Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
16 Sep 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 16 Sep 2024
| 16 Sep 2024
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Environmental Hydraulics Institute, Universidad de Cantabria (IHCantabria), Avda. Isabel Torres, 15, Santander, Spain
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga
Environmental Hydraulics Institute, Universidad de Cantabria (IHCantabria), Avda. Isabel Torres, 15, Santander, Spain
Rachid Omira
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Mauricio González
Environmental Hydraulics Institute, Universidad de Cantabria (IHCantabria), Avda. Isabel Torres, 15, Santander, Spain
Jihwan Kim
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal
Maria A. Baptista
Department of Physics, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Related authors
No articles found.
Martin Wronna, Maria Ana Baptista, and Jorge Miguel Miranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 337–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the source of the 1761 earthquake and tsunami. The reanalysis of the tsunami travel times agrees with an earlier suggested source area. We check the geodynamic setting of the area and place a fault as an extension to an identified fault and use numerical modelling to distinguish between two candidate sources. One of our theories is compatible with the geodynamic setting and reproduces well the observed tsunami parameters.
Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Jara Martínez Sánchez, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Pino González-Riancho, María Merino, Sultan Al-Yahyai, Mauricio González, and Raúl Medina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2241–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2241-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis are natural phenomena that may cause great destruction when they reach coastal areas. This study focuses on establishing a connection between technical and scientific tsunami risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. The ultimate goal is to reduce the consequences that a tsunami may have in tsunami prone communities, focusing on prevention and preparedness strategies, through the generation and application of useful tsunami-risk management tools. The work has focused on Oman.
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Mauricio González, Jara Martínez Sánchez, Laura M. Parro, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Felipe Fernández, Raúl Medina, and Sultan Al-Yahyai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-221, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, two of the main strategies to reduce tsunami risk on the coast of Oman are addressed. The tsunami hazard assessment (calculation of the potentially flooded area) and the elaboration of a database of tsunami events that is a fundamental part of the Oman Tsunami Warning System. The study included the characterization of the tsunamigenic sources affecting the study area and the numerical simulation of their generation, propagation and inundation.
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Omar Quetzalcóatl, Mauricio González, and Louise Guillou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1469–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1469-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recent tsunami events have exposed the need for further work to develop and apply tsunami risk reduction measures. A key parameter that must be adequately determined is the run-up, the maximum elevation to which water from a tsunami wave will rise during its flooding process. In this work, a new methodology to simply calculate the run-up is presented. The methodology has been applied to calculate a tsunami run-up database, where the run-up of new events can be calculated by interpolation.
Maria Ana Baptista, Jorge Miguel Miranda, Luis Matias, and Rachid Omira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1253–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1253-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1253-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present a methodology to compute a synthetic catalog of tsunami waveforms. To do this, we compute a synthetic earthquake catalog that respects the kinematics of the plate boundary. We use a method to do the fast computation of tsunami waveforms for all events of the synthetic waveform catalog. The method can be used in similar geological environments.
Maria Ana Baptista, Jorge Miguel Miranda, Josep Batlló, Filipe Lisboa, Joaquim Luis, and Ramon Maciá
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1967–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1967-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This is a new study on the 25 November 1941 earthquake and tsunami, Northeast Atlantic. The tsunami was recorded from Morocco to the UK. We present a new epicentre location and use tsunami data to compute the tsunami source. Results show that the earthquake ruptured a segment of the Eurasia–Nubia plate boundary. Other segments of the plate boundary may rupture and generate similar events. These conclusions are important for tsunami hazard assessment in the Northeast Atlantic.
M. Wronna, R. Omira, and M. A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2557–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2557-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2557-2015, 2015
R. Omira, D. Vales, C. Marreiros, and F. Carrilho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2183–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2183-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2183-2015, 2015
P. González-Riancho, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, O. García-Aguilar, R. Medina, M. González, I. Aniel-Quiroga, O. Q. Gutiérrez, J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, J. Larreynaga, and F. Gavidia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1223–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1223-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1223-2014, 2014
L. J. Otero, J. C. Restrepo, and M. Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1155–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1155-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1155-2014, 2014
P. González-Riancho, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, I. Aniel-Quiroga, S. Abad, M. González, J. Larreynaga, F. Gavidia, O. Q. Gutiérrez, J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, and R. Medina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3249–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3249-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3249-2013, 2013
J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, Í. Aniel-Quiroga, O. Q. Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, J. Larreynaga, M. González, M. Castro, F. Gavidia, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, P. González-Riancho, and E. Carreño
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2927–2939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2927-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2927-2013, 2013
D. A. S. Conde, M. A. V. Baptista, C. Sousa Oliveira, and R. M. L. Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2533-2013, 2013
R. Omira, M. A. Baptista, F. Leone, L. Matias, S. Mellas, B. Zourarah, J. M. Miranda, F. Carrilho, and J.-P. Cherel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1779–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1779-2013, 2013
L. M. Matias, T. Cunha, A. Annunziato, M. A. Baptista, and F. Carrilho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Untangling the Waves: Decomposing Extreme Sea Levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Using Random Forests to Predict Extreme Sea-Levels at the Baltic Coast at Weekly Timescales
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Tsunami detection methods for Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Batukaras Village as a Tourism Village in Indonesia
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-196, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantifications compared to the state-of-the-art. This win-win allows for increasing the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with a satisfactorily predictability (70 % correct predictions) using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 to 20 %. We could identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time the method can be used as a pre-warning system triggering the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2860, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras Village is a village on the southern coast of Java Island which is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, PTHA method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84 m, 1.63 m, 2.97 m, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250 years, 500 years, 1000 years, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java-Central Java megathrust segment.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Cited articles
Abe, K.: Synthesis of a Tsunami Spectrum in a Semi-Enclosed Basin Using Its Background Spectrum, Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 1101–1112, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0222-x, 2011.
Admire, A. R., Dengler, L. A., Crawford, G. B., Uslu, B. U., Borrero, J. C., Greer, S. D., and Wilson, R. I.: Observed and Modeled Currents from the Tohoku-oki, Japan and other Recent Tsunamis in Northern California, Pure Appl. Geophys., 171, 3385–3403, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0797-8, 2014.
Antonopoulos, J.: The great Minoan eruption of Thera volcano and the ensuing tsunami in the Greek Archipelago, Nat. Hazards, 5, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00127003, 1992.
Ayca, A. and Lynett, P. J.: Effect of tides and source location on nearshore tsunami-induced currents, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 8807–8820, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012435, 2016.
Ayca, A. and Lynett, P. J.: Debris and Vessel Transport due to Tsunami Currents in Ports and Harbors, Coast. Eng. Proc., 68, 68–68, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.currents.68, 2018.
Ayca, A. and Lynett, P. J.: Modeling the motion of large vessels due to tsunami-induced currents, Ocean Eng., 236, 109487, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109487, 2021.
Ayca, A., Lynett, P., Borrero, J., Miller, K., and Wilson, R.: Numerical and Physical Modeling of Localized Tsunami-Induced Currents in Harbors, Coast. Eng. Proc., 1, 6, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.currents.6, 2014.
Baptista, M. A., Miranda, J. M., Batlló, J., Lisboa, F., Luis, J., and Maciá, R.: New study on the 1941 Gloria Fault earthquake and tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1967–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1967-2016, 2016.
Belousov, A., Voight, B., Belousova, M., and Muravyev, Y.: Tsunamis generated by subaquatic volcanic explosions: Unique data from 1996 Eruption in Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka, Russia, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 1135–1143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050021, 2000.
Berger, M. J. and LeVeque, R. J.: Implicit Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Dispersive Tsunami Propagation, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 46, B554–B578, https://doi.org/10.1137/23M1585210, 2023.
Borrero, J. C., Lynett, P. J., and Kalligeris, N.: Tsunami currents in ports, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140372, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0372, 2015.
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART), https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/hazards/, 8 February 2022.
Choi, B. H., Pelinovsky, E., Kim, K. O., and Lee, J. S.: Simulation of the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation due to the 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 321–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-321-2003, 2003.
Clawpack: GeoClaw tsunami numerical code, http://www.clawpack.org, last access: 24 December 2023.
CNAT: https://www.tvperu.gob.pe/noticias/nacionales/cnat-no-existe-alerta-de-tsunami-en-el-litoral-peruano, last access: 6 February 2022.
CPAAAAE: Informe Final sobre las acciones de los funcionarios públicos y privados que ocasionaron el derrame de petróleo de la Empresa Multinacional REPSOL YPF S. A., Lima, 421 pp., 2023.
Dirección General De Aeronáutica Civil/Dirección Meteorológica de Chile (DGAC): Catastro de Estaciones del Sistema SACLIM, https://climatologia.meteochile.gob.cl/application/informacion/buscadorEstaciones, last access: 20 March 2023.
Dogan, G. G., Yalciner, A. C., Annunziato, A., Yalciner, B., and Necmioglu, O.: Global propagation of air pressure waves and consequent ocean waves due to the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, Ocean Eng., 267, 113174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113174, 2023.
Dormand, J. R. and Prince, P. J.: A family of embedded Runge-Kutta formulae, J. Comput. Appl. Math., 6, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/0771-050X(80)90013-3, 1980.
Falvard, S., Paris, R., Belousova, M., Belousov, A., Giachetti, T., and Cuven, S.: Scenario of the 1996 volcanic tsunamis in Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka, inferred from X-ray tomography of heavy minerals in tsunami deposits, Mar. Geol., 396, 160–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2017.04.011, 2018.
General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO): Global Bathymetric Data, https://download.gebco.net/, last access: 17 November 2022.
Goupillaud, P., Grossmann, A., and Morlet, J.: Cycle-octave and related transforms in seismic signal analysis, Geoexploration, 23, 85–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7142(84)90025-5, 1984.
Hayward, M. W., Whittaker, C. N., Lane, E. M., Power, W. L., Popinet, S., and White, J. D. L.: Multilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanism, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, 2022.
Hu, G., Li, L., Ren, Z., and Zhang, K.: The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023.
Hu, Y., Li, Z., Wang, L., Chen, B., Zhu, W., Zhang, S., Du, J., Zhang, X., Yang, J., Zhou, M., Liu, Z., Wang, S., Miao, C., Zhang, L., and Peng, J.: Rapid Interpretation and Analysis of the 2022 Eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano with Integrated Remote Sensing Techniques, Wuhan Daxue Xuebao (Xinxi Kexue Ban)/Geomatics Inf. Sci. Wuhan Univ. [J], 47, 242–251, https://doi.org/10.13203/J.WHUGIS20220050, 2022.
Imamura, F., Suppasri, A., Arikawa, T., Koshimura, S., Satake, K., and Tanioka, Y.: Preliminary Observations and Impact in Japan of the Tsunami Caused by the Tonga Volcanic Eruption on January 15, 2022, Pure Appl. Geophys., 179, 1549–1560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03058-0, 2022.
INDECI: https://www.gob.pe/institucion/indeci/noticias/576687-
inician-acciones-de-respuesta-luego-de-oleajes-en-el-litoral, last access: 22 April 2024.
Inoue, Y., Rafiqul Islam, M., and Murai, M.: Effect of wind, current and non-linear second order drift forces on a moored multi-body system in an irregular sea, in: Oceans Conference Record (IEEE), Honolulu, HI, USA, 5–8 November 2001, 1915–1922, https://doi.org/10.1109/oceans.2001.968139, 2001.
Journée, J. M. J. and Massie, W. W.: Offshore Hydromechanics, 1st edn., https://ocw.tudelft.nl/courses/offshore-hydromechanics/ (last access: 28 November 2023), 2001.
Kienle, J., Kowalik, Z., and Murty, T. S.: Tsunamis generated by eruptions from Mount St. Augustine Volcano, Alaska, Science , 236, 1442–1447, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.236.4807.1442, 1987.
Kim, J. and Omira, R.: The 6–7 July 2010 meteotsunami along the coast of Portugal: insights from data analysis and numerical modelling, Nat. Hazards, 106, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04335-8, 2021.
Kim, J., Pedersen, G. K., Løvholt, F., and LeVeque, R. J.: A Boussinesq type extension of the GeoClaw model – a study of wave breaking phenomena applying dispersive long wave models, Coast. Eng., 122, 75–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.01.005, 2017.
Kim, J., Choi, B. J., and Omira, R.: On the Greenspan resurgence of meteotsunamis in the Yellow Sea—insights from the newly discovered 11–12 June 2009 event, Nat. Hazards, 114, 1323–1340, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05427-3, 2022.
Kirby, J. T., Grilli, S. T., Horrillo, J., Liu, P. L.-F., Nicolsky, D., Abadie, S., Ataie-Ashtiani, B., Castro, M. J., Clous, L., Escalante, C., Fine, I., González-Vida, J. M., Løvholt, F., Lynett, P., Ma, G., Macías, J., Ortega, S., Shi, F., Yavari-Ramshe, S., and Zhang, C.: Validation and inter-comparison of models for landslide tsunami generation, Ocean Model., 170, 101943, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101943, 2022.
Kubota, T., Saito, T., and Nishida, K.: Global fast-traveling tsunamis driven by atmospheric Lamb waves on the 2022 Tonga eruption, Science, 377, 91–94, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4364, 2022.
López, M. and Iglesias, G.: Long wave effects on a vessel at berth, Appl. Ocean Res., 47, 63–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2014.03.008, 2014.
Lynett, P., McCann, M., Zhou, Z., Renteria, W., Borrero, J., Greer, D., Fa'anunu, O., Bosserelle, C., Jaffe, B., La Selle, S., Ritchie, A., Snyder, A., Nasr, B., Bott, J., Graehl, N., Synolakis, C., Ebrahimi, B., and Cinar, G. E.: Diverse tsunamigenesis triggered by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, Nature, 609, 728–733, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05170-6, 2022.
Lynett, P. J., Borrero, J. C., Weiss, R., Son, S., Greer, D., and Renteria, W.: Observations and modeling of tsunami-induced currents in ports and harbors, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 327–328, 68–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.02.002, 2012.
Lynett, P. J., Borrero, J., Son, S., Wilson, R., and Miller, K.: Assessment of the tsunami-induced current hazard, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2048–2055, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058680, 2014.
Madsen, P. A. and Sørensen, O. R.: A new form of the Boussinesq equations with improved linear dispersion characteristics. Part 2. A slowly-varying bathymetry, Coast. Eng., 18, 183–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(92)90019-Q, 1992.
Mandli, K. T. and Dawson, C. N.: Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Storm Surge, Ocean Model., 75, 36–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.01.002, 2014.
Matoza, R. S., Fee, D., Assink, J. D., Iezzi, A. M., Green, D. N., Kim, K., Toney, L., Lecocq, T., Krishnamoorthy, S., Lalande, J. M., Nishida, K., Gee, K. L., Haney, M. M., Ortiz, H. D., Brissaud, Q., Martire, L., Rolland, L., Vergados, P., Nippress, A., Park, J., Shani-Kadmiel, S., Witsil, A., Arrowsmith, S., Caudron, C., Watada, S., Perttu, A. B., Taisne, B., Mialle, P., Le Pichon, A., Vergoz, J., Hupe, P., Blom, P. S., Waxler, R., De Angelis, S., Snively, J. B., Ringler, A. T., Anthony, R. E., Jolly, A. D., Kilgour, G., Averbuch, G., Ripepe, M., Ichihara, M., Arciniega-Ceballos, A., Astafyeva, E., Ceranna, L., Cevuard, S., Che, I. Y., De Negri, R., Ebeling, C. W., Evers, L. G., Franco-Marin, L. E., Gabrielson, T. B., Hafner, K., Harrison, R. G., Komjathy, A., Lacanna, G., Lyons, J., Macpherson, K. A., Marchetti, E., McKee, K. F., Mellors, R. J., Mendo-Pérez, G., Mikesell, T. D., Munaibari, E., Oyola-Merced, M., Park, I., Pilger, C., Ramos, C., Ruiz, M. C., Sabatini, R., Schwaiger, H. F., Tailpied, D., Talmadge, C., Vidot, J., Webster, J., and Wilson, D. C.: Atmospheric waves and global seismoacoustic observations of the January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga, Science, 377, 95–100, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo7063, 2022.
NIWA: NIWA's climate, freshwater and marine science/ The National Climate Database (New Zealand), https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/obtaining-climate-data-niwa, last access: 20 March 2023.
OCIMF: Estimating The Environmental Loads On Anchoring Systems, Oil Companies International Marine Forum, London, 33 pp., ISBN 978-1856094047, 2010.
Oh, M. J., Ham, S. H., and Ku, N.: The coefficients of equipment number formula of ships, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 8, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8110898, 2020.
Ohgaki, K., Yoneyama, H., and Suzuki, T.: Evaluation on Safety of Moored Ships and Mooring Systems for a Tsunami Attack, Oceans 2008 – MTS/IEEE Kobe Techno-Ocean, Kobe, Japan, 8–11 April 2008, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSKOBE.2008.4530986, 2008.
Omira, R., Ramalho, R. S., Kim, J., González, P. J., Kadri, U., Miranda, J. M., Carrilho, F., and Baptista, M. A.: Global Tonga tsunami explained by a fast-moving atmospheric source, Nature, 609, 734–740, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04926-4, 2022.
Pakoksung, K., Suppasri, A., and Imamura, F.: The near-field tsunami generated by the 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano and its impact on Tongatapu, Tonga, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 15187, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19486-w, 2022.
Pararas-Carayannis, G.: The tsunami generated from the eruption of the volcano of Santorin in the Bronze Age, Nat. Hazards, 5, 115–123, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00127000, 1992.
Pararas-Carayannis, G.: Volcanic tsunami generating source mechanisms in the eastern Caribbean region, Sci. Tsunami Hazards, 22, 74–114, 2004.
Paris, R.: Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373, 20140380, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0380, 2015.
Paris, R., Switzer, A. D., Belousova, M., Belousov, A., Ontowirjo, B., Whelley, P. L., and Ulvrova, M.: Volcanic tsunami: A review of source mechanisms, past events and hazards in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea), Nat. Hazards, 70, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0822-8, 2014.
Pelinovsky, E., Choi, B. H., Stromkov, A., Didenkulova, I., and Kim, H. S.: Analysis of Tide-Gauge Records of the 1883 Krakatau Tsunami, Adv. Nat. Technol. Haz., 23, 57–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3331-1_4, 2005.
Proudman, J.: The Effects on the Sea of Changes in Atmospheric Pressure, Geophys. J. Int., 2, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1365-246X.1929.TB05408.X, 1929.
Rabinovich, A. B.: Spectral analysis of tsunami waves: Separation of source and topography effects, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 12663–12676, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC00479, 1997.
Ramírez-Herrera, M. T., Coca, O., and Vargas-Espinosa, V.: Tsunami Effects on the Coast of Mexico by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Eruption, Tonga, Pure Appl. Geophys., 179, 1117–1137, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00024-022-03017-9, 2022.
Sakakibara, S., Takeda, S., Iwamoto, Y., and Kubo, M.: A hybrid potential theory for predicting the motions of a moored ship induced by large-scaled tsunami, Ocean Eng., 37, 1564–1575, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2010.09.005, 2010.
Satake, K., Rabinovich, A. B., Dominey-Howes, D., and Borrero, J. C.: Introduction to “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume I. The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami”, Pure Appl. Geophys., 170, 955–961, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0615-0, 2013.
Shampine, L. F.: Some Practical Runge-Kutta Formulas, Math. Comput., 46, 135, https://doi.org/10.2307/2008219, 1986.
Shevchenko, G., Shishkin, A., Bogdanov, G., and Loskutov, A.: Tsunami Measurements in Bays of Shikotan Island, Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 2011–2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0284-4, 2011.
Shigeki, S. and Masayoshi, K.: Initial attack of large-scaled tsunami on ship motions and mooring loads, Ocean Eng., 36, 145–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2008.09.010, 2009.
SPDA Actualidad Ambiental: https://www.actualidadambiental.pe/
derrame-petroleo-cronologia-de-lo-sucedido-segun-el-capitan-
del-buque-mare-doricum-video/, last access: 1 March 2024.
Tahar, A. and Kim, M. H.: Hull/mooring/riser coupled dynamic analysis and sensitivity study of a tanker-based FPSO, Appl. Ocean Res., 25, 367–382, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2003.02.001, 2003.
Terry, J. P., Goff, J., Winspear, N., Bongolan, V. P., and Fisher, S.: Tonga volcanic eruption and tsunami, January 2022: globally the most significant opportunity to observe an explosive and tsunamigenic submarine eruption since AD 1883 Krakatau, Geosci. Lett., 9, 24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-022-00232-z, 2022.
The UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC): Sea level station monitoring facility, https://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/map.php, 8 February 2022.
Thomson, R. E., Rabinovich, A. B., Fine, I. V., Sinnott, D. C., McCarthy, A., Sutherland, N. A. S., and Neil, L. K.: Meteorological tsunamis on the coasts of British Columbia and Washington, Phys. Chem. Earth, 34, 971–988, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.10.003, 2009.
Tonga Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami: https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/what-we-do/disasters/disasters-activations/tonga-volcanic-eruption-tsunami-2022, last access: 15 December 2022.
UNESCO/IOC: Sea level station monitoring facility, Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), Sea level station monitoring facility, https://doi.org/10.14284/482, 2021.
Vergoz, J., Hupe, P., Listowski, C., Le Pichon, A., Garcés, M. A., Marchetti, E., Labazuy, P., Ceranna, L., Pilger, C., Gaebler, P., Näsholm, S. P., Brissaud, Q., Poli, P., Shapiro, N., De Negri, R., and Mialle, P.: IMS observations of infrasound and acoustic-gravity waves produced by the January 2022 volcanic eruption of Hunga, Tonga: A global analysis, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 591, 117639, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2022.117639, 2022.
Wilson, R., Lynett, P., Eskijian, M., Miller, K., LaDuke, Y., Curtis, E., Hornick, M., Keen, A., and Ayca, A.: Tsunami Hazard Analysis and Products for Harbors in California, in: Tsunami Hazards: Innovations in Mapping, Modeling, and Outreach, in: Geological Society of America Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, 23 October 2017, 49-6, https://doi.org/10.1130/abs/2017am-306344, 2017.
World Bank: Report Estimates Damages at US90M, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/
2022/02/14/tonga-volcanic-eruption-and-tsunami-world-bank-
disaster-assessment-report-estimates-damages-at-us-90m, last access: 28 February 2024.
Wright, C. J., Hindley, N. P., Alexander, M. J., Barlow, M., Hoffmann, L., Mitchell, C. N., Prata, F., Bouillon, M., Carstens, J., Clerbaux, C., Osprey, S. M., Powell, N., Randall, C. E., and Yue, J.: Surface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption, Nature, 609, 741–746, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05012-5, 2022.
Xu, Z., Sun, L., Rahman, M. N. A., Liang, S., Shi, J., and Li, H.: Insights on the small tsunami from January 28, 2020, Caribbean Sea MW7.7 earthquake by numerical simulation and spectral analysis, Nat. Hazards, 111, 2703–2719, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05154-1, 2022.
Yokoyama, I.: A geophysical interpretation of the 1883 Krakatau eruption, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 9, 359–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(81)90044-5, 1981.
Zheng, Z., Ma, X., Yan, M., Ma, Y., and Dong, G.: Hydrodynamic response of moored ships to seismic-induced harbor oscillations, Coast. Eng., 176, 104147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104147, 2022.
Executive editor
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption on January 15, 2022, caused a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT) that was detected globally. Over 10,000 kilometres from the eruption site, the moorings of a ship in Callao, Peru, failed, releasing more than 11,000 barrels of crude oil 15 hours post-eruption. The authors explore whether the Tonga 22 event led to the mooring failure. They analysed data from tide gauges, DART buoys, and barometers in the Southern Pacific Ocean. The maximum energy of the spectra showed a 120-minute wave period off the coast of Peru, coinciding with the accident's timing. Using a Boussinesq model, which simulates the movement and impact of waves in water, the authors examined the VMT's wave propagation to the Peruvian port and assessed the impact on the mooring system. The results indicated that the 120-minute wave significantly increased mooring stresses, surpassing the Minimum Break Load (MBL). The authors conclude that the VMT's long wave period caused mooring line overstresses, leading to port accidents. This event highlights the importance of Tsunami Early Warning Systems and port authority preparedness for VMTs induced by atmospheric acoustic waves, offering new insights into the Tonga 2022 tsunami's extensive impacts.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption on January 15, 2022, caused a...
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint