Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2021
| 26 Nov 2021
Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469,
Germany
Nils Brinckmann
eScience Centre, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473,
Potsdam, Germany
Sven Harig
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany
Raquel Zafrir
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Head Aerospace Group, Paris, 92250, France
Massimiliano Pittore
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC Research, 39100, Bolzano,
Italy
Fabrice Cotton
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469,
Germany
Andrey Babeyko
Geodynamic Modelling, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences,
Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Related authors
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Alice Crespi, Elena Maines, Stefano Terzi, and Massimiliano Pittore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1347, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied a severe compound drought and heatwave event in the Adige River basin in May 2022 and found that similar events are now hotter and drier due to current warming. These changes worsen water stress and river drying. We show that timing matters: events in June are now more critical than in April, as the snowmelt contribution to streamflow in June has become much lower than in the past. However, many climate models still fail to capture these changes.
Gabriella Tocchi, Massimiliano Pittore, and Maria Polese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-908, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies different types of urban areas in Italy based on population, location, and economic conditions to understand their vulnerability to risks. Using public data and clustering methods, it defines 18 urban archetypes. These archetypes provide a structured understanding of urban vulnerability, helping policymakers assess disaster risk, allocate adaptation funding, and design targeted resilience strategies for urban settlements at regional and national scales.
Jess Delves, Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Jesica Piñón, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Maria Belen Benito Oterino, Eduardo Perez, and Massimiliano Pittore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3445, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This scientific paper presents a multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. The study identifies key risk hotspots with estimated economic losses of 92 million USD (2.5 % of GDP). Climate change projections indicate increased precipitation. The paper highlights data limitations and stresses the need for improved hazard models and the consideration of compounding risks in future assessments.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3755–3787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Ivan Kuznetsov, Benjamin Rabe, Alexey Androsov, Ying-Chih Fang, Mario Hoppmann, Alejandra Quintanilla-Zurita, Sven Harig, Sandra Tippenhauer, Kirstin Schulz, Volker Mohrholz, Ilker Fer, Vera Fofonova, and Markus Janout
Ocean Sci., 20, 759–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research introduces a tool for dynamically mapping the Arctic Ocean using data from the MOSAiC experiment. Incorporating extensive data into a model clarifies the ocean's structure and movement. Our findings on temperature, salinity, and currents reveal how water layers mix and identify areas of intense water movement. This enhances understanding of Arctic Ocean dynamics and supports climate impact studies. Our work is vital for comprehending this key region in global climate science.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Dino Bindi, Riccardo Zaccarelli, Angelo Strollo, Domenico Di Giacomo, Andres Heinloo, Peter Evans, Fabrice Cotton, and Frederik Tilmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1733–1745, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The size of an earthquake is often described by a single number called the magnitude. Among the possible magnitude scales, the seismic moment (Mw) and the radiated energy (Me) scales are based on physical parameters describing the rupture process. Since these two magnitude scales provide complementary information that can be used for seismic hazard assessment and for seismic risk mitigation, we complement the Mw catalog disseminated by the GEOFON Data Centre with Me values.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Audrey Bonnelye, Pierre Dick, Marco Bohnhoff, Fabrice Cotton, Rüdiger Giese, Jan Henninges, Damien Jougnot, Grzegorz Kwiatek, and Stefan Lüth
Adv. Geosci., 58, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The overall objective of the CHENILLE project is to performed an in-situ experiment in the Underground Reaserch Laboratory of Tournemire (Southern France) consisting of hydraulic and thermal stimulation of a fault zone. This experiment is monitored with extensive geophysical means (passive seismic, active seismic, distributed fiber optics for temperature measurements) in order to unravel the physical processes taking place during the stimulation for a better charactization of fault zones.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Ivan Kuznetsov, Alexey Androsov, Vera Fofonova, Sergey Danilov, Natalja Rakowsky, Sven Harig, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-103, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal regions play a significant role in global processes. Numerical models are one of the major instruments in understanding ocean dynamics. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate the representativeness of the simulations with the new FESOM-C model by comparing the results with observational data for the southeastern part of the North Sea. An equally important objective is to present the application of convergence analysis of solutions for grids of different spatial resolutions.
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
Alexey Androsov, Vera Fofonova, Ivan Kuznetsov, Sergey Danilov, Natalja Rakowsky, Sven Harig, Holger Brix, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1009–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a description of a coastal ocean circulation model designed to work on variable-resolution meshes made of triangular and quadrilateral cells. This hybrid mesh functionality allows for higher numerical performance and less dissipative solutions.
Andreas Hoechner, Andrey Y. Babeyko, and Natalia Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1339–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1339-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1339-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Makran subduction zone is not very active seismically, but nevertheless capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami, such as the Balochistan event in 1945, which led to about 4000 casualties. Some recent studies suggest that the maximum magnitude might be higher than previously thought. We generate a set of synthetic earthquake catalogs to compute tsunami hazard along the coast of Iran, Pakistan and Makran and show how different seismicity assumptions affect the hazard.
S. Tyagunov, M. Pittore, M. Wieland, S. Parolai, D. Bindi, K. Fleming, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1625-2014, 2014
N. Rakowsky, A. Androsov, A. Fuchs, S. Harig, A. Immerz, S. Danilov, W. Hiller, and J. Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1629–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, 2013
A. Hoechner, M. Ge, A. Y. Babeyko, and S. V. Sobolev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1285–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1285-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Physics-based forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1655–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths at different coastal sites. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, which is essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces two new, simple, physics-based hazard forecast models of rip current and shore-break waves, which are the two primary natural hazards beachgoers expose themselves to in the surf zone. These models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, accurately predict rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives to forecast multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Cited articles
Adriano, B., Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Estrada, M., and Jimenez, C.: Scenarios
of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using
Tsunami Fragility Functions, J. Disaster Res., 9, 968–975,
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0968, 2014.
Aguilar, Z., Lazares, F., Alarcon, S., Quispe, S., Uriarte, R., and
Calderon, D.: Actualización de la Microzonificación Sísmica de
la ciudad de Lima, International Symposium for CISMID 25th Anniversary
17–18 August, 2012, Lima, Peru, 2013.
Aguilar, Z., Tarazona, J., Vergaray, L., Barrantes, J., Uriarte, R., and
Calderon, D.: Site response analysis and its comparison with the peruvian
seismic design spectrum, TECNIA, 29, 91–97,
https://doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v29i2.700, 2019.
Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Martínez Sánchez, J., Aniel-Quiroga, Í., González-Riancho, P., Merino, M., Al-Yahyai, S., González, M., and Medina, R.: From tsunami risk assessment to disaster risk reduction – the case of Oman, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2241–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2241-2018, 2018.
Alam, M. S., Barbosa, A. R., Scott, M. H., Cox, D. T., and van de Lindt, J.
W.: Development of Physics-Based Tsunami Fragility Functions Considering
Structural Member Failures, J. Struct. Eng., 144, 04017221,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001953, 2018.
Allen, T. I. and Wald, D. J.: Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic
Site-Conditions (Vs30) and Amplification Around the Globe, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1357, 69 pp., Geological Survey, USA,
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071357, 2007.
Antoncecchi, I., Ciccone, F., Dialuce, G., Grandi, S., Terlizzeze, F., Di
Bucci, D., Dolce, M., Argnani, A., Mercorella, A., Pellegrini, C., Rovere,
M., Armigliato, A., Pagnoni, G., Paparo, M. A., Tinti, S., Zaniboni, F.,
Basili, R., Cavallaro, D., Coltelli, M., Firetto Carlino, M., Lipparini, L.,
Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Romano, F., Scarfì, L., Tiberti, M. M.,
Volpe, M., Fedorik, J., Toscani, G., Borzi, B., Faravelli, M., Bozzoni, F.,
Pascale, V., Quaroni, D., Germagnoli, F., Belliazzi, S., Del Zoppo, M., Di
Ludovico, M., Lignola, G. P., and Prota, A.: Progetto SPOT – Sismicità
Potenzialmente Innescabile Offshore e Tsunami: Report integrato di fine
progetto, 1. Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3732887, 2020.
Attary, N., van de Lindt, J. W., Unnikrishnan, V. U., Barbosa, A. R., and
Cox, D. T.: Methodology for Development of Physics-Based Tsunami
Fragilities, J. Struct. Eng., 143, 04016223,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001715, 2017.
Bal, I. E., Bommer, J. J., Stafford, P. J., Crowley, H., and Pinho, R.: The
Influence of Geographical Resolution of Urban Exposure Data in an Earthquake
Loss Model for Istanbul, Earthq. Spectra, 26, 619–634,
https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3459127, 2010.
Bazzurro, P. and Luco, N.: Accounting for uncertainty and correlation in
earthquake loss estimation, in: Proceedings of the nineth international
conference on safety and reliability of engineering systems and structures,
ICOSSAR, Rome, Italy, 2005.
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018.
Bozzoni, F., Bonì, R., Conca, D., Lai, C. G., Zuccolo, E., and Meisina,
C.: Megazonation of earthquake-induced soil liquefaction hazard in continental Europe, Bull Earthquake Eng., 19, 4059–4082, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-01008-6, 2021a.
Bozzoni, F., Bonì, R., Conca, D., Meisina, C., Lai, C. G., and Zuccolo,
E.: A Geospatial Approach for Mapping the Earthquake-Induced Liquefaction
Risk at the European Scale, Geosciences, 11, 32,
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11010032, 2021b.
Brinckmann, N., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., and Rüster, M.: DEUS:
Damage-Exposure-Update-Service. V. 1.0., GFZ Data Serv. [code],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.011, 2021.
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., and Deierlein, G.: Probabilistic Model for
Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation due to Building Damage Following
an Earthquake, ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertain. Eng. Syst. Part Civ. Eng., 4,
04018023, https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000972, 2018a.
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., and Deierlein, G.: Regional Multiseverity
Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake
Scenario in Lima, Peru, Earthq. Spectra, 34, 1739–1761,
https://doi.org/10.1193/080617EQS154M, 2018b.
Charvet, I., Suppasri, A., Kimura, H., Sugawara, D., and Imamura, F.: A
multivariate generalized linear tsunami fragility model for Kesennuma City
based on maximum flow depths, velocities and debris impact, with evaluation
of predictive accuracy, Nat. Hazards, 79, 2073–2099,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1947-8, 2015.
Charvet, I., Macabuag, J., and Rossetto, T.: Estimating Tsunami-Induced
Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research
Needs, Front. Built Environ., 3, 36,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00036, 2017.
Chen, K., McAneney, J., Blong, R., Leigh, R., Hunter, L., and Magill, C.:
Defining area at risk and its effect in catastrophe loss estimation: a
dasymetric mapping approach, Appl. Geogr., 24, 97–117,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2004.03.005, 2004.
Chen, Y., Park, H., Chen, Y., Corcoran, P., Cox, D., Reimer, J. J., and
Weber, B.: Integrated Engineering-Economic Model for the Assessment of
Regional Economic Vulnerability to Tsunamis, Nat. Hazards Rev., 19,
04018018, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000307, 2018.
CIESIN: Documentation for the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), Revision 11 Data Sets, NASA Socioeconomic Data And Applications Center (SEDAC) Palisades, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.7927/H45Q4T5F, 2018.
Cox, D. R. and Isham, V.: Point processes, Chapman and Hall, London, New
York, 1980.
Crowley, H., Bommer, J. J., Pinho, R., and Bird, J.: The impact of epistemic
uncertainty on an earthquake loss model, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 34,
1653–1685, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.498, 2005.
Dabbeek, J. and Silva, V.: Modeling the residential building stock in the
Middle East for multi-hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 100, 781–810,
2019.
Dabbeek, J., Silva, V., Galasso, C., and Smith, A.: Probabilistic earthquake
and flood loss assessment in the Middle East, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct.,
49, 101662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101662, 2020.
Daniell, J. E., Schaefer, A. M., and Wenzel, F.: Losses Associated with
Secondary Effects in Earthquakes, Front. Built Environ., 3, 30,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00030, 2017.
De Risi, R., Goda, K., Yasuda, T., and Mori, N.: Is flow velocity important
in tsunami empirical fragility modeling?, Earth-Sci. Rev., 166, 64–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.12.015, 2017.
de Ruiter, M. C., de Bruijn, J. A., Englhardt, J., Daniell, J. E., de Moel,
H., and Ward, P. J.: The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction
Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes, Earths Future, 9, e2020EF001531,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001531, 2021.
Dilley, M.: Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis, World Bank, Washington,
D.C., 2005.
Dorbath, L., Cisternas, A., and Dorbath, C.: Assessment of the size of large
and great historical earthquakes in Peru, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 80,
551–576, 1990.
Douglas, J.: Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 283–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007, 2007.
Dunand, F. and Gueguen, P.: Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France) test site, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 511–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-511-2012, 2012.
Erdik, M. and Fahjan, Y.: Damage scenarios and damage evaluation, Assess.
Manag. Earthq. Risk. Neth. Springer, 2006, 213–237, 2008.
Esposito, S. and Iervolino, I.: Spatial Correlation of Spectral Acceleration
in European Data, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 2781–2788, 2012.
Fäh, D., Kind, F., Lang, K., and Giardini, D.: Earthquake scenarios for
the city of Basel, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 21, 405–413,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0267-7261(01)00023-9, 2001.
FEMA: Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology, Federal Emergency
Management Agency, Washington, 2003.
Figueiredo, R. and Martina, M.: Using open building data in the development of exposure data sets for catastrophe risk modelling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 417–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-417-2016, 2016.
Figueiredo, R., Schröter, K., Weiss-Motz, A., Martina, M. L. V., and Kreibich, H.: Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018.
Frolova, N. I., Larionov, V. I., Bonnin, J., Sushchev, S. P., Ugarov, A. N.,
and Kozlov, M. A.: Seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels,
Nat. Hazards, 88, 43–62, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2654-9, 2017.
Geller, R. J.: Chapter 22 – Geoethics, Risk-Communication, and Scientific
Issues in Earthquake Science, in: Geoethics, edited by: Wyss, M. and
Peppoloni, S., Elsevier, Oxford, 263–272,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-799935-7.00022-8, 2015.
GEM: Report on the SARA Exposure and Vulnerability Workshop in Medellin,
Colombia, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy, 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions
of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445, 2014.
Goda, K. and De Risi, R.: Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and
tsunami using stochastic rupture sources, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 28,
539–554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.002, 2018.
Goda, K. and Song, J.: Uncertainty modeling and visualization for tsunami
hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Stoch.
Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 30, 2271–2285,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1146-x, 2016.
Goda, K., Mai, P. M., Yasuda, T., and Mori, N.: Sensitivity of tsunami wave
profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry
for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 66, 105,
https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-105, 2014.
Goda, K., Yasuda, T., Mori, N., and Mai, P. M.: Variability of tsunami
inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single
rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 4552–4575, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010626, 2015.
Goda, K., Rossetto, T., Mori, N., and Tesfamariam, S.: Editorial: Mega
Quakes: Cascading Earthquake Hazards and Compounding Risks, Front. Built
Environ., 4, 8, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2018.00008, 2018.
Goda, K., Yasuda, T., Mori, N., Muhammad, A., De Risi, R., and De Luca, F.: Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020.
Goda, K., Risi, R. D., Luca, F. D., Muhammad, A., Yasuda, T., and Mori, N.:
Multi-hazard earthquake-tsunami loss estimation of Kuroshio Town, Kochi
Prefecture, Japan considering the Nankai-Tonankai megathrust rupture
scenarios, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 54, 102050,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102050, 2021.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Pittore, M., and Cotton, F.: Seismic
ground motion fields for six deterministic earthquake scenarios (Mw 8.5–9.0)
for Lima (Peru), GFZ Data Serv. [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.008,
2021a.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Pittore, M., and Cotton, F.: Spatial
representation of direct loss estimates on the residential building stock of
Lima (Peru) from decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenarios on variable
resolutions exposure models., GFZ Data Serv. [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.009, 2021b.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Cotton, F., Lilienkamp, H., Simantini, S.,
Aguirre, P., and Hernan, S. M.: Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic
building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models,
Bull. Earthq. Eng., Preprint, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-178120/v1,
2021c.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Shinde, S., Pittore, M., and Merino-Peña, Y.:
Scripts to generate (1) attribute-based fuzzy scores for SARA and HAZUS
building classes, and (2) probabilistic inter-scheme compatibility matrices.
An application on the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) for
seismic risk applications, GFZ Data Serv.,
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.002, 2021d.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Brinckmann, N., and Pittore, M.:
Residential building exposure and physical vulnerability models for
ground-shaking and tsunami risk in Lima and Callao (Peru). V. 1.0, GFZ Data
Serv. [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.007, 2021e.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Harig, S., and Pittore, M.: Customised
focus maps and resultant CVT-based aggregation entities for Lima and Callao
(Peru). V. 1.0, GFZ Data Serv. [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.006,
2021f.
Harig, S. and Rakowsky, N.: Tsunami flow depth in Lima/Callao (Peru) caused
by six hypothetical simplified tsunami scenarios offshore Lima, GFZ Data
Serv. [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.010, 2021.
Harig, S., Chaeroni, Pranowo, W. S., and Behrens, J.: Tsunami simulations on
several scales, Ocean Dyn., 58, 429–440,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-008-0162-5, 2008.
Harig, S., Immerz, A., Weniza, Griffin, J., Weber, B., Babeyko, A.,
Rakowsky, N., Hartanto, D., Nurokhim, A., Handayani, T., and Weber, R.: The
Tsunami Scenario Database of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System
(InaTEWS): Evolution of the Coverage and the Involved Modeling Approaches,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 1379–1401,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02305-1, 2020.
INEI: Censos Nacionales 2017, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e
Informatica (INEI; Institute of Statistic and Informatics), Lima, Peru,
2017.
Jimenez, C., Moggiano, N., Mas, E., Adriano, B., Koshimura, S., Fujii, Y.,
and Yanagisawa, and H.: Seismic Source of 1746 Callao Earthquake from
Tsunami Numerical Modeling, J. Disaster Res., 8, 266–273,
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2013.p0266, 2013.
Kaiser, G., Scheele, L., Kortenhaus, A., Løvholt, F., Römer, H., and Leschka, S.: The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2521–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2521-2011, 2011.
Kajiura, K.: The directivity of energy radiation of the tsunami generated in
the vicinity of a continental shelf, J. Oceanogr., 28, 260–277,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02109296, 1972.
Kalakonas, P., Silva, V., Mouyiannou, A., and Rao, A.: Exploring the impact
of epistemic uncertainty on a regional probabilistic seismic risk assessment
model, Nat. Hazards, 104, 997–1020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04201-7, 2020.
Kappos, A. J., Panagopoulos, G., and Penelis, G. G.: Development of a
seismic damage and loss scenario for contemporary and historical buildings
in Thessaloniki, Greece, Spec. Issue Urban Earthq. Hazard Damage Assess.,
28, 836–850, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2007.10.017, 2008.
Kohrangi, M., Bazzurro, P., and Vamvatsikos, D.: Seismic risk and loss
estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II – hazard analysis and
risk assessment, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 19, 1739–1763,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-01037-1, 2021.
Koshimura, S., Oie, T., Yanagisawa, H., and Imamura, F.: Developing
Fragility Functions for Tsunami Damage Estimation Using Numerical Model and
Post-Tsunami Data from Banda Aceh, Indonesia, Coast. Eng. J., 51, 243–273,
https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563409002004, 2009.
Krieger, G., Moreira, A., Fiedler, H., Hajnsek, I., Werner, M., Younis, M., and Zink, M.: TanDEM-X: ASatellite Formation for High-Resolution SAR Interferometry, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 45, 3317–3341, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2007.900693, 2007.
Kulikov, E. A., Rabinovich, A. B., and Thomson, R. E.: Estimation of Tsunami
Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile, Nat. Hazards, 35, 185–209,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4809-3, 2005.
Lloyd, S.: Least squares quantization in PCM, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 28,
129–137, https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1982.1056489, 1982.
Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Horspool, N., Smebye, H.,
Bono, A. de, and Nadim, F.: Global tsunami hazard and exposure due to large
co-seismic slip, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 10, 406–418,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.003, 2014.
Lovon, H., Tarque, N., Silva, V., and Yepes-Estrada, C.: Development of
Fragility Curves for Confined Masonry Buildings in Lima, Peru, Earthq.
Spectra, 34, 1339–1361, https://doi.org/10.1193/090517EQS174M, 2018.
Lynett, P.: Precise Prediction of Coastal and Overland Flow Dynamics: A
Grand Challenge or a Fool's Errand, J. Disaster Res., 11, 615–623, 2016.
Macabuag, J., Rossetto, T., Ioannou, I., Suppasri, A., Sugawara, D.,
Adriano, B., Imamura, F., Eames, I., and Koshimura, S.: A proposed
methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using
optimum intensity measures, Nat. Hazards, 84, 1257–1285,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2485-8, 2016.
Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., and Baker, J. W.: Effect of ground motion
correlation on regional seismic lossestimation: application to Lima, Peru
using across-correlated principal component analysis model, Safety,
Reliability, Risk, Resilience and Sustainability of Structures and
Infrastructure. 12th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety and Reliability,
Vienna, Austria, 2017.
Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., and Baker, J. W.: Modeling spatially correlated
spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component
analysis and geostatistics, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 47, 1107–1123,
https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3007, 2018.
Martins, L. and Silva, V.: Development of a fragility and vulnerability
model for global seismic risk analyses, Bull. Earthq. Eng.,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00885-1, 2020.
Mas, E., Adriano, B., Pulido, N., Jimenez, C., and Koshimura, S.: Simulation
of Tsunami Inundation in Central Peru from Future Megathrust Earthquake
Scenarios, J. Disaster Res., 9, 961–967,
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0961, 2014.
Matsuoka, M., Miura, H., Midorikawa, S., and Estrada, M.: Extraction of
Urban Information for Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Lima, Peru Using
Satellite Imagery, J. Disaster Res., 8, 328–345, 2013.
Medina, S., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Estrada, M., Koshimura, S., Mas, E., and
Adriano, B.: Tsunami analytical fragility curves for the Colombian Pacific
coast: A reinforced concrete building example, Eng. Struct., 196, 109309,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.109309, 2019.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N.,
Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F.,
Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K.,
Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support
Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Miyashita, T., Mori, N., and Goda, K.: Uncertainty of probabilistic tsunami
hazard assessment of Zihuatanejo (Mexico) due to the representation of
tsunami variability, Coast. Eng. J., 62, 413–428,
https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2020.1780676, 2020.
Montalva, G. A., Bastías, N., and Rodriguez-Marek, A.: Ground-Motion
Prediction Equation for the Chilean Subduction Zone, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am., 107, 901–911, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160221, 2017.
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P.
J.: A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat.
Commun., 7, 11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016.
Negulescu, C., Benaïchouche, A., Lemoine, A., Le Roy, S., and Pedreros,
R.: Adjustability of exposed elements by updating their capacity for
resistance after a damaging event: application to an earthquake–tsunami
cascade scenario, Nat. Hazards, 104, 753–793,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04189-0, 2020.
Omira, R., Baptista, M. A., Matias, L., Miranda, J. M., Catita, C., Carrilho, F., and Toto, E.: Design of a Sea-level Tsunami Detection Network for the Gulf of Cadiz, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1327–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1327-2009, 2009.
Ordaz, M., Salgado-Gálvez Mario Andrés, Huerta Benjamín,
Rodríguez Juan Carlos, and Avelar Carlos: Considering the impacts of
simultaneous perils: The challenges of integrating earthquake and
tsunamigenic risk, Disaster Prev. Manag. Int. J., 28, 823–837,
https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-09-2019-0295, 2019.
Paez-Ramirez, J., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Medina, S., Estrada, M., Mas, E.,
and Koshimura, S.: A comparative study of empirical and analytical fragility
functions for the assessment of tsunami building damage in Tumaco, Colombia,
Coast. Eng. J., 62, 362–372, https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2020.1726558,
2020.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V.,
Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and
Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the
Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Pang, A.: Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, in: Risk Assessment,
Modeling and Decision Support: Strategic Directions, edited by: Bostrom, A.,
French, S., and Gottlieb, S., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin,
Heidelberg, 261–294,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71158-2_12, 2008.
Papathoma, M. and Dominey-Howes, D.: Tsunami vulnerability assessment and its implications for coastal hazard analysis and disaster management planning, Gulf of Corinth, Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 733–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-733-2003, 2003.
Park, H., Cox, D. T., and Barbosa, A. R.: Comparison of inundation depth and
momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment
and uncertainty analysis, Coast. Eng., 122, 10–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.01.008, 2017.
Park, H., Alam, M. S., Cox, D. T., Barbosa, A. R., and van de Lindt, J. W.:
Probabilistic seismic and tsunami damage analysis (PSTDA) of the Cascadia
Subduction Zone applied to Seaside, Oregon, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct.,
35, 101076, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101076, 2019.
Petersen, M. D., Harmsen, S. C., Jaiswal, K. S., Rukstales, K. S., Luco, N.,
Haller, K. M., Mueller, C. S., and Shumway, A. M.: Seismic Hazard, Risk, and
Design for South America, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 108, 781–800,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170002, 2018.
Petrone, C., Rossetto, T., Baiguera, M., la Barra Bustamante, C. D., and
Ioannou, I.: Fragility functions for a reinforced concrete structure
subjected to earthquake and tsunami in sequence, Eng. Struct., 205, 110120,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.110120, 2020.
Pittore, M.: A means of prioritizing data collection for efficient Geo-risk
assessment, Ann. Geophys., 58, 1, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6692, 2015.
Pittore, M., Haas, M., and Megalooikonomous, K. G.: Risk Oriented Bottom-up Modelling of
building portfolios with faceted taxonomies, Front. Built Environ., 4, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2018.00041, 2018.
Pittore, M., Haas, M., and Silva, V.: Variable resolution probabilistic
modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications,
Earthq. Spectra, 36, 321–344, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020951582,
2020.
PREDES: Diseño de escenario sobre el impacto de un sismo de gran
magnitud en Lima Metropolitana y Callao”, Reporte preparado para Instituto
Nacional de Defensa Civil – INDECI, Agencia Suiza para el Desarrollo y la
Cooperación COSUDE, 2009.
Pulido, N., Aguilar, Z., Tavera, H., Chlieh, M., Calderón, D.,
Sekiguchi, T., Nakai, S., and Yamazaki, F.: Scenario Source Models and
Strong Ground Motion for Future Mega-earthquakes: Application to Lima,
Central Peru, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 368–386, 2015.
Ricca, F., Scozzari, A., and Simeone, B.: Weighted Voronoi region algorithms
for political districting, Math. Comput. Model., 48, 1468–1477,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2008.05.041, 2008.
Ricca, F., Scozzari, A., and Simeone, B.: Political Districting: from
classical models to recent approaches, Ann. Oper. Res., 204, 271–299,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-012-1267-2, 2013.
Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Ordaz, M., Singh, SK., Cardona, OD., Reinoso, E.,
Aguado, A., Zuloaga, D., Huerta, B., and Bernal, G.: Homogeneous and
continous probabilistic seismic hazard model for Latin America and the
Caribbean, 16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Thessaloniki,
Greece, 1–12, 2018.
Scheingraber, C. and Käser, M. A.: The Impact of Portfolio Location
Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis, Risk Anal., 39,
695–712, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13176, 2019.
Scheingraber, C. and Käser, M.: Spatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, 2020.
Schelske, O., Sundermann, L., and Hausmann, P.: Mind the risk – A global
ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland, 2014.
Scherbaum, F., Bommer, J. J., Bungum, H., Cotton, F., and Abrahamson, N. A.:
Composite Ground-Motion Models and Logic Trees: Methodology, Sensitivities,
and Uncertainties, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 1575–1593,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120040229, 2005.
Schiappapietra, E. and Douglas, J.: Modelling the spatial correlation of
earthquake ground motion: Insights from the literature, data from the
2016–2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence and ground-motion simulations,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 203, 103139,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103139, 2020.
Senouci, A., Bard, P.-Y., Beck, E., Farsi, M. N., and Cartier, S.: Mapping
seismic vulnerability at urban scale: Discussion on relevant cartography
representations and smoothing for urban planning purposes on the Oran case
study, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 115, 545–563,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.08.034, 2018.
Silva, V.: Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling, J. Earthq.
Eng., 20, 1322–1341, https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2016.1138172, 2016.
Smith Mason, J., Retchless, D., and Klippel, A.: Domains of uncertainty
visualization research: a visual summary approach, Cartogr. Geogr. Inf.
Sci., 44, 296–309, https://doi.org/10.1080/15230406.2016.1154804, 2017.
Song, J. and Goda, K.: Influence of Elevation Data Resolution on Tsunami
Loss Estimation and Insurance Rate-Making, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 246,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00246, 2019.
Song, J., De Risi, R., and Goda, K.: Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami
Loss Estimation, Geosciences, 7, 114, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences7040114,
2017.
Stafford, P. J.: Evaluation of structural performance in the immediate
aftermath of an earthquake: a case study of the 2011 Christchurch
earthquake, Int. J. Forensic Eng., 1, 58–77,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFE.2012.047447, 2012.
Suppasri, A., Mas, E., Charvet, I., Gunasekera, R., Imai, K., Fukutani, Y.,
Abe, Y., and Imamura, F.: Building damage characteristics based on surveyed
data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, Nat.
Hazards, 66, 319–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0487-8, 2013.
Suppasri, A., Pakoksung, K., Charvet, I., Chua, C. T., Takahashi, N., Ornthammarath, T., Latcharote, P., Leelawat, N., and Imamura, F.: Load-resistance analysis: an alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1807–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019, 2019.
Tang, L., Titov, V. V., and Chamberlin, C. D.: Development, testing, and
applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time
forecasting, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C12025,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005476, 2009.
Tappin, D. R., Grilli, S. T., Harris, J. C., Geller, R. J., Masterlark, T.,
Kirby, J. T., Shi, F., Ma, G., Thingbaijam, K. K. S., and Mai, P. M.: Did a
submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?, Mar. Geol., 357,
344–361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2014.09.043, 2014.
Triantafyllou, I., Novikova, T., Charalampakis, M., Fokaefs, A., and
Papadopoulos, G. A.: Quantitative Tsunami Risk Assessment in Terms of
Building Replacement Cost Based on Tsunami Modelling and GIS Methods: The
Case of Crete Isl., Hellenic Arc, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 3207–3225,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1984-9, 2019.
Vamvatsikos, D., Panagopoulos, G., Kappos, A. J., Nigro, E., Rossetto, T.,
Lloyd, T. O., and Stathopoulos, T.: Structural Vulnerability Assessment
under Natural Hazards: A review, in: Urban Habitat Constructions under
Catastrophic Events, edited by: Mazzolani, F. M., CRC Press, Naples, Italy, 2010.
Viard, T., Caumon, G., and Lévy, B.: Adjacent versus coincident
representations of geospatial uncertainty: Which promote better decisions?,
Comput. Geosci., 37, 511–520, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2010.08.004,
2011.
Villar-Vega, M., Silva, V., Crowley, H., Yepes, C., Tarque, N., Acevedo, A.
B., Hube, M. A., Gustavo, C. D., and María, H. S.: Development of a
Fragility Model for the Residential Building Stock in South America, Earthq.
Spectra, 33, 581–604, https://doi.org/10.1193/010716EQS005M, 2017.
Villegas-Lanza, J. C., Chlieh, M., Cavalié, O., Tavera, H., Baby, P.,
Chire-Chira, J., and Nocquet, J.-M.: Active tectonics of Peru: Heterogeneous
interseismic coupling along the Nazca megathrust, rigid motion of the
Peruvian Sliver, and Subandean shortening accommodation, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 121, 7371–7394, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013080, 2016.
Weatherill, G. A., Silva, V., Crowley, H., and Bazzurro, P.: Exploring the
impact of spatial correlations and uncertainties for portfolio analysis in
probabilistic seismic loss estimation, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 13, 957–981,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9730-5, 2015.
Wronna, M., Omira, R., and Baptista, M. A.: Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2557–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2557-2015, 2015.
Yepes-Estrada, C., Silva, V., Valcárcel, J., Acevedo, A. B., Tarque, N.,
Hube, M. A., Coronel, G., and María, H. S.: Modeling the Residential
Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment, Earthq.
Spectra, 33, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.1193/101915eqs155dp, 2017.
Yilmaz, C., Silva, V., and Weatherill, G.: Probabilistic framework for
regional loss assessment due to earthquake-induced liquefaction including
epistemic uncertainty, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 141, 106493,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106493, 2021.
Zarzycki, C. M. and Jablonowski, C.: A multidecadal simulation of Atlantic
tropical cyclones using a variable-resolution global atmospheric general
circulation model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 805–828,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000352, 2014.
Zuccaro, G., De Gregorio, D., and Leone, M. F.: Theoretical model for
cascading effects analyses, Underst. Mitigating Cascading Crises Glob.
Interconnected Syst., 30, 199–215,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.019, 2018.
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint