Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 May 2021
Research article |
| 28 May 2021
| 28 May 2021
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Andrea Bevilacqua
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze,
Firenze, Italy
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Clermont-Ferrand, France
Augusto Neri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Eduardo Gutiérrez
Dirección del Observatorio Ambiental, MARN, San Salvador, El Salvador
deceased
Demetrio Escobar
Dirección del Observatorio Ambiental, MARN, San Salvador, El Salvador
Melida Schliz
Instituto de Geología y Geofísica, UNAN, Managua, Nicaragua
Alessandro Aiuppa
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di
Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Raffaello Cioni
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze,
Firenze, Italy
Related authors
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, Giovanni Biagioli, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
Solid Earth, 12, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we test a simplified numerical model for pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (mixtures of hot gas, lapilli and ash moving across the landscape under the effect of gravity). The aim is quantifying the differences between real and modelled deposits of some PDCs of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, Italy. This step is important because in the paper it is demonstrated that this simplified model is useful for constraining input parameters for more computationally expensive models.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of
multi-model solvers.
Virginie Marécal, Ronan Voisin-Plessis, Tjarda Jane Roberts, Alessandro Aiuppa, Herizo Narivelo, Paul David Hamer, Béatrice Josse, Jonathan Guth, Luke Surl, and Lisa Grellier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2873–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a halogen volcanic chemistry scheme in a one-dimensional modelling framework preparing for further use in a three-dimensional global chemistry-transport model. The results of the simulations for an eruption of Mt Etna in 2008, including various sensitivity tests, show a good consistency with previous modelling studies.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, Giovanni Biagioli, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
Solid Earth, 12, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we test a simplified numerical model for pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (mixtures of hot gas, lapilli and ash moving across the landscape under the effect of gravity). The aim is quantifying the differences between real and modelled deposits of some PDCs of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, Italy. This step is important because in the paper it is demonstrated that this simplified model is useful for constraining input parameters for more computationally expensive models.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of
multi-model solvers.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Pierre Tulet, Andréa Di Muro, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Valentin Duflot, Santiago Arellano, Brice Foucart, Jérome Brioude, Karine Sellegri, Aline Peltier, Alessandro Aiuppa, Christelle Barthe, Chatrapatty Bhugwant, Soline Bielli, Patrice Boissier, Guillaume Boudoire, Thierry Bourrianne, Christophe Brunet, Fréderic Burnet, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Franck Gabarrot, Bo Galle, Gaetano Giudice, Christian Guadagno, Fréderic Jeamblu, Philippe Kowalski, Jimmy Leclair de Bellevue, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékies, Jean-Marc Metzger, Joris Pianezze, Thierry Portafaix, Jean Sciare, Arnaud Tournigand, and Nicolas Villeneuve
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5355–5378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The STRAP campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements were conducted at the local (near the vent) and regional scales around the island. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical parameterisations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
M. de' Michieli Vitturi, A. Neri, and S. Barsotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2447–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2447-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper a new mathematical model of volcanic plume, named Plume-MoM, is presented. The model is based on the method of moments and it is able to describe the continuous variability in the grain size distribution (GSD) of the pyroclastic mixture ejected at the vent, crucial to characterize the source conditions of ash dispersal models. Results show that the GSD at the top of the plume is similar to that at the base and that plume height is weakly affected by the parameters of the GSD.
L. Surl, D. Donohoue, A. Aiuppa, N. Bobrowski, and R. von Glasow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2613–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2613-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2613-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric chemistry that occurs in the plume of Mt. Etna shortly after emission.
We measured O3 destruction in the plume. Using simultaneous measurements of SO2 and wind speed, we approximate the rate of this destruction. BrO, expected to be an indicator of ozone-destructive chemistry, is also detected.
A computer model is able to approximately reproduce these results and is used to make inferences about the chemistry occurring that cannot be directly observed.
M. Pedone, A. Aiuppa, G. Giudice, F. Grassa, V. Francofonte, B. Bergsson, and E. Ilyinskaya
Solid Earth, 5, 1209–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-1209-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-1209-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present the results of tunable diode laser observations at four quiescent volcanoes: Nea Kameni, Hekla, Krýsuvík, and Vulcano Island, which display a range of fumarolic activity from weak to moderate. This study contributes to better characterising the typical levels of CO2 emission from such feeble volcanic point sources, suggesting that the cumulative contribution from weakly degassing volcanoes may be significant at global scale.
M. T. Melis, F. Mundula, F. DessÌ, R. Cioni, and A. Funedda
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 481–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-481-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-481-2014, 2014
L. Grellier, V. Marécal, B. Josse, P. D. Hamer, T. J. Roberts, A. Aiuppa, and M. Pirre
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-2581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-2581-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
S. Carcano, L. Bonaventura, T. Esposti Ongaro, and A. Neri
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1905–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1905-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1905-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014
Chronology and impact of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile
PM10 measurements in urban settlements after lava fountain episodes at Mt. Etna, Italy: pilot test to assess volcanic ash hazard to human health
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-6, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people . The earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
D. Andronico and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on the potential health risks caused by the sub-10 micron fraction of volcanic ash (PM10) following explosive eruptions of Mt. Etna (Italy). We present the results of a study on the ash concentration in the air of urbanized areas after the 15 November 2011 lava fountain and the related tephra fallout, causing high levels of PM10 in the air. We conclude by hoping that due attention will be given to the impact of ash fallout on the Etnean territory in the future.
Cited articles
Ai, M., Kong, X., and Li, K.: A general theory for orthogonal array based
latin hypercube sampling, Statist. Sin., 26, 761–777, https://doi.org/10.5705/ss.202015.0029, 2016.
Alberico, I., Lirer, L., Petrosino, P., and Scandone, R.: A methodology for
the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi
Flegrei (Italy), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 116, 63–78, 2002.
Andronico, D., Branca, S., Calvari, S., Burton, M., Caltabiano, T., Corsaro,
R., Del Carlo, P., Garfì, G., Lodato, L., and Miraglia, L.: A multi-disciplinary study of the 2002–03 Etna eruption: insights into a
complex plumbing system, Bull. Volcanol., 67, 314–330, 2005.
Ang, P., Bebbington, M., Lindsay, J., and Jenkins, S.: From eruption
scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the
Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 397, 106871, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106871, 2020.
Aravena, A.: Branching Kinetic Models (ECMapProb and BoxMapProb) (Version 1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3755086, 2020.
Aravena, A., Cioni, R., Bevilacqua, A., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., and Neri, A.: Tree-branching based enhancement of kinetic energy models for reproducing channelization processes of pyroclastic density
currents, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 125, e2019JB019271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB019271, 2020a.
Aravena, A., Cioni, R., Coppola, D., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Neri, A.,
Pistolesi, M., and Ripepe, M.: Effusion rate evolution during small-volume
basaltic eruptions: Insights from numerical modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 125, e2019JB019301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB019301, 2020b.
Avellán, D., Macías, J., Pardo, N., Scolamacchia, T., and Rodriguez,
D.: Stratigraphy, geomorphology, geochemistry and hazard implications of the
Nejapa Volcanic Field, western Managua, Nicaragua, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 213, 51–71, 2012.
Avellán, D., Macías, J., Sosa-Ceballos, G., and Velásquez, G.:
Stratigraphy, chemistry, and eruptive dynamics of the 12.4 ka plinian
eruption of Apoyeque volcano, Managua, Nicaragua, Bull. Volcanol., 76, 792, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-013-0792-4, 2014.
Barckhausen, U., Ranero, C., von Huene, R., Cande, S., and Roeser, H.: Revised tectonic boundaries in the Cocos Plate off Costa Rica: Implications
for the segmentation of the convergent margin and for plate tectonic models, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 106, 19207–19220, 2001.
Bayarri, M., Berger, J., Calder, E., Patra, A., Pitman, E., Spiller, E., and
Wolpert, R.: Probabilistic quantification of hazards: a methodology using
small ensembles of physics-based simulations and statistical surrogates,
Int. J. Uncertain. Quantificat., 5, 297–325, https://doi.org/10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2015011451, 2015.
Bebbington, M.: Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 252, 14–28, 2013.
Bebbington, M.: Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic
field, Bull. Volcanol., 77, 39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0921-3, 2015.
Bebbington, M. and Cronin, S.: Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model, Bull.
Volcanol., 73, 55–72, 2011.
Bebbington, M., Stirling, M., Cronin, S., Wang, T., and Jolly, G.:
National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation, Bull.
Volcanol., 80, 56, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-018-1230-4, 2018.
Becerril, L., Cappello, A., Galindo, I., Neri, M., and Del Negro, C.: Spatial
probability distribution of future volcanic eruptions at El Hierro Island
(Canary Islands, Spain), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 257, 21–30, 2013.
Bevilacqua, A.: Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at
Campi Flegrei caldera, in: Thesis, 21, Edizioni della Normale, Birkhäuser/Springer, Pisa, 2016.
Bevilacqua, A., Isaia, R., Neri, A., Vitale, S., Aspinall, W., Bisson, M.,
Flandoli, F., Baxter, P., Bertagnini, A., and Esposti Ongaro, T.: Quantifying
volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 120, 2309–2329, 2015.
Bevilacqua, A., Bursik, M., Patra, A., Pitman, E., and Till, R.: Bayesian
construction of a long-term vent opening probability map in the Long Valley
volcanic region (CA, USA), Statist. Volcanol., 3, 1, https://doi.org/10.5038/2163-338X.3.1, 2017a.
Bevilacqua, A., Neri, A., Bisson, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., Flandoli, F., Isaia, R., Rosi, M., and Vitale, S.: The effects of vent location, event scale, and time forecasts on pyroclastic density current hazard maps at
Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), Front. Earth Sci., 5, 72, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00072, 2017b.
Bevilacqua, A., Bursik, M., Patra, A., Pitman, E., Yang, Q., Sangani, R., and
Kobs-Nawotniak, S.: Late Quaternary eruption record and probability of
future volcanic eruptions in the Long Valley volcanic region (CA, USA), J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 5466–5494, 2018.
Bevilacqua, A., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., and Neri, A.:
Enhancing the uncertainty quantification of pyroclastic density current
dynamics in the Campi Flegrei caldera, Frontiers of Uncertainty
Quantification 19 (ERCOFTAC-GAMM-AC), Pisa, Italy, 2019a.
Bevilacqua, A., Patra, A. K., Bursik, M. I., Pitman, E. B., Macías, J. L., Saucedo, R., and Hyman, D.: Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019, 2019b.
Bevilacqua, A., Pitman, E., Patra, A., Neri, A., Bursik, M., and Voight, B.:
Probabilistic enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method using a stochastic
differential equation and application to volcanic eruption forecasts,
Front. Earth Sci., 7, 135, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00135, 2019c.
Bevilacqua, A., Neri, A., De Martino, P., Isaia, R., Novellino, A., Tramparulo, F., and Vitale, S.: Radial interpolation of GPS and leveling data
of ground deformation in a resurgent caldera: application to Campi Flegrei
(Italy), J. Geod., 94, 24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-020-01355-x, 2020a.
Bevilacqua, A., Patra, A., Pitman, E., Bursik, M., De Martino, P.,
Giudicepietro, F., Macedonio, G., Vitale, S., Flandoli, F., Voight, B., and
Neri, A.: First application of the failure forecast method to the GPS
horizontal displacement data collected in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)
in 2011–2020, ArXiv: preprint, ArXiv 2007.02756, 2020b.
Bonadonna, C., Connor, C. B., Houghton, B. F., Connor, L., Byrne, M., Laing,
A., and Hincks, T. K.: Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: Hazard
assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 110, B03203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002896, 2005.
Cappello, A., Neri, M., Acocella, V., Gallo, G., Vicari, A., and Del Negro,
C.: Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 2083–2094, 2012.
Cappello, A., Geshi, N., Neri, M., and Del Negro, C.: Lava flow hazards – An
impending threat at Miyakejima volcano, Japan, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 308, 1–9, 2015.
Chapman, N., Apted, M., Aspinall, W., Berryman, K., Cloos, M., Connor, C., Connor, L., Jaquet, O., and Kiyosugi, K.: TOPAZ Project: Long-term tectonic hazard to geological repositories, Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO) Report, 87 pp., 2012.
Chaussard, E. and Amelung, F.: Precursory inflation of shallow magma reservoirs at west Sunda volcanoes detected by InSAR, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053817, 2012.
Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., and Andronico, D.: Explosive
activity and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new
classification scheme, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 331–346, 2008.
Cioni, R., Tadini, A., Gurioli, L., Bertagnini, A., Mulas, M., Bevilacqua, A., and Neri, A.: Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties
for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 82, 1–20, 2020.
Clarke, B., Tierz, P., Calder, E., and Yirgu, G.: Probabilistic volcanic
hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents from pumice cone eruptions at Aluto Volcano, Ethiopia, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 348,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00348, 2020.
Connor, C. and Hill, B.: Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the
probability of basaltic volcanism: application to the Yucca Mountain region,
Nevada, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 100, 10107–10125, 1995.
Connor, C., Stamatakos, J., Ferrill, D., Hill, B., Ofoegbu, G., Conway, F.,
Sagar, B., and Trapp, J.: Geologic factors controlling patterns of small-volume basaltic volcanism: Application to a volcanic hazards
assessment at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 105, 417–432, 2000.
Connor, C., Bebbington, M., and Marzocchi, W.: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment, in: Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 2nd Edn., edited by: Sigurdsson, H., Academic Press, Amsterdam, 897–910, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00051-1, 2015.
Connor, C., Connor, L., Germa, A., Richardson, J., Bebbington, M., Gallant,
E., and Saballos, A.: How to use kernel density estimation as a diagnostic
and forecasting tool for distributed volcanic vents, Statist. Volcanol., 4, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5038/2163-338X.4.3, 2019.
Connor, L., Connor, C., Meliksetian, K., and Savov, I.: Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for
a nuclear facility in Armenia, J. Appl. Volcanol., 1, 3, https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-1-3, 2012.
Coppola, D., Piscopo, D., Staudacher, T., and Cigolini, C.: Lava discharge
rate and effusive pattern at Piton de la Fournaise from MODIS data, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 184, 174–192, 2009.
Cox, D. R. and Isham, V.: Point processes, Chapman and Hall, London, New York, 1980.
Daley, D. and Vere-Jones, D.: An Introduction to the Theory of Point
Processes, in: Volume I: Elementary Theory and Methods, Springer, Heidelberg,
2003.
Daley, D. and Vere-Jones, D.: An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes, in: Volume II: General Theory and Structure, Springer, New York, 2008.
Del Negro, C., Cappello, A., Neri, M., Bilotta, G., Hérault, A., and
Ganci, G.: Lava flow hazards at Mount Etna: constraints imposed by eruptive
history and numerical simulations, Scient. Rep., 3, 1–8, 2013.
Del Negro, C., Cappello, A., Bilotta, G., Ganci, G., Hérault, A., and
Zago, V.: Living at the edge of an active volcano: Risk from lava flows on
Mt. Etna, GSA Bull., 132, 1615–1625, 2020.
DeMets, C.: A new estimate for present-day Cocos-Caribbean plate motion:
Implications for slip along the Central American volcanic arc, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4043–4046, 2001.
Deng, F., Connor, C. B., Malservisi, R., Connor, L. J., White, J. T., Germa,
A., and Wetmore, P. H.: A geophysical model for the origin of volcano vent
clusters in a Colorado Plateau volcanic field, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 122, 8910–8924, 2017.
Espinoza, F.: Neotectónica de la falla Nejapa, porción oeste del
graben de Managua, Nicaragua, tesis de Maestría, UNAM, México, 2007.
Fairbrothers, G., Carr, M., and Mayfield, D.: Temporal magmatic variation at
Boqueron volcano, El Salvador, Contrib. Mineral. Petrol., 67, 1–9, 1978.
Felpeto, A., Martí, J., and Ortiz, R.: Automatic GIS-based system for
volcanic hazard assessment, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 166, 106–116, 2007.
Ferrés, D., Delgado-Granados, H., Hernández, W., Pullinger, C.,
Chávez, H., Taracena, C. C., and Cañas-Dinarte, C.: Three thousand
years of flank and central vent eruptions of the San Salvador volcanic
complex (El Salvador) and their effects on El Cambio archeological site: a
review based on tephrostratigraphy, Bull. Volcanol., 73, 833,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0465-0, 2011.
Ferrés, D., Delgado-Granados, H., Gutiérrez, R., Farraz, I., Hernández, E., Pullinger, C., and Escobar, C.: Explosive volcanic history
and hazard zonation maps of Boquerón Volcano (San Salvador volcanic
complex, El Salvador), Geological Society of America Special Papers 498,
Geological Society of America, 201–230, https://doi.org/10.1130/2013.2498(12), 2013.
Ferrés, D.: Estratigrafía, geología y evaluación de peligros volcánicos del Complejo Volcánico de San Salvador (El Salvador), PhD. thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, 316 pp., 2014.
Freundt, A. and Kutterolf, S.: The long-lived Chiltepe volcanic complex,
Nicaragua: magmatic evolution at an arc offset, Bull. Volcanol., 81, 1–22, 2019.
Freundt, A., Hartmann, A., Kutterolf, S., and Strauch, W.: Volcaniclastic
stratigraphy of the Tiscapa maar crater walls (Managua, Nicaragua): implications for volcanic and seismic hazards and Holocene climate changes,
Int. J. Earth Sci., 99, 1453–1470, 2010.
Gaffney, E. and Damjanac, B.: Localization of volcanic activity: topographic
effects on dike propagation, eruption and conduit formation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14313, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026852, 2006.
Gallant, E., Richardson, J., Connor, C., Wetmore, P., and Connor, L.: A new
approach to probabilistic lava flow hazard assessments, applied to the Idaho
National Laboratory, eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA, Geology, 46,
895–898, 2018.
Hayashi, J. N. and Self, S.: A comparison of pyroclastic flow and debris
avalanche mobility, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 97, 9063–9071, 1992.
Huppert, H. E. and Simpson, J. E.: The slumping of gravity currents, J. Fluid Mech., 99, 785–799, 1980.
Hyman, D. M., Bevilacqua, A., and Bursik, M. I.: Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019.
Jaquet, O., Connor, C., and Connor, L.: Probabilistic methodology for long-term assessment of volcanic hazards, Nucl. Technol., 163, 180–189, 2008.
Jaquet, O., Lantuéjoul, C., and Goto, J.: Probabilistic estimation of
long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data,
J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 235, 29–36, 2012.
Jaquet, O., Lantuéjoul, C., and Goto, J.: Probabilistic estimation of
long-term volcanic hazard under evolving tectonic conditions in a 1 Ma
timeframe, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 345, 58–66, 2017.
Kósik, S., Bebbington, M., and Németh, K.: Spatio-temporal hazard
estimation in the central silicic part of Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand,
based on small to medium volume eruptions, Bull. Volcanol., 82, 50, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-020-01392-6, 2020.
Kutterolf, S., Freundt, A., Perez, W., Wehrmann, H., and Schmincke, H. U.:
Late Pleistocene to Holocene temporal succession and magnitudes of
highly-explosive volcanic eruptions in west-central Nicaragua, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 163, 55–82, 2007.
Kutterolf, S., Freundt, A., and Perez, W.: Pacific offshore record of plinian
arc volcanism in Central America: 2. Tephra volumes and erupted masses,
Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 9, Q02S02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GC001791, 2008.
Kutterolf, S., Freundt, A., and Burkert, C.: Eruptive history and magmatic
evolution of the 1.9 kyr Plinian dacitic Chiltepe Tephra from Apoyeque volcano in west-central Nicaragua, Bull. Volcanol., 73, 811–831, 2011.
Le Corvec, N., Menand, T., and Lindsay, J.: Interaction of ascending magma
with pre-existing crustal fractures in monogenetic basaltic volcanism: an
experimental approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 118, 968–984, 2013.
Major, J., Schilling, S., Pullinger, C., Escobar, C., and Howell, M.: Volcano-hazard zonation for San Vicente Volcano, El Salvador, US Geological Survey Open File Report 01-367, US Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington, p. 22, 2001.
Martí, J., Sobradelo, R., Felpeto, A., and García, O.: Eruptive
scenarios of phonolitic volcanism at Teide–Pico Viejo volcanic complex
(Tenerife, Canary Islands), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 767–782, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0569-6, 2012.
Martin, A., Umeda, K., Connor, C., Weller, J., Zhao, D., and Takahashi, M.:
Modeling long-term volcanic hazards through Bayesian inference: An example
from the Tohoku volcanic arc, Japan, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 109, B10208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003201, 2004.
Marzocchi, W. and Bebbington, M.: Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1777–1805, 2012.
Mazzarini, F., Rooney, T., and Isola, I.: The intimate relationship between
strain and magmatism: A numerical treatment of clustered monogenetic fields in the Main Ethiopian Rift, Tectonics, 32, 49–64, 2013.
Mazzarini, F., Le Corvec, N., Isola, I., and Favalli, M.: Volcanic field
elongation, vent distribution, and tectonic evolution of a continental rift:
The Main Ethiopian Rift example, Geosphere, 12, 706–720, 2016.
McKay, M., Beckman, R., and Conover, W.: A comparison of three methods for
selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code, Technometrics, 42, 55–61, 2000.
Mead, S. R. and Magill, C. R.: Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars, J. Appl. Volcanol., 6, 1–7, 2017.
Németh, K. and Kereszturi, G.: Monogenetic volcanism: personal views and
discussion, Int. J. Earth Sci., 104, 2131–2146, 2015.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G.,
Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P., and Esposti Ongaro, T.: Developing an
event tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius, J.
Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 397–415, 2008.
Neri, A., Bevilacqua, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Isaia, R., Aspinall, W., Bisson, M., Flandoli, F., Baxter, P., Bertagnini, A., and Iannuzzi, E.:
Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 2330–2349, 2015.
Newhall, C. and Hoblitt, R.: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises,
Bull. Volcanol., 64, 3–20, 2002.
Newhall, C. G. and Pallister, J. S.: Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees, in: Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters, Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 203–232,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-396453-3.00008-3, 2015.
Ogburn, S. and Calder, E.: The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows
under different emplacement conditions, Front. Earth Sci., 5, 83, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00083, 2017.
Ogburn, S., Berger, J., Calder, E., Lopes, D., Patra, A., Pitman, E., Rutarindwa, R., Spiller, E., and Wolpert, R.: Pooling strength amongst
limited datasets using hierarchical Bayesian analysis, with application to
pyroclastic density current mobility metrics, Statist. Volcanol., 2, 1–26,
https://doi.org/10.5038/2163-338X.2.1, 2016.
Owen, A.: Orthogonal arrays for computer experiments, integration and
visualization, Statist. Sin., 2, 439–452, 1992.
Pardo, N., Avellán, D., Macías, J., Scolamacchia, T., and Rodríguez, D.: The ∼1245 yr BP Asososca maar: New advances on
recent volcanic stratigraphy of Managua (Nicaragua) and hazard implications,
J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 176, 493–512, 2008.
Paris, R., Ulvrova, M., Selva, J., Brizuela, B., Costa, A., Grezio, A.,
Lorito, S., and Tonini, R.: Probabilistic hazard analysis for tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions in the Campi Flegrei caldera,
Italy, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 379, 106–116, 2019.
Patra, A. K., Bevilacqua, A., and Akhavan-Safaei, A.: Analyzing Complex Models using Data and Statistics, in: vol. 10861 of ICCS, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, chap. 57, Springer, Cham, 724–736,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93701-4_57, 2018.
Patra, A., Bevilacqua, A., Pitman, E., Bursik, M., Voight, B., Neri, A.,
Macedonio, G., Flandoli, F., De Martino, P., Giudicepietro, F., and Vitale,
S.: A statistical approach for spatial mapping and temporal forecasts of
volcanic eruptions using monitoring data, in: AGU 2019 Fall Meeting, San
Francisco, CA, USA, 2019.
Patra, A., Bevilacqua, A., Akhavan-Safaei, A., Pitman, E., Bursik, M., and
Hyman, D.: Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 275, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00275, 2020.
Poland, M. and Anderson, K.: Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows:
Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 125, e2018JB016974, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016974, 2020.
Ranjan, P. and Spencer, N.: Space-filling Latin hypercube designs based on
randomization restrictions in factorial experiments, Statist. Probabil. Lett., 94, 239–247, 2014.
Rose, W., Palma, J., Wolf, R., and Gomez, R.: A 50 yr eruption of a basaltic
composite cone: Pacaya, Guatemala, The Geological Society of America Special
Paper 498, Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, USA, 1–21,
https://doi.org/10.1130/2013.2498(01), 2013.
Runge, M., Bebbington, M., Cronin, S., Lindsay, J., Kenedi, C., and Moufti,
M.: Vents to events: determining an eruption event record from volcanic vent
structures for the Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia, Bull. Volcanol., 76, 804, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-014-0804-z, 2014.
Runge, M., Bebbington, M., Cronin, S., Lindsay, J., and Moufti, M.: Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard
forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 311, 41–59, 2016.
Rutarindwa, R., Spiller, E., Bevilacqua, A., Bursik, M., and Patra, A.:
Dynamic probabilistic hazard mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA:
integrating vent opening maps and statistical surrogates of physical models
of pyroclastic density currents, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 124, 9600–9621, 2019.
Sandri, L., Jolly, G., Lindsay, J., Howe, T., and Marzocchi, W.: Combining
long-and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from
the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 705–723, 2012.
Sandri, L., Tierz, P., Costa, A., and Marzocchi, W.: Probabilistic hazard
from pyroclastic density currents in the Neapolitan area (Southern Italy), J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 3474–3500, 2018.
Sandri, L., Bevilacqua, A., Selva, J., Neri, A., Costa, A., and Macedonio,
G.: Eruption forecasting and hazard assessment at INGV during the 2019 crisis exercise at Campi Flegrei, in: 4th Rittmann Conference, Catania, Italy, 2020.
Selva, J., Orsi, G., Di Vito, M., Marzocchi, W., and Sandri, L.: Probability
hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 497–510, 2012.
Selva, J., Costa, A., Sandri, L., Macedonio, G., and Marzocchi, W.: Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study
for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 119, 8805–8826, 2014.
Sheridan, M. F. and Macías, J.: Estimation of risk probability for
gravity-driven pyroclastic flows at Volcan Colima, Mexico, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 66, 251–256, 1995.
Sigmundsson, F., Hreinsdóttir, S., Hooper, A., Arnadóttir, T.,
Pedersen, R., Roberts, M. J., Óskarsson, N., Auriac, A., Decriem, J.,
Einarsson, P., Geirsson, H., Hensch, M., Ófeigsson, B. G., Sturkell, E.,
Sveinbjörnsson, H., and Feigl, K. L.: Intrusion triggering of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive eruption, Nature, 468, 426–430, 2010.
Smith, V., Costa, A., Aguirre-Díaz, G., Pedrazzi, D., Scifo, A., Plunkett, G., Poret, M., Tournigand, P., Miles, D., and Dee, M.: The magnitude and impact of the 431 CE Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango, El Salvador, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 26061–26068, 2020.
Sofield, D.: History and Hazards of Volcán San Salvador, El Salvador, MS thesis, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, USA, 1998.
Sofield, D.: Eruptive history and volcanic hazards of Volcan San Salvador,
Natural hazards in El Salvador, Society of America (GSA), Boulder, CO, USA, 147–158, https://doi.org/10.1130/0-8137-2375-2.147, 2004.
Spiller, E., Bayarri, M., Berger, J., Calder, E., Patra, A., Pitman, E., and
Wolpert, R.: Automating emulator construction for geophysical hazard maps,
SIAM/ASA J. Uncertain. Quantificat., 2, 126–152, 2014.
Stein, M.: Large sample properties of simulations using Latin hypercube
sampling, Technometrics, 29, 143–151, 1987.
Strehlow, K., Sandri, L., Gottsmann, J. H., Kilgour, G., Rust, A. C., and
Tonini, R.: Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and
probabilistic hazard forecast, J. Appl. Volcanol., 6, 1–21, 2017.
Tadini, A., Bevilacqua, A., Neri, A., Cioni, R., Aspinall, W., Bisson, M.,
Isaia, R., Mazzarini, F., Valentine, G., and Vitale, S.: Assessing future
vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability
maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty
quantification, J. Geophys. Re.-Solid, 122, 4357–4376, 2017a.
Tadini, A., Bisson, M., Neri, A., Cioni, R., Bevilacqua, A., and Aspinall, W.: Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 122, 4336–4356, 2017b.
Tang, B.: Orthogonal array-based Latin hypercubes, J. Am. Statist. Assoc., 88, 1392–1397, 1993.
Thompson, M. A., Lindsay, J. M., Sandri, L., Biass, S., Bonadonna, C., Jolly,
G., and Marzocchi, W.: Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption
style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand,
Bull. Volcanol., 77, 1–23, 2015.
Tierz, P., Sandri, L., Costa, A., Zaccarelli, L., Di Vito, M. A., Sulpizio, R., and Marzocchi, W.: Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic
hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
(Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 78, 1–15, 2016a.
Tierz, P., Sandri, L., Costa, A., Sulpizio, R., Zaccarelli, L., Di Vito, M. A., and Marzocchi, W.: Uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic density currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) simulated through the energy cone model, in: Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: Modeling and decision support, American Geophysical Union, Washington, 125–145, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119028116.ch9, 2016b.
Tierz, P., Stefanescu, E. R., Sandri, L., Sulpizio, R., Valentine, G. A.,
Marzocchi, W., and Patra, A. K.: Towards quantitative volcanic risk of
pyroclastic density currents: Probabilistic hazard curves and maps around
Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 6299–6317, 2018.
Tierz, P., Clarke, B., Calder, E. S., Dessalegn, F., Lewi, E., Yirgu, G.,
Fontijn, K., Crummy, J. M., Bekele, Y., and Loughlin, S. C.: Event trees and
epistemic uncertainty in long-term volcanic hazard assessment of rift
volcanoes: The example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia), Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 21, e2020GC009219, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009219, 2020.
Tonini, R., Sandri, L., Costa, A., and Selva, J.: Brief Communication: The effect of submerged vents on probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015.
Valentine, G. and Krogh, K.: Emplacement of shallow dikes and sills beneath
a small basaltic volcanic center–The role of pre-existing structure (Paiute
Ridge, southern Nevada, USA), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 246, 217–230, 2006.
Ward, P., Gibbs, J., Harlow, D., and Aburto, A.: Aftershocks of the Managua,
Nicaragua, earthquake and the tectonic significance of the Tiscapa fault,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 64, 1017–1029, 1974.
Weller, J., Martin, A., Connor, C., Connor, L., and Karakhanian, A.:
Modelling the spatial distribution of volcanoes: an example from Armenia,
Statistics in Volcanology, Special Publications of IAVCEI, 1, 77–88, 2006.
Wright, H., Pallister, J., McCausland, W., Griswold, J., Andreastuti, S.,
Budianto, A., Primulyana, S., Gunawan, H., Battaglia, M., and Diefenbach, A.:
Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at
Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 382, 233–252, 2019.
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint