Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 May 2022
Research article |
| 23 May 2022
| 23 May 2022
Integration of observed and model-derived groundwater levels in landslide threshold models in Rwanda
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, School of Agricultural Engineering, College of Agriculture, Animal Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 210, Musanze, Rwanda
Markus Hrachowitz
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Thom Bogaard
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
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Arthur Depicker, Gerard Govers, Liesbet Jacobs, Benjamin Campforts, Judith Uwihirwe, and Olivier Dewitte
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 445–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, 2021
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Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
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Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
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Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
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Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
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Rolf Hut, Thanda Thatoe Nwe Win, and Thom Bogaard
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Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, 2020
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César Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
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Hongkai Gao, Christian Birkel, Markus Hrachowitz, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Chris Soulsby, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 787–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, 2019
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Laurène Bouaziz, Albrecht Weerts, Jaap Schellekens, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6415–6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, 2018
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César~Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The measurement of stable isotopes in water vapor has been improved with the use of laser technologies. Its direct application in the field depends on the availability of infrastructure or the budget of the project. For those cases when it is not possible, we provide an alternative method to sample the air for its later measurement. This method is based on the use of a low-cost polyethylene bag, getting stable measurements with a volume of 450 mL of air reducing the risk of sample deterioration.
Petra Hulsman, Thom A. Bogaard, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5081–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, 2018
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In many river basins, the development of hydrological models is challenged by poor discharge data availability and quality. In contrast, water level data are more reliable, as these are direct measurements and are unprocessed. In this study, an alternative calibration method is presented using water-level time series and the Strickler–Manning formula instead of discharge. This is applied to a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the semi-arid, poorly gauged Mara River basin in Kenya.
Karin Mostbauer, Roland Kaitna, David Prenner, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3493–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, 2018
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Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to predict. We applied a hydrological model to link not only precipitation, but also snowmelt, antecedent soil moisture, etc. with debris flow initiation in an Alpine watershed in Austria. Our results highlight the value of this more holistic perspective for developing a better understanding of debris flow initiation.
David J. Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Roberto Greco, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, 2018
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We investigate the influence of imprecise identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds by perturbing an error-free synthetic dataset. Combined impacts of uncertainty with respect to temporal discretization of data and criteria for singling out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources.
Thom Bogaard and Roberto Greco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018
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The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment.
Markus Hrachowitz and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017
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Catchments as meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling
Hubert H. G. Savenije and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017
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The natural environment that we live in is the result of evolution. This does not only apply to ecosystems, but also to the physical environment through which the water flows. This has resulted in the formation of flow patterns that obey sometimes surprisingly simple mathematical laws. Hydrological models should represent the physics of these patterns and should account for the fact that the ecosystem adjusts itself continuously to changing circumstances. Physics-based models are alive!
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
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The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
Marie K. M. Charrière and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1175–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, 2016
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This paper present the results of interviews that were conducted with the developers of apps dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The study investigates the context of their development to determine how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. Results show that consensus is achieved in terms of message but not in terms of visualization. However, progress remains in terms of effectiveness evaluation.
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
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The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
W. Shao, T. A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2197–2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, 2015
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The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix/preferential flow domain.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
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We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
O. Fovet, L. Ruiz, M. Hrachowitz, M. Faucheux, and C. Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015
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We studied the annual hysteretic patterns observed between stream flow and water storage in the saturated and unsaturated zones of a hillslope and a riparian zone. We described these signatures using a hysteresis index and then used this to assess conceptual hydrological models. This led us to identify four hydrological periods and a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters and to provide new information about the model performances.
S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
V. J. Cortes Arevalo, M. Charrière, G. Bossi, S. Frigerio, L. Schenato, T. Bogaard, C. Bianchizza, A. Pasuto, and S. Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2681–2698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014, 2014
H. Gao, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Gharari, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1895–1915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, 2014
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, T.-H. Debieche, F. Cervi, V. Marc, and J.-P. Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 181–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2171–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, 2013
T. Euser, H. C. Winsemius, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Uhlenbrook, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, J.-P. Malet, and L. P. H. van Beek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 947–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent
How volcanic stratigraphy constrains headscarp collapse scenarios: the Samperre cliff case study (Martinique island, Lesser Antilles)
Landslide susceptibility assessment in the rocky coast subsystem of Essaouira, Morocco
Landsifier v1.0: a Python library to estimate likely triggers of mapped landslides
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
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In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
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With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
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Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
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We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Landslides are complex phenomena, causing important impacts in vulnerable areas and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
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A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
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Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
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Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
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The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1931, 2023
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Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 hours) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step towards an operational postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
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Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
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Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
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We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
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A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
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This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
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In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
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The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
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Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
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This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
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Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
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The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
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We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
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Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
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A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
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This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
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In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
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On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
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We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
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In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
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Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
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The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
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The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Cited articles
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Corominas, J., Moya, J., Ledesma, A., Lloret, A., and Gili, J. A.: Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain), Landslides, 2, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0049-1, 2005.
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Fathani, T. F., Karnawati, D., and Wilopo, W.: An integrated methodology to develop a standard for landslide early warning systems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2123–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2123-2016, 2016.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98, 239–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7, 2007.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: An update, Landslides, 5, 3–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1, 2008.
Hong, M., Kim, J., and Jeong, S.: Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall, Landslides, 15, 523–534, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0892-x, 2017.
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Ma, T., Li, C., Lu, Z., and Bao, Q.: Rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Zhejiang Province, China, Geomorphology, 245, 193–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.016, 2015.
Marino, P., Peres, D. J., Cancelliere, A., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T. A.: Soil moisture information can improve shallow landslide forecasting using the hydrometeorological threshold approach, Landslides, 17, 2041–2054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01420-8, 2020.
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Mirus, B., Morphew, M., and Smith, J.: Developing Hydro-Meteorological Thresholds for Shallow Landslide Initiation and Early Warning, Water-Sui, 10, 1274, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091274, 2018a.
Mirus, B. B., Becker, R. E., Baum, R. L., and Smith, J. B.: Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning, Landslides, 15, 1909–1919, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-0995-z, 2018b.
Monsieurs, E., Liesbet, J., Michellier, C., Tchangabo, B. J., Ganza, B. G., Bibentyo, M. T., Kervyn, M., Mateso, M. J.-C., Nkurunziza, P., Ndayisenga, A., Buzera, K. C., Nahimana, L., Wim, T., Demoulin, A., Kervyn, M., and Dewitte, O.: Landslide inventory for hazard assessment in a data–poor context: a regional-scale approach in a tropical African environment, Landslides, 15, 2195–2209, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1008-y, 2018.
Monsieurs, E., Dewitte, O., and Demoulin, A.: A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, 2019a.
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Peres, D. J., Cancelliere, A., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T. A.: Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide...
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