fluvial export during the first decade after an earthquake promotes carbon sequestration.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries and Andrew D. Wickert
The Cryosphere, 15, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2115-2021, 2021
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We can measure glacier flow and sliding velocity by tracking patterns on the ice surface in satellite images. The surface velocity of glaciers provides important information to support assessments of glacier response to climate change, to improve regional assessments of ice thickness, and to assist with glacier fieldwork. Our paper describes Glacier Image Velocimetry (GIV), a new, easy-to-use, and open-source toolbox for calculating high-resolution velocity time series for any glacier on earth.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, 2020
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Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this study, we show that there is a poor correlation between building damage and deaths from landslides, such that the deadliest landslides do not always destroy the most buildings and vice versa. This has important implications for our management of landslide risk.
Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this...
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