Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 15 Aug 2022
| 15 Aug 2022
Introducing SlideforMAP: a probabilistic finite slope approach for modelling shallow-landslide probability in forested situations
Feiko Bernard van Zadelhoff
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Länggasse 85, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
Adel Albaba
HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Länggasse 85, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
Denis Cohen
CoSci LLC, Placitas, NM 87043, USA
Chris Phillips
Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
Bettina Schaefli
Institute of Geography (GIUB) & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Luuk Dorren
HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Länggasse 85, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
International EcorisQ Association, P.O. Box 2348, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
Massimiliano Schwarz
HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Länggasse 85, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
International EcorisQ Association, P.O. Box 2348, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Xinyang Fan, Florentin Hofmeister, Bettina Schaefli, and Gabriele Chiogna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1500, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt a fully-distributed, physics-based hydrological modeling approach, to understand streamflow variations and their interactions with groundwater in a high-elevation glaciated environment. We demonstrate opportunities and challenges of integrating point-scale groundwater observations into a distributed model. This study sheds new lights on surface-subsurface processes in high alpine environments and highlights the importance of improving subsurface representation in hydrological modeling.
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Potato farmers in Switzerland are facing drier conditions and water restrictions. We explored how improving soil health and planting early-maturing potato varieties might help them to adapt. Using a computer model, we simulated potato yields and irrigation water needs under water scarcity. Our results show that earlier-maturing potato varieties reduce the reliance on irrigation but result in lower yields. However, improving soil health can significantly reduce yield losses.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart N. Lane, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until we observe overparameterization.
Elisa Marras, Dominik May, Luuk Dorren, and Filippo Giadrossich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-226, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The simulation of runout zones is crucial for mitigating gravitational natural hazards. To address the trade off between accuracy and simplicity, equations of motion for the energy line principle are implemented and applied in a case study. The results show that this approach improves simulation accuracy while maintaining model simplicity. This method offers a promising solution for preliminary analyses of gravitational natural hazards at large scales.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Bettina Schaefli, Ross Woods, and Joshua R. Larsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1214, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Investigating changing snow in response to global warming can be done with a simple model and only temperature and precipitation data, simplifying snow dynamics with assumptions and parameters. We provide a large-scale and long-term evaluation of this approach and its performance across diverse climates. Temperature thresholds are more robust over cold climates but melt parameters are more robust over warmer climates with deep snow. The model performs well across climates despite its simplicity.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Tom Müller, Mauro Fischer, Stuart N. Lane, and Bettina Schaefli
The Cryosphere, 19, 423–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-423-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-423-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Based on extensive field observations in a highly glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps, we develop a combined isotopic and glacio-hydrological model. We show that water stable isotopes may help to better constrain model parameters, especially those linked to water transfer. However, we highlight that separating snow and ice melt for temperate glaciers based on isotope mixing models alone is not advised and should only be considered if their isotopic signatures have clearly different values.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Proc. IAHS, 385, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impact of climate change on the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) flows and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB). Several climate change projection data are use to simulate river flow under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Future projections show that AMF could increase with various magnitude but negligible shift in time across the VRB, while MAM could decrease with up to 14 days of delay in occurrence.
Tom Müller, Matteo Roncoroni, Davide Mancini, Stuart N. Lane, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 735–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of a newly formed floodplain in an alpine glaciated catchment to store and release water. Based on field measurements, we built a numerical model to simulate the water fluxes and show that recharge occurs mainly due to the ice-melt-fed river. We identify three future floodplains, which could emerge from glacier retreat, and show that their combined storage leads to some additional groundwater storage but contributes little additional baseflow for the downstream river.
Denis Cohen, Guillaume Jouvet, Thomas Zwinger, Angela Landgraf, and Urs H. Fischer
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 72, 189–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-189-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During glacial times in Switzerland, glaciers of the Alps excavated valleys in low-lying regions that were later filled with sediment or water. How glaciers eroded these valleys is not well understood because erosion occurred near ice margins where ice moved slowly and was present for short times. Erosion is linked to the speed of ice and to water flowing under it. Here we present a model that estimates the location of water channels beneath the ice and links these locations to zones of erosion.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Bettina Schaefli, Ross Woods, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Joshua R. Larsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2577–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a dataset of snow water equivalent, the depth of liquid water that results from melting a given depth of snow. The dataset contains 11 071 sites over the Northern Hemisphere, spans the period 1950–2022, and is based on daily observations of snow depth on the ground and a model. The dataset fills a lack of accessible historical ground snow data, and it can be used for a variety of applications such as the impact of climate change on global and regional snow and water resources.
Alessio Gentile, Davide Canone, Natalie Ceperley, Davide Gisolo, Maurizio Previati, Giulia Zuecco, Bettina Schaefli, and Stefano Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2301–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
What drives young water fraction, F*yw (i.e., the fraction of water in streamflow younger than 2–3 months), variations with elevation? Why is F*yw counterintuitively low in high-elevation catchments, in spite of steeper topography? In this paper, we present a perceptual model explaining how the longer low-flow duration at high elevations, driven by the persistence of winter snowpacks, increases the proportion of stored (old) water contributing to the stream, thus reducing F*yw.
Anthony Michelon, Natalie Ceperley, Harsh Beria, Joshua Larsen, Torsten Vennemann, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1403–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow generation processes in high-elevation catchments are largely influenced by snow accumulation and melt. For this work, we collected and analyzed more than 2800 water samples (temperature, electric conductivity, and stable isotopes of water) to characterize the hydrological processes in such a high Alpine environment. Our results underline the critical role of subsurface flow during all melt periods and the presence of snowmelt even during the winter periods.
Tom Müller, Stuart N. Lane, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6029–6054, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research provides a comprehensive analysis of groundwater storage in Alpine glacier forefields, a zone rapidly evolving with glacier retreat. Based on data analysis of a case study, it provides a simple perceptual model showing where and how groundwater is stored and released in a high Alpine environment. It especially points out the presence of groundwater storages in both fluvial and bedrock aquifers, which may become more important with future glacier retreat.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in Europe vary on time scales of several decades. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods alternate. Recently floods have again become more frequent. Long time series of peak stream flow, precipitation, and atmospheric variables reveal that until around 1980, these changes were mostly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, in recent decades the role of increasing atmospheric moisture due to climate warming has become more important and is now the main driver of flood changes.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Anthony Michelon, Lionel Benoit, Harsh Beria, Natalie Ceperley, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2301–2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2301-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2301-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall observation remains a challenge, particularly in mountain environments. Unlike most studies which are model based, this analysis of the rainfall–runoff response of a 13.4 km2 alpine catchment is purely data based and relies on measurements from a network of 12 low-cost rain gauges over 3 months. It assesses the importance of high-density rainfall observations in informing hydrological processes and helps in designing a permanent rain gauge network.
Elvira Mächler, Anham Salyani, Jean-Claude Walser, Annegret Larsen, Bettina Schaefli, Florian Altermatt, and Natalie Ceperley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 735–753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-735-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-735-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we collected water from an Alpine catchment in Switzerland and compared the genetic information of eukaryotic organisms conveyed by eDNA with the hydrologic information conveyed by naturally occurring hydrologic tracers. At the intersection of two disciplines, our study provides complementary knowledge gains and identifies the next steps to be addressed for using eDNA to achieve complementary insights into Alpine water sources.
Aaron Micallef, Remus Marchis, Nader Saadatkhah, Potpreecha Pondthai, Mark E. Everett, Anca Avram, Alida Timar-Gabor, Denis Cohen, Rachel Preca Trapani, Bradley A. Weymer, and Phillipe Wernette
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study coastal gullies along the Canterbury coast of New Zealand using field observations, sample analyses, drones, satellites, geophysical instruments and modelling. We show that these coastal gullies form when rainfall intensity is higher than 40 mm per day. The coastal gullies are formed by landslides where buried channels or sand lenses are located. This information allows us to predict where coastal gullies may form in the future.
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Bettina Schaefli, and Jan Seibert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3521–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks.
Moctar Dembélé, Bettina Schaefli, Nick van de Giesen, and Grégoire Mariéthoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5379–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates 102 combinations of rainfall and temperature datasets from satellite and reanalysis sources as input to a fully distributed hydrological model. The model is recalibrated for each input dataset, and the outputs are evaluated with streamflow, evaporation, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage data. Results show that no single rainfall or temperature dataset consistently ranks first in reproducing the spatio-temporal variability of all hydrological processes.
Harsh Beria, Joshua R. Larsen, Anthony Michelon, Natalie C. Ceperley, and Bettina Schaefli
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2433-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a Bayesian mixing model to address the issue of small sample sizes to describe different sources in hydrological mixing applications. Using composite likelihood functions, the model accounts for an often overlooked bias arising due to unweighted mixing. We test the model efficacy using a series of statistical benchmarking tests and demonstrate its real-life applicability by applying it to a Swiss Alpine catchment to obtain the proportion of groundwater recharged from rain vs. snow.
Anthony Michelon, Lionel Benoit, Harsh Beria, Natalie Ceperley, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-683, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall observation remains a challenge particularly in mountain environments. Unlike most studies which are model based, this analysis of the rainfall-runoff response of a 13.4 km2 alpine catchment is purely data-based and rely on measures from a network of 12 low-cost raingauges over 3 months. It assesses the importance of high-density rainfall observations to inform hydrological processes and help to design a permanent raingauge network.
Adrien Michel, Tristan Brauchli, Michael Lehning, Bettina Schaefli, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 115–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-115-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study constitutes the first comprehensive analysis of river
temperature in Switzerland combined with discharge and key meteorological variables, such as air temperature and precipitation. It is also the first study to discuss the large-scale seasonal behaviour of stream temperature in Switzerland. This research shows the clear increase of river temperature in Switzerland over the last few decades and may serve as a solid reference for future climate change scenario simulations.
Adel Albaba, Massimiliano Schwarz, Corinna Wendeler, Bernard Loup, and Luuk Dorren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a discrete-element-based model which is adapted and used to produce hillslope debris flows. The model parameters were calibrated using field experiments, and a very good agreement was found in terms of pressure and flow velocity. Calibration results suggested that a link might exist between the model parameters and the initial conditions of the granular material. However, to better understand this link, further investigations are required by conducting detailed lab-scale experiments.
Elvira Mächler, Anham Salyani, Jean-Claude Walser, Annegret Larsen, Bettina Schaefli, Florian Altermatt, and Natalie Ceperley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-551, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We explored what genetic material collected from water (eDNA) tells us about the flow of mountain streams, which are particularly valuable for habitat and water resources, but highly variable. We saw that when flow increased, more diverse eDNA was transported, especially in the main channel and tributaries. Whereas in the springs, we saw more diverse eDNA when the electrical conductivity of the water increased, likely indicating more underground surface contact.
Denis Cohen, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Wilfried Haeberli, Horst Machguth, and Urs H. Fischer
The Cryosphere, 12, 2515–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
As part of an integrative study about the safety of repositories for radioactive waste under ice age conditions in Switzerland, we modeled the flow of ice of the Rhine glacier at the Last Glacial Maximum to determine conditions at the ice–bed interface. Results indicate that portions of the ice lobes were at the melting temperature and ice was sliding, two conditions necessary for erosion by glacier. Conditions at the bed of the ice lobes were affected by climate and also by topography.
Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Andrea Rinaldo, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2377–2389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the performance of an analytical modeling framework for probability distributions for summer streamflow of 25 Swiss catchments that present a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including snow- and icemelt-influenced streamflows. Two versions of the model were tested: linear and nonlinear. The results show that the model performs well for summer discharges under all analyzed regimes and that model performance varies with mean catchment elevation.
Massimiliano Schwarz, Filippo Giadrossich, Peter Lüscher, and Peter F. Germann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-761, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation strongly influences the hydrology of hillslopes that are important for the mitigation of flood risks. In this work we present a new conceptual model that aims to link the effect of tree roots combined to the preferential flow of water. We use data from field experiments, coupled to tree position and dimension for the quantification of water preferential flow patches of a vegetated hillslope, considering topography and soil profile characteristics.
Denis Cohen and Massimiliano Schwarz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 451–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-451-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Tree roots reinforce soils on slopes. A new slope stability model is presented that computes root reinforcement including the effects of root heterogeneities and dependence of root strength on tensile and compressive strain. Our results show that roots stabilize slopes that would otherwise fail under a rainfall event. Tension in roots is more effective than compression. Redistribution of forces in roots across the hillslope plays a key role in the stability of the slope during rainfall events.
Christine Moos, Luuk Dorren, and Markus Stoffel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 291–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. This was done based on 3-D rockfall simulations for different forest and non-forest scenarios on a virtual slope. The rockfall frequency and intensity below forested slopes is significantly reduced. Statistical models provide information on how specific forest and terrain parameters influence this reduction and they allow prediction and quantification of the forest effect.
A. Gallice, B. Schaefli, M. Lehning, M. B. Parlange, and H. Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3727–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3727-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3727-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new model to estimate the monthly mean stream temperature of ungauged rivers over multiple years in an Alpine country. Contrary to the other approaches developed to date, which are usually based on standard regression techniques, our model makes use of the understanding that we have about the physics controlling stream temperature. On top of its accuracy being comparable to that of the other models, it can be used to gain some knowledge about the stream temperature dynamics
F. Giadrossich, M. Niedda, D. Cohen, and M. Pirastru
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2451–2468, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2451-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2451-2015, 2015
B. Schaefli, L. Nicótina, C. Imfeld, P. Da Ronco, E. Bertuzzo, and A. Rinaldo
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2733–2746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2733-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response of the Laboratory of Ecohydrology of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne for hydrologic simulation at the catchment scale. It simulates the mobilization of water at the subcatchment scale and the transport to the outlet through a convolution with the river network. We discuss the parameter estimation and model performance for discharge simulation in the high Alpine Dischmabach catchment (Switzerland).
M. Schwarz, F. Giadrossich, and D. Cohen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4367–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4367-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
From rockfall source area identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested on El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)
Brief communication: Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling using bivariate mapping
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology
A participatory approach to determine the use of road cut slope design guidelines in Nepal to lessen landslides
An integrated method for assessing vulnerability of buildings caused by debris flows in mountainous areas
Identifying unrecognised risks to life from debris flows
Predicting the thickness of shallow landslides in Switzerland using machine learning
Unraveling landslide failure mechanisms with seismic signal analysis for enhanced pre-survey understanding
Comparison of conditioning factor classification criteria in large-scale statistically based landslide susceptibility models
Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems
Predicting deep-seated landslide displacement on Taiwan's Lushan through the integration of convolutional neural networks and the Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer
Limit analysis of earthquake-induced landslides considering two strength envelopes
The vulnerability of buildings to a large-scale debris flow and outburst flood hazard cascade that occurred on 30 August 2020 in Ganluo, southwest China
Optimizing rainfall-triggered landslide thresholds for daily landslide hazard warning in the Three Gorges Reservoir area
Is higher resolution always better? Open-access DEM comparison for Slope Units delineation and regional landslide prediction
Brief communication: Monitoring impending slope failure with very high-resolution spaceborne synthetic aperture radar
Size scaling of large landslides from incomplete inventories
InSAR-informed in situ monitoring for deep-seated landslides: insights from El Forn (Andorra)
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Comparative Analysis of μ (I) and Voellmy-Type Grain Flow Rheologies in Geophysical Mass Flows: Insights from Theoretical and Real Case Studies
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties on GLOF modelling results using the state-of-the-art modelling code, r.avaflow
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
A regional analysis of paraglacial landslide activation in southern coastal Alaska
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Roberto Sarro, Mauro Rossi, Paola Reichenbach, and Rosa María Mateos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1459–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel systematic workflow that integrates source area identification, deterministic runout modelling, the classification of runout outputs to derive susceptibility zonation, and robust procedures for validation and comparison. The proposed approach enables the integration and comparison of different modelling, introducing a robust and consistent workflow/methodology that allows us to derive and verify rockfall susceptibility zonation, considering different steps.
Matthias Schlögl, Anita Graser, Raphael Spiekermann, Jasmin Lampert, and Stefan Steger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Communicating uncertainties is a crucial yet challenging aspect of spatial modelling – especially in applied research, where results inform decisions. In disaster risk reduction, susceptibility maps for natural hazards guide planning and risk assessment, yet their uncertainties are often overlooked. We present a new type of landslide susceptibility map that visualizes both susceptibility and associated uncertainty alongside guidelines for creating such maps using free and open-source software.
Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, and Jonathan P. Perkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1229–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People often live and work in these areas, leading to property damage and deaths. Landslide runout may occur on hillslopes or in channels, requiring different modeling approaches. We develop methods to identify potential runout zones and apply these methods to identify susceptible areas for three municipalities in Puerto Rico.
Jonathan Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 949–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study with road engineers aimed to assess how road slope design guidelines in Nepal can be improved. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to a lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We present general recommendations to enhance road slope management, as well as technical recommendations to improve the guidelines.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an integrated method using a combination of a physical vulnerability matrix and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on collected historical data on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study on the Cilan landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the first event of CL consisted of four sliding failures accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The second and third events were minor toppling and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the spatiotemporal variation in landslide evolution is proposed.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with 5 statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing 8 years of data from Taiwan's Lushan, improving early warning and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a 3D limit analysis for seismic stability of soil slopes to address the influence of earthquakes on slope stabilities with nonlinear and linear criteria. Comparison results illustrate that the use of a linear envelope leads to the non-negligible overestimation of steep-slope stability, and this overestimation will be significant with increasing earthquakes. Earthquakes have a smaller influence on slope slip surfaces with a nonlinear envelope than those with a linear envelope.
Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Yu Zhuang, Brian W. McArdell, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study reformulates the μ(I) rheology into a Voellmy-type relationship to elucidate its physical implications. The μ(I) rheology, incorporating a dimensionless inertial number, mimics granular temperature effects, reflecting shear thinning behavior of mass flows. However, its constant Coulomb friction coefficient limits accuracy in modeling deposition. Comparing μ(I) with Voellmy-type rheologies reveals strengths and limitations, enhancing mass flow modeling and engineering applications.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a study of eight landslides adjacent to glaciers in Alaska, we found that landslide movement increased as the glacier retreated past the landslide at four sites. Movement at other sites coincided with heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little-to-no motion. We suggest that landslides next to water-terminating glaciers may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates and water replacing ice at the landslide edge.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, and Nick J. Rosser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this study, we show that there is a poor correlation between building damage and deaths from landslides- such that the deadliest landslides do not always destroy the most buildings and vice versa. This has important implications for our management on landslide risk.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Cited articles
Amishev, D., Basher, L., Phillips, C. J., Hill, S., Marden, M., Bloomberg, M.,
and Moore, J. R.: New forest management approaches to steep hills, Ministry
for Primary Industries, ISBN 9780478437867, 2014. a
Askarinejad, A., Casini, F., Bischof, P., Beck, A., and Springman, S. M.:
Rainfall induced instabilities: a field experiment on a silty sand slope in
northern Switzerland, rivista italiana di geotecnica, 12, 50–71,
http://www.associazionegeotecnica.it/rig/archivio (last access: 20 April 2021), 2012. a, b
Askarinejad, A., Akca, D., and Springman, S. M.: Precursors of instability in
a natural slope due to rainfall: a full-scale experiment, Landslides, 15,
1745–1759, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-0994-0, 2018. a
Badoux, A., Andres, N., Techel, F., and Hegg, C.: Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2747–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2747-2016, 2016. a, b
Baeza, C. and Corominas, J.: Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by
means of multivariate statistical techniques, Earth Surf. Processes, 26, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.263, 2001. a
Bárdossy, A.: Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-703-2007, 2007. a, b
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS – a Fortran program for
transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability
analysis, US geological survey open-file report, 424, 38, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr02424, 2002. a
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: Model calibration
and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305, 1992. a, b
Beven, K. and Freer, J.: A dynamic topmodel, Hydrol. Process., 15,
1993–2011, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.252, 2001. a
Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: A physically based, variable contributing area
model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. B., 24, 43–69,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667909491834, 1979. a
Blazkova, S., Beven, K., Tacheci, P., and Kulasova, A.: Testing the
distributed water table predictions of TOPMODEL (allowing for uncertainty in
model calibration): The death of TOPMODEL?, Water Resour. Res., 38, 39-1, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001wr000912, 2002. a
Bodner, G., Leitner, D., and Kaul, H. P.: Coarse and fine root plants affect
pore size distributions differently, Plant Soil, 380, 133–151,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-014-2079-8, 2014. a
Bordoni, M., Meisina, C., Valentino, R., Lu, N., Bittelli, M., and Chersich,
S.: Hydrological factors affecting rainfall-induced shallow landslides: From
the field monitoring to a simplified slope stability analysis, Eng. Geol., 193, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.04.006, 2015. a, b
Borga, M., Dalla Fontana, G., Gregoretti, C., and Marchi, L.: Assessment of
shallow landsliding by using a physically based model of hillslope
stability, Hydrol. Process., 16, 2833–2851, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1074,
2002. a
Cervi, F., Berti, M., Borgatti, L., Ronchetti, F., Manenti, F., and Corsini,
A.: Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods
for landslide susceptibility mapping: A case study in the northern Apennines
(Reggio Emilia Province, Italy), Landslides, 7, 433–444,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0207-y, 2010. a
Chae, B. G., Park, H. J., Catani, F., Simoni, A., and Berti, M.: Landslide
prediction, monitoring and early warning: a concise review of
state-of-the-art, Geosci. J., 21, 1033–1070,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-017-0034-4, 2017. a
Cislaghi, A., Rigon, E., Lenzi, M. A., and Bischetti, G. B.: A probabilistic
multidimensional approach to quantify large wood recruitment from hillslopes
in mountainous-forested catchments, Geomorphology, 306, 108–127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.01.009, 2018. a, b
Cohen, D. and Schwarz, M.: Tree-root control of shallow landslides, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 451–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-451-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Cohen, D., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Fiber bundle model for multiscale modeling
of hydromechanical triggering of shallow landslides, Water Resour.
Res., 45, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007889, 2009. a, b
Corominas, J., van Westen, C., Frattini, P., Cascini, L., Malet, J. P.,
Fotopoulou, S., Catani, F., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Mavrouli, O., Agliardi,
F., Pitilakis, K., Winter, M. G., Pastor, M., Ferlisi, S., Tofani, V.,
Hervás, J., and Smith, J. T.: Recommendations for the quantitative
analysis of landslide risk, B. Eng. Geol. Environ., 73, 209–263, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f
Day, R. W.: State of the art: Limit equilibrium and finite-element analysis of
slopes, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 123, 894,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(1997)123:9(894), 1997. a
Dazio, E. P. R., Conedera, M., and Schwarz, M.: Impact of different chestnut
coppice managements on root reinforcement and shallow landslide
susceptibility, Forest Ecol. Manag., 417, 63–76,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.031, 2018. a
Dietrich, W. E. and Montgomery, D. R.: SHALSTAB: a digital terrainmodel for
mapping shallow landslide potential., Tech. rep., NCASI (NationalCouncil of
the Paper Industry for Air and Stream Improvement),http://calm.geo.berkeley.edu/geomorph/shalstab/index.htm (last access: 25 August 2021), 1998. a
D'Odorico, P. and Fagherazzi, S.: A probabilistic model of rainfall-triggered
shallow landslides in hollows: A long-term analysis, Water Resour.
Res., 39, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001595, 2003. a
Dorren, L.: FINT – Find individual trees, User manual, ecorisQ paper, 5 p.,
https://www.ecorisq.org/, (last access: 10 December 2017), 2017. a
Dorren, L. and Sandri, A.: Landslide risk mapping for the entire Swiss
national road network, Proceedings of the International Conference “Landslide Processes”, 6–7 February 2009, 2009. a
Dysli, M. and Rybisar, J.: Statistique sur les caractéristiques des sols
suisses- Statistische Behandlung der Kennwerte der Schweizer Boeden,
Bundesamt fuer Strassenbau, Institut Francais des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR), 128 p., accession no. 01233497, 1992. a, b
Eysn, L., Hollaus, M., Lindberg, E., Berger, F., Monnet, J. M., Dalponte, M.,
Kobal, M., Pellegrini, M., Lingua, E., Mongus, D., and Pfeifer, N.: A
benchmark of lidar-based single tree detection methods using heterogeneous
forest data from the Alpine Space, Forests, 6, 1721–1747,
https://doi.org/10.3390/f6051721, 2015. a, b
Fawcett, T.: An introduction to ROC analysis, Pattern Recogn. Lett., 27, 861–874, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010, 2006. a
Feng, S., Liu, H. W., and Ng, C. W.: Analytical analysis of the mechanical and
hydrological effects of vegetation on shallow slope stability, Comput. Geotech., 118, 103335, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2019.103335, 2020. a
Freeze, R. A. and Cherry, J. A.: Groundwater, No. 629.1 F7, ISBN 0133653129, 1979. a
Frei, C., Isotta, F., and Schwanbeck, J.: Mean Precipitation 1981–2010, in:
Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland, Geographisches Institut der
Universität Bern, https://hydromaps.ch/#de/8/46.830/8.190/bl_hds--b01_b0100_rnormy8110v1_0$0/NULL, last access: 26 October 2020. a
Giadrossich, F., Schwarz, M., Marden, M., Marrosu, R., and Phillips, C.:
Minimum representative root distribution sampling for calculating slope
stability in pinus radiata D.Don plantations in New Zealand, New Zeal.
J. For. Sci., 50, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.33494/nzjfs502020x68x, 2020. a
González-Ollauri, A. and Mickovski, S. B.: Integrated Model for the
Hydro-Mechanical Effects of Vegetation Against Shallow Landslides, EQA –
International Journal of Environmental Quality, 13, 37–59,
https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.2281-4485/4535, 2014. a
Grabs, T., Seibert, J., Bishop, K., and Laudon, H.: Modeling spatial patterns
of saturated areas: A comparison of the topographic wetness index and a
dynamic distributed model, J. Hydrol., 373, 15–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.031, 2009. a
Griffiths, D. V., Huang, J., and Fenton, G. A.: Influence of Spatial
Variability on Slope Reliability Using 2-D Random Fields, J.
Geotech. Geoenviron., 135, 1367–1378,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)gt.1943-5606.0000099, 2009. a, b
HADES:
https://hydrologischeratlas.ch/downloads/01/content/Text_Tafel24.de.pdf (last access: 30 September 2020),
2020. a
Hawley, J. and Dymond, J.: How much do trees reduce landsliding?, J. Soil Water Conserv., 43, 495–498, 1988. a
Hess, D. M., Leshchinsky, B. A., Bunn, M., Benjamin Mason, H., and Olsen,
M. J.: A simplified three-dimensional shallow landslide susceptibility
framework considering topography and seismicity, Landslides, 14, 1677–1697,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0810-2, 2017. a
Iida, T.: A stochastic hydro-geomorphological model for shallow landsliding
due to rainstorm, Catena, 34, 293–313, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(98)00093-9,
1999. a
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour.
Res., 36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090, 2000. a
Jensen, H., Lang, H., and Rinderknecht, J.: Extreme Punktregen
unterschiedlicher Dauer und Wiederkehrperioden 1901–1970, Tafel 2.4, in:
Hydrologischer Atlas der Schweiz, Geographisches Institut der
Universität Bern, https://hydromaps.ch/#de/8/46.830/8.190/bl_hds--b04_b0401_precip_60m_2a_0_5v2_0$4/NULL, (last access: 31 January 2020), 1997. a
Johnson, N. L. and Kotz, S.: Continuous univariate distributions, Houghton
Mifflin, Boston, 1, 70018030, https://books.google.ch/books?id=-wPvAAAAMAAJ (last access: 20 February 2021), 1970. a
Kirkby, M.: Hydrograph modelling strategies, 69–90, in: Processes in Physical and Human Geography, edited by: Peel, R., Chisholm, M., and
Haggert, P., Heineman, London, 69–90, 1975. a
Kjekstad, O. and Highland, L.: Economic and Social Impacts of Landslides,
in: Landslides – Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K. and Canuti, P., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_30, 2009. a
Korpela, I., Dahlin, B., Schäfer, H., Bruun, E., Haapaniemi, F.,
Honkasalo, J., Ilvesniemi, S., Kuutti, V., Linkosalmi, M., Mustonen, J.,
Salo, M., Suomi, O., and Virtanen, H.: Single-tree forest inventory using
lidar and aerial images for 3D treetop positioning, species recognition,
height and crown width estimation, International Archives of the
Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 36,
227–233, 2007. a
Lehmann, P., Gambazzi, F., Suski, B., Baron, L., Askarinejad, A., Springman,
S. M., Holliger, K., and Or, D.: Evolution of soil wetting patterns
preceding a hydrologically induced landslide inferred from electrical
resistivity survey and point measurements of volumetric water content and
pore water pressure, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7992–8004,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014560, 2013. a, b
Leonarduzzi, E., Molnar, P., and McArdell, B. W.: Predictive performance of
rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily
data, Water Resour. Res., 53, 6612–6625, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021044,
2017. a, b
Li, W. C., Lee, L. M., Cai, H., Li, H. J., Dai, F. C., and Wang, M. L.:
Combined roles of saturated permeability and rainfall characteristics on
surficial failure of homogeneous soil slope, Eng. Geol. 153,
105–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.11.017, 2013. a
Malamud, B., Turcotte, D., Guzzetti, F., and Reichenbach, P.: Landslide
inventories and their statistical properties, Earth Surf. Processes, 29, 687–711, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1064, 2004. a
Masi, E. B., Segoni, S., and Tofani, V.: Root reinforcement in slope stability
models: A review, Geosciences (Switzerland), 11, 212, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11050212, 2021. a
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J.: Comparison of three methods
for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a
computer code, Technometrics, 21, 239–245,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1979.10489755, 1979. a
Metz, C. E.: Basic principles of ROC analysis, Semin. Nucl. Med.,
8, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-2998(78)80014-2, 1978. a
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the
topographic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30,
1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979, 1994. a, b
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: Reply to comment by Richard M. Iverson
on “piezometric response in shallow bedrock at cb1: implications for runoff
generation and landsliding”, Water Resour. Res., 40, W03802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002815, 2004. a
Montgomery, D. R., Schmidt, K. M., Greenberg, H. M., and Dietrich, W. E.:
Forest clearing and regional landsliding, Geology, 28, 311–314,
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28<311:FCARL>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a, b, c
Montgomery, D. R., Dietrich, W. E., and Heffner, J. T.: Piezometric response
in shallow bedrock at CB1: Implications for runoff generation and
landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1274,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002wr001429, 2002. a
Montrasio, L. and Valentino, R.: A model for triggering mechanisms of shallow landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1149–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1149-2008, 2008. a
Montrasio, L., Valentino, R., and Losi, G. L.: Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1927–1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1927-2011, 2011. a
Mosley, M. P.: Subsurface flow velocities through selected forest soils, South
Island, New Zealand, J. Hydrol., 55, 65–92,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90121-4, 1982. a
O'Callaghan, J. and Mark, D.: The Extraction of Drainage Networks from
Digital Elevation Data, Comput. Vision Grap., 28,
323–344, https://doi.org/10.1016/0734-189X(89)90053-4, 1984. a
O'Loughlin, E. M.: Prediction of Surface Saturation Zones in Natural
catchments by Topographic Analysis, Water Resour. Res., 22, 794–804,
1986. a
Pack, R. T., Tarboton, D. G., and Goodwin, C. N.: The SINMAP Approach to
Terrain Stability Mapping, in: 8th Congress of the International Association of
Engineering Geology, Vancouver, British
Columbia, Canada, 21–25 September 1998, edited by: Moore, D. and Hungr, O., Vol. 2: Engineering Geology And Natural Hazards, A A Balkema, 1157–1166, 1998. a, b, c, d
Park, H. J., Lee, J. H., and Woo, I.: Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow
landslide susceptibility using a GIS-based probabilistic approach,
Eng. Geol., 161, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.04.011, 2013. a
Prancevic, J. P., Lamb, M. P., McArdell, B. W., Rickli, C., and Kirchner,
J. W.: Decreasing Landslide Erosion on Steeper Slopes in Soil-Mantled
Landscapes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087505, 2020. a
Price, B., Gomez, A., Mathys, L., Gardi, O., Schellenberger, A., Ginzler, C.,
and Thürig, E.: Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide
modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees,
Environ. Monit. Assess., 189, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-5816-7, 2017. a
Reinhold, S., Medicus, G., Fellin, W., and Zangerl, C.: The influence of
deforestation on slope (In-) stability, Austrian J. Earth Sci.,
102, 90–99, https://doi.org/10.1139/t01-031, 2009. a
Rickli, C. and Graf, F.: Effects of forests on shallow landslides – case
studies in Switzerland, Forest Snow and Landscape Research, 44, 33–44, 2009. a
Rickli, C., Graf, F., Bebi, P., Bast, A., Loupt, B., and McArdell, B.:
Schützt der Wald vor Rutschungen? Hinweise aus der
WSL-Rutschungsdatenbank, Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen, 170,
310–317, https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2019.0310, 2019. a
Roering, J., Schmidt, K. M., Stock, J. D., Dietrich, W. E., and Montgomery,
D. R.: Shallow landsliding, root reinforcement, and the spatial distribution
of trees in the Oregon Coast Range, Can. Geotech. J., 40,
237–253, 2003. a
Salvatici, T., Tofani, V., Rossi, G., D'Ambrosio, M., Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Masi, E. B., Rosi, A., Pazzi, V., Vannocci, P., Petrolo, M., Catani, F., Ratto, S., Stevenin, H., and Casagli, N.: Application of a physically based model to forecast shallow landslides at a regional scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1919–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1919-2018, 2018. a, b
Schaefli, B. and Gupta, H.: Do Nash values have value, Hydrol. Process., 21, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6825, 2007. a
Schmidt, K. M., Roering, J. J., Stock, J. D., Dietrich, W. E., Montgomery,
D. R., and Schaub, T.: The variability of root cohesion as an influence on
shallow landslide susceptibility in the Oregon Coast Range, Can.
Geotech. J., 38, 995–1024, https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-38-5-995, 2001. a
Schwarz, M., Preti, F., Giadrossich, F., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Quantifying
the role of vegetation in slope stability: A case study in Tuscany (Italy),
Ecol. Eng., 36, 285–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.06.014,
2010. a, b, c, d
Schwarz, M., Giadrossich, F., and Cohen, D.: Modeling root reinforcement using a root-failure Weibull survival function, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4367–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4367-2013, 2013. a
Schwarz, M., Rist, A., Cohen, D., Giadrossich, F., Egorov, P., Büttner,
D., Stolz, M., and Thormann, J. J.: Root reinforcement of soils under
compression, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 120,
2103–2120, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003632, 2015. a, b, c
Sidle, R. C.: A Theoretical Model of the Effects of Timber harvesting on Slope
Stability, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1897–1910, 1992. a
Swisstopo: SWISSIMAGE, Luftbilder Level 2 (25 cm) Wabern: Bern, 2014–2016, Bundesamt für Landestopografie swisstopo, Wabern, 2017. a
Torres, R., Dietrich, W. E., Montgomery, D. R., Anderson, S. P., and Loague,
K.: Unsaturated zone processes and the hydrologic response of a steep,
unchanneled catchment, Water Resour. Res., 34, 1865–1879,
https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01140, 1998. a
van Zadelhoff, F. B., Albaba, A., Cohen, D., Philips, C., Schaefli, B., Dorren, L., and Schwarz, M.: Introducing SlideforMAP; a probabilistic finite slope approach for modelling shallow landslide probability in forested situations, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6793533, 2022. a
Varnes, D. J.: Slope Movement Types and Processes, Special Report, 176,
11–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.11.001, 1978. a, b, c, d
Vergani, C., Schwarz, M., Cohen, D., Thormann, J., and Bischetti, G.: Effects
of root tensile force and diameter distribution variability on root
reinforcement in the Swiss and Italian Alps, Can. J. Forest
Res., 44, 1426–1440, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2014-0095, 2014. a, b
Weiler, M. and Naef, F.: An experimental tracer study of the role of
macropores in infiltration in grassland soils, Hydrol. Process., 17,
477–493, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1136, 2003. a
Welch, B. L.: The generalisation of student's problems when several different
population variances are involved, Biometrika, 34, 28–35,
https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/34.1-2.28, 1947. a
Wiekenkamp, I., Huisman, J. A., Bogena, H. R., Lin, H. S., and Vereecken, H.:
Spatial and temporal occurrence of preferential flow in a forested headwater
catchment, J. Hydrol., 534, 139–149,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.050, 2016. a
Wu, T., McKinnel, W. P., and Swanston, D. N.: Strength of tree roots and
landslides on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska, Can. Geotech. J., 16.1, 19–33, 1978. a
Xu, C., Xu, X., Dai, F., and Saraf, A. K.: Comparison of different models for
susceptibility mapping of earthquake triggered landslides related with the
2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China, Comput. Geosci., 46, 317–329,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.002, 2012. a
Zevenbergen, L. and Thorne, C.: Quantitative analysis of land surface
topography, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 12, 47–56, 1987. a
Zhang, S., Zhao, L., Delgado-Tellez, R., and Bao, H.: A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-969-2018, 2018.
a
Zhu, H., Zhang, L. M., Xiao, T., and Li, X. Y.: Enhancement of slope stability
by vegetation considering uncertainties in root distribution, Comput. Geotech., 85, 84–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.12.027, 2017. a
Short summary
Shallow landslides pose a risk to people, property and infrastructure. Assessment of this hazard and the impact of protective measures can reduce losses. We developed a model (SlideforMAP) that can assess the shallow-landslide risk on a regional scale for specific rainfall events. Trees are an effective and cheap protective measure on a regional scale. Our model can assess their hazard reduction down to the individual tree level.
Shallow landslides pose a risk to people, property and infrastructure. Assessment of this hazard...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint