Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation

Abstract. Against the backdrop of increasing climate risks, strengthening the adaptive capacity of citizens is crucial. Yet, the usefulness of the concept of adaptive capacity is currently limited for science and policy, as it is neither clear what exactly constitutes adaptive capacity nor whether capacity translates into adaptation action. Drawing on survey data from 1,571 households in Southern Germany collected in 2022, we use regression analysis to examine the relationship between adaptive capacity indicators and the implementation of pluvial flood risk adaptation measures. Our results confirm a capacity-action gap, as high levels of adaptive capacity do not necessarily translate into household adaptation action. Widely used generic capacity indicators such as income and education are less important for adaptation decisions while specific capacity indicators, such as risk perception, damage experience and motivation, lead to action. We found initial evidence of a nonlinear effect: while a certain stock of financial and human capital is required, additional capital gains do not translate into additional adaptation action. Thus, enhancing the specific capacity of households should be a priority, as generic assets alone will not suffice to cope with climate risk.