Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 19 Jul 2022
| 19 Jul 2022
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Julius Schlumberger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Steinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Christian Ferrarin
ISMAR – Marine Science Institute, CNR – National Research Council of Italy, Castello 2737/F, 30122, Venice, Italy
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Steinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Steinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
JBA Consulting, St Philip's Courtyard, B46 3AD, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Alessandro Antonini
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Steinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Sandra Fatorić
Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 134, 2628 BL Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Christian Ferrarin, Debora Bellafiore, Alejandro Paladio Hernandez, Irina Dinu, and Adrian Stanica
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-606, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a hydrodynamic model to the entire Danube Delta region consisting of the river network, coastal lagoons and part of the prodelta coastal sea. The model was applied to investigate the water distribution among the river branches, the dynamics of the coastal sea in front of the delta, the renewal capacity of the lagoons, the processes regulating the water exchange among the different water bodies and the potential impacts of lagoon-sea reconnection solutions.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Hanqing Xu, Elisa Ragno, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jun Wang, Jeremy D. Bricker, Zhan Tian, and Laixiang Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3919–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A coupled statistical–hydrodynamic model framework is employed to quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of compound flood hazards to the relative timing of peak storm surges and rainfall. The findings reveal that the timing difference between these two factors significantly affects flood inundation depth and extent. The most severe inundation occurs when rainfall precedes the storm surge peak by 2 h.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4227–4246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To overcome the computational cost of numerical models, we propose a deep-learning approach inspired by hydraulic models that can simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of floods. We show that the model can rapidly predict dike breach floods over different topographies and breach locations, with limited use of ground-truth data.
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6899–6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Georg Umgiesser, Andrea Bonometto, and Elisa Coraci
Ocean Sci., 19, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses a hydrodynamic model which assimilates in situ data to reproduce tides, surges, and seiches in the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we study the periods of the barotropic modes of the Mediterranean and Adriatic basins. This research aims to improve the forecasting and reanalysis for operational warning and climatological studies. It aims also to reach a better knowledge of these sea level components in this area.
Manuel Aghito, Loris Calgaro, Knut-Frode Dagestad, Christian Ferrarin, Antonio Marcomini, Øyvind Breivik, and Lars Robert Hole
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2477–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The newly developed ChemicalDrift model can simulate the transport and fate of chemicals in the ocean and in coastal regions. The model combines ocean physics, including transport due to currents, turbulence due to surface winds and the sinking of particles to the sea floor, with ocean chemistry, such as the partitioning, the degradation and the evaporation of chemicals. The model will be utilized for risk assessment of ocean and sea-floor contamination from pollutants emitted from shipping.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastian Nicolaas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4345–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods have been increasingly used in flood management to improve traditional techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building deep learning models that can (i) generalize across multiple scenarios, (ii) account for complex interactions, and (iii) perform probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in deep learning to flood mapping.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastian Nicolaas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-614, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Deep Learning methods have been increasingly used in flood mapping as an alternative to traditional modeling techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building Deep Learning models that can generalize across multiple scenarios, account for complex interactions, and provide probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in Deep Learning.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The problem of the optimization of ocean monitoring networks is tackled through the implementation of data assimilation techniques in a numerical model. The methodology has been applied to the tide gauge network in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy). The data assimilation methods allow identifying the minimum number of stations and their distribution that correctly represent the lagoon's dynamics. The methodology is easily exportable to other environments and can be extended to other variables.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Maartje Godfroy, Antonia Sebastian, and Bas Kolen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1073–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
An analysis was made of the loss of life directly caused by Hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred directly due to the event. Most of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area, which was most severely affected by extreme rainfall and heavy flooding. The majority of fatalities in this area were recovered outside the designated 100- and 500-year flood zones. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %), particularly in and around vehicles.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards affect areas with various population density, economic production value and preparedness. This database will help to assess the impact of hazards in Europe in a long-term perspective. It contains data on losses, dates and location of 1564 floods from 1870–2016 in 37 countries. For the same area and timeframe, land use, population and asset value were reconstructed. Combining both data sets, one can correct the amount of losses from past events for demographic and economic growth.
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1267–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, 2017
Georg Umgiesser, Petras Zemlys, Ali Erturk, Arturas Razinkova-Baziukas, Jovita Mėžinė, and Christian Ferrarin
Ocean Sci., 12, 391–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores the importance of physical forcing on the exchange mechanisms and the renewal time in the Curonian Lagoon over 10 years. The influence of ice cover on the exchange rates has been explored. Finally, the influence of water level fluctuations and river discharge has been studied. It has been found that ice cover is surprisingly not very important for changes in renewal time. The single most important factor is river discharge.
A. Miller, S. N. Jonkman, and M. Van Ledden
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 59–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-59-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-59-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, New Orleans’ hurricane protection was improved to withstand a 1/100 per year hurricane. This paper quantifies the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria, results indicate the risk to life is significant. Results and methods of this study can inform future flood protection management and risk communication.
P. Zemlys, C. Ferrarin, G. Umgiesser, S. Gulbinskas, and D. Bellafiore
Ocean Sci., 9, 573–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, 2013
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Cited articles
Ahn, J., Na, Y., and Park, S W.: Development of Two-Dimensional Inundation
Modelling Process using MIKE21 Model, KSCE J. Civ. Eng., 23, 3968–3977, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-019-1586-9, 2019. a, b
Amadio, M., Mysiak, J., Carrera, L., and Koks, E.: Improving flood damage
assessment models in Italy, Nat. Hazards, 82, 2075–2088,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2286-0, 2016. a
Aqua Grande: AquaGranda – A Digital Community Memory, https://www.aquagrandainvenice.it/en/about (last access: 12 May 2021), 2020. a
ArcGis: Map Venice in 2D and 3D, https://learn.arcgis.com/en/projects/map-venice-in-2d-and-3d/ (last access: 8 April 2021), 2020. a
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.:
Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling
and census data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1375–1391,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1375-2013, 2013. a
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.:
Flood risk assessment in art cities: the exemplary case of Florence (Italy),
J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, S616–S631, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12226, 2018a. a, b, c, d
Arrighi, C., Rossi, L., Trasforini, E., Rudari, R., Ferraris, L., Brugioni, M., Franceschini, S., and Castelli, F.: Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform, J. Environ. Manage., 207, 92–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.017, 2018b. a
Battistin, D. and Canestrelli, P.: 1872–2004: la serie storica delle maree a
Venezia, Instituzione Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, VEA0695159, https://binp.regione.veneto.it/SebinaOpac/resource/18722004-la-serie-storica-delle-maree-a-venezia/VIA1614330# (last access: 15 July 2022), 2006. a
Berchum, E. C., Mobley, W., Jonkman, S. N., Timmermans, J. S., Kwakkel, J. H., and Brody, S. D.: Evaluation of flood risk reduction strategies through
combinations of interventions, J. Flood Risk Manage., 12, e12506, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12506, 2019. a
Bryant, K. and Akbar, M.: An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 4, 65–90, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4030058, 2016. a
Caporin, M. and Fontini, F.: The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises, 20 p.,
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2397933, 2014. a, b
Cardona, O.-D., van Aalst, M. K., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., McGregor, G.,
Perez, R., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, E. L. F., Tan Sinh, B., Décamps, H., Keim, M., Davis, I., Ebi, K. L., Lavell, A., Mechler, R., Murray, V., Pelling, M., Pohl, J., Smith, A.-O., and Thomalla, F.: Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 65–108, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.005, 2012. a
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Chiggiato, J., Davolio, S., Ferrarin, C., Magnusson, L., Papa, A., Pezzutto, P., Pomaro, A., and Umgiesser, G.: The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy – An exceptional event and its modeling, Prog. Oceanogr., 178, 102178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102178, 2019. a
Cavallaro, L., Iuppa, C., and Foti, E.: Effect of Partial Use of Venice Flood
Barriers, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 5, 58, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5040058, 2017. a, b, c
Cellerino, R., Giancola, L., and Anghinelli, S.: Venezia atlantide: L'impatto
economico delle acque alte, in: vol. 80 of Economia, Sezione 5, Ricerche di
economia applicata, Angeli, Milano, 1998. a
City of Venice: Città di Venezia | Comune di Venezia – Portale dei
servizi, https://portale.comune.venezia.it/ (last access: 28 March 2021), 2000. a
City of Venice: Sistema Informativo Territoriale, https://geoportale.comune.venezia.it/Html5Viewer/index.html?viewer=GeoPortale.Geoportale&LOCALE=IT-it, last access: 5 July 2021. a
Colamussi, A.: Venice high water barriers problems analysis and design
approach, in: Proceedings of the Short Course on Design and Reliability of
Coastal Structures, Venice, 645–667,
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1007.3969&rep=rep1&type=pdf (last access: 4 April 2021), 1992. a
Commune Venezia: Dati urbanistica, https://portale.comune.venezia.it/content/dati-urbanistica (last access: 04 April, 2021), 2014. a
Comune di Venezia: Rischio Idraulico,
https://www.comune.venezia.it/it/content/rischio-idraulico (last access date: 15 June, 2021), 2016. a
D'Alpaos, L. and Defina, A.: Mathematical modeling of tidal hydrodynamics in
shallow lagoons: A review of open issues and applications to the Venice lagoon, Comput. Geosci., 33, 476–496, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2006.07.009, 2007. a
Diaz Loaiza, M. A., Bricker, J. D., Meynadier, R., Duong, T. M., Ranasinghe,
R., and Jonkman, S. N.: Development of damage curves for buildings near La
Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic
simulations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022. a
Drdácký, M. F.: Flood Damage to Historic Buildings and Structures,
J. Perform. Construct. Facil., 24, 439–445, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000065, 2010. a, b
EMODnet: EMODnet Digital Bathymetry (DTM) – European Union Open Data Portal,
https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/EMODnet_bathymetry (last access: 12 February 2021), 2018. a
European Commission: EUR-Lex – 32007L0060 – EN – EUR-Lex,
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2007/60/oj (last access: 18 October 2021), 2007. a
Fatorić, S. and Seekamp, E.: A measurement framework to increase
transparency in historic preservation decision-making under changing climate
conditions, J. Cult. Herit., 30, 168–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2017.08.006, 2018. a
Ferrarin, C. and Umgiesser, G.: Hydrodynamic modeling of a coastal lagoon: The Cabras lagoon in Sardinia, Italy, Ecol. Model., 188, 340–357,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.061, 2005. a
Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Umgiesser, G., Bellafiore, D., and Amos, C. L.:
Modelling fluxes of water and sediment between Venice Lagoon and the sea,
Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 904–914, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.08.014, 2010. a
Ferrarin, C., Tomasin, A., Bajo, M., Petrizzo, A., and Umgiesser, G.: Tidal
changes in a heavily modified coastal wetland, Cont. Shelf Res., 101, 22–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.04.002, 2015. a, b
Ferrarin, C., Bajo, M., Benetazzo, A., Cavaleri, L., Chiggiato, J., Davison,
S., Davolio, S., Lionello, P., Orlić, M., and Umgiesser, G.: Local and
large-scale controls of the exceptional Venice floods of November 2019,
Prog. Oceanogr., 102628, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102628, 2021. a, b
Fontini, F., Umgiesser, G., and Vergano, L.: The Role of Ambiguity in the
Evaluation of the Net Benefits of the MOSE System in the Venice Lagoon,
“Marco Fanno” Working Papers, 69, 1964–1972, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.05.008, 2008. a, b
Gallien, T. W., Sanders, B. F., and Flick, R. E.: Urban coastal flood
prediction: Integrating wave overtopping, flood defenses and drainage, Coast. Eng., 91, 18–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.007, 2014. a
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schröter, K.: A
Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking, PLOS
ONE, 11, e0159791, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016. a, b
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal
flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014. a
Hudson, P., Botzen, W. W., Feyen, L., and Aerts, J. C.: Incentivising flood
risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums: Trade-offs between
affordability and risk reduction, Ecol. Econ., 125, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.01.015, 2016. a
Huijbregts, Z., van Schijndel, J. W. M., Schellen, H. L., and Blades, N.:
Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings, J. Build. Phys., 38, 170–187, https://doi.org/10.1177/1744259114532613, 2014. a, b
IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A.,
Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, In press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 13 March 2022), 2021. a
Istituto Superiore per la Protezione
e la Ricerca Ambientale: Le stazioni meteo-mareografiche, https://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/rete-meteo-mareografica, last access: 18 May 2021. a
ISTAT: Basi territoriali e variabili censuarie,
https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/104317 (last access: 5 June 2021), 2020. a
Jordà, G., Gomis, D., and Marcos, M.: Comment on “Storm surge frequency
reduction in Venice under climate change” by Troccoli et al, Climatic Change, 113, 1081–1087, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0349-5, 2012. a
Kelman, I. and Spence, R.: An overview of flood actions on buildings, Eng. Geol., 73, 297–309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.010, 2004. a
Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Thieken, A. H., Lindquist, E., Wagner, K., and Merz, B.: Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany, Reg. Environ. Change, 11, 59–71,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0119-3, 2011. a
Kreibich, H., Bubeck, P., van Vliet, M., and de Moel, H.: A review of
damage-reducing measures to manage fluvial flood risks in a changing climate,
Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change, 20, 967–989, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9629-5, 2015. a
Lionello, P., Barriopedro, D., Ferrarin, C., Nicholls, R. J., Orlić, M.,
Raicich, F., Reale, M., Umgiesser, G., Vousdoukas, M., and Zanchettin, D.:
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future
evolution (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021. a
Liu, X. J., Zhong, D. H., Tong, D. W., Zhou, Z. Y., Ao, X. F., and Li, W. Q.:
Dynamic visualisation of storm surge flood routing based on three-dimensional
numerical simulation, J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, S729–S749, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12252, 2018. a
López-Marrero, T.: An integrative approach to study and promote natural
hazards adaptive capacity: a case study of two flood-prone communities in
Puerto Rico, Geogr. J., 176, 150–163, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2010.00353.x, 2010. a
Madricardo, F., Foglini, F., Kruss, A., Ferrarin, C., Pizzeghello, N. M.,
Murri, C., Rossi, M., Bajo, M., Bellafiore, D., Campiani, E., Fogarin, S.,
Grande, V., Janowski, L., Keppel, E., Leidi, E., Lorenzetti, G., Maicu, F.,
Maselli, V., Mercorella, A., Montereale Gavazzi, G., Minuzzo, T., Pellegrini, C., Petrizzo, A., Prampolini, M., Remia, A., Rizzetto, F., Rovere, M., Sarretta, A., Sigovini, M., Sinapi, L., Umgiesser, G., and Trincardi, F.: High resolution multibeam and hydrodynamic datasets of tidal channels and inlets of the Venice Lagoon, Scient. Data, 4, 170121,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.121, 2017. a, b
Martyr-Koller, R. C., Kernkamp, H., van Dam, A., van der Wegen, M., Lucas, L. V., Knowles, N., Jaffe, B., and Fregoso, T. A.: Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, Estuarine, Coast. Shelf Sci., 192, 86–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2017.04.024, 2017. a
Međugorac, I., Pasarić, M., and Güttler, I.: Will the wind
associated with the Adriatic storm surges change in future climate?,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 143, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03379-x, 2020. a
Merz, B. and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds, Nat.
Hazards, 51, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9452-6, 2009. a, b, c, d
Molinari, D. and Scorzini, A. R.: On the Influence of Input Data Quality to
Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model, Water, 9, 688,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090688, 2017. a
Molinari, D., Scorzini, A. R., Arrighi, C., Carisi, F., Castelli, F.,
Domeneghetti, A., Gallazzi, A., Galliani, M., Grelot, F., Kellermann, P.,
Kreibich, H., Mohor, G. S., Mosimann, M., Natho, S., Richert, C., Schroeter,
K., Thieken, A. H., Zischg, A. P., and Ballio, F.: Are flood damage models
converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Molinaroli, E., Guerzoni, S., and Suman, D.: Adaptations to Sea Level Rise: A
Tale of Two Cities – Venice and Miami, MarXiv, https://doi.org/10.31230/osf.io/73a25, 2018. a, b
Mooyaart, L. F. and Jonkman, S. N.: Overview and Design Considerations of Storm Surge Barriers, J. Waterway Port, Coast. Ocean Eng., 143, 06017001, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000383, 2017. a
Morucci, S., Coraci, E., Crosato, F., and Ferla, M.: Extreme events in Venice
and in the North Adriatic Sea: 28–29 October 2018, Rendiconti Lincei, Scienze Fisiche e Naturali, 31, 113–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-020-00882-1,
2020. a, b
Nunes, P. A. L. D., Breil, M., and Gambarelli, G.: Economic Valuation of on
Site Material Damages of High Water on Economic Activities based in the City
of Venice: Results from a Dose-Response-Expert-Based Valuation Approach,
Social Science Research Network, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.702965, 2005. a, b
Patt, H. and Jüpner, R., eds.: Hochwasser-Handbuch: Auswirkungen und
Schutz, in: 2. aufl. 2013, neu bearb. Edn., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-28191-4, 2013. a
Penning-Rowsell, E., Johnson, C., Tunstall, S., Tapsell, S., Morris, J.,
Chatterton, J., and Green, C.: The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk
Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques, Middlesex University Press, ISBN 1904750516, 2005. a
Regione del Veneto: Prezzario regionale on-line 2019, https://www.regione.veneto.it/web/lavori-pubblici/prezzario-online-2019 (last access: 20 June 2021), 2019. a
Roland, A., Cucco, A., Ferrarin, C., Hsu, T.-W., Liau, J.-M., Ou, S.-H.,
Umgiesser, G., and Zanke, U.: On the development and verification of a 2-D coupled wave-current model on unstructured meshes, J. Mar. Syst., 78, S244–S254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.026, 2009. a
Sai, H. A., Tabata, T., Hiramatsu, K., Harada, M., and Luong, N. C.: An optimal scenario for the emergency solution to protect Hanoi Capital from the Red River floodwater using Van Coc Lake, J. Flood Risk Manage., 13, 12661-1-20, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12661, 2020. a
Sarretta, A., Pillon, S., Molinaroli, E., Guerzoni, S., and Fontolan, G.:
Sediment budget in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 934–949, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CSR.2009.07.002, 2010. a
Schlumberger, J., Ferrarin, C., Jonkman, S., Diaz Loaiza, S.N., Antonini, A., Fatoric, S.: Outputfiles and processing codes to produce the results of this paper, OneDrive [code] and [data set], https://1drv.ms/u/s!AujDMT3F11JwgpEoTj2zfvrJqDcOdA?e=dY2c6O (last access: 28 May 2022), 2021. a
Smith, S. D. and Banke, E. G.: Variation of the sea surface drag coefficient
with wind speed, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 101, 665–673, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710142920, 1975. a
Tambroni, N. and Seminara, G.: Are inlets responsible for the morphological
degradation of Venice Lagoon?, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 111, 13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JF000334, 2006. a
Teng, J., Jakeman, A. J., Vaze, J., Croke, B., Dutta, D., and Kim, S.: Flood
inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty
analysis, Environ. Model. Softw., 90, 201–216,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.006, 2017. a
Thieken, A., Piroth, K., Schwarz, J., Schwarze, R., and Müller, M.: Methods for the evaluation of direct and indirect flood losses, in: 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence:4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259273112_Methods_for_the_evaluation_of_direct_and_indirect_flood_losses, (last access: 13 December 2021), 2022. a
Tiggeloven, T., de Moel, H., Winsemius, H. C., Eilander, D., Erkens, G.,
Gebremedhin, E., Diaz Loaiza, A., Kuzma, S., Luo, T., Iceland, C., Bouwman,
A., van Huijstee, J., Ligtvoet, W., and Ward, P. J.: Global-scale
benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk
drivers using structural measures, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020. a
Tognin, D., Finotello, A., D'Alpaos, A., Viero, D. P., Pivato, M., Mel, R. A., Defina, A., Bertuzzo, E., Marani, M., and Carniello, L.: Loss of geomorphic diversity in shallow tidal embayments promoted by storm-surge barriers, Sci. Adv., 8, eabm8446, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm8446, 2022. a
Umgiesser, G.: The impact of operating the mobile barriers in Venice (MOSE)
under climate change, J. Nat. Conserv., 54, 125783, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2019.125783, 2020. a, b
Umgiesser, G. and Matticchio, B.: Simulating the mobile barrier (MOSE)
operation in the Venice Lagoon, Italy: global sea level rise and its implication for navigation, Ocean Dynam., 56, 320–332, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-006-0071-4, 2006. a, b, c, d
Umgiesser, G., Canu, D. M., Cucco, A., and Solidoro, C.: A finite element model for the Venice Lagoon. Development, set up, calibration and validation,
J. Mar. Syst., 51, 123–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.05.009, 2004. a
Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Lionello, P., Zanchettin, D., Papa, A., Tosoni, A., Ferla, M., Coraci, E., Morucci, S., Crosato, F.,
Bonometto, A., Valentini, A., Orlić, M., Haigh, I. D., Nielsen, J. W.,
Bertin, X., Fortunato, A. B., Pérez Gómez, B., Alvarez Fanjul, E., Paradis, D., Jourdan, D., Pasquet, A., Mourre, B., Tintoré, J., and
Nicholls, R. J.: The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and
uncertainty (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d
Vergano, L. and Nunes, P. A. L. D.: Analysis and evaluation of ecosystem
resilience: an economic perspective with an application to the Venice lagoon,
Biodivers. Conserv., 16, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-006-9085-y, 2007. a
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Hinkel, J., Ward, P. J., Mongelli, I.,
Ciscar, J.-C., and Feyen, L.: Economic motivation for raising coastal flood
defenses in Europe, Nat. Commun., 11, 2119, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3, 2020. a
Vrancken, J., van den Berg, J., and Dos Santos Soares, M.: Human factors in system reliability: lessons learnt from the Maeslant storm surge barrier in
The Netherlands, Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct., 4, 418–429, 2008. a
Wang, J.-J.: Flood risk maps to cultural heritage: Measures and process, J. Cult. Herit., 16, 210–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2014.03.002, 2015. a
Xing, Y., Liang, Q., Wang, G., Ming, X., and Xia, X.: City-scale hydrodynamic
modelling of urban flash floods: the issues of scale and resolution, Nat.
Hazards, 96, 473–496, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3553-z, 2019. a, b, c
Yin, J., Jonkman, S., Lin, N., Yu, D., Aerts, J., Wilby, R., Pan, M., Wood, E., Bricker, J., Ke, Q., Zeng, Z., Zhao, Q., Ge, J., and Wang, J.: Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?, Earth's Future, 8,
e2020EF00161, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001614, 2020. a
Zampato, L., Bajo, M., Canestrelli, P., and Umgiesser, G.: Storm surge
modelling in Venice: two years of operational results, J. Operat. Oceanogr., 9, s46–s57, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1118804, 2016. a, b
Zanchettin, D., Bruni, S., Raicich, F., Lionello, P., Adloff, F., Androsov, A., Antonioli, F., Artale, V., Carminati, E., Ferrarin, C., Fofonova, V.,
Nicholls, R. J., Rubinetti, S., Rubino, A., Sannino, G., Spada, G., Thiéblemont, R., Tsimplis, M., Umgiesser, G., Vignudelli, S., Wöppelmann, G., and Zerbini, S.: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and
future trends (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021. a, b
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint