Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Back calculation of the 2017 Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade with r.avaflow: what we can do and what we can learn
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Geomorphological Systems and Risk Research, Department of Geography
and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstraße 7,
1010 Vienna, Austria
Michel Jaboyedoff
Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Lausanne, Quartier
UNIL-Mouline, Bâtiment Géopolis, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
José Pullarello
Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Lausanne, Quartier
UNIL-Mouline, Bâtiment Géopolis, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Shiva P. Pudasaini
Institute of Geosciences, Geophysics Section, University of Bonn,
Meckenheimer Allee 176, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Related authors
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
Charlotte Wolff, Marc-Henri Derron, Carlo Rivolta, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 13, 225–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The remote-sensing InSAR technique is vital for monitoring slope instabilities but requires understanding. This paper delves into differences between satellite and GB-InSAR. It offers a tool to determine the optimal GB-InSAR installation site, considering various technical, meteorological, and topographical factors. By generating detailed maps and simulating radar image characteristics, the tool eases the setup of monitoring campaigns for effective and accurate ground movement tracking.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Clément Hibert, François Noël, David Toe, Miloud Talib, Mathilde Desrues, Emmanuel Wyser, Ombeline Brenguier, Franck Bourrier, Renaud Toussaint, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 641–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters such as landslides and rockfalls are mostly difficult to study because of the impossibility of making in situ measurements due to their destructive nature and spontaneous occurrence. Seismology is able to record the occurrence of such events from a distance and in real time. In this study, we show that, by using a machine learning approach, the mass and velocity of rockfalls can be estimated from the seismic signal they generate.
François Noël, Michel Jaboyedoff, Andrin Caviezel, Clément Hibert, Franck Bourrier, and Jean-Philippe Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1141–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1141-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall simulations are often performed to make sure infrastructure is safe. For that purpose, rockfall trajectory data are needed to calibrate the simulation models. In this paper, an affordable, flexible, and efficient trajectory reconstruction method is proposed. The method is tested by reconstructing trajectories from a full-scale rockfall experiment involving 2670 kg rocks and a flexible barrier. The results highlight improvements in precision and accuracy of the proposed method.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Shiva P. Pudasaini
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2022-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2022-31, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
New analytical landslide velocity solutions are unified with existing solutions, provide a complete picture of landslide with accelerating & decelerating movements through entire track. Initially ascending & descending fronts result in strikingly contrasting deposition lengths. Time & space evolution with initial peaks of variable strengths lead to a spectacular propagation pattern. Numerical solutions can be replaced by cost-effective, analytical solutions, offering great practical advantages.
Shiva P. Pudasaini and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 165–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first physics-based general landslide velocity model incorporating internal deformation and external forces. Voellmy–inviscid Burgers' equations are specifications of the novel advective–dissipative system. Unified analytical solutions constitute a new foundation of landslide velocity, providing key information to instantly estimate impact forces and describe breaking waves and folding, revealing that landslide dynamics are architectured by advection and reigned by forcing.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7749–7774, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an implementation of the material point method using graphical processing units (GPUs) to solve elastoplastic problems in three-dimensional configurations, such as the granular collapse or the slumping mechanics, i.e., landslide. The computational power of GPUs promotes fast code executions, compared to a traditional implementation using central processing units (CPUs). This allows us to study complex three-dimensional problems tackling high spatial resolution.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6265–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present an efficient and fast material point method (MPM) implementation in MATLAB. We first discuss the vectorization strategies to adapt this numerical method to a MATLAB implementation. We report excellent agreement of the solver compared with classical analysis among the MPM community, such as the cantilever beam problem. The solver achieves a performance gain of 28 compared with a classical iterative implementation.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Michel Jaboyedoff, Masahiro Chigira, Noriyuki Arai, Marc-Henri Derron, Benjamin Rudaz, and Ching-Ying Tsou
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 439–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) can now be acquired using airborne laser scanners. This allows for a detailed analysis of the geometry of landslides. Several large landslides were triggered by Typhoon Talas in Japan in 2011. The comparison of pre- and post-DEMs allowed us to test a method of defining landslide failure surfaces before catastrophic movements. It provides new results about the curvature of the failure surface and the volume expansion of the deposit.
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Jérémie Voumard, Antonio Abellán, Pierrick Nicolet, Ivanna Penna, Marie-Aurélie Chanut, Marc-Henri Derron, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2093–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss the challenges and limitations of surveying rock slope failures using 3-D reconstruction from images acquired from street view imagery (SVI) and processed with modern photogrammetric workflows. Despite some clear limitations and challenges, we demonstrate that this original approach could help obtain preliminary 3-D models of an area without on-field images. Furthermore, the pre-failure topography can be obtained for sites where it would not be available otherwise.
Antoine Guerin, Antonio Abellán, Battista Matasci, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1207–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The coupling of terrestrial lidar scans acquired in 2011 and a photogrammetric model created from 30 old Web-retrieved images enabled reconstructing in 3-D the Drus west face before the 2005 rock avalanche and estimating the volume of this event. The volume is calculated as 292 680 m3 (±5.6 %). However, despite functioning well for the Drus (legendary peak), this method would have been difficult to implement on a less-well-known site with fewer images available to be collected and downloaded.
Pascal Horton, Charles Obled, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3307–3323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The analogue method aims at forecasting precipitation by means of a statistical relationship with meteorological variables at a large scale, such as the general atmospheric circulation. A moving time window has been introduced here in order to allow finding better analogue situations at different hours of the day. This change resulted in a better analogy of the atmospheric circulation, with improved prediction skills, and even to a greater extent for days with heavy precipitation.
Ryan A. Kromer, Antonio Abellán, D. Jean Hutchinson, Matt Lato, Marie-Aurelie Chanut, Laurent Dubois, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 293–310, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and tested an automated terrestrial laser scanning (ATLS) system with near-real-time change detection at the Séchilienne landslide. We monitored the landslide for a 6-week period collecting a point cloud every 30 min. We detected various slope processes including movement of scree material, pre-failure deformation of discrete rockfall events and deformation of the main landslide body. This system allows the study of slope processes a high level of temporal detail.
Roya Olyazadeh, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Sanjaya Devkota
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows the progress and testing of an online–offline web-GIS application based on open-source technologies for landslide hazard and risk. It has satellite images as a base map in the offline mode and data collection in a centralized online database. The advantage of a mobile app coupled with satellite images over mapping in the office is improved identification of landslide type. This study was used for landslides in Nepal, but it can also be useful for other hazards like floods.
Zar Chi Aye, Roya Olyazadeh, Marc-Henri Derron, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Johann Lüthi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an open-source, web-GIS application (RISKGIS), developed for students learning in risk management of geohazards with real case studies. The aim is for students to better understand and become familiarized with approaches used by experts as well as for teachers to better evaluate and monitor student learning. A series of practical exercises is carried out with students and feedback are collected to identify the possibility and applicability of RISKGIS learning platform.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
Jacques Bechet, Julien Duc, Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Nicolle Mathys, Jean-Philippe Malet, Sébastien Klotz, Caroline Le Bouteiller, Benjamin Rudaz, and Julien Travelletti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 781–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the erosion processes of a small black marl catchment. It is based on terrestrial laser scanner digital elevation model campaigns. A detailed sediment budget is performed, leading to a seasonal sediment transport pattern described spatially and temporally. The link with precipitation intensities and duration is analysed, leading to a conceptual model of erosion that provides clear input for future research regarding potential impacts of climate change on erosion processes.
Céline Longchamp, Antonio Abellan, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Irene Manzella
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The main objective of this research is to analyze rock avalanche dynamics by means of a detailed structural analysis of the deposits coming from data of 3-D measurements. The studied deposits are of different magnitude: (1) decimeter level scale laboratory experiments and (2) well-studied rock avalanches.
Filtering techniques were developed and applied to a 3-D dataset in order to detect fault structures present in the deposits and to propose kinematic mechanisms for the propagation.
Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Joshua Isaac Theule, and Frédéric Liébault
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 489–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The sediment supply and storage changes from major channels of the Manival catchment (French Alps) were surveyed periodically for 16 months to study the coupling between sediment dynamics and torrent responses in terms of debris flow events. The spatial and seasonal variability of sediment delivery is displayed and analysed. This study shows that monitoring the changes within a torrent’s in-channel storage and its debris supply can improve knowledge on recharge thresholds leading to debris flow.
Pierrick Nicolet, Michel Jaboyedoff, Catherine Cloutier, Giovanni B. Crosta, and Sébastien Lévy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 995–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
When calculating the risk of railway or road users being killed by a natural hazard, one has to calculate a temporal spatial probability, i.e. the probability of a vehicle being in the path of the falling mass when the mass falls, or the expected number of hit vehicles in the case of an event. This paper discusses different methods used to calculate this probability, in particular regarding the consideration of the dimensions of the falling mass and of the vehicles.
Julie D'Amato, Didier Hantz, Antoine Guerin, Michel Jaboyedoff, Laurent Baillet, and Armand Mariscal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of meteorological conditions on rockfall occurrence has been often highlighted, but quantitative analyses are rare. A near-continuous survey of a limestone cliff has shown that the rockfall frequency can be multiplied by 7 during freeze-thaw episodes and 26 when the mean rainfall intensity (since the beginning of the rainfall episode) is higher than 5 mm h−1. Based on these results, a three-level scale has been proposed for predicting the temporal variations of rockfall frequency.
Z. C. Aye, M. Jaboyedoff, M. H. Derron, C. J. van Westen, H. Y. Hussin, R. L. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
J. Bechet, J. Duc, M. Jaboyedoff, A. Loye, and N. Mathys
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution three-dimensional point clouds are used to analyse erosion processes at the millimetre scale. The processes analysed here play a role in the closure of cracks. We demonstrated how micro-scale infiltration can influence the degradation of soil surface by inducing downward mass movements that are not reversible. This development will aid in designing future experiments to analyse processes such as swelling, crack closure, micro-landslides, etc.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
A. Guerin, D. Hantz, J.-P. Rossetti, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Böhme, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Nicolet, L. Foresti, O. Caspar, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3169–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, 2013
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
J. Voumard, O. Caspar, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2763–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, 2013
P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, B. Rudaz, and M. Zimmermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
InSAR-Informed In-Situ Monitoring for Deep-Seated Landslides: Insights from El Forn (Andorra)
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh-Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) alongside in-situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). InSAR data compared with borehole data suggests a key tradeoff between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error on remote-sensing recreation of ground motion over the landslide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is influenced significantly by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework, which is based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model, aimed at estimating Intensity-Duration (I-D) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically-based framework particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data is scarce.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy 2022 rainfall. Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type, and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Cited articles
Amann, F., Kos, A., Phillips, M., and Kenner, R.: The Piz Cengalo Bergsturz
and subsequent debris flows, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 20, 14700, 2018.
Amt für Wald und Naturgefahren: Bondo: Chronologie der Ereignisse,
2 pp., available
at:
https://www.gr.ch/DE/institutionen/verwaltung/bvfd/awn/dokumentenliste_afw/20170828_Chronologie_Bondo_2017_12_13_dt.pdf (last access:
31 May 2019), 2017.
Beven, K.: Equifinality and Uncertainty in Geomorphological Modelling, in:
The Scientific Nature of Geomorphology: Proceedings of the 27th Binghamton
Symposium in Geomorphology, 27–29 September 1996, John Wiley & Sons,
289–313, 1996.
Bhandary, N. P., Dahal, R. K., and Okamura, M.: Preliminary Understanding of the Seti River Debris-Flood in Pokhara, Nepal, on May 5th, 2012, ISSMGE Bull., 6, 8–18, 2012.
Bonanomi, Y. and Keiser, M.: Bericht zum aktuellen Bergsturz am Piz Cengalo
2017, Bergeller Alpen im Engadin, 19, Geoforum Umhausen, 19–20 Oktober
2017, 55–60, 2017.
Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: RAMMS: Numerical simulation of
dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol.,
63, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2010.04.005, 2010.
De Blasio, F. V. and Crosta, G. B.: Extremely Energetic Rockfalls: Some
preliminary estimates, in: Landslides and Engineered Slopes, Experience,
Theory and Practice, 759–764, CRC Press, 2016.
Demmel, S.: Water Balance in Val Bondasca, Initial hydrological conditions
for debris flows triggered by the 2017 rock avalanche at Pizzo Cengalo,
Master Thesis, ETH Zurich, 50 pp., 2019.
Domnik, B., Pudasaini, S. P., Katzenbach, R., and Miller, S. A.: Coupling of
full two-dimensional and depth-averaged models for granular flows, J.
Non-Newtonian Fluid Mech., 201, 56–68,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnnfm.2013.07.005, 2013.
Evans, S. G., Bishop, N.F., Fidel Smoll, L., Valderrama Murillo, P.,
Delaney, K. B., and Oliver-Smith, A.: A re-examination of the mechanism and
human impact of catastrophic mass flows originating on Nevado Huascarán,
Cordillera Blanca, Peru in 1962 and 1970, Eng. Geol., 108, 96–118,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2009.06.020, 2009a.
Evans, S. G., Roberts, N. J., Ischuk, A., Delaney, K. B., Morozova, G. S., and Tutubalina,
O.: Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait earthquake, Tajikistan, and associated loss of life, Engin. Geol., 109, 195–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2009.08.007, 2009b.
Fischer, J.-T., Kofler, A., Fellin, W., Granig, M., and Kleemayr, K.:
Multivariate parameter optimization for computational snow avalanche
simulation in 3d terrain, J. Glaciol., 61, 875–888,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J168, 2015.
Formetta, G., Capparelli, G., and Versace, P.: Evaluating performance of simplified
physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4585–4603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4585-2016, 2016.
Frank, F., Huggel, C., McArdell, B. W., and Vieli, A.: Landslides and
increased debris-flow activity: a systematic comparison of six catchments in
Switzerland, Earth Surf. Proc. Landforms, 44, 699–712,
https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4524, 2019.
George, D. L. and Iverson, R. M.: A depth-averaged debris-flow model that
includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. II. Numerical predictions and
experimental tests, Proc. Royal Soc. A, 470, 20130820,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2013.0820, 2014.
Haeberli, W.: Mountain permafrost – research frontiers and a special
long-term challenge, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 96, 71–76,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.02.004, 2013.
Haeberli, W. and Whiteman, C. (Eds.): Snow and Ice-related Hazards, Risks
and Disasters, Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394849-6.00001-9,
2014.
Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., and Huggel, C.: Increasing risks related to
landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating
mountain ranges, Geomorphology, 293, 405–417,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009, 2017.
Harris, C., Arenson, L. U., Christiansen, H. H., Etzelmüller, B.,
Frauenfelder, R., Gruber, S., Haeberli, W., Hauck., C., Hölzle, M.,
Humlum, O., Isaksen, K., Kääb, A., Kern-Lütschg, M. A., Lehning,
M., Matsuoka, N., Murton, J. B., Nötzli, J., Phillips, M., Ross, N.,
Seppälä, M., Springman, S. M., and Vonder Mühll, D.: Permafrost
and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological
and geotechnical responses, Earth-Sci. Rev., 92, 117–171,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.12.002, 2009.
Hewitt, K.: Styles of rock-avalanche depositional complexes conditioned by
very rugged terrain, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan, Rev. Eng. Geol., 15,
345–377, 2002.
Huggel, C., Zgraggen-Oswald, S., Haeberli, W., Kääb, A., Polkvoj, A., Galushkin, I., and Evans, S. G.: The 2002 rock/ice avalanche at Kolka/Karmadon, Russian Caucasus: assessment of extraordinary avalanche formation and mobility, and application of QuickBird satellite imagery, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 173–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-173-2005, 2005.
Iverson, R. M.: The physics of debris flows, Rev. Geophys., 35, 245–296,
https://doi.org/10.1029/97RG00426, 1997.
Iverson, R. M. and George, D. L.: A depth-averaged debris-flow model that
includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. I. Physical basis, Proc. Royal
Soc. A, 470, 20130819, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2013.0819, 2014.
Iverson, R. M., Reid, M. E., Iverson, N. R., LaHusen, R. G., Logan, M.,
Mann, J. E., and Brien, D. L.: Acute sensitivity of landslide rates to
initial soil porosity, Science, 290, 513–516,
https.doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5491.513, 2000.
Iverson, R. M., Logan, M., LaHusen, R. G., and Berti, M.: The perfect debris
flow? aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments, J. Geophys. Res.,
115, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001514, 2010.
Kattel. P , Khattri, K. B., Pokhrel, P. R., Kafle, J., Tuladhar, B. M., and
Pudasaini, S. P.: Simulating glacial lake outburst floods with a two-phase
mass flow model, Ann. Glaciol., 57, 349–358,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2016AoG71A039, 2016.
Krautblatter, M., Funk, D., and Günzel, F. K.: Why permafrost rocks
become unstable: a rock–ice-mechanical model in time and space, Earth Surf.
Process. Landf., 38, 876–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3374, 2013.
McDougall, S. and Hungr, O.: A Model for the Analysis of Rapid Landslide
Motion across Three-Dimensional Terrain, Can. Geotech. J., 41, 1084–1097,
https://doi.org/10.1139/t04-052, 2004.
Mergili, M. and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow – The open source mass flow
simulation model, available at: https://www.avaflow.org/, last access: 7 July 2019.
Mergili, M., Fischer, J.-T., Krenn, J., and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow v1, an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and interaction of two-phase mass flows, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017.
Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Juřicová, A., Cochachin, A., Fischer, J.-T.,
Huggel, C., and Pudasaini, S. P.: How well can we simulate complex
hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the
Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú), Earth Surf. Process.
Landf., 43, 1373–1389, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4318, 2018a.
Mergili, M., Frank, B., Fischer, J.-T., Huggel, C., and Pudasaini, S. P.:
Computational experiments on the 1962 and 1970 landslide events at
Huascarán (Peru) with r.avaflow: Lessons learned for predictive mass
flow simulations, Geomorphology, 322, 15–28,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.08.032, 2018b.
Nessyahu, H. and Tadmor, E.: Non-oscillatory central differencing for
hyperbolic conservation laws, J. Comput. Phys., 87, 408–463,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9991(90)90260-8, 1990.
Nicoletti, G. P. and Sorriso-Valvo, M.: Geomorphic controls of the shape
and mobility of rock avalanches, GSA Bull., 103, 1365–1373,
https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1991)103<1365:GCOTSA>2.3.CO;2, 1991.
Pitman, E. B. and Le, L.: A two-fluid model for avalanche and debris flows,
Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 363, 1573–1601,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1596, 2005.
Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 117, F03010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002186, 2012.
Pudasaini, S. P.: A full description of generalized drag in mixture mass
flows, Eng. Geol., 265, 105429, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105429,
2019.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Fischer, J.-T.: A mechanical erosion model for
two-phase mass flows, https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.01806, 2016.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Krautblatter, M.: A two-phase mechanical model for
rock-ice avalanches, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 119, 2272–2290,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003183, 2014.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Mergili, M.: A Multi-Phase Mass Flow Model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth Surf., 124, 2920–2942, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005204, 2019.
Preh, A. and Sausgruber, J. T.: The Extraordinary Rock-Snow Avalanche of
Alpl, Tyrol, Austria. Is it Possible to Predict the Runout by Means of
Single-phase Voellmy- or Coulomb-Type Models?, in: Engineering Geology for
Society and Territory–Volume 2, edited by: Lollino, G., Giordan, D., Crosta, G. B., Corominas, J., Azzam, R., Wasowski, J., and Sciarra, N., Springer,
Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_338, 2015.
Savage, S. B. and Hutter, K.: The motion of a finite mass of granular
material down a rough incline, J. Fluid Mech., 199, 177–215,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112089000340, 1989.
Scheidegger, A. E.: On the Prediction of the Reach and Velocity of
Catastrophic Landslides, Rock Mech., 5, 231–236,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01301796, 1973.
Schneider, D., Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Guillén, S., and García,
J.: Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of
process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru, Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155,
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014.
Somos-Valenzuela, M. A., Chisolm, R. E., Rivas, D. S., Portocarrero, C., and McKinney, D. C.: Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2519–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, 2016.
Steinacher, R., Kuster, C., Buchli, C., and Meier, L.: The Pizzo Cengalo and
Val Bondasca events: From early warnings to immediate alarms, Geophys. Res.
Abstr. 20, 17536, 2018.
Tai, Y. C., Noelle, S., Gray, J. M. N. T., and Hutter, K.: Shock-capturing
and front-tracking methods for granular avalanches, J. Comput. Phys.,
175, 269–301, https://doi.org/10.1006/jcph.2001.6946, 2002.
VAW: Vadrec dal Cengal Ost: Veränderungen in Vergangenheit und Zukunft,
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology of the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology Zurich, 17 pp., available at:
https://www.gr.ch/DE/institutionen/verwaltung/bvfd/awn/dokumentenliste_afw/Cengalo Gletscherentwicklung ETH_2nov_final.pdf (last access: 31 May 2019), 2017.
Voellmy, A.: Über die Zerstörungskraft von Lawinen, Schweizerische
Bauzeitung, 73, 159–162, 212–217, 246–249, 280–285, 1955.
Walter, F., Wenner, M., and Amann, F.: Seismic Analysis of the August 2017
Landslide on Piz Cengalo (Switzerland), Geophys. Res. Abstr., 20, 3163-1,
2018.
Walter, F., Amann, F., Kos, A., Kenner, R., Phillips, M., de Preux, A.,
Huss, M., Tognacca, C., Clinton, J., Diehl, T., and Bonanomi, Y.: Direct
observations of a three million cubic meter rock-slope collapse with almost
immediate initiation of ensuing debris flows, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett.,
351, 106933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106933, 2020.
Wang, Y., Hutter, K., and Pudasaini, S. P.: The Savage-Hutter theory: A
system of partial differential equations for avalanche flows of snow,
debris, and mud, ZAMM – J. Appl. Math. Mech., 84, 507–527,
https://doi.org/10.1002/zamm.200310123, 2004.
Worni, R., Huggel, C., Clague, J. J., Schaub, Y., and Stoffel, M.: Coupling
glacial lake impact, dam breach, and flood processes: A modeling
perspective, Geomorphology, 224, 161–176,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.06.031, 2014.
WSL: SLF Gutachten G2017.20: Modellierung des Cengalo Bergsturzes mit
verschiedenen Rahmenbedingungen, Bondo, GR. WSL-Institut für Schnee- und
Lawinenforschung SLF, 69 pp., available at:
https://www.gr.ch/DE/institutionen/verwaltung/bvfd/awn/dokumentenliste_afw/SLF_G2017_20_Modellierung_Cengalo_Bergsturz_030418_A.pdf (last access: 31 May 2019), 2017.
Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint