Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 21 Feb 2020
Research article | 21 Feb 2020
Back calculation of the 2017 Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade with r.avaflow: what we can do and what we can learn
Martin Mergili et al.
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Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
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The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
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In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
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r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
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The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-200, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this work, we propose an explicit implementation of the material point method under a graphical processing unit (GPU) architecture to solve for elastoplastic problems for three-dimensional configurations, such as the granular collapse or the slumping mechanics, i.e., landslide. The computational power of GPUs promotes fast code executions, compared to a traditional implementation under a central processing unit architecture. This allows the study of complex three-dimensional problems.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6265–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, 2020
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In this work, we present an efficient and fast material point method (MPM) implementation in MATLAB. We first discuss the vectorization strategies to adapt this numerical method to a MATLAB implementation. We report excellent agreement of the solver compared with classical analysis among the MPM community, such as the cantilever beam problem. The solver achieves a performance gain of 28 compared with a classical iterative implementation.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
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In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Michel Jaboyedoff, Masahiro Chigira, Noriyuki Arai, Marc-Henri Derron, Benjamin Rudaz, and Ching-Ying Tsou
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 439–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, 2019
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High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) can now be acquired using airborne laser scanners. This allows for a detailed analysis of the geometry of landslides. Several large landslides were triggered by Typhoon Talas in Japan in 2011. The comparison of pre- and post-DEMs allowed us to test a method of defining landslide failure surfaces before catastrophic movements. It provides new results about the curvature of the failure surface and the volume expansion of the deposit.
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Jérémie Voumard, Antonio Abellán, Pierrick Nicolet, Ivanna Penna, Marie-Aurélie Chanut, Marc-Henri Derron, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2093–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, 2017
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We discuss the challenges and limitations of surveying rock slope failures using 3-D reconstruction from images acquired from street view imagery (SVI) and processed with modern photogrammetric workflows. Despite some clear limitations and challenges, we demonstrate that this original approach could help obtain preliminary 3-D models of an area without on-field images. Furthermore, the pre-failure topography can be obtained for sites where it would not be available otherwise.
Antoine Guerin, Antonio Abellán, Battista Matasci, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1207–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, 2017
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The coupling of terrestrial lidar scans acquired in 2011 and a photogrammetric model created from 30 old Web-retrieved images enabled reconstructing in 3-D the Drus west face before the 2005 rock avalanche and estimating the volume of this event. The volume is calculated as 292 680 m3 (±5.6 %). However, despite functioning well for the Drus (legendary peak), this method would have been difficult to implement on a less-well-known site with fewer images available to be collected and downloaded.
Pascal Horton, Charles Obled, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3307–3323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, 2017
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The analogue method aims at forecasting precipitation by means of a statistical relationship with meteorological variables at a large scale, such as the general atmospheric circulation. A moving time window has been introduced here in order to allow finding better analogue situations at different hours of the day. This change resulted in a better analogy of the atmospheric circulation, with improved prediction skills, and even to a greater extent for days with heavy precipitation.
Ryan A. Kromer, Antonio Abellán, D. Jean Hutchinson, Matt Lato, Marie-Aurelie Chanut, Laurent Dubois, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 293–310, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, 2017
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We developed and tested an automated terrestrial laser scanning (ATLS) system with near-real-time change detection at the Séchilienne landslide. We monitored the landslide for a 6-week period collecting a point cloud every 30 min. We detected various slope processes including movement of scree material, pre-failure deformation of discrete rockfall events and deformation of the main landslide body. This system allows the study of slope processes a high level of temporal detail.
Roya Olyazadeh, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Sanjaya Devkota
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, 2017
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This work shows the progress and testing of an online–offline web-GIS application based on open-source technologies for landslide hazard and risk. It has satellite images as a base map in the offline mode and data collection in a centralized online database. The advantage of a mobile app coupled with satellite images over mapping in the office is improved identification of landslide type. This study was used for landslides in Nepal, but it can also be useful for other hazards like floods.
Zar Chi Aye, Roya Olyazadeh, Marc-Henri Derron, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Johann Lüthi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this paper, we present an open-source, web-GIS application (RISKGIS), developed for students learning in risk management of geohazards with real case studies. The aim is for students to better understand and become familiarized with approaches used by experts as well as for teachers to better evaluate and monitor student learning. A series of practical exercises is carried out with students and feedback are collected to identify the possibility and applicability of RISKGIS learning platform.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
Jacques Bechet, Julien Duc, Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Nicolle Mathys, Jean-Philippe Malet, Sébastien Klotz, Caroline Le Bouteiller, Benjamin Rudaz, and Julien Travelletti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 781–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the erosion processes of a small black marl catchment. It is based on terrestrial laser scanner digital elevation model campaigns. A detailed sediment budget is performed, leading to a seasonal sediment transport pattern described spatially and temporally. The link with precipitation intensities and duration is analysed, leading to a conceptual model of erosion that provides clear input for future research regarding potential impacts of climate change on erosion processes.
Céline Longchamp, Antonio Abellan, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Irene Manzella
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, 2016
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The main objective of this research is to analyze rock avalanche dynamics by means of a detailed structural analysis of the deposits coming from data of 3-D measurements. The studied deposits are of different magnitude: (1) decimeter level scale laboratory experiments and (2) well-studied rock avalanches.
Filtering techniques were developed and applied to a 3-D dataset in order to detect fault structures present in the deposits and to propose kinematic mechanisms for the propagation.
Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Joshua Isaac Theule, and Frédéric Liébault
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 489–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, 2016
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The sediment supply and storage changes from major channels of the Manival catchment (French Alps) were surveyed periodically for 16 months to study the coupling between sediment dynamics and torrent responses in terms of debris flow events. The spatial and seasonal variability of sediment delivery is displayed and analysed. This study shows that monitoring the changes within a torrent’s in-channel storage and its debris supply can improve knowledge on recharge thresholds leading to debris flow.
Pierrick Nicolet, Michel Jaboyedoff, Catherine Cloutier, Giovanni B. Crosta, and Sébastien Lévy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 995–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, 2016
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When calculating the risk of railway or road users being killed by a natural hazard, one has to calculate a temporal spatial probability, i.e. the probability of a vehicle being in the path of the falling mass when the mass falls, or the expected number of hit vehicles in the case of an event. This paper discusses different methods used to calculate this probability, in particular regarding the consideration of the dimensions of the falling mass and of the vehicles.
Julie D'Amato, Didier Hantz, Antoine Guerin, Michel Jaboyedoff, Laurent Baillet, and Armand Mariscal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016, 2016
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The influence of meteorological conditions on rockfall occurrence has been often highlighted, but quantitative analyses are rare. A near-continuous survey of a limestone cliff has shown that the rockfall frequency can be multiplied by 7 during freeze-thaw episodes and 26 when the mean rainfall intensity (since the beginning of the rainfall episode) is higher than 5 mm h−1. Based on these results, a three-level scale has been proposed for predicting the temporal variations of rockfall frequency.
Z. C. Aye, M. Jaboyedoff, M. H. Derron, C. J. van Westen, H. Y. Hussin, R. L. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
J. Bechet, J. Duc, M. Jaboyedoff, A. Loye, and N. Mathys
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, 2015
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High-resolution three-dimensional point clouds are used to analyse erosion processes at the millimetre scale. The processes analysed here play a role in the closure of cracks. We demonstrated how micro-scale infiltration can influence the degradation of soil surface by inducing downward mass movements that are not reversible. This development will aid in designing future experiments to analyse processes such as swelling, crack closure, micro-landslides, etc.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
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The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
A. Guerin, D. Hantz, J.-P. Rossetti, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Böhme, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Nicolet, L. Foresti, O. Caspar, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3169–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, 2013
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
J. Voumard, O. Caspar, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2763–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, 2013
P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, B. Rudaz, and M. Zimmermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, 2013
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DebrisFlow Predictor: an agent-based runout program for shallow landslides
Leveraging time series analysis of radar coherence and normalized difference vegetation index ratios to characterize pre-failure activity of the Mud Creek landslide, California
A model for interpreting the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China
Nepalese landslide information system (NELIS): a conceptual framework for a web-based geographical information system for enhanced landslide risk management in Nepal
Modelling landslide hazards under global changes: the case of a Pyrenean valley
Debris flows recorded in the Moscardo catchment (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019
The potential of Smartstone probes in landslide experiments: how to read motion data
INSPIRE standards as a framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslide example
New global characterisation of landslide exposure
Semi-empirical prediction of dam height and stability of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway
Detecting precursors of an imminent landslide along the Jinsha River
A systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detection
Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics
Stability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fractures
Deriving rainfall thresholds for landsliding at the regional scale: daily and hourly resolutions, normalisation, and antecedent rainfall
Shear rate effect on the residual strength characteristics of saturated loess in naturally drained ring shear tests
Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides
The mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveys
Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal link
Timing, drivers and impacts of the historic Masiere di Vedana rock avalanche (Belluno Dolomites, NE Italy)
Sensitivity and identifiability of rheological parameters in debris flow modeling
Assessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: a case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations
Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trends
A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China
Analysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)
Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient
Erosion after an extreme storm event in an arid fluvial system of the southern Atacama Desert: an assessment of the magnitude, return time, and conditioning factors of erosion and debris flow generation
Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrain
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Karel Martínek, Kryštof Verner, Tomáš Hroch, Leta A. Megerssa, Veronika Kopačková, David Buriánek, Ameha Muluneh, Radka Kalinová, Miheret Yakob, and Muluken Kassa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3465–3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3465-2021, 2021
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This study combines field geological and geohazard mapping with remote sensing data. Geostatistical analysis evaluated precipitation, land use, vegetation density, rock mass strength, and tectonics. Contrasting tectonic and climatic setting of the Main Ethiopian Rift and uplifted Ethiopian Plateau have major impacts on the distribution of landslides.
Lauren Zweifel, Maxim Samarin, Katrin Meusburger, and Christine Alewell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, 2021
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Mountainous grassland areas can be severely affected by soil erosion, such as by shallow landslides. With an automated mapping approach we are able to locate shallow-landslide sites on aerial images for 10 different study sites across Swiss mountain regions covering a total of 315 km2. Using a statistical model we identify important explanatory variables for shallow-landslide occurrence for the individual sites as well as across all regions, which highlight slope, aspect and terrain roughness.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Katy Burrows, David Milledge, Richard J. Walters, and Dino Bellugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2993–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, 2021
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When cloud cover obscures optical satellite imagery, there are two options remaining for generating information on earthquake-triggered landslide locations: (1) models which predict landslide locations based on, e.g., slope and ground shaking data and (2) satellite radar data, which penetrates cloud cover and is sensitive to landslides. Here we show that the two approaches can be combined to give a more consistent and more accurate model of landslide locations after an earthquake.
Jacob Hirschberg, Alexandre Badoux, Brian W. McArdell, Elena Leonarduzzi, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, 2021
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Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Jason Goetz, Robin Kohrs, Eric Parra Hormazábal, Manuel Bustos Morales, María Belén Araneda Riquelme, Cristián Henríquez, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2543–2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, 2021
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Debris flows are fast-moving landslides that can cause incredible destruction to lives and property. Using the Andes of Santiago as an example, we developed tools to finetune and validate models predicting likely runout paths over large regions. We anticipate that our automated approach that links the open-source R software with SAGA-GIS will make debris-flow runout simulation more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
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The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Vipin Kumar, Léna Cauchie, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Mihai Micu, and Hans-Balder Havenith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-230, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The SE Carpathians belong to one of the most active seismic regions of Europe and are also subjected to changing climate. These natural processes are resulting in frequent landslides, particularly of debris flow type. Despite these regimes, the region has been least explored to understand the potential effects of the landslides in seismic and rainfall regimes. This study attempts to fulfill this gap by evaluating landslide response under seismic & extreme rainfall regime.
Nan Wang, Luigi Lombardo, Marj Tonini, Weiming Cheng, Liang Guo, and Junnan Xiong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2109–2124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2109-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2109-2021, 2021
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This study exploits 66 years of flash flood disasters across China.
The conclusions are as follows. The clustering procedure highlights distinct spatial and temporal patterns of flash flood disasters at different scales. There are distinguished seasonal, yearly and even long-term persistent flash flood behaviors of flash flood disasters. Finally, the decreased duration of clusters in the recent period indicates a possible activation induced by short-duration extreme rainfall events.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2125–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, 2021
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We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric data set combined with landslide inventories to investigate the atmospheric triggers, define triggering thresholds, and characterize the climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2041–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2041-2021, 2021
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In this paper the relation between the intensity of meteorological events and the magnitude of triggered geo-hydrological issues was examined. A back analysis was developed across a region of the central Alps. The meteorological triggers were interpreted using two approaches: the first using local rain gauge data and a new one considering meteorological reanalysis maps. The results obtained were compared and elaborated for defining a magnitude of each geo-hydrological event.
Isidro Cantarino, Miguel Angel Carrion, Jose Sergio Palencia-Jimenez, and Víctor Martínez-Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1847–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1847-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1847-2021, 2021
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Risk ratio (RR), developed in this paper, stands out as a robust indicator for finding the relationship between residential construction and its associated landslide risk. It proved especially useful for municipalities on the Mediterranean coast, since it differentiates between those that take on a higher risk and those that do not. Our research establishes valuable criteria to find how suitable a specific local entity's risk management is and explore what causes the incidence of landslide risk.
Marta Martinengo, Daniel Zugliani, and Giorgio Rosatti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1769-2021, 2021
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Rainfall thresholds are relations between rainfall intensity and duration on which the forecast of the possible occurrence of a debris flow can be based. To check the robustness of a physically based stony debris flow rainfall threshold, in this work we developed a procedure to estimate the effects of various sources of error on the determination of the threshold parameters. Results show that these effects are limited and therefore show the good robustness of the threshold estimate.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, 2021
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This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Clàudia Abancó, Georgina L. Bennett, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark Anthony M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1531-2021, 2021
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In 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut triggered thousands of landslides in the Itogon region (Philippines). An inventory of 1101 landslides revealed that landslides mostly occurred in slopes covered by wooded grassland in clayey materials, predominantly facing E-SE. Satellite rainfall and soil moisture data associated with Typhoon Mangkhut and the previous months in 2018 were analyzed. Results showed that landslides occurred during high-intensity rainfall that coincided with the highest soil moisture values.
Fausto Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1467–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021, 2021
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This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.
Silvan Leinss, Enrico Bernardini, Mylène Jacquemart, and Mikhail Dokukin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021, 2021
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A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Donghe Ma, and Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1247–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1247-2021, 2021
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In previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping, one inventory is for one kind of landslide. However, this causes some problems for prevention and management. This study aims to map two kinds of landslides and use the results on the same map to explore the potential relationship. Through superimposition of two zoning maps, this provides a new way to evaluate the disaster chain and provides a valuable reference for land use planners.
Adeline Delonca, Yann Gunzburger, and Thierry Verdel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1263–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1263-2021, 2021
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Rockfalls are a major sources of danger, particularly along transportation routes. Thus, the assessment of their occurrence is a major challenge for risk management. One interesting factor involved in the occurrence of an event is the failure mechanism of rock bridges along the potential failure plane. This work proposes to study the phenomenology of this failure considering numerical modelling. The influence of rock bridge position in regard to the rockfall failure mode is highlighted.
Richard Guthrie and Andrew Befus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1029–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1029-2021, 2021
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In order to address a need for a debris flow or debris avalanche model that can be applied regionally with relatively few inputs, we developed and present herein an agent-based landslide-simulation model called DebrisFlow Predictor. DebrisFlow Predictor is a fully predictive, probabilistic debris flow runout model. It produces realistic results and can be applied easily to entire regions. We hope that the model will provide useful insight into hazard and risk assessments where it is applicable.
Mylène Jacquemart and Kristy Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-629-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-629-2021, 2021
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We used interferometric radar coherence – a data quality indicator typically used to assess the reliability of radar interferometry data – to document the destabilization of the Mud Creek landslide in California, 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure. We calculated a time series of coherence on the slide relative to the surrounding hillslope and suggest that this easy-to-compute metric might be useful for assessing the stability of a hillslope.
Zongxing Zou, Huiming Tang, Robert E. Criss, Xinli Hu, Chengren Xiong, Qiong Wu, and Yi Yuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-517-2021, 2021
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The evolutionary trend of deforming landslides and feasible treatments for huge reservoir landslides needs further study. A geomechanical model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides. The deformation process of Shuping landslide is well interpreted by the geomechanical model. A successful engineering treatment is applied in treating the Shuping landslide, providing references for treating other huge landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Sansar Raj Meena, Florian Albrecht, Daniel Hölbling, Omid Ghorbanzadeh, and Thomas Blaschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 301–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-301-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-301-2021, 2021
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Comprehensive and sustainable landslide management, including identification of landslide-susceptible areas, requires a lot of organisations and people to collaborate efficiently. In this study, we propose a concept for a system that provides users with a platform to share the location of landslide events for further collaboration in Nepal. The system can be beneficial for specifying potentially risky regions and consequently, the development of risk mitigation strategies at the local level.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 147–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, 2021
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The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100.
The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content. The results indicate that the occurrence of landslide hazards in the future is expected to increase.
Lorenzo Marchi, Federico Cazorzi, Massimo Arattano, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Stefano Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 87–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, 2021
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Debris-flow research requires experimental data that are difficult to collect because of the intrinsic characteristics of these hazardous processes. This paper presents debris-flow data recorded in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019. In this time interval, 30 debris flows were observed. The paper presents data on triggering rainfall, flow velocity, peak discharge, and volume for the monitored hydrographs.
J. Bastian Dost, Oliver Gronz, Markus C. Casper, and Andreas Krein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3501–3519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3501-2020, 2020
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We show the potential to observe the unconfined internal-motion behaviour of single clasts in landslides using a wireless sensor measuring acceleration and rotation. The probe's dimensions are 10 mm × 55 mm. It measures up to 16 g and 2000° s−1 with a 100 Hz sampling rate. From the data, we derive transport mode, velocity, displacement and 3D trajectories of several probes. Results are verified by high-speed image analysis and laser distance measurements.
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3455-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3455-2020, 2020
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We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region in Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to implement the INSPIRE data framework by 2021, but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.
Robert Emberson, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Thomas Stanley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3413–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020, 2020
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Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, 2020
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Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, 2020
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We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, 2020
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Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, 2020
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We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, 2020
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Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analysed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses are considerably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, 2020
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Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Baoqin Lian, Xingang Wang, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2843–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, 2020
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2547–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, 2020
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Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and in-field damage evidence was found.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, 2020
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This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2307–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, 2020
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In the Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early-warning systems might contribute to the mitigation of the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, 2020
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Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
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We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, 2020
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When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, 2020
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We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, 2020
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Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, 2020
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Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, 2020
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We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the
rainfall-induced translational landslides.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, 2020
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The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.
Germán Aguilar, Albert Cabré, Victor Fredes, and Bruno Villela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, 2020
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We have calculated erosion caused by an extreme storm in the Atacama Desert. Erosion distribution depends on the ability of catchments to store sediments in stream networks between storms and generate debris flows during the storm. The order of magnitude of erosion is the same as the erosion rates calculated over the long term, so these storms have a relevant influence on the evolution of these arid fluvial systems.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, 2020
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In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Yu Zou, Zhuping Sheng, and Blanca S. Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 713–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, 2020
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Coseismic landslides often cause loss of life and property damage. Accurately mapping hazards is very important and challenging work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface unloading joint and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is verified using the Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014 and compared with a conventional Newmark analysis using area under the curve analysis.
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Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for...
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