Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 02 Jun 2020
| 02 Jun 2020
Enhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principles
School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Stan Nowak
School of Interactive Arts and Technology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Pascal Haegeli
School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Related authors
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good aggreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences while it remained unclear which data source represented reality best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-420, 2023
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Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real-time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Simon Horton, Patrick Mair, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 239–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The adoption of snowpack models in support of avalanche forecasting has been limited. To promote their operational application, we present a numerical method for processing multivariate snow stratigraphy profiles of mixed data types. Our algorithm enables applications like dynamical grouping and summarizing of model simulations, model evaluation, and data assimilation. By emulating the human analysis process, our approach will allow forecasters to familiarly interact with snowpack simulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
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We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Horton, M. Schirmer, and B. Jamieson
The Cryosphere, 9, 1523–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1523-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1523-2015, 2015
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We investigate how various meteorological and terrain factors affect surface hoar formation in complex terrain. We modelled the distribution of three surface hoar layers with a coupled NWP - snow cover model, and verified the model with field studies. The layers developed in regions and elevation bands with warm moist air, light winds, and cold snow surfaces. Possible avalanche forecasting applications are discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, 2024
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We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good aggreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences while it remained unclear which data source represented reality best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
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The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
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The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-420, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real-time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 16, 3149–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, 2022
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We present an averaging algorithm for multidimensional snow stratigraphy profiles that elicits the predominant snow layering among large numbers of profiles and allows for compiling of informative summary statistics and distributions of snowpack layer properties. This creates new opportunities for presenting and analyzing operational snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting and may inspire new ways of processing profiles and time series in other geophysical contexts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
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Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
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Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pascal Haegeli, Bret Shandro, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 15, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, 2021
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Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Herla, Simon Horton, Patrick Mair, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 239–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The adoption of snowpack models in support of avalanche forecasting has been limited. To promote their operational application, we present a numerical method for processing multivariate snow stratigraphy profiles of mixed data types. Our algorithm enables applications like dynamical grouping and summarizing of model simulations, model evaluation, and data assimilation. By emulating the human analysis process, our approach will allow forecasters to familiarly interact with snowpack simulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2011–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, 2019
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Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between appropriate skiing terrain and avalanche conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing, and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019
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We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bret Shandro and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1141–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While the concept of snow and avalanche climates is widely used to describe the general nature of avalanche hazard, no research has described the hazard character of avalanche climates in detail. We use Canadian avalanche bulletin data that use the conceptual model of avalanche hazard from 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 to identify common hazard situations and calculate their seasonal prevalence. Our results provide detailed insights into the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Horton, M. Schirmer, and B. Jamieson
The Cryosphere, 9, 1523–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1523-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1523-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how various meteorological and terrain factors affect surface hoar formation in complex terrain. We modelled the distribution of three surface hoar layers with a coupled NWP - snow cover model, and verified the model with field studies. The layers developed in regions and elevation bands with warm moist air, light winds, and cold snow surfaces. Possible avalanche forecasting applications are discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
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Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, 2024
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In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results, which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Other as expected, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important as the safety from floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Adelaide Cassia Nardocci, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Michael Jacobson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, 2023
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of the surveys, to help further research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on GIS platforms allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
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Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
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Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
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The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
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This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To...
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