Multi-risk assessment in the Andes region
Multi-risk assessment in the Andes region
Editor(s): Elisabeth Schoepfer, Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Hannes Taubenböck, and Bruce D. Malamud
In the past decades, the risk to society due to natural hazards has increased around the globe. The Andes region is particularly exposed to natural hazards like earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding, landslides, volcanic activity, forest fires, and others. To mitigate these threats, effective risk management is indispensable, for which reliable and up-to-date information is essential. The complex relationships between multiple and consecutive natural hazards, the exposed population, a dynamic vulnerability, and critical infrastructures lead to cascading effects which are often not considered. Furthermore, the assessment, quantification, and propagation of intrinsic and epistemic uncertainty are mostly not considered. This can lead to inadequate or even misleading risk management strategies, thus hindering efficient prevention and mitigation measures, and ultimately undermining the resilience of societies.

The special issue aims at making a significant contribution to single-hazard and multi-hazard risk assessment, including exposure and dynamic vulnerability, and progressing towards the analysis of cascading effects. Specific topics of this special issue include, but are not limited to,

  • new methods and techniques for (multi-)hazard scenarios, exposure, and vulnerability modelling;
  • new methods and techniques for impact assessment, cascading effects, and loss estimation;
  • design, development, and implementation of tools for the analysis of multi-risks;
  • analysis and development towards practical applications for stakeholders and decision makers.
The special issue asks for contributions that address countries of the Andes region. Submissions for all manuscript types such as research articles, review articles, and brief communications are welcome.

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24 May 2024
Insights into the development of a landslide early warning system prototype in an informal settlement: the case of Bello Oriente in Medellín, Colombia
Christian Werthmann, Marta Sapena, Marlene Kühnl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia, Tamara Breuninger, Moritz Gamperl, Bettina Menschik, Heike Schäfer, Sebastian Schröck, Lisa Seiler, Kurosch Thuro, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1843–1870,,, 2024
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14 May 2024
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656,,, 2024
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02 May 2024
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537,,, 2024
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30 Apr 2024
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500,,, 2024
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28 Mar 2024
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064,,, 2024
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24 Dec 2023
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930,,, 2023
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07 Nov 2023
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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02 Nov 2023
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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20 Jun 2023
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228,,, 2023
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24 May 2023
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890,,, 2023
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28 Jun 2022
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183,,, 2022
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