Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2022
| 07 Nov 2022
Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of
Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, School of Agricultural
Engineering, College of Agriculture Animal Sciences and Veterinary Medicine,
University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 210, Musanze, Rwanda
Alessia Riveros
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of
Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands
Hellen Wanjala
Planet Labs, PBC, Wilhelminastraat 43A, 2011 VK Haarlem, the
Netherlands
Jaap Schellekens
Planet Labs, PBC, Wilhelminastraat 43A, 2011 VK Haarlem, the
Netherlands
Frederiek Sperna Weiland
Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands
Markus Hrachowitz
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of
Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Thom A. Bogaard
Section Water Resources, Department of Water Management, Faculty of
Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Arthur Depicker, Gerard Govers, Liesbet Jacobs, Benjamin Campforts, Judith Uwihirwe, and Olivier Dewitte
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 445–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how shallow landslide occurrence is impacted by deforestation and rifting in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region (Africa). We developed a new approach to calculate landslide erosion rates based on an inventory compiled in biased © Google Earth imagery. We find that deforestation increases landslide erosion by a factor of 2–8 and for a period of roughly 15 years. However, the exact impact of deforestation depends on the geomorphic context of the landscape (rejuvenated/relict).
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1502, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
On 29 October 2024 Valencia (Spain) was struck by torrential rainfall, triggering devastating floods in this area. In this study, we quantify and describe the spatial and temporal structure of this rainfall event using personal weather stations (PWSs). These PWSs provide near real-time observations at a temporal resolution of ~5 min. This study shows the potential of PWSs for real-time rainfall monitoring and potentially flood early warning systems by complementing dedicated rain gauge networks.
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1703–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The quantification of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is vital for water resources management. The Budyko framework, based on aridity and evaporative indices of a catchment, can be an ideal tool for that. However, recent research highlights deviations of catchments from the expected evaporative index, casting doubt on its reliability. This study quantifies deviations of 2387 catchments, finding them minor and predictable. Integrating these into predictions upholds the framework's efficacy.
Wouter R. Berghuijs, Ross A. Woods, Bailey J. Anderson, Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1319–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water balances of catchments will often strongly depend on their state in the recent past, but such memory effects may persist at annual timescales. We use global data sets to show that annual memory is typically absent in precipitation but strong in terrestrial water stores and also present in evaporation and streamflow (including low flows and floods). Our experiments show that hysteretic models provide behaviour that is consistent with these observed memory behaviours.
Thiago Victor Medeiros do Nascimento, Julia Rudlang, Sebastian Gnann, Jan Seibert, Markus Hrachowitz, and Fabrizio Fenicia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-739, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-sample hydrological studies often overlook the importance of detailed landscape data in explaining river flow variability. Analyzing over 4,000 European catchments, we found that geology becomes a dominant factor—especially for baseflow—when using detailed regional maps. This highlights the need for high-resolution geological data to improve river flow regionalization, particularly in non-monitored areas.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Hatice Türk, Christine Stumpp, Markus Hrachowitz, Karsten Schulz, Peter Strauss, Günter Blöschl, and Michael Stockinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-359, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Using advances in transit time estimation and tracer data, we tested if fast-flow transit times are controlled solely by soil moisture or are also controlled by precipitation intensity. We used soil moisture-dependent and precipitation intensity-conditional transfer functions. We showed that significant portion of event water bypasses the soil matrix through fast flow paths (overland flow, tile drains, preferential flow paths) in dry soil conditions for both low and high-intensity precipitation.
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, Arjan Droste, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rain gauge networks from personal weather stations (PWSs) have a network density 100 times higher than dedicated rain gauge networks in the Netherlands. However, PWSs are prone to several sources of error, as they are generally not installed and maintained according to international guidelines. This study systematically quantifies and describes the uncertainties arising from PWS rainfall estimates. In particular, the focus is on the highest rainfall accumulations.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Hongkai Gao, Markus Hrachowitz, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Fabrizio Fenicia, Qiaojuan Xi, Jianyang Xia, Wei Shao, Ge Sun, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4477–4499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of the root zone is widely used but lacks a precise definition. Its importance in Earth system science is not well elaborated upon. Here, we clarified its definition with several similar terms to bridge the multi-disciplinary gap. We underscore the key role of the root zone in the Earth system, which links the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere. To better represent the root zone, we advocate for a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-centred modelling.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Magali Ponds, Sarah Hanus, Harry Zekollari, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Gerrit Schoups, Roland Kaitna, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-260, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research examines how future climate changes impact root zone storage, a crucial hydrological model parameter. Root zone storage—the soil water accessible to plants—adapts to climate but is often treated as constant in models. We estimated climate-adapted storage for six Austrian Alps catchments. Although storage increased, streamflow projections showed minimal change, indicating that dynamic root zone representation is less critical in humid regions but warrants more study in arid areas.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Marjanne J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods are damaging natural hazard which often occur in the European Alps. High resolution climate model output is combined with high resolution distributed hydrological models to model changes in flash flood frequency and intensity. Results show a similar flash flood frequency for autumn in the future, but a decrease in summer. However, the future discharge simulations indicate an increase in the flash flood severity in both summer and autumn leading to more severe flash flood impacts.
Adriaan L. van Natijne, Thom A. Bogaard, Thomas Zieher, Jan Pfeiffer, and Roderik C. Lindenbergh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3723–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are one of the major weather-related geohazards. To assess their potential impact and design mitigation solutions, a detailed understanding of the slope is required. We tested if the use of machine learning, combined with satellite remote sensing data, would allow us to forecast deformation. Our results on the Vögelsberg landslide, a deep-seated landslide near Innsbruck, Austria, show that the formulation of such a machine learning system is not as straightforward as often hoped for.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, Emanuele Di Carlo, Franco Catalano, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation largely controls land hydrology by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere through roots and is highly variable in space and time. However, current land surface models have limitations in capturing this variability at a global scale, limiting accurate modeling of land hydrology. We found that satellite-based vegetation variability considerably improved modeled land hydrology and therefore has potential to improve climate predictions of, for example, droughts.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Yi Luo, Jiaming Zhang, Zhi Zhou, Juan P. Aguilar-Lopez, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 783–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-783-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experiment and modeling of the hydrological response of desiccation cracks under long-term wetting–drying cycles. We developed a new dynamic dual-permeability model to quantify the dynamic evolution of desiccation cracks and associated preferential flow and moisture distribution. Compared to other models, the dynamic dual-permeability model could describe the experimental data much better, but it also provided an improved description of the underlying physics.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a modelling study to research potential future changes in flash flood occurrence in the European Alps. We use new high-resolution numerical climate simulations, which can simulate the type of local, intense rainstorms which trigger flash floods, combined with high-resolution hydrological modelling. We find that flash floods would become less frequent in summers in our future climate scenario, with little change in autumns. However, the maximal severity would increase in both seasons.
Jan Pfeiffer, Thomas Zieher, Jan Schmieder, Thom Bogaard, Martin Rutzinger, and Christoph Spötl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2219–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The activity of slow-moving deep-seated landslides is commonly governed by pore pressure variations within the shear zone. Groundwater recharge as a consequence of precipitation therefore is a process regulating the activity of landslides. In this context, we present a highly automated geo-statistical approach to spatially assess groundwater recharge controlling the velocity of a deep-seated landslide in Tyrol, Austria.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the ability of non-parametric Bayesian networks to reproduce maximum daily discharge in a given month in a catchment when the remaining hydro-meteorological and catchment attributes are known. We show that a saturated network evaluated in an individual catchment can reproduce statistical characteristics of discharge in about ~ 40 % of the cases, while challenges remain when a saturated network considering all the catchments together is evaluated.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
Markus Hrachowitz, Michael Stockinger, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, Heye Bogena, Andreas Lücke, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4887–4915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 725–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roots of vegetation largely control the Earth's water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere but are not adequately represented in land surface models, causing uncertainties in modeled water fluxes. We replaced the root parameters in an existing model with more realistic ones that account for a climate control on root development and found improved timing of modeled river discharge. Further extension of our approach could improve modeled water fluxes globally.
Sarah Hanus, Markus Hrachowitz, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Miren Vizcaino, and Roland Kaitna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
Arthur Depicker, Gerard Govers, Liesbet Jacobs, Benjamin Campforts, Judith Uwihirwe, and Olivier Dewitte
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 445–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how shallow landslide occurrence is impacted by deforestation and rifting in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region (Africa). We developed a new approach to calculate landslide erosion rates based on an inventory compiled in biased © Google Earth imagery. We find that deforestation increases landslide erosion by a factor of 2–8 and for a period of roughly 15 years. However, the exact impact of deforestation depends on the geomorphic context of the landscape (rejuvenated/relict).
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Rolf Hut, Thanda Thatoe Nwe Win, and Thom Bogaard
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 435–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
GPS drifters that float down rivers are important tools in studying rivers, but they can be expensive. Recently, both GPS receivers and cellular modems have become available at lower prices to tinkering scientists due to the rise of open hardware and the Arduino. We provide detailed instructions on how to build a low-power GPS drifter with local storage and a cellular model that we tested in a fieldwork in Myanmar. These instructions allow fellow geoscientists to recreate the device.
Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the absence of discharge data in ungauged basins, remotely sensed river water level data, i.e. altimetry, may provide valuable information to calibrate hydrological models. This study illustrated that for large rivers in data-scarce regions, river altimetry data from multiple locations combined with GRACE data have the potential to fill this gap when combined with estimates of the river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions.
César Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the isotopic composition of water vapor in the air is a difficult task. The estimation of δ18O and δ2H has to be done carefully, because it is accompanied by a high risk of methodological errors (if it is sampled) or wrong assumptions that can lead to incorrect values (if it is modeled). The aim of this work was to compare available sampling methods for water vapor in the air and estimate their isotopic composition, comparing the results against direct measurements of the sampled air.
Hongkai Gao, Christian Birkel, Markus Hrachowitz, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Chris Soulsby, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 787–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Supported by large-sample ecological observations, a novel, simple and topography-driven runoff generation module (HSC-MCT) was created. The HSC-MCT is calibration-free, and therefore it can be used to predict in ungauged basins, and has great potential to be generalized at the global scale. Also, it allows us to reproduce the variation of saturation areas, which has great potential to be used for broader hydrological, ecological, climatological, and biogeochemical studies.
Laurène Bouaziz, Albrecht Weerts, Jaap Schellekens, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6415–6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify net intercatchment groundwater flows in the Meuse basin in a complementary three-step approach through (1) water budget accounting, (2) testing a set of conceptual hydrological models and (3) evaluating against remote sensing actual evaporation data. We show that net intercatchment groundwater flows can make up as much as 25 % of mean annual precipitation in the headwaters and should therefore be accounted for in conceptual models to prevent overestimating actual evaporation rates.
César~Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The measurement of stable isotopes in water vapor has been improved with the use of laser technologies. Its direct application in the field depends on the availability of infrastructure or the budget of the project. For those cases when it is not possible, we provide an alternative method to sample the air for its later measurement. This method is based on the use of a low-cost polyethylene bag, getting stable measurements with a volume of 450 mL of air reducing the risk of sample deterioration.
Petra Hulsman, Thom A. Bogaard, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5081–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In many river basins, the development of hydrological models is challenged by poor discharge data availability and quality. In contrast, water level data are more reliable, as these are direct measurements and are unprocessed. In this study, an alternative calibration method is presented using water-level time series and the Strickler–Manning formula instead of discharge. This is applied to a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the semi-arid, poorly gauged Mara River basin in Kenya.
Karin Mostbauer, Roland Kaitna, David Prenner, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3493–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to predict. We applied a hydrological model to link not only precipitation, but also snowmelt, antecedent soil moisture, etc. with debris flow initiation in an Alpine watershed in Austria. Our results highlight the value of this more holistic perspective for developing a better understanding of debris flow initiation.
David J. Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Roberto Greco, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of imprecise identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds by perturbing an error-free synthetic dataset. Combined impacts of uncertainty with respect to temporal discretization of data and criteria for singling out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources.
Thom Bogaard and Roberto Greco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment.
Markus Hrachowitz and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Physically based and conceptual models in hydrology are the two endpoints in the spectrum of modelling strategies, mostly differing in their degree of detail in resolving the model domain. Given the limitations both modelling strategies face, we believe that to achieve progress in hydrological modelling, a convergence of these methods is necessary. This would allow us to exploit the respective advantages of the bottom-up and top-down models while limiting their respective uncertainties.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Catchments as meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling
Hubert H. G. Savenije and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The natural environment that we live in is the result of evolution. This does not only apply to ecosystems, but also to the physical environment through which the water flows. This has resulted in the formation of flow patterns that obey sometimes surprisingly simple mathematical laws. Hydrological models should represent the physics of these patterns and should account for the fact that the ecosystem adjusts itself continuously to changing circumstances. Physics-based models are alive!
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
Marie K. M. Charrière and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1175–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper present the results of interviews that were conducted with the developers of apps dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The study investigates the context of their development to determine how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. Results show that consensus is achieved in terms of message but not in terms of visualization. However, progress remains in terms of effectiveness evaluation.
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
W. Shao, T. A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2197–2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix/preferential flow domain.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
O. Fovet, L. Ruiz, M. Hrachowitz, M. Faucheux, and C. Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the annual hysteretic patterns observed between stream flow and water storage in the saturated and unsaturated zones of a hillslope and a riparian zone. We described these signatures using a hysteresis index and then used this to assess conceptual hydrological models. This led us to identify four hydrological periods and a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters and to provide new information about the model performances.
S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
V. J. Cortes Arevalo, M. Charrière, G. Bossi, S. Frigerio, L. Schenato, T. Bogaard, C. Bianchizza, A. Pasuto, and S. Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2681–2698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014, 2014
H. Gao, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Gharari, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1895–1915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, 2014
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, T.-H. Debieche, F. Cervi, V. Marc, and J.-P. Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 181–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2171–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, 2013
T. Euser, H. C. Winsemius, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Uhlenbrook, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, J.-P. Malet, and L. P. H. van Beek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 947–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Landslide activation during deglaciation in a fjord-dominated landscape: observations from southern Alaska (1984–2022)
Brief communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Comparative analysis of μ(I) and Voellmy-type grain flow rheologies in geophysical mass flows: insights from theoretical and real case studies
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow
From rockfall source area identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested on El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)
Brief communication: Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling using bivariate mapping
Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology
A participatory approach to determine the use of road cut slope design guidelines in Nepal to lessen landslides
An integrated method for assessing vulnerability of buildings caused by debris flows in mountainous areas
Identifying unrecognised risks to life from debris flows
Predicting the thickness of shallow landslides in Switzerland using machine learning
Unraveling landslide failure mechanisms with seismic signal analysis for enhanced pre-survey understanding
The Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche 1987, semi-arid Andes, Chile – A holistic revision
Comparison of conditioning factor classification criteria in large-scale statistically based landslide susceptibility models
Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems
Predicting deep-seated landslide displacement on Taiwan's Lushan through the integration of convolutional neural networks and the Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer
Limit analysis of earthquake-induced landslides considering two strength envelopes
The vulnerability of buildings to a large-scale debris flow and outburst flood hazard cascade that occurred on 30 August 2020 in Ganluo, southwest China
Optimizing rainfall-triggered landslide thresholds for daily landslide hazard warning in the Three Gorges Reservoir area
Is higher resolution always better? Open-access DEM comparison for Slope Units delineation and regional landslide prediction
Brief communication: Monitoring impending slope failure with very high-resolution spaceborne synthetic aperture radar
Size scaling of large landslides from incomplete inventories
InSAR-informed in situ monitoring for deep-seated landslides: insights from El Forn (Andorra)
Brief Communication: AI-driven rapid landslides mapping following the 2024 Hualien City Earthquake in Taiwan
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Transformations in Exposure to Debris Flows in Post-Earthquake Sichuan, China
Large-scale assessment of rainfall-induced landslide hazard based on hydrometeorological information: application to Partenio Massif (Italy)
Shaping shallow landslide susceptibility as a function of rainfall events
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2045–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2045-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight glacier-adjacent landslides in Alaska and found that slope movement increased at four sites as the glacier retreated past the landslide area. Movement at other sites may be due to heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little to no motion. We suggest that landslides near waterbodies may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates of water-terminating glaciers and changing water flow in the slope.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, and Nick J. Rosser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1937–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1937-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this study, we show that there is a poor correlation between building damage and deaths from landslides, such that the deadliest landslides do not always destroy the most buildings and vice versa. This has important implications for our management of landslide risk.
Yu Zhuang, Brian W. McArdell, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1901–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1901-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The experimentally based μ(I) rheology, widely used for gravitational mass flows, is reinterpreted as a Voellmy-type relationship to highlight its link to grain flow theory. Through block modeling and case studies, we establish its equivalence to μ(R) rheology. μ(I) models shear thinning but fails to capture acceleration and deceleration processes and deposit structure. Incorporating fluctuation energy in μ(R) improves accuracy, refining mass flow modeling and revealing practical challenges.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1841–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.
Roberto Sarro, Mauro Rossi, Paola Reichenbach, and Rosa María Mateos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1459–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel systematic workflow that integrates source area identification, deterministic runout modelling, the classification of runout outputs to derive susceptibility zonation, and robust procedures for validation and comparison. The proposed approach enables the integration and comparison of different modelling, introducing a robust and consistent workflow/methodology that allows us to derive and verify rockfall susceptibility zonation, considering different steps.
Matthias Schlögl, Anita Graser, Raphael Spiekermann, Jasmin Lampert, and Stefan Steger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Communicating uncertainties is a crucial yet challenging aspect of spatial modelling – especially in applied research, where results inform decisions. In disaster risk reduction, susceptibility maps for natural hazards guide planning and risk assessment, yet their uncertainties are often overlooked. We present a new type of landslide susceptibility map that visualizes both susceptibility and associated uncertainty alongside guidelines for creating such maps using free and open-source software.
Lisa V. Luna, Jacob B. Woodard, Janice L. Bytheway, Gina M. Belair, and Benjamin B. Mirus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-947, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide frequency (how often landslides occur) is needed to assess landslide hazard and risk but has rarely been quantified at near continental scales. Here, we used statistical models to estimate landslide frequency across the United States while addressing gaps in landslide reporting. Our results showed strong variations in landslide frequency that followed topography, earthquake probability, and ecological region and highlighted areas with potential for widespread landsliding.
Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, and Jonathan P. Perkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1229–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People often live and work in these areas, leading to property damage and deaths. Landslide runout may occur on hillslopes or in channels, requiring different modeling approaches. We develop methods to identify potential runout zones and apply these methods to identify susceptible areas for three municipalities in Puerto Rico.
Jonathan Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 949–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study with road engineers aimed to assess how road slope design guidelines in Nepal can be improved. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to a lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We present general recommendations to enhance road slope management, as well as technical recommendations to improve the guidelines.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an integrated method using a combination of a physical vulnerability matrix and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on collected historical data on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study on the Cilan landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the first event of CL consisted of four sliding failures accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The second and third events were minor toppling and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the spatiotemporal variation in landslide evolution is proposed.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with 5 statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing 8 years of data from Taiwan's Lushan, improving early warning and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a 3D limit analysis for seismic stability of soil slopes to address the influence of earthquakes on slope stabilities with nonlinear and linear criteria. Comparison results illustrate that the use of a linear envelope leads to the non-negligible overestimation of steep-slope stability, and this overestimation will be significant with increasing earthquakes. Earthquakes have a smaller influence on slope slip surfaces with a nonlinear envelope than those with a linear envelope.
Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Lorenzo Nava, Alessandro Novellino, Chengyong Fang, Kushanav Bhuyan, Kathryn Leeming, Itahisa Gonzalez Alvarez, Claire Dashwood, Sophie Doward, Rahul Chahel, Emma McAllister, Sansar Raj Meena, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
On April 2, 2024, a Mw 7.4 earthquake hit Taiwan’s eastern coast, causing extensive landslides and damage. We used automated methods combining Earth Observation (EO) data with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to quickly inventory the landslides. This approach identified 7,090 landslides over 75 km2 within 3 hours of acquiring the EO imagery. The study highlights AI’s role in improving landslide detection and understanding earthquake-landslide interactions for better hazard mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found whilst check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, raising exposure during large debris flows and highlights the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Abdullah Abdullah, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Local thresholds for landslide forecasting, combining hydrologic predisposing factors and rainfall features, are developed from a physically based model of a slope. To extend their application to a wide area, uncertainty due to spatial variability of geomorphological and hydrologic variables is introduced. The obtained hydrometeorological thresholds, integrating root zone soil moisture and aquifer water level with rainfall depth, outperform thresholds based on rain intensity and duration.
Micol Fumagalli, Alberto Previati, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni B. Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Shallow landslides are mass movements of limited thickness, mainly triggered by extreme rainfalls, that can pose a serious risk to the population. This study uses statistical methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between shallow landslides and rainfalls, showing that in the studied area shallow landslides are modulated by rainfall but controlled by lithology. A new classification method considering the costs associated with a misclassification of the susceptibility is also proposed.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Cited articles
Adams, B. B. J., Asce, M., Fraser, H. G., and Hanafy, M. S.: Meteorological
data analysis for drainage system design, J. Environ. Eng., 112, 827–848, 1987.
Ashouri, H., Lin Hsu, K., Sorooshian, S., Braithwaite, D. K., Knapp, K. R.,
Cecil, D. L., Nelson, B. R., and Prat, O. P.: Daily Precipitation Climate
Data Record from Multisatellite Observations for Hydrological and Climate
Studies, Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69–84, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00068.1, 2015.
Bhatti, H. A., Rientjes, T., Haile, A. T., Habib, E., and Verhoef, W.:
Evaluation of bias correction method for satellite-based rainfall data,
Sensors, 16, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3390/s16060884, 2016.
Bizimana, H. and Sönmez, O.: Landslide Occurrences in The Hilly Areas of
Rwanda, Their Causes and Protection Measures, Disast. Sci. Eng., 1, 1–7, 2015.
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives
on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation:
proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018.
Bouaziz, L. J. E., Steele-dunne, S. C., and Schellekens, J.: Improved
Understanding of the Link Between Catchment-Scale Vegetation Accessible
Storage and Satellite-Derived Soil Water Index, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026365, 2020.
Broeckx, J., Vanmaercke, M., Duchateau, R., and Poesen, J.: Earth-Science
Reviews A data-based landslide susceptibility map of Africa, Earth-Sci. Rev., 185, 102–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.05.002, 2018.
Calvello, M., Devoli, G., Freeborough, K., Gariano, S. L., Guzzetti, F.,
Stähli, Kirschbaum, D., Nakaya, J., and Robbins, M.: LandAware: a new
international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems, Landslide, 17, 2699–2702, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01548-7, 2020.
Conrad, J. L., Morphew, M. D., Baum, R. L., and Mirus, B. B.: Hydromet: A new
code for automated objective optimization of hydrometeorological thresholds
for landslide initiation, Water, 13, 1752, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131752, 2021.
de Jeu, R. A. M., Holmes, T. R. H., Parinussa, R. M., and Owe, M.: A spatially coherent global soil moisture product with improved temporal resolution, J. Hydrol., 516, 284–296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.015, 2014.
Depicker, A., Jacobs, L., Mboga, N., Van Rompaey, A., Lennert, M., Wolff, E., Kervyn, F., Michellier, C., Dewitte, O., and Govers, G.: population and
forest-cover changes in the Kivu Rift, Nat. Sustain., 4, 920, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00757-9, 2015.
Depicker, A., Jacobs, L., Delvaux, D., Havenith, H. B., Maki Mateso, J. C.,
Govers, G., and Dewitte, O.: The added value of a regional landslide
susceptibility assessment: The western branch of the East African Rift,
Geomorphology, 353, 106886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106886, 2020.
Depicker, A., Jacobs, L., Mboga, N., Smets, B., Van Rompaey, A., Lennert,
M., Wolff, E., Kervyn, F., Michellier, C., Dewitte, O., and Govers, G.:
Historical dynamics of landslide risk from population and forest-cover
changes in the Kivu Rift, Nat. Sustain., 4, 965–974,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00757-9, 2021a.
Depicker, A., Govers, G., Jacobs, L., Campforts, B., Uwihirwe, J., and
Dewitte, O.: Interactions between deforestation, landscape rejuvenation,
and shallow landslides in the North Tanganyika – Kivu rift region, Africa, Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 445–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445, 2021b.
Dewitte, O., Depicker, A., Moeyersons, J., and Dille, A.: Mass Movements in
Tropical Climates, in: 2nd Edn., Elsevier Inc., https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818234-5.00118-8, 2021.
Froude, M. J. and Petley, D. N.: Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004
to 2016, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2161–2181,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018, 2018.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S.,
Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The
climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental
record for monitoring extremes, Scient. Data, 2, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Gariano, S. L. and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides in a changing climate, Earth-Sci. Rev., 162, 227–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EARSCIREV.2016.08.011, 2016.
Glade, T. and Nadim, F.: Early warning systems for natural hazards and risks, Nat. Hazards, 70, 1669–1671, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1000-8, 2014.
Glerum, A., Brune, S., Stamps, D. S. ,and Strecker, M. R.: Victoria continental microplate dynamics controlled by the lithospheric strength distribution of the East African Rift, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16176-x, 2020.
Greco, R., Marino, P., Santonastaso, G. F., and Damiano, E.: Interaction
between perched epikarst aquifer and unsaturated soil cover in the initiation of shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils, Water, 10, 948, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070948, 2018.
Guzzetti, F., Gariano, S. L., Peruccacci, S., Brunetti, M. T., Marchesini,
I., Rossi, M., and Melillo, M.: Geographical landslide early warning systems,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 200, 102973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102973, 2020.
Haque, U., Blum, P., da Silva, P. F., Andersen, P., Pilz, J., Chalov, S. R.,
Malet, J. P., Aufliè, M. J., Andres, N., Poyiadji, E., Lamas, P. C.,
Zhang, W., Peshevski, I., Pétursson, H. G., Kurt, T., Dobrev, N.,
García-Davalillo, J. C., Halkia, M., Ferri, S., Gaprindashvili, G.,
Engström, J., and Keellings, D.: Fatal landslides in Europe, Landslides,
13, 1545–1554, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0689-3, 2016.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Bonavita, M., Dee, D., Dragani, R.,
Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Geer, A., Hogan, R. J., Janisková, H. M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Cristina, P. L., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5
global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hong, M., Kim, J., and Jeong, S.: Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for
landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent
rainfall, Landslides, 15, 523–534, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0892-x, 2017.
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Nelkin, E. J.: The TRMM
multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA), in: Satellite rainfall applications for surface hydrology, Springer, 3–22, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2915-7_1, 2010.
Huffman, G. J., Gsfc, N., Bolvin, D. T., Braithwaite, D., Hsu, K., Joyce,
R., Kidd, C., Nelkin, E. J., Sorooshian, S., and Tan, J.: Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) Version 06 NASA Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG),
NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/302970086_Algorithm_Theoretical_Basis_Document_ATBD_version_44_for_the_NASA_Global_Precipitation_Measurement_GPM_Integrated_Multi-satellitE_Retrievals_for_GPM_I-MERG (last access: 27 April 2022), 2020.
Imhoff, R. O., van Verseveld, W. J., van Osnabrugge, B., and Weerts, A. H.:
Scaling Point-Scale (Pedo) transfer Functions to Seamless Large-Domain Parameter Estimates for High-Resolution Distributed Hydrologic Modeling: An
Example for the Rhine River, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026807, 2020.
Joshi, S., Kumar, K., Joshi, V., and Pande, B.: Rainfall variability and
indices of extreme rainfall-analysis and perception study for two stations
over Central Himalaya, India, Nat. Hazards, 72, 361–374,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1012-4, 2014.
Karssenberg, D.: Land surface process modelling with Python,
http://karssenberg.geo.uu.nl/labsAnswers/ (last access: 15 May 2022), 2014.
Karssenberg, D., Schmitz, O., Salamon, P., de Jong, K., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: A software framework for construction of process-based stochastic spatio-temporal models and data assimilation, Environ. Model. Softw., 25,
489–502, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.10.004, 2010.
Kimani, M. W., Hoedjes, J. C. B., and Su, Z.: An assessment of satellite-derived rainfall products relative to ground observations over
East Africa, Remote Sens., 9, 430, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9050430, 2017.
Kirschbaum, D., Adler, R., Adler, D., Peters-Lidard, C., and Huffman, G.:
Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in
2010 Relative to Previous Years, Hydrometeorology, 3, 1536–1551,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-02.1, 2012.
Kirschbaum, D., Stanley, T., and Zhou, Y.: Spatial and temporal analysis of a
global landslide catalog, Geomorphology, 249, 4–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.016, 2015.
Kirschbaum, D. B., Adler, R., Yang, A. E., Ae, H., Ae, S. H., Lerner-Lam, A., Kirschbaum, D. B., Lerner-Lam, Á. A., Adler, R., Hong, Y., and Hill, S.: A global landslide catalog for hazard applications: method, results, and
limitations, Nat. Hazards, 52, 561–575, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9401-4, 2010.
Marino, P., Peres, D. J., Cancelliere, A., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T. A.:
Soil moisture information can improve shallow landslide forecasting using
the hydrometeorological threshold approach, Landslides, 17, 2041–2054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01420-8, 2020.
Melillo, M., Brunetti, M. T., Peruccacci, S., Gariano, S. L., Roccati, A.,
and Guzzetti, F.: A tool for the automatic calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence, Environ. Model. Softw., 105, 230–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.024, 2018.
Mirus, B., Morphew, M., and Smith, J.: Developing Hydro-Meteorological Thresholds for Shallow Landslide Initiation and Early Warning, Water, 10,
1274, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091274, 2018.
Moeyersons, J.: A possible causal relationship between creep and sliding on
Rwaza Hill, southern Rwanda, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 14, 597–614, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3290140615, 1989.
Monsieurs, E., Kirschbaum, D. B., Tan, J., Maki Mateso, J.-C., Jacobs, L.,
Plisnier, P.-D., Thiery, W., Umutoni, A., Musoni, D., Bibentyo, T. M., Ganza, G. B., Mawe, G. I., Bagalwa, L., Kankurize, C., Michellier, C., Stanley, T., Kervyn, F., Kervyn, M., Demoulin, A., and Dewitte, O.: Evaluating TMPA Rainfall over the Sparsely Gauged East African Rift, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1507–1528, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0103.1, 2018a.
Monsieurs, E., Liesbet, J., Michellier, C., Tchangabo, B. J., Ganza, B. G.,
Bibentyo, M. T., Kervyn, M., Mateso, M. J.-C., Nkurunziza, P., Ndayisenga, A., Buzera, K. C., Nahimana, L., Wim, T., Demoulin, A., Kervyn, M., and Dewitte, O.: Landslide inventory for hazard assessment in a data – poor
context: a regional-scale approach in a tropical African environment,
Landslides, 15, 2195–2209, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1008-y, 2018b.
Monsieurs, E., Dewitte, O., and Demoulin, A.: A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, 2019a.
Monsieurs, E., Dewitte, O., Depicker, A., and Demoulin, A.: Towards a
Transferable Antecedent Rainfall – Susceptibility Threshold Approach for
Landsliding, Water, 11, 2202, https://doi.org/10.3390/W11112202, 2019b.
Mostbauer, K., Kaitna, R., Prenner, D., and Hrachowitz, M.: The temporally
varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow
initiation in a snow-dominated system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22,
3493–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, 2018.
Nsengiyumva, J. B. and Valentino, R.: Predicting landslide susceptibility
and risks using GIS-based machine learning simulations, case of upper
Nyabarongo catchment, Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, 11, 1250–1277,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1785555, 2020.
Nsengiyumva, J. B., Luo, G., Nahayo, L., Huang, X., and Cai, P.: Landslide
susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria evaluation model in
Rwanda, Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health, 15, 243, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15020243, 2018.
Owe, M., de Jeu, R., and Walker, J.: A methodology for surface soil moisture
and vegetation optical depth retrieval using the microwave polarization
difference index, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 39, 1643–1654, https://doi.org/10.1109/36.942542, 2001.
Owe, M., de Jeu, R., and Holmes, T.: Multisensor historical climatology of
satellite-derived global land surface moisture, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 113, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000769, 2008.
Peres, D. J. and Cancelliere, A.: Comparing methods for determining landslide early warning thresholds: potential use of non-triggering rainfall for locations with scarce landslide data availability, Landslides, 18, 3135–3147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01704-7, 2021.
Peres, D. J., Cancelliere, A., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T. A.: Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, 2018.
Peruccacci, S., Brunetti, M. T., Gariano, S. L., Melillo, M., Rossi, M., and
Guzzetti, F.: Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, Geomorphology, 290, 39–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.031, 2017.
Petley, D.: Global patterns of loss of life from landslides, Geology, 40, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33217.1, 2012.
Postance, B. and Hillier, J.: Comparing threshold definition techniques for
rainfall-induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 560, 553–560, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4202, 2017.
Prenner, D., Kaitna, R., Mostbauer, K., and Hrachowitz, M.: The Value of Using Multiple Hydrometeorological Variables to Predict Temporal Debris Flow
Susceptibility in an Alpine Environment, Water Resour. Res., 54, 6822–6843, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022985, 2018.
Prenner, D., Hrachowitz, M., and Kaitna, R.: Trigger characteristics of
torrential flows from high to low alpine regions in Austria, Sci. Total
Environ., 658, 958–972, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.206, 2019.
Rodell, M., Houser, P. R., Gottschalck, J., Cosgrove, B., Radakovich, J.,
Walker, J. P., Lohmann, D., and Toll, D.: The Global Land Data Assimilation System, Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 381–394, 2004.
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H., and Iredell, M.: The NCEP climate forecast system
version 2, J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208, 2014.
Schellekens, J.: WFlow Documentation, OpenStreams, https://buildmedia.readthedocs.org/media/pdf/wflow/latest/wflow.pdf (last access: 5 May 2022), 2021.
Schellekens, J., Euser, T., Winsemius, H., Thiange, C., and Bouaziz, L.:
Openstreams/wflow: Unstable-Master, https://github.com/openstreams/wflow (last access: 5 May 2022), 2019.
Sekaranom, A. B., Suarma, U., and Nurjani, E.: Climate extremes over the
maritime continent and their associations with Madden-Jullian Oscillation,
IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 451, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/451/1/012006, 2020.
Sidle, R. C., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T.: Overview of landslide hydrology,
Water, 11, 11–13, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010148, 2019.
Tank, A., Zwiers, F., and Zhang, X.: Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a
changing climate, World Meteorol. Organ.,
http://202.90.199.118/ID/documents/WCDMP_72_TD_1500_en_1.pdf (last access: 25 March 2022), 2009.
Thomas, M. A., Collins, B. D., and Mirus, B. B.: Assessing the Feasibility of
Satellite-Based Thresholds for Hydrologically Driven Landsliding, Water
Resour. Res., 55, 9006–9023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025577, 2019.
Thomas, M. A., Mirus, B. B., and Smith, J. B.: Hillslopes in humid-tropical
climates aren't always wet: Implications for hydrologic response and landslide initiation in Puerto Rico, Hydrol. Process., 34, 4307–4318, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13885, 2020.
Uwihirwe, J.: Data underlying the research of Integration of observed and model derived groundwater levels in landslide threshold models in Rwanda, TU Delft [data set], https://doi.org/10.4121/15040446.v1, 2021.
Uwihirwe, J., Hrachowitz, M., and Bogaard, T. A.: Landslide precipitation
thresholds in Rwanda, Landslides, 17, 2469–2481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01457-9, 2020.
Uwihirwe, J., Hrachowitz, M., and Bogaard, T.: Integration of observed and model-derived groundwater levels in landslide threshold models in Rwanda, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022.
Valentino, R., Sobio, Y., Mizero, J., and Nsengiyumva, F.: Unstable road cut
slopes and design of retaining structures in the Rwandan context, Arab. J.
Geosci., 14, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07819-4, 2021.
Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012.
Wang, S., Zhang, K., van Beek, L. P. H., Tian, X., and Bogaard, T. A.: Physically-based landslide prediction over a large region: Scaling low-resolution hydrological model results for high-resolution slope stability assessment, Environ. Model. Softw., 1675, 104607, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104607, 2019.
Zhao, B., Dai, Q., Han, D., Zhang, J., Zhuo, L., and Berti, M.: Application
of hydrological model simulations in landslide predictions, Landslides,
17, 877–891, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01296-3, 2020.
Zhuo, L., Dai, Q., Han, D., Chen, N., Zhao, B., and Berti, M.: Evaluation of
Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture for Landslide Hazard Assessment, IEEE J. Select. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens., 12, 162–173,
https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2018.2883361, 2019.
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint