Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767–2781, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014

Special issue: Flood ris​k analysis and integ​rated management

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767–2781, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014

Research article 14 Oct 2014

Research article | 14 Oct 2014

An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands

K. M. de Bruijn1, F. L. M. Diermanse2, and J. V. L. Beckers2 K. M. de Bruijn et al.
  • 1Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
  • 2Inland Water Systems, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract. This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine–Meuse delta.

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This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. The new Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis method enables this. It is applied on societal flood fatality risks in the Rhine-Meuse deltas in the Netherlands.
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