Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2024
| 26 Nov 2024
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Alisée A. Chaigneau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
now at: IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Angélique Melet
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Aurore Voldoire
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Guillaume Reffray
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Stéphane Law-Chune
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Lotfi Aouf
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Related authors
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate short-term wave forecasts are key for coastal activities. These forecasts rely on wind and currents as forcing, which in this work were both enhanced using neural networks (NNs) trained with satellite and radar data. Tested at three European sites, the NN-corrected winds were 35 % more accurate, and currents also improved. This led to improved IBI wave model predictions of wave height and period by 10 % and 17 %, respectively; even correcting under extreme events.
Joanna Staneva, Angelique Melet, Jennifer Veitch, and Pascal Matte
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-44, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are critical for society, with a significant portion of the global population residing near the coast. Predicting ocean conditions in these regions is challenging due to the need to model complex processes like tidal currents, wind-wave interactions, and shallow water dynamics. This paper explores advancements in high-resolution coastal modeling and observations, which improve predictions and refine monitoring systems. It highlights innovative approaches to enhance coastal realism
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Marc Mallet, Aurore Voldoire, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Thomas Drugé, and Romain Roehrig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12509–12535, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the interactions between smoke aerosols and climate in tropical Africa using a coupled ocean–atmosphere–aerosol climate model. The work shows that smoke plumes have a significant impact by increasing the low-cloud fraction, decreasing the ocean and continental surface temperature and reducing the precipitation of coastal western Africa. It also highlights the role of the ocean temperature response and its feedbacks for the September–November season.
Jean Rabault, Trygve Halsne, Ana Carrasco, Anton Korosov, Joey Voermans, Patrik Bohlinger, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Malte Müller, Øyvind Breivik, Takehiko Nose, Gaute Hope, Fabrice Collard, Sylvain Herlédan, Tsubasa Kodaira, Nick Hughes, Qin Zhang, Kai Haakon Christensen, Alexander Babanin, Lars Willas Dreyer, Cyril Palerme, Lotfi Aouf, Konstantinos Christakos, Atle Jensen, Johannes Röhrs, Aleksey Marchenko, Graig Sutherland, Trygve Kvåle Løken, and Takuji Waseda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We observe strongly modulated waves-in-ice significant wave height using buoys deployed East of Svalbard. We show that these observations likely cannot be explained by wave-current interaction or tide-induced modulation alone. We also demonstrate a strong correlation between the waves height modulation, and the rate of sea ice convergence. Therefore, our data suggest that the rate of sea ice convergence and divergence may modulate wave in ice energy dissipation.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Fabrice Hernandez, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, and Angelique Melet
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
Short summary
Short summary
An historical review over the last three decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical reanalysis or forecast is first proposed. From this, main issues and lessons learned are discussed in order to propose an overview of best practices and key considerations to facilitate intercomparison activities in operational oceanography.
Alice Laloue, Malek Ghantous, Yannice Faugère, Alice Dalphinet, and Lotfi Aouf
State Planet, 4-osr8, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-6-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-6-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite altimetry shows that daily mean significant wave heights (SWHs) and extreme SWHs have increased in the Southern Ocean, the South Atlantic, and the southern Indian Ocean over the last 2 decades. In winter in the North Atlantic, SWH has increased north of 45°N and decreased south of 45°N. SWHs likely to be exceeded every 100 years have also increased in the North Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific. However, this study also revealed the need for longer and more consistent series.
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to climate changes impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, that can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
Sylvain Cailleau, Laurent Bessières, Léonel Chiendje, Flavie Dubost, Guillaume Reffray, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Simon van Gennip, Charly Régnier, Marie Drevillon, Marc Tressol, Matthieu Clavier, Julien Temple-Boyer, and Léo Berline
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3157–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to improve Sargassum drift forecasting in the Caribbean area, drift models can be forced by higher-resolution ocean currents. To this goal a 3 km resolution regional ocean model has been developed. Its assessment is presented with a particular focus on the reproduction of fine structures representing key features of the Caribbean region dynamics and Sargassum transport. The simulated propagation of a North Brazil Current eddy and its dissipation was found to be quite realistic.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air–sea interface are not represented explicitly but with parameterisations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterisation of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate, and the possibility of being used in atmosphere–wave coupled models.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Thibault Guinaldo, Aurore Voldoire, Robin Waldman, Stéphane Saux Picart, and Hervé Roquet
Ocean Sci., 19, 629–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the summer of 2022, France experienced a series of unprecedented heatwaves. This study is the first to examine the response of sea surface temperatures to these events, using spatial operational data and attributing the observed abnormally warm SSTs to atmospheric forcings. The findings of this study underscore the critical need for an efficient and sustainable operational system to monitor alterations that threaten the oceans in the context of climate change.
Aurore Voldoire, Romain Roehrig, Hervé Giordani, Robin Waldman, Yunyan Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, and Marie-Nöelle Bouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3347–3370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A single-column version of the global climate model CNRM-CM6-1 has been designed to ease development and validation of the model physics at the air–sea interface in a simplified environment. This model is then used to assess the ability to represent the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle. We conclude that the sea surface temperature diurnal variability is reasonably well represented in CNRM-CM6-1 with a 1 h coupling time step and the upper-ocean model resolution of 1 m.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
Marzieh H. Derkani, Alberto Alberello, Filippo Nelli, Luke G. Bennetts, Katrin G. Hessner, Keith MacHutchon, Konny Reichert, Lotfi Aouf, Salman Khan, and Alessandro Toffoli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean has a profound impact on the Earth's climate system. Its strong winds, intense currents, and fierce waves are critical components of the air–sea interface. The scarcity of observations in this remote region hampers the comprehension of fundamental physics, the accuracy of satellite sensors, and the capabilities of prediction models. To fill this gap, a unique data set of simultaneous observations of winds, surface currents, and ocean waves in the Southern Ocean is presented.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane LawChune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlight the adjustment of the wave physics in order to improve the surface stress and thus the ocean/wave coupling dedicated to Iberian Biscay and Ireland domain. The validation with altimeters wave data during the year 2014 has shown a slight improvement of the significant wave height. Statistical analysis of the results of the new and old versions of the wave model MFWAM is examined for the three main ocean regions of the IBI domain.
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane Law-Chune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This work highlights the relevance of coupling wave model with ocean model in order to improve key surface ocean parameters and in general to better describe the ocean circulation at small and large scale.
The results focus on the Iberian Biscay and Ireland ocean region with fine grid resolution of 2.5 km for the ocean model. The main conclusion is the improvement of wave physics induces a better ocean mixing at the upper layer and a positive impact for sea surface height in storm events.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Émilie Bresson, Philippe Arbogast, Lotfi Aouf, Denis Paradis, Anna Kortcheva, Andrey Bogatchev, Vasko Galabov, Marieta Dimitrova, Guillaume Morvan, Patrick Ohl, Boryana Tsenova, and Florence Rabier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. To improve adaptability for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding events is necessary. This article is dedicated to evaluating wave and surge reconstruction methods based on available reanalyses data for French and Bulgarian coasts. This study shows that the wave and surge models should be forced by downscaled winds rather than modelled reanalyses.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
G. Reffray, R. Bourdalle-Badie, and C. Calone
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-69-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-69-2015, 2015
Y. Drillet, J. M. Lellouche, B. Levier, M. Drévillon, O. Le Galloudec, G. Reffray, C. Regnier, E. Greiner, and M. Clavier
Ocean Sci., 10, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014, 2014
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
V. Masson, P. Le Moigne, E. Martin, S. Faroux, A. Alias, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Barbu, A. Boone, F. Bouyssel, P. Brousseau, E. Brun, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, C. Delire, S. Donier, K. Essaouini, A.-L. Gibelin, H. Giordani, F. Habets, M. Jidane, G. Kerdraon, E. Kourzeneva, M. Lafaysse, S. Lafont, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lemonsu, J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Marguinaud, M. Mokhtari, S. Morin, G. Pigeon, R. Salgado, Y. Seity, F. Taillefer, G. Tanguy, P. Tulet, B. Vincendon, V. Vionnet, and A. Voldoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Untangling the Waves: Decomposing Extreme Sea Levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Cited articles
Aarnes, O. J., Reistad, M., Breivik, Ø., Bitner-Gregersen, E., Ingolf Eide, L., Gramstad, O., Magnusson, A. K., Natvig, B., and Vanem, E.: Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 3394–3403, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012521, 2017.
Almar, R., Ranasinghe, R., Bergsma, E. W. J., Diaz, H., Melet, A., Papa, F., Vousdoukas, M., Athanasiou, P., Dada, O., Almeida, L. P., and Kestenare, E.: A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping, Nat. Commun., 12, 3775, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9, 2021.
Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Jensen, J., Talke, S., Bender, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights, Sci. Rep., 7, 40171, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40171, 2017.
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts, Nat. Commun., 11, 1918, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5, 2020.
Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.: Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019.
Bergsma, E. W. J., Almar, R., Anthony, E. J., Garlan, T., and Kestenare, E.: Wave variability along the world's continental shelves and coasts: Monitoring opportunities from satellite Earth observation, Adv. Space Res., 69, 3236–3244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2022.02.047, 2022.
Bonaduce, A., Staneva, J., Grayek, S., Bidlot, J.-R., and Breivik, Ø.: Sea-state contributions to sea-level variability in the European Seas, Ocean Dynam., 70, 1547–1569, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01404-1, 2020.
Bruciaferri, D., Tonani, M., Lewis, H. W., Siddorn, J. R., Saulter, A., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Valiente, N. G., Conley, D., Sykes, P., Ascione, I., and McConnell, N.: The Impact of Ocean-Wave Coupling on the Upper Ocean Circulation During Storm Events, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2021JC017343, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017343, 2021.
Caires, S.: EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS: WAVE DATA, JCOMM Technical Report No. 57, https://www.jodc.go.jp/info/ioc_doc/JCOMM_Tech/JCOMM-TR-057.pdf (last access: 18 November 2024), 2011.
Calafat, F. M., Wahl, T., Tadesse, M. G., and Sparrow, S. N.: Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise, Nature, 603, 841–845, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04426-5, 2022.
Caldwell, P. C., Merrifield M. A., Thompson P. R.: Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans – the Joint Archive for Sea Level holdings (NCEI Accession 0019568), Version 5.5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5V40S7W, 2015.
Chaigneau, A. A., Reffray, G., Voldoire, A., and Melet, A.: IBI-CCS: a regional high-resolution model to simulate sea level in western Europe, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022.
Chaigneau, A. A., Law-Chune, S., Melet, A., Voldoire, A., Reffray, G., and Aouf, L.: Impact of sea level changes on future wave conditions along the coasts of western Europe, Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023.
Chen, G., Chapron, B., Ezraty, R., and Vandemark, D.: A Global View of Swell and Wind Sea Climate in the Ocean by Satellite Altimeter and Scatterometer, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 19, 1849–1859, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<1849:AGVOSA>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
ESGF: Historical data, ESGF [data set], http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/?mip_era=CMIP6&activity_id=CMIP&institution_id=CNRM-CERFACS&source_id=CNRM-CM6-1-HR&experiment_id=historical (last access: 8 March 2022), 2022a.
ESGF: piControl data, ESGF [data set], http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/?mip_era=CMIP6&activity_id=CMIP&institution_id=CNRM-CERFACS&source_id=CNRM-CM6-1-HR&experiment_id=piControl (last access: 8 March 2022), 2022b.
ESGF: ssp585 data, ESGF [data set], http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/?mip_era=CMIP6&activity_id=ScenarioMIP&institution_id=CNRM-CERFACS&source_id=CNRM-CM6-1-HR&experiment_id=ssp585 (last access: 8 March 2022), 2022c.
ESGF: ssp126 data, ESGF [data set], http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/?mip_era=CMIP6&activity_id=ScenarioMIP&institution_id=CNRM-CERFACS&source_id=CNRM-CM6-1-HR&experiment_id=ssp126 (last access: 8 March 2022), 2022d.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Griffies, S. M. and Greatbatch, R. J.: Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models, Ocean Model., 51, 37–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.04.003, 2012.
Haigh, I. D., Pickering, M. D., Green, J. A. M., Arbic, B. K., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hill, D. F., Horsburgh, K., Howard, T., Idier, D., Jay, D. A., Jänicke, L., Lee, S. B., Müller, M., Schindelegger, M., Talke, S. A., Wilmes, S.-B., and Woodworth, P. L.: The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2018RG000636, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000636, 2019.
Haigh, I. D., Marcos, M., Talke, S. A., Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Hague, B. S., Arns, A., Bradshaw, E., and Thompson, P.: GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset, Geosci. Data J., 10, 293–314, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.174, 2023 (data available at: http://www.gesla.org, last access: 18 November 2024).
Hemer, M. A., Fan, Y., Mori, N., Semedo, A., and Wang, X. L.: Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 471–476, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1791, 2013.
Hermans, T. H. J., Tinker, J., Palmer, M. D., Katsman, C. A., Vermeersen, B. L. A., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1987–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05104-5, 2020.
Hermans, T. H. J., Katsman, C. A., Camargo, C. M. L., Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., and Slangen, A. B. A.: The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf, J. Climate, 35, 1745–1759, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0636.1, 2022.
Hermans, T. H. J., Malagón-Santos, V., Katsman, C. A., Jane, R. A., Rasmussen, D. J., Haasnoot, M., Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., and Slangen, A. B. A.: The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 359–366, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5, 2023.
Howard, T. and Palmer, M. D.: Sea-level rise allowances for the UK, Environ. Res. Commun., 2, 035003, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab7cb4, 2020.
Idier, D., Bertin, X., Thompson, P., and Pickering, M. D.: Interactions Between Mean Sea Level, Tide, Surge, Waves and Flooding: Mechanisms and Contributions to Sea Level Variations at the Coast, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1603–1630, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09549-5, 2019.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., Weyer , N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3–35, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.001, 2019.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844, 2022.
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Melet, A., and Armaroli, C.: Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1091844, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1091844, 2023.
Jevrejeva, S., Williams, J., Vousdoukas, M. I., and Jackson, L. P.: Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 024037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb504, 2023.
Jin, Y., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., and Bao, X.: Projected Sea Level Changes in the Marginal Seas near China Based on Dynamical Downscaling, J. Climate, 34, 7037–7055, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0796.1, 2021.
Kim, Y.-Y., Kim, B.-G., Jeong, K. Y., Lee, E., Byun, D.-S., and Cho, Y.-K.: Local Sea-Level Rise Caused by Climate Change in the Northwest Pacific Marginal Seas Using Dynamical Downscaling, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 620570, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.620570, 2021.
Kirezci, E., Young, I. R., Ranasinghe, R., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lincke, D., and Hinkel, J.: Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century, Sci. Rep., 10, 11629, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6, 2020.
Lambert, E., Rohmer, J., Cozannet, G. L., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 074015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8336, 2020.
Lemarié, F., Samson, G., Redelsperger, J.-L., Giordani, H., Brivoal, T., and Madec, G.: A simplified atmospheric boundary layer model for an improved representation of air–sea interactions in eddying oceanic models: implementation and first evaluation in NEMO (4.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 543–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-543-2021, 2021.
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Siddorn, J., King, R. R., Tonani, M., Saulter, A., Sykes, P., Pequignet, A.-C., Weedon, G. P., Palmer, T., Staneva, J., and Bricheno, L.: Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?, Ocean Sci., 15, 669–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, 2019.
Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., and Losada, I. J.: Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change, Sci. Rep., 11, 7869, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86524-4, 2021.
Lowe, R. J., Cuttler, M. V. W., and Hansen, J. E.: Climatic Drivers of Extreme Sea Level Events Along the Coastline of Western Australia, Earths Future, 9, e2020EF001620, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001620, 2021.
NEMO: https://www.nemo-ocean.eu/, last access: 18 November 2024.
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Bouttier, P.-A., et al.: NEMO ocean engine. In Notes du Pôle de modélisation de l'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) (v3.6-patch, Number 27), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3248739, 2017.
Marcos, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Spatiotemporal changes in extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 7031–7048, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013065, 2017.
Marcos, M., Rohmer, J., Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Le Cozannet, G., and Amores, A.: Increased Extreme Coastal Water Levels Due to the Combined Action of Storm Surges and Wind Waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 4356–4364, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082599, 2019.
Masselink, G., Castelle, B., Scott, T., Dodet, G., Suanez, S., Jackson, D., and Floc'h, F.: Extreme wave activity during 2013/2014 winter and morphological impacts along the Atlantic coast of Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2135–2143, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067492, 2016.
McMichael, C., Dasgupta, S., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., and Kelman, I.: A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 123005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb398, 2020.
Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 234–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0088-y, 2018.
Melet, A., Almar, R., Hemer, M., Le Cozannet, G., Meyssignac, B., and Ruggiero, P.: Contribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016078, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016078, 2020.
Melet, A., van de Wal, R., Amores, A., Arns, A., Chaigneau, A. A., Dinu, I., Haigh, I. D., Hermans, T. H. J., Lionello, P., Marcos, M., Meier, H. E. M., Meyssignac, B., Palmer, M. D., Reese, R., Simpson, M. J. R., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections, in: Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLRE1), edited by: van den Hurk, B., Pinardi, N., Kiefer, T., Larkin, K., Manderscheid, P., and Richter, K., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M., Voukouvalas, E., Sartini, L., Feyen, L., Besio, G., and Alfieri, L.: The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Dosio, A., and Feyen, L.: Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2416–2426, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072488, 2017.
Meucci, A., Young, I. R., Hemer, M., Kirezci, E., and Ranasinghe, R.: Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz7295, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz7295, 2020.
Morim, J., Vitousek, S., Hemer, M., Reguero, B., Erikson, L., Casas-Prat, M., Wang, X. L., Semedo, A., Mori, N., Shimura, T., Mentaschi, L., and Timmermans, B.: Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 074056, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1013, 2021.
Morim, J., Wahl, T., Vitousek, S., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Young, I., and Hemer, M.: Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning, Sci. Adv., 9, eade3170, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade3170, 2023.
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat. Commun., 7, 11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016.
Muis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su, J., Yan, K., and Verlaan, M.: A High-Resolution Global Dataset of Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future Projections, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 263, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00263, 2020.
Muis, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Á. Antolínez, J. A., Dullaart, J. C., Duong, T. M., Erikson, L., Haarsma, R. J., Apecechea, M. I., Mengel, M., Le Bars, D., O'Neill, A., Ranasinghe, R., Roberts, M. J., Verlaan, M., Ward, P. J., and Yan, K.: Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003479, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479, 2023.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding – A Global Assessment, PLOS ONE, 10, e0118571, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571, 2015.
O'Dea, E., Bell, M. J., Coward, A., and Holt, J.: Implementation and assessment of a flux limiter based wetting and drying scheme in NEMO, Ocean Model., 155, 101708, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101708, 2020.
Outten, S. and Sobolowski, S.: Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models, Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100363, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100363, 2021.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 321–445, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006, 2019.
Palmer, M., Howard, T., Tinker, J., Lowe, J., Bricheno, L., Calvert, D., Edwards, T., Gregory, J., Harris, G., Krijnen, J., Pickering, M., Roberts, C., and Wolf, J.: UKCP18 marine report, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Marine-report.pdf (last access: 18 November 2024), 2018.
Piña-Valdés, J., Socquet, A., Beauval, C., Doin, M.-P., D'Agostino, N., and Shen, Z.-K.: 3D GNSS Velocity Field Sheds Light on the Deformation Mechanisms in Europe: Effects of the Vertical Crustal Motion on the Distribution of Seismicity, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 127, e2021JB023451, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023451, 2022.
Pineau-Guillou, L., Lazure, P., and Wöppelmann, G.: Large-scale changes of the semidiurnal tide along North Atlantic coasts from 1846 to 2018, Ocean Sci., 17, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-17-2021, 2021.
Rashid, M. M., Wahl, T., and Chambers, D. P.: Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 024026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4aa, 2021.
Rasmussen, D. J., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Strauss, B. H., Kopp, R. E., and Oppenheimer, M.: Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034040, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87, 2018.
Rasmussen, D. J., Kulp, S., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., and Strauss, B. H.: Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts, Climatic Change, 170, 30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6, 2022.
Reinert, M., Pineau‐Guillou, L., Raillard, N., and Chapron, B.: Seasonal Shift in Storm Surges at Brest Revealed by Extreme Value Analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2021JC017794, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017794, 2021.
Robin, Y. and Ribes, A.: Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 205–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020, 2020.
Roustan, J.-B., Pineau-Guillou, L., Chapron, B., Raillard, N., and Reinert, M.: Shift of the storm surge season in Europe due to climate variability, Sci. Rep., 12, 8210, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12356-5, 2022.
Saint-Martin, D., Geoffroy, O., Voldoire, A., Cattiaux, J., Brient, F., Chauvin, F., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Douville, H., Guérémy, J.-F. -f, Joetzjer, E., Ribes, A., Roehrig, R., Terray, L., and Valcke, S.: Tracking Changes in Climate Sensitivity in CNRM Climate Models, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002190, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002190, 2021.
Sannino, G., Carillo, A., Iacono, R., Napolitano, E., Palma, M., Pisacane, G., and Struglia, M.: Modelling Present and Future Climate in the Mediterranean Sea: A Focus on Sea-Level Change, Clim. Dynam., 59, 357–391, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06132-w, 2022.
Sayol, J. M. and Marcos, M.: Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain), J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 794–811, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013355, 2018.
Serafin, K. A., Ruggiero, P., and Stockdon, H. F.: The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U. S. West Coast sandy beaches, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071020, 2017.
Serafin, K. A., Ruggiero, P., Barnard, P. L., and Stockdon, H. F.: The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards, Coast. Eng., 150, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.03.012, 2019.
Staneva, J., Ricker, M., Carrasco Alvarez, R., Breivik, Ø., and Schrum, C.: Effects of Wave-Induced Processes in a Coupled Wave–Ocean Model on Particle Transport Simulations, Water, 13, 415, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040415, 2021.
Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger, A. H.: Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coast. Eng., 53, 573–588, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005, 2006.
Stokes, K., Poate, T., Masselink, G., King, E., Saulter, A., and Ely, N.: Forecasting coastal overtopping at engineered and naturally defended coastlines, Coast. Eng., 164, 103827, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103827, 2021.
Tadesse, M. G., Wahl, T., Rashid, M. M., Dangendorf, S., Rodríguez-Enríquez, A., and Talke, S. A.: Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions, Sci. Rep., 12, 13307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x, 2022.
Tebaldi, C., Ranasinghe, R., Vousdoukas, M., Rasmussen, D. J., Vega-Westhoff, B., Kirezci, E., Kopp, R. E., Sriver, R., and Mentaschi, L.: Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 746–751, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1, 2021.
The Wamdi Group: The WAM Model – A Third Generation Ocean Wave Prediction Model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 18, 1775–1810, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018<1775:TWMTGO>2.0.CO;2, 1988 (code available at: https://github.com/mywave/WAM, last access: 17 July 2023)
Toomey, T., Amores, A., Marcos, M., and Orfila, A.: Coastal sea levels and wind-waves in the Mediterranean Sea since 1950 from a high-resolution ocean reanalysis, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 991504, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.991504, 2022.
Valiente, N. G., Masselink, G., Scott, T., Conley, D., and McCarroll, R. J.: Role of waves and tides on depth of closure and potential for headland bypassing, Mar. Geol., 407, 60–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2018.10.009, 2019.
Vitousek, S., Barnard, P. L., Fletcher, C. H., Frazer, N., Erikson, L., and Storlazzi, C. D.: Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise, Sci. Rep., 7, 1399, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7, 2017.
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4067, 2019a.
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4164, 2019b.
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4225, 2019c.
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp126, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4185, 2020a.
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, P., Roehrig, R., Mélia, D. S. y, Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G., Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., and Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2177–2213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683, 2019.
Vos, K., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Walker, A., and Turner, I. L.: Beach Slopes From Satellite-Derived Shorelines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088365, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088365, 2020.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., and Feyen, L.: Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts: EXTREME SEA LEVELS ALONG EUROPE'S COASTS, Earths Future, 5, 304–323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000505, 2017.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., and Feyen, L.: Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe, Nat. Clim Change, 8, 776–780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4, 2018a.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 9, 2360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018b.
Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hinkel, J., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis, Nat. Commun., 8, 16075, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075, 2017.
Wolff, C., Nikoletopoulos, T., Hinkel, J., and Vafeidis, A. T.: Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean, Sci. Rep., 10, 14420, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70928-9, 2020.
Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Marcos, M., Caldwell, P., Menéndez, M., and Haigh, I.: Towards a global higher-frequency sea level dataset, Geosci. Data J., 3, 50–59, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.42, 2016.
Woodworth, P., Hunter, J., Marcos, M., and Hughes, C.: Towards reliable global allowances for sea level rise, Global Planet. Change, 203, 103522, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103522, 2021.
Woodworth, P. L., Melet, A., Marcos, M., Ray, R. D., Wöppelmann, G., Sasaki, Y. N., Cirano, M., Hibbert, A., Huthnance, J. M., Monserrat, S., and Merrifield, M. A.: Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1351–1397, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09531-1, 2019.
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint