Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32
04 Feb 2022
 | 04 Feb 2022
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS. A final paper is not foreseen.

Delimiting rockfall runout zones using reach probability values simulated with a Monte-Carlo based 3D trajectory model

Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos

Abstract. At present, a quantitative basis for delimiting realistic rockfall runout zones on the basis of trajectory simulation data is generally missing. The objective of this study is to come up with standardized reach probability threshold values (RPTV) to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated rockfall runouts. We therefore compared reach probability values (Preach) simulated with Rockyfor3D for 458 mapped, fresh rockfall blocks (silent witnesses SW) on 18 different sites with a volume >= 0.05 m3 and estimated occurrence frequencies up to 300 years. We analysed which block, slope and forest characteristics influenced Preach of the SW based on a linear mixed effects model. The results indicate that the limit of a realistic runout zone lies in the range where simulated Preach values are between > 1 % and approximately 3 %. We conclude that RPTV can be defined to values lying in the range from 1.2 % to 2.5 % depending on the defined block volume and the encountered cumulative basal area in a forested transit zone. Where possible, the defined RPTV should be compared and validated by field recordings of SW.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Luuk Dorren et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Luuk Dorren, 08 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Luuk Dorren, 05 Apr 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Luuk Dorren, 08 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Luuk Dorren, 05 Apr 2022

Luuk Dorren et al.

Luuk Dorren et al.

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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
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