Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jul 2019
Research article |
| 26 Jul 2019
| 26 Jul 2019
Effects of horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization on the intensity and structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)
Mien-Tze Kueh
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei,
Taiwan
Wen-Mei Chen
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei,
Taiwan
Yang-Fan Sheng
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei,
Taiwan
Simon C. Lin
Academia Sinica Grid Computing Centre, Institute of Physics, Academia
Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Tso-Ren Wu
Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central
University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan
Eric Yen
Academia Sinica Grid Computing Centre, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Yu-Lin Tsai
Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central
University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei,
Taiwan
Related authors
No articles found.
Chuan-Yao Lin, Wan-Chin Chen, Yi-Yun Chien, Charles C. K. Chou, Chian-Yi Liu, Helmut Ziereis, Hans Schlager, Eric Förster, Florian Obersteiner, Ovid O. Krüger, Bruna A. Holanda, Mira L. Pöhlker, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Birger Bohn, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Benjamin Weyland, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During the EMeRGe campaign in Asia, atmospheric pollutants were measured on board the HALO aircraft. The WRF-Chem model was employed to evaluate the biomass burning (BB) plume transported from Indochina and its impact on the downstream areas. The combination of BB aerosol enhancement with cloud water resulted in a reduction in incoming shortwave radiation at the surface in southern China and the East China Sea, which potentially has significant regional climate implications.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Chuan-Yao Lin, Yang-Fan Sheng, Wan-Chin Chen, Charles C. K. Chou, Yi-Yun Chien, and Wen-Mei Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16893–16910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Taiwan and Hong Kong experience air quality deterioration as typhoons approach. However, the mechanism of the formation of poor air quality may differ and still not be well documented in Taiwan. The interaction between easterly typhoon circulation and Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range resulted in a lee side vortex formation. Simulation results indicated that the lee vortex and land–sea breeze, as well as the boundary layer development, were the key mechanisms.
Tso-Ren Wu, Thi-Hong-Nhi Vuong, Chun-Yu Wang, Chia-Ren Chu, and Chun-Wei Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-126, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Many studies concentrate on mudflow; however, the stratification between the solid and liquid phase inside the mud material has been not considered. This study provides a modified Bi-viscosity model (MBM) to describe the mudslide flow with the stratification effect. The MBM can simulate the initiation of the mudslide, then the development of the slip surface, the flooding process, the velocity ceasing process, and the stoppage of mudflow.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Lei Chen, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Zhe Wang, Kengo Sudo, Yuesi Wang, Yuepeng Pan, Guiqian Tang, Meng Li, Qizhong Wu, Baozhu Ge, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China were conducted in this study using 14 chemical transport model results from MICS-Asia III. All models largely underestimated CO concentrations and showed very poor performance in reproducing the observed monthly variations of NH3 concentrations. Potential factors related to such deficiencies are investigated and discussed in this paper.
Jie Li, Tatsuya Nagashima, Lei Kong, Baozhu Ge, Kazuyo Yamaji, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Qi Fan, Syuichi Itahashi, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zhe Wang, Qizhong Wu, Hajime Akimoto, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12993–13015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated and intercompared 14 CTMs with ozone observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for ASIA Phase III (MICS-Asia III). Potential causes of the discrepancies between model results and observation were investigated by assessing the planetary boundary layer heights, emission fluxes, dry deposition, chemistry and vertical transport among models. Finally, a multi-model estimate of pollution distributions was provided.
Yu-Sheng Sun, Po-Fei Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Ya-Ting Lee, Kuo-Fong Ma, and Tso-Ren Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2081–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2081-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The maximum possible earthquake magnitude is Mw 8.15 with an average slip of 8.25 m in the southernmost portion of the Ryukyu Trench. One hundred slip distributions of the seismic rupture surface were generated by a stochastic slip model. The simulated results demonstrate that the complexity of the rupture plane has a significant influence on the near field for local tsunamis. The propagation of tsunami waves and the peak wave heights largely vary in response to the slip distribution.
Chuan-Yao Lin, Chiung-Jui Su, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Yuko Akimoto, Yang-Fan Sheng, Jr-Chuan Huang, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1809–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the impact of urbanization over northern Taiwan using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with the Noah land-surface model and a modified urban canopy model (WRF-UCM2D). WRF-UCM2D performed much better than the original UCM coupled with WRF (WRF-UCM) at non-urban stations with a low urban fraction during nighttime. The result of this study has crucial implications for assessing the impacts of urbanization on air quality and regional climate.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
The Record-Breaking Precipitation Event of December 2022 in Portugal
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Cited articles
Atkinson, G. D. and Holliday, C. R.: Tropical cyclone minimum sea level
pressure/maximum sustained wind relationship for the western North Pacific,
Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 421–427, 1977.
Bao, J.-W., Gopalakrishnan, S. G., Michelson, S. A., Marks, F. D., and
Montgomery, M. T.: Impact of physics representations in the HWRFX model on
simulated hurricane structure and wind–pressure relationships, Mon. Weather
Rev., 140, 3278–3299, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00332.1, 2012.
Bell, M. M., Montgomery, M. T., and Emanuel, K. A.: Air–sea enthalpy and
momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST, J.
Atmos. Sci., 69, 3197–3222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0276.1, 2012.
Bender, M. A., Knutson, T. R., Tuleya, R. E., Sirutis, J. J., Vecchi, G. A.,
Garner, S. T., and Held, I. M.: Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on
the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, Science, 327, 454–458,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568, 2010.
Braun, S. A. and Tao, W.-K.: Sensitivity of high-resolution simulations of
Hurricane Bob (1991) to planetary boundary layer parameterizations, Mon.
Weather Rev., 128, 3941–3961, 2000.
Brutsaert, W.: A theory for local evaporation (or heat transfer) from rough
and smooth surfaces at ground level, Water Resour. Res., 11, 543–550,
1975a.
Brutsaert, W.: The Roughness Length for Water Vapor, Sensible Heat, and
other Scalars, J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 2028–2031, 1975b.
Brutsaert, W.: Heat and mass transfer to and from surfaces with dense
vegetation or similar permeable roughness, Bound.-Layer Meteor., 16,
365–388, 1979.
Bryan, G. H., Wyngaard, J. C., and Fritsch, J. M.: Resolution requirements
for the simulation of deep moist convection, Mon. Weather Rev., 131,
2394–2416, 2003.
Charnock, H.: Wind stress on a water surface, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
81, 639–640, 1955.
Chen, H. and Zhang, D.-L.: On the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma
(2005). Part II: Convective bursts and the upper-level warm core, J. Atmos.
Sci., 70, 146–162, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-062.1, 2013.
Chen, S., Campbell, T. J., Jin, H., Gabersek, S., Hodur, R. M., and Martin,
P.: Effect of Two-Way Air–Sea Coupling in High and Low Wind Speed Regimes,
Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 3579–3602, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3119.1, 2010.
Chen, S. S., Price, J. F., Zhao, W., Donelan, M. A., and Walsh, E. J.: The
CBLAST-Hurricane program and the next-generation fully coupled
atmosphere-wave-ocean models for hurricane research and prediction, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 311–317, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-3-311, 2007.
Coronel, R., Sawada, M., and Iwasaki, T.: Impacts of Surface Drag Coefficient
and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes on the Structure and Energetics of
Typhoon Megi (2010) during Intensification, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. Ser. II,
94, 55–73, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-004, 2016.
Davis C., Wang, W., Chen, S. S., Chen, Y., Corbosiero, K., DeMaria, M., Dudhia, J., Holland, G., Klemp, J., Michalakes, J., Reeves, H., Rotunno, R., Snyder, C., and Xiao, Q.: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the advanced hurricane WRF model, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1990–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2085.1, 2008.
Denis, B., Cote, J., and Laprise, R.: Spectral decomposition of two
dimensional atmospheric fields on limited-area domains using the discrete
cosine transform (DCT), Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1812–1829, 2002.
Donelan, M. A., Haus, B. K., Reul, N., Plant, W. J., Stiassnie, M., Graber,
H. C., Brown, O. B., and Saltzman, E. S.: On the limiting aerodynamic
roughness of the ocean in very strong winds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18306,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019460, 2004.
Drennan, W. M., Zhang, J. A., French, J. R., McCormick, C., and Black, P.
G.: Turbulent fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer. Part II: Latent heat
flux, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1103–1115, 2007.
Emanuel, K. A.: An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part
I: Steady-state maintenance, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585–604, 1986.
Emanuel, K. A.: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange
coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics, J.
Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969–3976, 1995.
Environmental Modeling Center: The GFS atmospheric model, NCEP Office Note 442, 14 pp., available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/officenotes/newernotes/on442.pdf (last access: 24 July 2019), data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs/ (last access: 20 July 2019), 2003.
Environmental Modeling Center: The Global Forecast System (GFS) – Global Spectral Model (GSM), available at: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/doc.php (last access: 24 July 2019), data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs/ (last access: 20 July 2019), 2016.
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J.
B.: Bulk parameterization of air–sea fluxes: Updates and verification for
the COARE algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591, 2003.
Fierro, A. O., Rogers, R. F., Marks, F. D., and Nolan, D. S.: The impact of
horizontal grid spacing on the microphysical and kinematic structures of
strong tropical cyclones simulated with the WRF-ARW model, Mon. Weather Rev.,
137, 3717–3743, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2946.1, 2009.
French, J. R., Drennan, W. M., Zhang, J. A., and Black, P. G.: Turbulent
fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer. Part I: Momentum flux, J. Atmos.
Sci., 64, 1089–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3887.1, 2007.
Geernaert, G. L., Larsen, S. E., and Hansen, F.: Measurements of wind
stress, heat flux, and turbulence intensity during storm conditions over the
North Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13127–13139, 1987.
Gemmill, W., Katz, B., and Li, X.: Daily real-time, global sea surface temperature – high-resolution analysis: RTG_SST_HR.
NOAA/NCEP. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Office Note Nr. 260, 39 pp.,
available at: https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/papers/tn260/ (last access: 19 July 2019), data available at: ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/history/sst/ (last access: 20 July 2019), 2007.
Gentry, M. S. and Lackmann, G. M.: Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone
structure and intensity to horizontal resolution, Mon. Weather Rev., 138,
688–704, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2976.1, 2010.
Gopalakrishnan, S. G., Marks Jr., F., Zhang, X., Bao, J.-W., Yeh, K.-S., and
Atlas, R.: The experimental HWRF system: A study on the influence of
horizontal resolution on the structure and intensity changes in tropical
cyclones using an idealized framework, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1762–1784,
do:10.1175/2010MWR3535.1, 2011.
Green, B. W. and Zhang, F.: Impacts of air–sea flux parameterizations on the
intensity and structure of tropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 141,
2308–2324, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00274.1, 2013.
Grell, G. A., Dudhia, J., and Stauffer, D. R.: A description of the
fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR
TN-398-1-STR, 117 pp., 1994.
Hawkins, H. F. and Imbembo, S. M.: The structure of a small, intense hurricane—Inez 1966, Mon. Weather Rev., 104, 418–442,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0418:TSOASI>2.0.CO;2, 1976.
Hill, K. A. and Lackmann, G. M.: Analysis of Idealized Tropical Cyclone
Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to
Turbulence Parameterization and Grid Spacing, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 745–765,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2220.1, 2009.
Hong, S.-Y., Dudhia, J., and Chen, S.-H.: A revised approach to ice
microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and
precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 103–120, 2004.
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processe, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S.
A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long–lived greenhouse gases:
Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113,
D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Jarosz, E., Mitchell, D. A., Wang, D. W., and Teague, W. J.: Bottom-up
determination of air–sea momentum exchange under a major tropical cyclone,
Science, 315, 1707–1709, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136466, 2007.
Jiménez, P. A., Dudhia, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J.,
Montávez, J. P., and García-Bustamante, E.: A revised scheme for
the WRF surface layer formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012.
Kain, J.: The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: An update, J. Appl.
Meteor. Climatol., 43, 170–181, 2004.
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: A one–dimensional entraining/detraining
plume model and its application in convective parameterization, J. Atmos.
Sci., 47, 2784–2802, 1990.
Kanada, S. and Wada, A.: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution of the
simulated intensifying rate and inner-core structure of Typhoon Ida, an
extremely intense typhoon, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94A, 181–190,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-037, 2016.
Kanada, S., Wada, A., Nakano, M., and Kato, T.: Effect of planetary boundary
layer schemes on the development of intense tropical cyclones using a
cloud-resolving model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03107,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016582, 2012.
Knaff, J. A. and Zehr, R. M.: Reexamination of tropical cyclone
wind–pressure relationships, Weather Forecast., 22, 71–88,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF965.1, 2007.
Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J., and Neumann, C.
J.: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS):
Unifying tropical cyclone best track data, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91,
363–76, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1, (data available at: ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ibtracs/v03r09/wmo/ (last access: 20 July 2019), 2010.
Knapp, K. R., Knaff, J. A., Sampson, C. R., Riggio, G. M., and Schnapp, A. D.: A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2611–-2631, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00323.1, 2013.
Koba, H., Osano, S., Hagiwara, T., Akashi, S., and Kikuchi, T.: Relationship
between the CI-number and central pressure and maximum wind speed in
typhoons, Geophy. Mag., 44, 15–25, 1991 (in English).
Kueh, M.-T.: Multiformity of the tropical cyclone wind–pressure relationship
in the western North Pacific: Discrepancies among four best-track archives,
Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024015, 2012.
Lander, M., Guard, C., and Camargo, S.: Super Typhoon Haiyan, in: State of
the Climate in 2013, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, S112–S114, 2014.
Large, W. G. and Pond, S.: Open ocean momentum flux measurements in moderate
to strong winds, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 324–336, 1981.
Large, W. G. and Pond, S.: Sensible and latent heat flux measurements over
the ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 464–482, 1982.
Li, F., Song, J., and Li, X.: A preliminary evaluation of the necessity of
using a cumulus parameterization scheme in high-resolution simulations of
Typhoon Haiyan (2013), Nat. Hazards, 92, 647–671,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3218-y, 2018.
Lin, I.-I., Pun, I.-F., and Lien, C.-C.: “Category-6” super typhoon Haiyan in
global warming hiatus: Contribution from subsurface ocean warming, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 41, 8547–8553, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061281, 2014.
Ma, L.-M. and Tan, Z.-M.: Improving the behavior of the cumulus
parameterization for tropical cyclone prediction: Convection trigger, Atmos.
Res., 92, 190–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.022, 2009.
Miyamoto, Y., Kajikawa, Y., Yoshida, R., Yamaura, T., Yashiro, H., and
Tomita, H.: Deep moist atmospheric convection in a subkilometer global
simulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4922–4926, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50944, 2013.
Nolan, D. S., Stern, D. P., and Zhang, J. A.: Evaluation of planetary
boundary layer parameterizations in tropical cyclones by comparison of in
situ observations and high-resolution simulations of Hurricane Isabel
(2003). Part II: Inner-core boundary layer and eyewall structure, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3675–3698, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2786.1, 2009.
On, N., Kim, H. M., and Kim, S.: Effects of Resolution, Cumulus
Parameterization Scheme, and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation
Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System,
Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 623–637,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0081-4, 2018.
Powell, M. D., Vickery, P. J., and Reinhold, T. A.: Reduced drag coefficient
for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones, Nature, 24, 395–419,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01481, 2003.
Richter, D. H., Bohac, R., and Stern, D. P.: An assessment of the flux
profile method for determining air-sea momentum and enthalpy fluxes from
dropsonde data in tropical cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 2665–2682,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0331.1, 2016.
Schiermeier, Q.: Most powerful hurricanes on the rise, Nature,
https://doi.org/10.1038/news.2010.24, 2010.
Schiermeier, Q.: Did climate change cause Typhoon Haiyan?, Nature,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2013.14139, 2013.
Shimada, U., Kubota, H., Yamada, H., Cayanan, E. O., and Hilario, F. D.:
Intensity and Inner-Core Structure of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) near Landfall:
Doppler Radar Analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 583–597,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0120.1, 2018.
Skamarock, W. C.: Evaluating mesoscale NWP models using kinetic energy
spectra, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 3019–3032, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2830.1, 2004.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475 C STR, 113 pp., 2008.
Smith, S. D.: Coefficients for sea surface wind stress, heat flux, and wind
profiles as a function of wind speed and temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 93,
15467–15472, 1988.
Stauffer, D. R. and Seaman, N. L.: Multiscale 4-dimensional data
assimilation, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 33, 416–434, 1994.
Tewari, M., Chen, F., Wang, W., Dudhia, J., LeMone, M. A., Mitchell, K, Gayno, M. E. G., Wegiel, J., and Cuenca, R. H.: Implementation and verification of the unified
NOAH land surface model in the WRF model, 20th Conference on Weather
Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
American Meteorological Society, Seattle, WA, US, available at: https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/techprogram/paper_69061.htm (last access: 19 July 2019), 2004.
Vickers, D., Mahrt, L., and Andreas, E. L.: Estimates of the 10 m neutral sea
surface drag coefficient from aircraft eddy-covariance measurements, J.
Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 301–310, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-0101.1, 2013.
Wang, H. and Wang, Y.: A numerical study of Typhoon Megi (2010). Part I:
Rapid intensification, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 29–48,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00070.1, 2014.
Wu, J.: Wind stress coefficients over sea surface from breeze to
hurricane, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 9704–9706, 1982.
Yu, X. and Lee, T.-Y.: Role of convective parameterization in simulations of
heavy precipitation systems at grey-zone resolutions – case studies,
Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 99–112,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-0001-3, 2011.
Yuter, S. E. and Houze, R. A.: Three-dimensional kinematic and microphysical
evolution of Florida cumulonimbus. Part II: Frequency distributions of
vertical velocity, reflectivity, and differential reflectivity, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 1941–1963, 1995.
Zhang, D.-L. and Chen, H.: Importance of the upper-level warm core in the
rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,
L02806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050578, 2012.
Zhang, J. A., Black, P. G., French, J. R., and Drennan, W. M.: First direct
measurements of enthalpy flux in the hurricane boundary layer: The CBLAST
results, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034374, 2008.
Zhao, B., Qiao, F., Cavaleri, L., Wang, G., Bertotti, L., and Liu, L.:
Sensitivity of typhoon modeling to surface waves and rainfall, J. Geophys.
Res, 122, 1702–1723, 10.1002/2016JC012262, 2017.
Zweers, N. C., Makin, V. K., de Vries, J. W., and Burgers, G.: A sea drag
relation for hurricane wind speeds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21811,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045002, 2010.
Short summary
In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization can exert a large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of the TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.
In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint