Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
Ivo Fustos-Toribio
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, University of La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Nataly Manque-Roa
Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Adolfo Ibáñez University, Santiago, Chile
Daniel Vásquez Antipan
Department of Civil Engineering, University of La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Master of Engineering Sciences Program, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, University of La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor
Department of Civil Engineering, University of La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Department of Civil Engineering, University of La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
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We investigated methods to improve the prediction of landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in southern Chile, utilising local soil and climate data. We tested different models and selected the most critical environmental factors. We improved the process for making forecasts in areas with limited monitoring. Our results help create faster and more reliable warnings and can guide safety planning in other mountain regions facing similar risks.
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
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We investigated methods to improve the prediction of landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in southern Chile, utilising local soil and climate data. We tested different models and selected the most critical environmental factors. We improved the process for making forecasts in areas with limited monitoring. Our results help create faster and more reliable warnings and can guide safety planning in other mountain regions facing similar risks.
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We investigated how volcanic soils and heavy rainfall trigger dangerous debris flows in the southern Andes. Our findings show saturated volcanic-soils above less permeable glacial deposits create ideal conditions for slope failures. Monitoring soil moisture and surface changes helps predict these events. This knowledge aids in protecting communities from debris flow hazards, increasingly important under climate change.
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
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Short summary
We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of...
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