NHESS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences NHESS Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 1684-9981 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014 An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands de Bruijn K. M. 1 Diermanse F. L. M. 2 Beckers J. V. L. 2 Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands Inland Water Systems, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands 14 10 2014 14 10 2767 2781 Copyright: © 2014 K. M. de Bruijn et al. 2014 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/2767/2014/nhess-14-2767-2014.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/2767/2014/nhess-14-2767-2014.pdf

This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine–Meuse delta.

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