Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article: Risk management framework of environmental hazards and extremes in Mediterranean ecosystems
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, National and
Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Nicolas R. Dalezios
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Ioannis N. Faraslis
Department of Environment, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Kostas Mitrakopoulos
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Anna Blanta
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Marios Spiliotopoulos
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Stavros Sakellariou
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Pantelis Sidiropoulos
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Ana M. Tarquis
CEIGRAM – Department of Agricultural Engineering, Technical
University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Related authors
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Panagiotis T. Nastos and Nicolas R. Dalezios
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1259–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, 2016
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, 2015
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014
I. T. Matsangouras, I. Pytharoulis, and P. T. Nastos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, 2014
Juan J. Martin-Sotoca, Ernesto Sanz, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Andrés F. Almeida-Ñauñay, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This work includes vegetation (VCI) and water content index (WCI) series from two semiarid rangeland areas in Spain. Based on then, a Z-score for both was calculated to use it as an anomaly index. In this way, we associated negative anomalies with drought episodes. Then, we study the relations of these negative anomalies to see if it is possible to use WCI as an alarm of agronomic drought (VCI negative anomaly). The description of the behaviour of both areas and their comparison are made.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Rubén Moratiel, Raquel Bravo, Antonio Saa, Ana M. Tarquis, and Javier Almorox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation data are not readily available. In this study we used, for the estimation of ETo, seven models against Penman–Monteith FAO 56 with temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial perspective over Duero basin (Spain). The results of the tested models can be useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management under the limitation of agrometeorological data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carmelo Alonso, Ana M. Tarquis, Ignacio Zúñiga, and Rosa M. Benito
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
NDVI and EVI vegetation indexes, estimated from satellite images, can been used to estimate root zone soil moisture. However, depending on the spatial and radiometric resolution of the sensors used, estimations could change. In this work, images taken by satellites IKONOS-2 and LANDSAT-7 of the same location are compared on the four bands involved in these vegetation indexes. The results show that spatial resolution has a similar scaling effect in the four bands, but not radiometric resolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ana M. Tarquis, María Teresa Castellanos, Maria Carmen Cartagena, Augusto Arce, Francisco Ribas, María Jesús Cabello, Juan López de Herrera, and Nigel R. A. Bird
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Melon crop got different levels of N that constituted a contribution to the variation of soil N at mainly larger scales. During its development a proportion of the N was taken up, adding a second factor of variability at smaller scales. After the melon harvest, the wheat was sown across the plots and harvested at the end of the season. Wheat was used as a N sink crop and allowed us to evaluate the soil N residual. Multiscale and relative entropy were applied to study N scale dependencies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Panagiotis T. Nastos and Nicolas R. Dalezios
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1259–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, 2016
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, 2015
N. R. Dalezios, A. Blanta, N. V. Spyropoulos, and A. M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, 2014
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014
I. T. Matsangouras, I. Pytharoulis, and P. T. Nastos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, 2014
P. Cely, A. M. Tarquis, J. Paz-Ferreiro, A. Méndez, and G. Gascó
Solid Earth, 5, 585–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, 2014
A. Matulka, P. López, J. M. Redondo, and A. Tarquis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: The Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Assessment of windstorm-damage relations in the complex terrain of Norway
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
FOREWARNS: Development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to demonstrate long-term fluctuations in the number, gender and age of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters and falls on ice or snow in relation to selected meteorological, historical and socioeconomic factors, strongly influencing changes in numbers and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of human lives.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years, but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage/no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 has been truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. Satellite All-Sky Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over Northern England to show that this confidence is justified, and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2)The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Akhtar, N., Brauch, J., Dobler, A., Béranger, K., and Ahrens, B.: Medicanes in an ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2189–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2189-2014, 2014.
Alexakis, D. D., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Agapiou, A., Themistocleous, K., Tsanis, I. K., Michaelides, S., Pashiardis, S., Demetriou, C., Aristeidou, K., Retalis, A., Tymvios, F., and Hadjimitsis, D. G.: GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use change impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias basin in Cyprus, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-413-2014, 2014.
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F.,
Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K. M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and
Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in Revadekar, J., Griffiths,
G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M.,
Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and
García-Herrera, R.: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature
Record Map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Benhamrouche, A., Boucherf, D., Hamadache, R., Bendahmane, L., Martin-Vide, J., and Teixeira Nery, J.: Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 617–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-617-2015, 2015.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei,
C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Current and future
extreme climatic events in Europe: observations and modeling studies conducted within the EU PRUDENCE project, Climatic Change, 81, 71–95, 2007.
Bornstein, R. and Lin, Q.: Urban Heat Island and Summer Time Convective
Thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three Case Studies, Atmos. Environ., 34, 507–516, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00374-X, 2000.
Bovio, G., Quaglino, A., and Nosenzo, A.: Individuazione di un indice di
previsione per il Pericolo di Incendi Boschivi, Montie Boschi Anno XXXV(4),
Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 39–44, 1984.
Brázdil, R., Chromá, K., Dobrovolný, P., and Černoch, Z.:
The tornado history of the Czech Lands, AD 1119–2010, Atmos. Res., 118,
193–204, 2012.
Burić, D., Luković, J., Ducić, V., Dragojlović, J., and Doderović, M.: Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over southern Montenegro (1951–2010), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 67–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-67-2014, 2014.
Businger, S. and Reed, R.: Cyclogenesis in cold air masses, Weather Forecast., 20, 133–156, 1989.
Cicek, I. and Turkoglu, N.: Urban Effects on Precipitation in Ankara, Atmosfera, 18, 173–187, 2005.
Dalezios, N. R. (Ed.): Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management, IWA, London, UK, ISBN 9781780407128, p. 534, 2017.
Dalezios, N. R.: Drought and Remote Sensing: An Overview, in: Book chap. 1,
Remote Sensing of Hydrometeorological Hazards, edited by: Petropoulos, G. P. and Islam, T., Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 3–32, 2018.
Dalezios, N. R. and Eslamian, S.: Regional Design Storm for Greece within the
Flood Risk Management Framework, Int. J. Hydrol. Sci. Technol., 6, 82–102, 2016.
Dalezios, N. R., Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., and Liakopoulos, H.: Severity-Duration-Frequency Analysis of Droughts and Wet Periods in Greece,
Hydrol. Sci., 45, 751–769, 2000.
Dalezios, N. R., Blanta, A., and Spyropoulos, N. V.: Assessment of remotely sensed drought features in vulnerable agriculture, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3139–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3139-2012, 2012.
Dalezios, N. R., Blanta, A., Spyropoulos, N. V., and Tarquis, A. M.: Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, 2014.
Dalezios, N. R., Tarquis, A. M., and Eslamian, S.: Drought Assessment and Risk Analysis, in: Book chap. 18 in Vol. 1 of 3-Volume Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity (HDWS), edited by: Eslamian, S., Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 323–343, 2017.
Dalezios, N., Petropoulos, G. P., and Faraslis, I. N.: Concepts and Methodologies of Environmental Hazards and Disasters, in: chap. 1, Techniques for Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation, edited by: Srivastava, P. K., Singh, S. K., Mohanty, U. C., and Murty, T., AGU-Wiley, Washington, DC, USA, 3–22, ISBN-10: 111935918X, April 2020.
Deeming, J. E., Burgan, R. E., and Cohen, J. D.: The National Fire-Danger
Rating System – 1978, USDA Forest Service General technical Report INT-39,
Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT, 1977.
Doswell, C. A., Brooks, H. E., and Maddox, R. A.: Flash flood forecasting: An
ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–581, 1996.
Dotzek, N.: An updated esti mate of tornado occurrence in Europe, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 153–161, 2003.
Emanuel, K.: Genesis and maintenance of “Mediterranean hurricanes”, Adv. Geosci., 2, 217–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-217-2005, 2005.
Feloni, E. G., Baltas, E. A., Nastos, P. T., and Matsangouras, I. T.: Implementation and evaluation of a convective/stratiform precipitation scheme in Attica region, Greece, Atmos. Res., 220, 109–119, 2019.
Fujita, T. T.: Tornadoes around the world, Weatherwise, 26, 56–83, 1973.
Gayà, M., Homar, V., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Tornadoes and waterspouts in the Balearic Islands: Phenomena and environment characterization, Atmos. Res., 56, 253–267, 2000.
Giannaros, T. M., Melas, D., Daglis, I. A., and Keramitsoglou, I.: Development of an operational modeling system for urban heat islands: an application to Athens, Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 347–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, 2014.
Golden, J. H.: An assessment of waterspout frequencies along the U.S. east
and Gulf states, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 231–236, 1977.
Golden, J. H.: The life cycle of Florida Keys' waterspouts I, J. Appl. Meteorol., 13, 676–692, 1974a.
Golden, J. H.: Scale-interaction implications for the waterspout life cycle II, J. Appl. Meteorol., 13, 693–709, 1974b.
Golden, J. H.: Waterspouts, in: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, edited
by: Holton, J. R., Academic Press, Oxford, 2510–2525, https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00451-6, 2003.
Guo, L. X., Fu, H. D., and Wang, J.: Mesoscale convective precipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing City, Atmos. Res., 82, 112–126, 2006.
Haghroosta, T., Ismail, W. R., Ghafarian, P., and Barekati, S. M.: The efficiency of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating typhoons, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2179–2187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2179-2014, 2014.
Heideman, K. F. and Fritsch, J. M.: A quantitative evaluation of the warm-season QPF problem, in: Preprints Tenth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and
Analysis, Clearwater Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, MA, USA, 57–64, 1984.
Hess, G. D. and Spillane, K. T.: Waterspouts in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 38, 173–180, 1990.
Homar, V., Romero, R., Stensrud, D. J., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Numerical
diagnosis of a small, quasi-tropical cyclone over the western Mediterranean:
Dynamical vs. boundary factors, Q. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 1469–1490, 2003.
Houze, R. A.: Structure and dynamics of a tropical squall-line system, Mon.
Weather Rev., 105, 1540–1567, 1977.
ICONA: Experimentacion de un nuevo sistema para determinacion del peligro de
incendios forestales derivado de los combustibles:instrucciones de calculo,
Instituto Nacional para la Conservacion de la Naturaleza, Madrid, Spain, 1988.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, Special Report of IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 594, 2012.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Joyce, L. A., Blate, G. M., Littell, J. S., McNulty, S.G., Millar, C. I.,
Moser, S. C., Neilson, R. P., O'Halloran, K., and Peterson, D. L.: National
Forests, In: Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive
ecosystems and resources, in: A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, US Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, 3-1–3-127, 2008.
Karali, A., Hatzaki, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Roussos, A., Xanthopoulos, G., and Tenentes, V.: Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014, 2014.
Katsafados, P., Papadopoulos, A., Varlas, G., Papadopoulou, E., and Mavromatidis, E.: Seasonal predictability of the 2010 Russian heat wave, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1531–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1531-2014, 2014.
Koppe, C., Jendritzky, G., Kovats, S., and Menne, B.: Heat-waves: risks and
responses, Series No. 2, Regional Office for Europe, Health and Global Environmental Change, Kopenhagen, Denmark, 2004.
Kostopoulou, E., Giannakopoulos, C., Hatzaki, M., Karali, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Lelieveld, J., and Lange, M. A.: Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1565–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1565-2014, 2014.
Lee, H. D. P.: Aristotle: Meteorologica, Loeb Classical Library No. 397,
Harvard University press and Heinemann, Cambridge, London, 1952.
Leon, D. C., French, J. R., Lasher-Trapp, S., Blyth, A. M., Abel, S. J., Ballard, S., Barrett, A., Bennett, L. J., Bower, K., Brooks, B., Brown, P.,
Charlton-Perez, C., Choularton, T., Clark, P., Collier, C., Crosier, J.,
Cui, Z., Dey, S., Dufton, D., Eagle, C., Flynn, M. J., Gallagher, M., Halliwell, C., Hanley, K., Hawkness-Smith, L., Huang, Y., Kelly, G., Kitchen, M., Korolev, A., Lean, H., Liu, Z., Marsham, J., Moser, D., Nicol, J., Norton, E. G., Plummer, D., Price, J., Ricketts, H., Roberts, N., Rosenberg, P. D., Simonin, D., Taylor, J. W., Warren, R., Williams, P. I., and Young, G.: The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): Investigating the origins of heavy precipitation in the southwestern UK, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1003–1020, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00157.1, 2016.
Leverson, V. H., Sinclair, P. C., and Golden, J. H.: Waterspout wind,
temperature and pressure structure deduced from aircraft measurements, Mon.
Weather Rev., 105, 725–733, 1977.
Marcinoniene, I.: Tornadoes in Lithuania in the period of 1950–2002 including analysis of the strongest tornado of 29 May 1981, Atmos. Res.,
67–68, 475–484, 2003.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., Bluestein, H. B., and Sioutas, M. V.: A
climatology of tornadic activity over Greece based on historical records, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2538–2555, 2014a.
Matsangouras, I. T., Pytharoulis, I., and Nastos, P. T.: Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, 2014b.
Matzarakis, A. and Nastos, P. T.: Human-biometeorological assessment of heat waves in Athens, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 99–106, 2011.
Matzarakis, A., Mayer, H., and Iziomon, M. G.: Applications of a universal
thermal index: physiological equivalent temperature, Int. J. Biometeorol., 43, 76–84, 1999.
Mc Arthur, A. G.: Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forests, Leaflet No. 107, Department of National Development, Forestry and Timber Bureau, Canberra,
Australia, 1967.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought
frequency and duration to time scale, in: Preprints Eighth Conference on
Applied Climatology, 17–22 January 1993, AMS – American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA, 179–184, 1993.
Meaden, G. T.: Tornadoes in Britain: Their intensities and distribution in
space and time, J. Meteorol., 1, 242–251, 1976.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Salen, H., and Wreford, A.:
Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from
European case studies, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change, 15, 737–762, 2010.
Miglietta, M. M., Mastrangelo, D., and Conte, D.: Influence of physics
parameterization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the
Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 153, 360–375, 2015.
Moscatello, A., Miglietta, M. M., and Rotunno, R.: Numerical analysis of a
Mediterranean `hurricane' over southeastern Italy, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 4373–4397, 2008.
Mylonas, M. P., Douvis, K. C., Polychroni, I. D., Politi, N., and Nastos, P.
T.: Analysis of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone. Sensitivity to WRF
Parameterizations and Horizontal Resolution, Atmosphere, 10, 425,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080425, 2019.
Nastos, P. and Matzarakis, A.: Variability of tropical days over Greece within the second half of the twentieth century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, 75–89, 2008.
Nastos, P. T. and Kapsomenakis, J.: Regional climate model simulations of
extreme air temperature in Greece. Abnormal or common records in the future
climate?, Atmos. Res., 152, 43–60, 2015.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, J. T.: Tornado activity in Greece within the 20th century, Adv. Geosci., 26, 49–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-49-2010, 2010.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, I. T.: Analysis of synoptic conditions for tornadic days over western Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014.
Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece, Adv. Geosci., 10, 59–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-10-59-2007, 2007.
Nastos, P. T., Politi, N., and Kapsomenakis, J.: Spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index in Greece, Atmos. Res., 119, 140–152, 2013.
Nastos, P. T., Matsangouras, I. T., and Chronis, T. G.: Spatio-temporal analysis of lightning activity over Greece – Preliminary results derived from the recent state precision lightning network, Atmos. Res., 144,
207–217, 2014.
Nastos, P. T., Philandras, C. M., Kapsomenakis, J. N., Repapis, C. C., and
Zerefos, C. S.: Features of extreme daily rain over specific thresholds in
Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece, in: Vol. 2, 11th International Hydrogeological Congress, Athens, 371–383, 2017.
Nastos, P. T., Karavana-Papadimou, K., and Matsangouras, I. T.: Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones: Impacts and composite daily means and anomalies of synoptic patterns, Atmos. Res., 208, 156–166, 2018.
Palmer, W. C.: Meteorological drought, Research Paper No. 45, US Department
of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 1965.
Peterson, R. E.: A historical review of tornadoes in Italy, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 74–76, 123–130, 1998.
Polychroni, I., and Nastos, P. T.: Annual standardized precipitation index (SPI12) over the Mediterranean, in: Vol. 2, 11th International Hydrogeological Congress, Athens, 435–444, 2017.
Price, C.: Thunderstorms, Lightning and Climate Change, in: Lightning:
Principles, Instruments and Applications, edited by: Betz, H. D., Schumann, U., and Laroche, P., Springer Publications, Cham, Switzerland, 521–536, 2009.
Pytharoulis, I., Craig, G. C., and Ballard, S. P.: The hurricane-like
Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995, Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261–279, 2000.
Rauhala, J., Brooks, E. H., and Schultz, M. D.: Tornado climatology of Finland, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 1446–1456, 2012.
Reynolds, D. J.: A revised U.K. tornado climatology, 1960–1989, J. Meteorol., 24, 290–321, 1999.
Robine, J. M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C.,
Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331, 171–178, 2006.
Robinson, P. J.: On the definition of heat waves, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40,
762–775, 2001.
Rogers, R.: Doppler radar investigation of Hawaiian rain, Tellus, 19, 432–454, 1967.
Running, S. W.: Is Global Warming Causing More, Larger Wildfires?, Science,
313, 927–928, 2006.
Salinger, J., Sivakumar, M. V. K., and Motha, R. P. (Eds): Increasing Climate Variability and Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, p. 362, ISBN 1-4020-3354-0,, 2005.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature
variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336, 2004.
Segoni, S., Rosi, A., Rossi, G., Catani, F., and Casagli, N.: Analysing the relationship between rainfalls and landslides to define a mosaic of triggering thresholds for regional-scale warning systems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2637–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2637-2014, 2014a.
Segoni, S., Rossi, G., Rosi, A., and Catani, F.: Landslides triggered by rainfall: a semi-automated procedure to define consistent intensity-duration
thresholds, Comput. Geosci., 63, 123–131, 2014b.
Simpson, J. S., Morton, B. R., McCumber, M. C., and Penc, R. S.: Observations and mechanisms of GATE waterspouts, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 753–782, 1986.
Sivakumar, M. V. K., Motha, R. P., and Das, H. P. (Eds): Natural Disaster
and Extreme Events in Agriculture, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, p. 367, ISBN 10 3-540-22490-4, 2005.
Smith, K.: Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster,
6th Edn., Springer, Springer, Cham, p. 478, 2013.
Tolika, K., Maheras, P., Pytharoulis, I., and Anagnostopoulou, C.: The anomalous low and high temperatures of 2012 over Greece – an explanation from a meteorological and climatological perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 501–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-501-2014, 2014.
Tooming, H. K. and Peterson, R. E.: Vigorous tornadoes and waterspouts during the last 35 years in Estoniain: Meteorology in Estonia in Johannes Letzmann's Times and Today, edited by: Eelsalu, H. and Tooming, H., Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn, Estonia, 168–179, 1995.
Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., and Vangelis, H.: Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Water Res. Manage., 21, 821–833, 2007.
Tucker, C. J.: Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ., 8, 127–150, 1979.
Tucker, C. J. and Choudhury, B. J.: Satellite remote sensing of drought conditions, Remote Sens. Environ., 23, 243–251, 1987.
Tyrrell, J.: A tornado climatology for Ireland, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 671–684, 2003.
UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization:
Map of the world distribution of arid regions: Map at scale
with explanatory note, MAB Technical Notes 7, UNESCO, Paris, 1979.
UN/ISDR: Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, in: Final Report, World Conference on Disaster Reduction, 18–20 January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, p. 22, 2005.
Vandentorren, S., Bretin, P., Zeghnoun, A., Mandereau-Bruno, L., Croisier,
A., Cochet, C., Ribéron, J., Siberan, I., Declercq, B., and Ledrans, M.:
August 2003 heat wave in France: risk factors for death of elderly people
living at home, Eur. J. Publ. Health, 16, 583–591, 2006.
van Wagner, C. E.: Development and structure of a Canadian forest fire weather index system, Forestry Tech. Rep. 35, Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, 1987.
Venäläinen, A. and Heikinheimo, M.: The Finnish forest fire index
calculation system, in: Early warning systems for natural disaster reduction, edited by: Zschau, J. and Kuppers, A., Springer, Cham, Switzerland, 645–648, 2003.
Wang, G.: Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global
climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment, Clim. Dynam., 25, 739–753, 2005.
Weghorst, K.: The reclamation drought index: Guidelines and practical applications, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, 6 pp., 1996.
WMO – World Meteorological Organization: Preventing and mitigating natural
disasters, WMO-No. 993, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN 92-63-10993-1, 2006.
Yang, L., Smith, J. A., Baeck, M. L., Bou-Zeid, E., Jessup, S. M., Tian, F.,
and Hu, H.: Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Convective Precipitation under
Strong Large-Scale Forcing: A Case Study over the Milwaukee–Lake Michigan
Region, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 261–278, 2014.
Yonetani, T.: Increase in number of days with heavy precipitation in Tokyo
urban area, J. Appl. Meteorol., 21, 1466–1471, 1982.
Zhang, X., Hegerl, G., Zwiers, F. W., and Kenyon, J.: Avoiding Inhomogeneity
in Percentile-Based Indices of Temperature Extremes, J. Climate, 18, 1641–1651, 2005.
Short summary
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint