Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Luke A. McGuire
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Francis K. Rengers
Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA
Ann M. Youberg
Arizona Geological Survey, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Alexander N. Gorr
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Olivia J. Hoch
Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA
Rebecca Beers
Arizona Geological Survey, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Ryan Porter
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011, USA
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Debris flows are mixtures of mud and rocks that can travel at high speeds across steep landscapes. Here, we propose a new model to describe how landscapes are shaped by debris flow erosion over long timescales. Model results demonstrate that the shapes of channel profiles are sensitive to uplift rate, meaning that it may be possible to use topographic data from steep channel networks to infer how erosion rates vary across a landscape.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
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Wildfires increase flood risk by making it harder for soil to absorb water. We studied how this risk changes over time as the landscape recovers and how it will be affected by more intense rainfall due to climate change. Using a computer model of a burned watershed in Arizona, we found that while the soil's ability to soak up water recovers over a few years, future rainfall is predicted to be so intense that the period of high flood danger will last longer, making severe floods much more common.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
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Fire in steep landscapes increases the potential for debris flows that can develop during intense rainstorms. To explore possible debris flow hazards, we utilize a computational model of the physical processes of debris flow initiation and runout. Such process-based models are computationally intensive and of limited use in rapid hazard assessments. Thus we build statistical surrogate of these physical models to examine how inundation footprints vary with rainfall intensity and time since fire.
Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 219–238, 10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that landscapes with more planar initial conditions tend to have lower mean junction angles. Geomorphic processes on alluvial piedmonts result in especially planar initial conditions, consistent with a correlation between junction angles and the presence/absence of Late Cenozoic alluvial deposits and the constraint imposed by the intersection of planar approximations to the topography upslope from tributary junctions. We caution against using junction angles to infer paleoclimate.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, 10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
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Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, 10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Scott W. McCoy, Odin Marc, William Struble, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1117–1143, 10.5194/esurf-11-1117-2023, 10.5194/esurf-11-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are mixtures of mud and rocks that can travel at high speeds across steep landscapes. Here, we propose a new model to describe how landscapes are shaped by debris flow erosion over long timescales. Model results demonstrate that the shapes of channel profiles are sensitive to uplift rate, meaning that it may be possible to use topographic data from steep channel networks to infer how erosion rates vary across a landscape.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, 10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, and Forest Cannon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376, 10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, 10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
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Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris...
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