Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
20 Dec 2021
Research article | 20 Dec 2021
Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy)
Gaia Mattei et al.
No articles found.
Elisa Adirosi, Federico Porcù, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Alessandro Bracci, Vincenzo Capozzi, Clizia Annella, Giorgio Budillon, Edoardo Bucchignani, Alessandra Lucia Zollo, Orietta Cazzuli, Giulio Camisani, Renzo Bechini, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Antonini, Alberto Ortolani, Samantha Melani, Paolo Valisa, and Simone Scapin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.,
Preprint under review for ESSDShort summary
The paper describes the database of 1-minute Drop Size Distribution (DSD) of atmospheric precipitation collected by the italian disdrometer network over the last 10 years. These data are useful for several applications that range from climatological, meteorological, and hydrological uses to telecommunications, agriculture, and conservation of cultural heritage exposed to precipitation. Descriptions of the processing and of the database organization, along with some examples, are provided.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Carmela De Vivo, and Giorgio Budillon
The Cryosphere, 16, 1741–1763,Short summary
This work documents the snowfall variability observed from late XIX century to recent years in Montevergine (southern Italy) and discusses its relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main results lie in the absence of a trend until mid-1970s, in the strong reduction of the snowfall quantity and frequency from mid-1970s to 1990s and in the increase of both variables from early 2000s. In the past 50 years, the nivometric regime has been strongly modulated by AO and NAO indices.
Paolo Boncio, Eugenio Auciello, Vincenzo Amato, Pietro Aucelli, Paola Petrosino, Anna C. Tangari, and Brian R. Jicha
Solid Earth, 13, 553–582,Short summary
We studied the Gioia Sannitica normal fault (GF) within the southern Matese fault system (SMF) in southern Apennines (Italy). It is a fault with a long slip history that has experienced recent reactivation or acceleration. Present activity has resulted in late Quaternary fault scarps and Holocene surface faulting. The maximum slip rate is ~ 0.5 mm/yr. Activation of the 11.5 km GF or the entire 30 km SMF can produce up to M 6.2 or M 6.8 earthquakes, respectively.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Yuri Cotroneo, Pasquale Castagno, Carmela De Vivo, and Giorgio Budillon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1467–1487,Short summary
This work describes the entire rescue process, from digitization to quality control, of a new historical dataset that includes sub-daily meteorological observations collected in Montevergine (southern Italy) since the late 19th century. These data enhance and supplement sub-daily datasets currently available in Mediterranean regions. Moreover, they offer a unique opportunity to investigate meteorological and climatological features of the mountainous environment prior to the 1950s.
Yuri Cotroneo, Giuseppe Aulicino, Simon Ruiz, Antonio Sánchez Román, Marc Torner Tomàs, Ananda Pascual, Giannetta Fusco, Emma Heslop, Joaquín Tintoré, and Giorgio Budillon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 147–161,Short summary
We present data collected from the first three glider surveys in the Algerian Basin conducted during the ABACUS project. After collection, data passed a quality control procedure and were then made available through an unrestricted repository. The main objective of our project is monitoring the basin circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Temperature and salinity data collected in the first 975 m of the water column allowed us to identify the main water masses and describe their characteristics.
Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Budillon, Luigi Mucerino, Raffaele Montella, and Eugenio Pugliese Carratelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2841–2857,Short summary
Forecasting and hindcasting the action of sea storms on piers, coastal structures and beaches is important to mitigate their effects. To this end, with particular regard to low coasts and beaches, we have configured a computational model chain based partly on open-access models and partly on an ad-hoc-developed numerical calculator to evaluate beach wave run-up levels. The results were validated by a set of specially conceived video-camera-based experiments on a micro-tidal beach.
Guido Benassai, Pietro Aucelli, Giorgio Budillon, Massimo De Stefano, Diana Di Luccio, Gianluigi Di Paola, Raffaele Montella, Luigi Mucerino, Mario Sica, and Micla Pennetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1493–1503,Short summary
The study of the shallow coastal area of the Sele mouth in the Gulf of Salerno (southern Italy) identified the features of nearshore circulation, which often produced rip currents. The occurrence of a rip current cell circulation in restricted ranges of heights, periods and incident directions was related to the non-dimensional fall velocity parameter, which proved to be an efficient index for rip current formation.
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Vincenzo Capozzi, Giorgio Budillon, and Rossella Ferretti
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 271–278,Short summary
This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. Nine simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators. The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) compared to 3D-Var.
Vincenzo Capozzi and Giorgio Budillon
Adv. Geosci., 44, 35–51,Short summary
The extreme temperature events, the heat and cold waves, besides to have a significant impact on human health and activities, have negative influences also on mountain ecosystems. This work provides a characterization of heat and cold waves variability and trends in high-elevation sites of Central Mediterranean area, by using the long-term temperature time series collected in Montevergine. Main results highlight a positive trend in heat waves frequency and severity in the last 40 years.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Errico Picciotti, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Giorgio Budillon, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
This work explores the potentialities in urban hailstorms detection of X-band miniradar measurements. The results show that the latter are suitable for early monitoring of hail events at urban scale, especially when combined with conventional meteorological data. The experimental hail detection product developed in this study, although trained for a specific urban environment (i.e. Naples urban area), can be easily adapted to other areas where detailed meteorological information is needed.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal HazardsMulti-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of TurkeyImportance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level riseWind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coastPartitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal floodingIdentification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast AsiaModelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvementModelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructureHistorical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami eventMultilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal floodingReconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coastDeveloping a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, ItalyStorm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approachCompound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of ShanghaiDetecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using of autoassociative Neural NetworkGenerating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracksThe role of heat wave events in the occurrence and persistence of thermal stratification in the southern North SeaTsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrustReal-time coastal flood hazard assessment using DEM-based hydrogeomorphic classifiersSimulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden SL1 landslide (Southwestern of the Svalbard Islands)Rapid tsunami force prediction by mode-decomposition-based surrogate modelingHazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricanes Gamma and Delta, on the northern Yucatan peninsulaCharacteristics of two tsunamis generated by successive Mw 7.4 and Mw 8.1 earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands on 4 March 2021Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural NetworksMesoscale simulation of typhoon-generated storm surge: methodology and Shanghai case studySubmarine landslide source modeling using the 3D slope stability analysis method for the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi, tsunamiCharacteristics and beach safety knowledge of beachgoers on unpatrolled surf beaches in AustraliaRobust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systemsA coupled modelling system to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate changeCorrelation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of FinlandThe role of morphodynamics in predicting coastal flooding from storms on a dissipative beach with sea level rise conditionsMultilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanismTime-dependent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Western Sumatra, Indonesia, Using Space-Time Earthquake Rupture Modelling and Stochastic Source ScenariosStatistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean SeaDevelopment of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulationsInvestigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South AfricaStill normal? Near-real-time evaluation of storm surge events in the context of climate changeThe influence of infragravity waves on the safety of coastal defences: a case study of the Dutch Wadden SeaAssessment of potential beach erosion risk and impact of coastal zone development: a case study on Bongpo–Cheonjin BeachProbabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulationTowards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surgesReview article: Extreme marine events revealed by lagoonal sedimentary records in Ghar El Melh during the last 2500 years in the northeast of TunisiaExploring the partial use of the Mo.S.E. system as effective adaptation to rising flood frequency of VeniceVariable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, PeruThe Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modelingTidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid regionDistribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coastsA global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)Occurrence of pressure-forced meteotsunami events in the eastern Yellow Sea during 2010–2019Characteristics of joint heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2020Tsunami heights and limits in 1945 along the Makran coast estimated from testimony gathered 7 decades later in Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736,Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677,Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433,Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182,Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104,Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878,Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609,Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530,Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515,Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432,Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400,Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379,Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358,Short summary
A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Kathrin Wahle, B. Emil Vassilev Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as strom surge and atmospheric forcing alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modelled in present-day ocean forecasting, still there is a need for better understanding situations where modelled and observed water levels deviate from eachother. Here we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea level observations in the North Sea.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891,Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698,Short summary
This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682,Short summary
The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435,Short summary
The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The landslide multilayer HySEA numerical model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden SL1 landslide provide new insights in factors like sliding mechanism and the bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values, shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study will be useful to provide new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285,Short summary
This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The effects of storms on ocean currents, waves, beach, and groundwater level were measured for a barrier island. Significant changes on coastal currents and water levels were observed. Seagrass wrack was found to protect the beach during storms. Flooding originated from the wetlands due to heavy rainfall. Computational simulations predicted that major hazards occurred near the wetlands, however they were not able to reproduce the measured data, highlighting the need of detailed wind information.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082,Short summary
Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945,Short summary
Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907,Short summary
The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Lea Uebelhoer, William Koon, Mitchell D. Harley, Jasmin C. Lawes, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 909–926,Short summary
Beachgoers at unpatrolled Australian beaches were surveyed to gain an understanding of their demographics, beach safety knowledge, and behaviour. Most visited unpatrolled beaches out of convenience and because they wanted to visit a quiet location. Despite being infrequent beachgoers, with poor swimming and hazard identification skills, most intended to enter the water. Authorities should go beyond the
swim between the flagssafety message, as people will always swim at unpatrolled beaches.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868,Short summary
The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829,Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jairo E. Cueto, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino-Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 713–728,Short summary
We investigate the importance of morphodynamics on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions on a microtidal beach. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies. The results indicate that numerical modeling of flooding should be approached by considering morphodynamics; ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~ 15 %. Moreover, beach erosion and flooding are intensified by sea level rise and high tides in ~ 69 % and ~ 65 %, respectively.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William L. Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637,Short summary
Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models.
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESSShort summary
This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 431–444,Short summary
Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360,Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 187–205,Short summary
In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge, and waves. Effects of waves are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth and caused earlier flooding than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116,Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22,Short summary
Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Changbin Lim, Tae Kon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3842,Short summary
This study aimed to quantitatively assess erosion risk. Methods for assessing each potential were proposed, and the corresponding erosion risk was calculated by introducing a combined potential erosion risk curve presenting the erosion consequence. In addition the method for verifying the risk was examined for the east coast of South Korea. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature and plays a key role in identifying methods that prevent erosion.
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807,Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712,Short summary
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3645–3661,Short summary
The Tunisian coast has been historically affected by extreme marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment cores and surface sediments) retrieved from this coastal area of Tunisia, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 2500 years.
Riccardo A. Mel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3629–3644,Short summary
The present study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Venice lagoon if a partial use of the Mo.S.E. system (i.e. by closing the Lido inlet only) will be adopted. A linear relationship is obtained between the seaward tidal amplitude and the reduction of the sea level peak at Venice, Burano, and Chioggia. Tidal period and wind have been accounted for. Two-thirds of the flood events can be effectively mitigated by such an operation under relative sea level rise scenarios up to +0.4 m.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628,Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3489–3508,Short summary
This study deals with the 5 December 2018 tsunami in New Caledonia and Vanuatu (southwestern Pacific) triggered by a Mw 7.5 earthquake that occurred southeast of Maré, Loyalty Islands, and was widely felt in the region. Numerical modeling results of the tsunami using a non-uniform and a uniform slip model compared to real tide gauge records and observations are globally well correlated for the uniform slip model, especially in far-field locations.
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Leonlene S. Aguiar, Caio C. Lima, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3353–3366,Short summary
The approach of this work is a tidal flood risk mapping methodology for climate change scenarios in a semi-arid region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides in recent years. High-geodetic-precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios, were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351,Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Joey O'Dell, Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Humans build levees to move flood water to a safer place so that a specific area does not flood as often. We can use simulations to predict flooding and rises in sea level, but without a global list of levee locations, these are less accurate. We have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. However we cannot find information on every levee that exists. We hope that our global database for levees can be extended in the future.
Myung-Seok Kim, Seung-Buhm Woo, Hyunmin Eom, and Sung Hyup You
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3323–3337,Short summary
We present spatial and temporal trends of meteotsunami occurrence in the eastern Yellow Sea over the past decade (2010–2019). Also, the improved meteotsunami monitoring/warning system was proposed based on occurrence characteristics of an air pressure disturbance and meteotsunami on the classified meteotsunami events. The guidance regarding the operation period, potential hot spot, and risk level of the meteotsunamis will be helpful to monitoring/warning system operators.
Mika Rantanen, Kirsti Jylhä, Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, and Ulpu Leijala
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
Using sea level and precipitation observations, we analysed the meteorological characteristics of days when heavy precipitation and high sea level occur simultaneously in Finland. We found that around 5 % of all heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast are so called compound events when they both occur simultaneously, and these events were associated with close passages of mid-latitude cyclones. Our results act as a basis for compound flooding research in Finland.
Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3085–3096,Short summary
The study summarizes historical accounts, eyewitness accounts and newspaper items to report the impact of the 1945 tsunami along the Makran coast of Pakistan. A field survey conducted in Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara quantifies inundation parameters in the three cities, using the landmarks reported in eyewitness accounts and newspaper items. The quantification of runup and inundation extents is based either on the field survey or on old maps.
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This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited coastal area of the Gulf of Naples, along the Italian coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage to urban furniture and port infrastructures.
This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited...