Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024
Research article
 | 
30 Aug 2024
Research article |  | 30 Aug 2024

Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums

Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz

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Cited articles

Aguilar, C., Montanari, A., and Polo, M.-J.: Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3687–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017, 2017. 
Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P.: Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4067–4077, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9947, 2014 (data available at: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/1d128b6c-a4ee-4858-9e34-6210707f3c81, last access: 1 October 2020). 
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 199–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004, 2015. 
Apel, H., Gouweleeuw, B., Gafurov, A., and Güntner, A.: Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 031006, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1681, 2019. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
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