Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
Costanza Bonadonna
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Ali Asgary
Disaster and Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada
Franco Romerio
Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva,
Geneva, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Tais Zulemyan
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Corine Frischknecht
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Chiara Cristiani
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy
Mauro Rosi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Chris E. Gregg
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson
City, Tennessee, USA
Sebastien Biass
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Marco Pistolesi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Scira Menoni
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Architettura e Pianificazione, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
Antonio Ricciardi
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy
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María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
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Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
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We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
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There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Frances Beckett, Eduardo Rossi, Benjamin Devenish, Claire Witham, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As volcanic ash is transported through the atmosphere, it may collide and stick together to form aggregates. Neglecting the process of aggregation in atmospheric dispersion models could lead to inaccurate forecasts used by civil aviation for hazard assessment. We developed an aggregation scheme for use with the model NAME, which is used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Using our scheme, we investigate the impact of aggregation on simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud.
Eduardo Rossi and Costanza Bonadonna
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4379–4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
SCARLET-1.0 is a MATLAB package that creates virtual aggregates starting from a population of irregular shapes. Shapes are described in terms of the Standard Triangulation Language (STL) format, and this allows importing a great variety of shapes, such as from 3D scanning. The package produces a new STL file as an output and different analytical information about the packing, such as the porosity. It has been specifically designed for use in volcanology and scientific education.
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Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can...
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