Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 03 Aug 2022
| 03 Aug 2022
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Mariana C. A. Clare
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
Forecast department, ECMWF, Bonn, Germany
Tim W. B. Leijnse
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Robert T. McCall
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Colin J. Cotter
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
Matthew D. Piggott
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Maarten van Ormondt, Tim Leijnse, Roel de Goede, Kees Nederhoff, and Ap van Dongeren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1839, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate flood risk assessments are crucial for storm protection. To achieve efficiency, computational costs must be minimized. This paper introduces a novel subgrid approach for Linear Inertial Equations (LIE) with bed level and friction variations, implemented in the SFINCS model. Pre-processed lookup tables enhance simulation precision with lower costs. Validations show significant accuracy improvement, even at coarser resolutions.
Reuben W. Nixon-Hill, Daniel Shapero, Colin J. Cotter, and David A. Ham
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5369–5386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Scientists often use models to study complex processes, like the movement of ice sheets, and compare them to measurements for estimating quantities that are hard to measure. We highlight an approach that ensures accurate results from point data sources (e.g. height measurements) by evaluating the numerical solution at true point locations. This method improves accuracy, aids communication between scientists, and is well-suited for integration with specialised software that automates processes.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modelling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model, but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1789–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Jennifer R. Shadrick, Dylan H. Rood, Martin D. Hurst, Matthew D. Piggott, Klaus M. Wilcken, and Alexander J. Seal
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 429–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a coastal evolution model to interpret cosmogenic beryllium-10 concentrations and topographic data and, in turn, quantify long-term cliff retreat rates for four chalk sites on the south coast of England. By using a process-based model, clear distinctions between intertidal weathering rates have been recognised between chalk and sandstone rock coast sites, advocating the use of process-based models to interpret the long-term behaviour of rock coasts.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Jennifer R. Shadrick, Martin D. Hurst, Matthew D. Piggott, Bethany G. Hebditch, Alexander J. Seal, Klaus M. Wilcken, and Dylan H. Rood
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1505–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1505-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1505-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use topographic and 10Be concentration data to optimise a coastal evolution model. Cliff retreat rates are calculated for two UK sites for the past 8000 years and, for the first time, highlight a strong link between the rate of sea level rise and long-term cliff retreat rates. This method enables us to study past cliff response to sea level rise and so to greatly improve forecasts of future responses to accelerations in sea level rise that will result from climate change.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Ocean Sci., 17, 319–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental issues arising due to coastal modification and future sea level scenarios are a major environmental hazard facing the Maldives today. Here, we carry out high-resolution tidal modelling of a Maldivian atoll for the first time and show that coastal modification in the island scale is capable of driving large-scale change in the wider atoll basin in a short time, comparable to that of long-term sea level rise scenarios and on par with observations.
Thomas H. Gibson, Lawrence Mitchell, David A. Ham, and Colin J. Cotter
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 735–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-735-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-735-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Galerkin finite element discretizations for atmospheric modeling often require the solution of ill-conditioned, saddle point equations which can be efficiently solved using a hybridized method. By extending Firedrake's domain-specific abstraction, we provide a mechanism for the rapid implementation of hybridization methods for a wide class of methods. In this paper, we show that hybridization is an effective alternative to traditional block solvers for simulating geophysical flows.
Dirk Diederen, Ye Liu, Ben Gouldby, Ferdinand Diermanse, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1041–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Floods affect many communities and cause a large amount of damage worldwide.
Since we choose to live in natural flood plains and are unable to prevent all floods, a system of insurance and reinsurance was set up.
For these institutes to not fail, estimates are required of the frequency of large-scale flood events.
We explore a new method to obtain a large catalogue of synthetic, spatially coherent, large-scale river discharge events, using a recent (gridded) European discharge data set.
Tuomas Kärnä, Stephan C. Kramer, Lawrence Mitchell, David A. Ham, Matthew D. Piggott, and António M. Baptista
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4359–4382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4359-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Unstructured meshes are attractive for coastal ocean modeling, as they allow more accurate representation of complex coastal topography. Unstructured mesh models are, however, often perceived as slow and inaccurate. We present a novel discontinuous Galerkin ocean model: Thetis. We demonstrate that the model is able to simulate baroclinic ocean flows with high accuracy on a triangular prismatic mesh. This work paves the way for highly accurate and efficient three-dimensional coastal ocean models.
Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Marjolein J. P. Mens, Hector Macian-Sorribes, and Femke Schasfoort
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-45, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Egidius Johanna Cassianus Dupuits, Ferdinand Lennaert Machiel Diermanse, and Matthijs Kok
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1893-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Flood defences, such as levees, emergency storage basins or storm surge barriers, can be designed as multiple lines of defence. If each line of defence has a number of possible levels, the total number of possible system configurations can be large. This paper presents an approach that is able to find an optimal configuration including future adaptations of such a flood defence system, based on an economic cost–benefit analysis.
Samuel D. Parkinson, Simon W. Funke, Jon Hill, Matthew D. Piggott, and Peter A. Allison
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1051–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1051-2017, 2017
C. T. Jacobs and M. D. Piggott
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-533-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-533-2015, 2015
K. M. de Bruijn, F. L. M. Diermanse, and J. V. L. Beckers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. The new Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis method enables this. It is applied on societal flood fatality risks in the Rhine-Meuse deltas in the Netherlands.
A. S. Candy, A. Avdis, J. Hill, G. J. Gorman, and M. D. Piggott
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-5993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-5993-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
S. D. Parkinson, J. Hill, M. D. Piggott, and P. A. Allison
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1945-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1945-2014, 2014
J. Thuburn, C. J. Cotter, and T. Dubos
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 909–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-909-2014, 2014
J. Hill, E. E. Popova, D. A. Ham, M. D. Piggott, and M. Srokosz
Ocean Sci., 10, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-323-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-323-2014, 2014
M. E. Rognes, D. A. Ham, C. J. Cotter, and A. T. T. McRae
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2099–2119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2099-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2099-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 meta-process model
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Volcano Tsunamis and their effects on moored vessels safety: The 2022 Tonga event
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunami: An integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound extreme water levels in a river mouth environment
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
An integrated tsunami inundation and risk analysis at the Makran Coast, Pakistan
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland
The effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers records
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modelling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model, but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-663, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10,000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. A study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel moorings safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing TWS and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Emmie M. Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew J. L. Harris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-221, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently at Stromboli, for a locally generated tsunami, only 4 minutes of warning are available. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis, and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by Civil Protection agencies on Stromboli Island.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Jean Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-198, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a catalogue of tsunamis having occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from the 5 coastal tide gauges. 100 tsunamis of local, regional or far-field origins are listed since 1863. 15 of them show maximum wave amplitude and/or run-up height of above 1 m and 8 between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-176, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties; and we investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad city (Sweden). Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-148, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea has yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Cited articles
Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe,
R., and Kwadijk, J.: Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due
to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale, Sci. Rep., 10,
1–14, 2020. a
Caflisch, R. E.: Monte carlo and quasi-monte carlo methods, Acta Numer., 7,
1–49, 1998. a
Chakraborty, S.: Transfer learning based multi-fidelity physics informed deep
neural network, J. Comput. Phys., 426, 109942, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2020.109942, 2021. a
Clare, M. C. A.: MLMF coastal, GitHub, https://github.com/mc4117/MLMF_coastal, last access: 28 July 2022a. a
Clare, M. C. A.: mc4117/MLMF_coastal: MLMF python wrapper (v1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6929316, 2022b. a
de Beer, A., McCall, R., Long, J., Tissier, M., and Reniers, A.: Simulating
wave runup on an intermediate–reflective beach using a wave-resolving and a
wave-averaged version of XBeach, Coast. Eng., 163, 103788, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103788, 2020. a
Dodwell, T. J., Ketelsen, C., Scheichl, R., and Teckentrup, A. L.: Multilevel
Markov chain Monte Carlo, Siam Rev., 61, 509–545, 2019. a
Fleeter, C. M., Geraci, G., Schiavazzi, D. E., Kahn, A. M., and Marsden, A. L.:
Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular
hemodynamics, Comput. Method Appl. M., 365,
113030, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2020.113030, 2020. a
Geraci, G., Eldred, M. S., and Iaccarino, G.: A multifidelity multilevel Monte
Carlo method for uncertainty propagation in aerospace applications, in: 19th
AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, Grapevine, Texas, https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2017-1951, 2017. a, b, c
Gregory, A. and Cotter, C. J.: On the calibration of multilevel Monte Carlo
ensemble forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
143, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3052, 2017. a, b, c, d
Hasselmann, K., Barnett, T. P., Bouws, E., Carlson, H., Cartwright, D. E., Enke, K., Ewing, J. A., Gienapp, A., Hasselmann, D. E., Kruseman, P., and Meerburg, A.: Measurements
of wind-wave growth and swell decay during the Joint North Sea Wave Project
(JONSWAP), Ergänzungsheft, Reihe A, 8–12, 1973. a
Kalyanapu, A., Judi, D., McPherson, T., and Burian, S.: Monte Carlo-based flood
modelling framework for estimating probability weighted flood risk, J. Flood Risk Manag., 5, 37–48, 2012. a
Larson, M. and Kraus, N. C.: SBEACH: numerical model for simulating
storm-induced beach change. Report 1. Empirical foundation and model
development, Tech. rep., Coastal Engineering research center Vicksburg Ms,
1989. a
Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Nederhoff, K., and van Dongeren, A.: Modeling
compound flooding in coastal systems using a computationally efficient
reduced-physics solver: Including fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind- and
wave-driven processes, Coast. Eng., 163,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103796, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
McCall, R. T., De Vries, J. V. T., Plant, N., Van Dongeren, A., Roelvink, J.,
Thompson, D., and Reniers, A.: Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane
overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island, Coast. Eng., 57,
668–683, 2010. a
Peherstorfer, B., Willcox, K., and Gunzburger, M.: Survey of multifidelity
methods in uncertainty propagation, inference, and optimization, Siam Rev.,
60, 550–591, 2018. a
Pisaroni, M., Nobile, F., and Leyland, P.: Continuation multilevel monte carlo
evolutionary algorithm for robust aerodynamic shape design, J.
Aircraft, 56, 771–786, 2019. a
Riesenkamp, M.: Probabilistic modelling of extreme beach erosion using XBeach,
Ph.D. thesis, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands,
http://repository.tudelft.nl/. (last access: 28 July 2022), 2011. a
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., Van Dongeren, A., De Vries, J. V. T., McCall, R.,
and Lescinski, J.: Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier
islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152, 2009. a
Roelvink, D., McCall, R., Mehvar, S., Nederhoff, K., and Dastgheib, A.:
Improving predictions of swash dynamics in XBeach: The role of groupiness
and incident-band runup, Coast. Eng., 134, 103–123,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.07.004, 2018. a, b, c
Unguendoli, S.: Propagation of uncertainty across modeling chains to evaluate
hydraulic vulnerability in coastal areas, Ph.D. thesis, Università di
Bologna, Bologna, Italy,
http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/8599/1/Unguendoli_Silvia_Tesi.pdf (last access: 28 July 2022),
2018. a
Vikhar, P. A.: Evolutionary algorithms: A critical review and its future
prospects, in: 2016 International conference on global trends in signal
processing, information computing and communication (ICGTSPICC), 261–265, IEEE, Indian Academy Degree College Autonomous, Bangalore, 2016. a
Wang, C., Zhang, H., Feng, K., and Li, Q.: Assessing hurricane damage costs in
the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty, Nat. Hazards, 85,
1621–1635, 2017. a
Warren, I. and Bach, H.: MIKE 21: a modelling system for estuaries, coastal
waters and seas, Environ. Softw., 7, 229–240, 1992. a
Xiong, M., Chen, L., and Ming, J.: Quantify uncertainty by estimating the
probability density function of the output of interest using MLMC based Bayes
method, Discret. Contin. Dyn.-B, https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2022095, 2022. a
Zijlema, M., Stelling, G., and Smit, P.: SWASH: An operational public domain
code for simulating wave fields and rapidly varied flows in coastal waters,
Coast. Eng., 58, 992–1012, 2011. a
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint