Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
Review article 24 Jun 2021
Review article | 24 Jun 2021
Review article: Risk management framework of environmental hazards and extremes in Mediterranean ecosystems
Panagiotis T. Nastos et al.
Panagiotis T. Nastos and Nicolas R. Dalezios
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1259–1268,
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49,
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421,
I. T. Matsangouras, I. Pytharoulis, and P. T. Nastos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919,
Rubén Moratiel, Raquel Bravo, Antonio Saa, Ana M. Tarquis, and Javier Almorox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–875,Short summary
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation data are not readily available. In this study we used, for the estimation of ETo, seven models against Penman–Monteith FAO 56 with temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial perspective over Duero basin (Spain). The results of the tested models can be useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management under the limitation of agrometeorological data.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813,Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362,Short summary
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33,Short summary
A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702,Short summary
Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
Carmelo Alonso, Ana M. Tarquis, Ignacio Zúñiga, and Rosa M. Benito
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 141–155,Short summary
NDVI and EVI vegetation indexes, estimated from satellite images, can been used to estimate root zone soil moisture. However, depending on the spatial and radiometric resolution of the sensors used, estimations could change. In this work, images taken by satellites IKONOS-2 and LANDSAT-7 of the same location are compared on the four bands involved in these vegetation indexes. The results show that spatial resolution has a similar scaling effect in the four bands, but not radiometric resolution.
Ana M. Tarquis, María Teresa Castellanos, Maria Carmen Cartagena, Augusto Arce, Francisco Ribas, María Jesús Cabello, Juan López de Herrera, and Nigel R. A. Bird
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 77–87,Short summary
Melon crop got different levels of N that constituted a contribution to the variation of soil N at mainly larger scales. During its development a proportion of the N was taken up, adding a second factor of variability at smaller scales. After the melon harvest, the wheat was sown across the plots and harvested at the end of the season. Wheat was used as a N sink crop and allowed us to evaluate the soil N residual. Multiscale and relative entropy were applied to study N scale dependencies.
Panagiotis T. Nastos and Nicolas R. Dalezios
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1259–1268,
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49,
N. R. Dalezios, A. Blanta, N. V. Spyropoulos, and A. M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448,
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421,
I. T. Matsangouras, I. Pytharoulis, and P. T. Nastos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919,
P. Cely, A. M. Tarquis, J. Paz-Ferreiro, A. Méndez, and G. Gascó
Solid Earth, 5, 585–594,
A. Matulka, P. López, J. M. Redondo, and A. Tarquis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 269–278,
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological HazardsGlobal ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 1: ObservationsGlobal ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 2: Algorithm validationAssessing internal changes in the future structure of dry–hot compound events: the case of the PyreneesChanges in drought features at the European level over the last 120 yearsAssimilation of Himawari-8 imager radiance data with the WRF-3DVAR system for the prediction of Typhoon SoudelorAtmospheric conditions leading to an exceptional fatal flash flood in the Negev Desert, IsraelReview article: Towards resilient vital infrastructure systems – challenges, opportunities, and future research agendaFatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019Drought propagation and construction of a comprehensive drought index based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and empirical Kendall distribution function (KC′): a case study for the Jinta River basin in northwestern ChinaExtreme wind return periods from tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical modelReview article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verificationAn analysis of temporal scaling behaviour of extreme rainfall in Germany based on radar precipitation QPE dataThe heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observationsWet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimatesDrought impact in the Bolivian Altiplano agriculture associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery dataA statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessmentThe impact of drought on soil moisture trends across Brazilian biomesSimulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimationsRadar-based assessment of hail frequency in EuropeA new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North PacificInvited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 Challenges in the area of natural hazardsData assimilation impact studies with the AROME-WMED reanalysis of the first special observation period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean ExperimentAssessing heat exposure to extreme temperatures in urban areas using the Local Climate Zone classificationAre Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storylineA 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser AntillesModelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climateWindstorms in the Northeastern United StatesExtension of the WRF-Chem volcanic emission preprocessor to integrate complex source terms and evaluation for different emission scenarios of the Grimsvötn 2011 eruptionThe contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidentsAssessing atmospheric moisture effects on heavy precipitation during HyMeX IOP16 using GPS nudging and dynamical downscalingModeling volcanic ash aggregation processes and related impacts on the April–May 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano with WRF-ChemIntra-annual variability of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and occurrence of extreme torrential precipitation in Catalonia (NE Iberia)Review article: A comprehensive review of datasets and methodologies employed to produce thunderstorm climatologiesBias correction of a gauge-based gridded product to improve extreme precipitation analysis in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River basinAnalysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in SerbiaBrief Communication: An electrifying atmospheric river – understanding the thunderstorm event in Santa Barbara County during March 2019Spatiotemporal changes of heat waves and extreme temperatures in the main cities of China from 1955 to 2014Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central EuropePresent and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern NorwayHydrometeorological droughts in the Miño–Limia–Sil hydrographic demarcation (northwestern Iberian Peninsula): the role of atmospheric driversBrief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound floodingEstimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of ChinaA methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective originThe sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7aBrief communication: Hurricane Dorian: automated near-real-time mapping of the “unprecedented” flooding in the Bahamas using synthetic aperture radarSystematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast datasetAn 18-year climatology of derechos in GermanyImplementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, Hugh Hunt, Lukas Schwalt, Christian Vergeiner, Carlos T. Mata, Carina Schumann, and Tom Warner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1909–1919,Short summary
Information about lightning properties is important in order to advance the current understanding of lightning, whereby the characteristics of ground strike points are in particular helpful to improving the risk estimation for lightning protection. High-speed video recordings of 1174 negative downward lightning flashes are taken in different regions around the world and analyzed in terms of flash multiplicity, duration, interstroke intervals and ground strike point properties.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Leandro Z. S. Campos, Michihiro Matsui, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, and Hugh Hunt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933,Short summary
The lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike. Flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average; therefore the use of ground strike point densities is more appropriate. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points.
Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1721–1738,Short summary
We present research that attempts to address recent and future changes in hot and dry compound events in the Pyrenees, which can induce severe environmental hazards in this area. The results show that during the last few decades, these kinds of compound events have only increased due to temperature increase. However, for the future, it is expected that the risk associated with these compound events will be raised by both the thermal increase and the longer duration of drought periods.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701,Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Feifei Shen, Aiqing Shu, Hong Li, Dongmei Xu, and Jinzhong Min
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1569–1582,Short summary
The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari-8 can continuously monitor high-impact weather events with high frequency in space and time. The assimilation of AHI radiance data was implemented with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for the analysis and prediction of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) in the Pacific typhoon season.
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597,Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407,Short summary
This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Jan Řehoř, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, and Petr Dobrovolný
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382,Short summary
We present an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period based on our own database created from newspaper reports, on the database of the Czech Statistical Office, and on the database of the police of the Czech Republic as well as on their comparison. Despite some uncertainties, generally declining trends in the number of fatalities appear for the majority of weather variables. The structure of fatalities is described in detail.
Zheng Liang, Xiaoling Su, and Kai Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1323–1335,Short summary
In view of the shortage of data in alpine mountainous areas and the difficulty of a single drought index to reflect all the characteristics of drought, this paper constructs a comprehensive drought index (MAHDI) based on the SWAT model and the empirical Kendall distribution function, which connects multiple drought elements. The results show that MAHDI can simultaneously characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought and has strong applicability and comprehensiveness.
Hamish Steptoe and Theodoros Economou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1313–1322,Short summary
We use high-resolution computer simulations of tropical cyclones to investigate extreme wind speeds over Bangladesh. We show that some northern provinces, up to 200 km inland, may experience conditions equal to or exceeding a very severe cyclonic storm event with a likelihood equal to coastal regions less than 50 km inland. We hope that these kilometre-scale hazard maps facilitate one part of the risk assessment chain to improve local ability to make effective risk management decisions.
Chiara Marsigli, Elizabeth Ebert, Raghavendra Ashrit, Barbara Casati, Jing Chen, Caio A. S. Coelho, Manfred Dorninger, Eric Gilleland, Thomas Haiden, Stephanie Landman, and Marion Mittermaier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1297–1312,Short summary
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. New observations include remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and reports from insurance companies. This work has been performed in the framework of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of the WMO.
Judith Marie Pöschmann, Dongkyun Kim, Rico Kronenberg, and Christian Bernhofer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1195–1207,Short summary
We examined maximum rainfall values for different durations from 16 years of radar-based rainfall records for whole Germany. Unlike existing observations based on rain gauge data no clear linear relationship could be identified. However, by classifying all time series, we could identify three similar groups determined by the temporal structure of rainfall extremes observed in the study period. The study highlights the importance of using long data records and a dense measurement network.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157,Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France. The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christophe Lavaysse, Mamadou Simina Drame, Geremy Panthou, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1051–1069,Short summary
Extreme wet and dry rainfall periods over Senegal provided by satellite, reanalyses, and ground observations are compared. Despite a spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall accumulation between all products, discrepancies are found at intra-seasonal timescales. All datasets highlight comparable seasonal cycles of dry and wet spells. Nevertheless, CHIRPS and TAMSAT are close to observations for the dry spells, whereas TRMM obtains the closest values of wet spells as regards the observations.
Claudia Canedo-Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 995–1010,Short summary
Drought is a major natural hazard that causes large losses for farmers. This study evaluated drought severity based on a drought classification scheme using NDVI and LST, which was related to the ENSO anomalies. In addition, the spatial distribution of NDVI was associated with precipitation and air temperature at the local level. Our findings show that drought severity increases during El Niño years, and as a consequence the socio-economic drought risk of farmers will likely increase.
William C. Arthur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 893–916,Short summary
We have developed a statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
Flavio Lopes Ribeiro, Mario Guevara, Alma Vázquez-Lule, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcelo Zeri, and Rodrigo Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 879–892,Short summary
The main objective of this paper was to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil. For that we used satellite data from the European Space Agency from 2009 to 2015. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 % yr−1 at the country level and identified the most vulnerable biomes of Brazil. This information is crucial to enhance the national drought early warning system and develop strategies for drought risk reduction and soil moisture conservation.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878,Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701,Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 663–682,Short summary
Due to the rarity of high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), it is difficult to achieve a robust TC hazard assessment based on historical observations only. Here we present an approach to construct a TC event set that contains more than 10 000 years of TC events by using a computationally simple and efficient method. This event set has similar characteristics as the historical observations but includes a better representation of intense TCs. Thus, a robust TC hazard assessment can be achieved.
Florian Pappenberger, Florence Rabier, and Fabio Venuti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high quality global medium‐range (3–15 days ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and montitoring natural hazards.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480,Short summary
The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Joan Gilabert, Anna Deluca, Dirk Lauwaet, Joan Ballester, Jordi Corbera, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 375–391,Short summary
Trends of extreme temperature episodes in cities are increasing due to regional climate change in interaction with urban effects. Urban morphologies and thermal properties of the materials used to build them are factors that influence climate variability and are one of the main reasons for the climatic singularity of cities. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the urban and peri-urban effect on extreme-temperature exposure using land cover and land use maps.
David MacLeod, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Michael Osunga, Joanne Robbins, Richard Graham, Pedram Rowhani, and Martin C. Todd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 261–277,Short summary
Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use. Here we evaluate heavy rainfall advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts. We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186,Short summary
The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
Raphaël Cécé, Didier Bernard, Yann Krien, Frédéric Leone, Thomas Candela, Matthieu Péroche, Emmanuel Biabiany, Gael Arnaud, Ali Belmadani, Philippe Palany, and Narcisse Zahibo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 129–145,Short summary
The present innovative modeling aims to combine the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damage and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.
Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney, William Cabos, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Alba de la Vara, and Juan Jesus González-Alemán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 53–71,Short summary
This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under present and future climate conditions with a regional climate model. A pseudo global warming (PGW) technique is employed to simulate the cyclone under future climate, and our simulation showed that the cyclone is moderately strengthened by warmer climate. Other PGW simulations where only ocean and atmosphere are warmed reveal the interesting results that both have counteracting effects on the cyclone.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the U.S. Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high population density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks, but have intensities five to ten the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Marcus Hirtl, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Martin Stuefer, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Christian Maurer, and Marie D. Mulder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115,Short summary
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical transport model WRF-Chem. The model is evaluated with different observational data sets for the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano 2011.
Alexander Krug, Daniel Fenner, Hans-Guido Mücke, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097,Short summary
This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Besides air temperature, ozone concentrations partly explain these mortality rates. The strength of the respective contributions of the two stressors varies across the cities. Results highlight that during hot weather episodes, not only high air temperature affects urban populations; concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role in public health.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871,Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776,Short summary
Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2737,Short summary
The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation, and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic ash a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Laia Arbiol-Roca, Javier Martin-Vide, Antoni Barrera-Escoda, and Marc Prohom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2501,Short summary
We considered the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) to analyse the occurrence of extreme torrential episodes (≥ 200 mm in 24 h) over Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 period. Principal results reveal the occurrence of 50 episodes, mainly in autumn, especially during the second 10 d period of October (11–20), coinciding with the most negative WeMOi values of the year. Seasonal changes in these episodes and in WeMOi values might be due to sea warming.
Leah Hayward, Malcolm Whitworth, Nick Pepin, and Steve Dorling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2463–2482,Short summary
This review article outlines the state of thunderstorm climatologies, which are underrepresented in the literature. Thunderstorms overlap with lightning and intense precipitation events, both of which create important hazards. This article compiles and evaluates information on datasets, research approaches and methodologies used in quantifying thunderstorm distribution, providing an introduction to the topic and signposting new and established researchers to research articles and datasets.
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2243–2254,Short summary
In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation indices were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.
Milica M. Pecelj, Milica Z. Lukić, Dejan J. Filipović, Branko M. Protić, and Uroš M. Bogdanović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2021–2036,Short summary
The variation in UTCI heat stress grade was observed during heat waves over the past 20 years in order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions in Serbia.
Very strong heat stressdescribes an alarming biothermal state and has occurred frequently in the last 10 years. The findings indicate the UTCI14 h index
very strong heat stress event(VSHSE) as an indicator of biothermal heat hazard.
Deanna Nash and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1931–1940,Short summary
On 6 March 2019, during an atmospheric river (AR) event, over 8000 lightning flashes were recorded near southern California in under 24 h, resulting in a unique meteorological event for this region. This study examines the characteristics of this AR compared to previous landfalling ARs in Santa Barbara and explores how the conditions led to the formation of hail and enhanced electrification in a region that sees little to no lightning.
Kuo Li and Gyilbag Amatus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1889–1901,Short summary
In recent years, heat waves have become more frequent in the world, e.g., in Europe, Australia, China and the US, at huge detriment to human health and natural resources. Thus we establish an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days to provide unified standards for assessing heat waves and hot years. It provides a clear picture of the evolution and spatial distribution of heat waves and hot years in China.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887,Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Ketil Isaksen, Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen, and Irene Brox Nilsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1847–1865,Short summary
We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832,
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782,Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637,Short summary
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531,Short summary
Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483,Short summary
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468,Short summary
On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km2.
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389,Short summary
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351,Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Akhtar, N., Brauch, J., Dobler, A., Béranger, K., and Ahrens, B.: Medicanes in an ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2189–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2189-2014, 2014.
Alexakis, D. D., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Agapiou, A., Themistocleous, K., Tsanis, I. K., Michaelides, S., Pashiardis, S., Demetriou, C., Aristeidou, K., Retalis, A., Tymvios, F., and Hadjimitsis, D. G.: GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use change impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias basin in Cyprus, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-413-2014, 2014.
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K. M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Benhamrouche, A., Boucherf, D., Hamadache, R., Bendahmane, L., Martin-Vide, J., and Teixeira Nery, J.: Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 617–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-617-2015, 2015.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Current and future extreme climatic events in Europe: observations and modeling studies conducted within the EU PRUDENCE project, Climatic Change, 81, 71–95, 2007.
Bornstein, R. and Lin, Q.: Urban Heat Island and Summer Time Convective Thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three Case Studies, Atmos. Environ., 34, 507–516, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00374-X, 2000.
Bovio, G., Quaglino, A., and Nosenzo, A.: Individuazione di un indice di previsione per il Pericolo di Incendi Boschivi, Montie Boschi Anno XXXV(4), Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 39–44, 1984.
Burić, D., Luković, J., Ducić, V., Dragojlović, J., and Doderović, M.: Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over southern Montenegro (1951–2010), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 67–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-67-2014, 2014.
Businger, S. and Reed, R.: Cyclogenesis in cold air masses, Weather Forecast., 20, 133–156, 1989.
Cicek, I. and Turkoglu, N.: Urban Effects on Precipitation in Ankara, Atmosfera, 18, 173–187, 2005.
Dalezios, N. R. (Ed.): Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management, IWA, London, UK, ISBN 9781780407128, p. 534, 2017.
Dalezios, N. R.: Drought and Remote Sensing: An Overview, in: Book chap. 1, Remote Sensing of Hydrometeorological Hazards, edited by: Petropoulos, G. P. and Islam, T., Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 3–32, 2018.
Dalezios, N. R. and Eslamian, S.: Regional Design Storm for Greece within the Flood Risk Management Framework, Int. J. Hydrol. Sci. Technol., 6, 82–102, 2016.
Dalezios, N. R., Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., and Liakopoulos, H.: Severity-Duration-Frequency Analysis of Droughts and Wet Periods in Greece, Hydrol. Sci., 45, 751–769, 2000.
Dalezios, N. R., Blanta, A., and Spyropoulos, N. V.: Assessment of remotely sensed drought features in vulnerable agriculture, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3139–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3139-2012, 2012.
Dalezios, N. R., Blanta, A., Spyropoulos, N. V., and Tarquis, A. M.: Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, 2014.
Dalezios, N. R., Tarquis, A. M., and Eslamian, S.: Drought Assessment and Risk Analysis, in: Book chap. 18 in Vol. 1 of 3-Volume Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity (HDWS), edited by: Eslamian, S., Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 323–343, 2017.
Dalezios, N., Petropoulos, G. P., and Faraslis, I. N.: Concepts and Methodologies of Environmental Hazards and Disasters, in: chap. 1, Techniques for Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation, edited by: Srivastava, P. K., Singh, S. K., Mohanty, U. C., and Murty, T., AGU-Wiley, Washington, DC, USA, 3–22, ISBN-10: 111935918X, April 2020.
Deeming, J. E., Burgan, R. E., and Cohen, J. D.: The National Fire-Danger Rating System – 1978, USDA Forest Service General technical Report INT-39, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT, 1977.
Doswell, C. A., Brooks, H. E., and Maddox, R. A.: Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–581, 1996.
Dotzek, N.: An updated esti mate of tornado occurrence in Europe, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 153–161, 2003.
Emanuel, K.: Genesis and maintenance of “Mediterranean hurricanes”, Adv. Geosci., 2, 217–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-217-2005, 2005.
Feloni, E. G., Baltas, E. A., Nastos, P. T., and Matsangouras, I. T.: Implementation and evaluation of a convective/stratiform precipitation scheme in Attica region, Greece, Atmos. Res., 220, 109–119, 2019.
Fujita, T. T.: Tornadoes around the world, Weatherwise, 26, 56–83, 1973.
Gayà, M., Homar, V., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Tornadoes and waterspouts in the Balearic Islands: Phenomena and environment characterization, Atmos. Res., 56, 253–267, 2000.
Giannaros, T. M., Melas, D., Daglis, I. A., and Keramitsoglou, I.: Development of an operational modeling system for urban heat islands: an application to Athens, Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 347–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, 2014.
Golden, J. H.: An assessment of waterspout frequencies along the U.S. east and Gulf states, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 231–236, 1977.
Golden, J. H.: The life cycle of Florida Keys' waterspouts I, J. Appl. Meteorol., 13, 676–692, 1974a.
Golden, J. H.: Scale-interaction implications for the waterspout life cycle II, J. Appl. Meteorol., 13, 693–709, 1974b.
Golden, J. H.: Waterspouts, in: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, edited by: Holton, J. R., Academic Press, Oxford, 2510–2525, https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00451-6, 2003.
Guo, L. X., Fu, H. D., and Wang, J.: Mesoscale convective precipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing City, Atmos. Res., 82, 112–126, 2006.
Haghroosta, T., Ismail, W. R., Ghafarian, P., and Barekati, S. M.: The efficiency of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating typhoons, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2179–2187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2179-2014, 2014.
Heideman, K. F. and Fritsch, J. M.: A quantitative evaluation of the warm-season QPF problem, in: Preprints Tenth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Clearwater Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, MA, USA, 57–64, 1984.
Hess, G. D. and Spillane, K. T.: Waterspouts in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 38, 173–180, 1990.
Homar, V., Romero, R., Stensrud, D. J., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Numerical diagnosis of a small, quasi-tropical cyclone over the western Mediterranean: Dynamical vs. boundary factors, Q. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 1469–1490, 2003.
Houze, R. A.: Structure and dynamics of a tropical squall-line system, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 1540–1567, 1977.
ICONA: Experimentacion de un nuevo sistema para determinacion del peligro de incendios forestales derivado de los combustibles:instrucciones de calculo, Instituto Nacional para la Conservacion de la Naturaleza, Madrid, Spain, 1988.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Special Report of IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 594, 2012.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Joyce, L. A., Blate, G. M., Littell, J. S., McNulty, S.G., Millar, C. I., Moser, S. C., Neilson, R. P., O'Halloran, K., and Peterson, D. L.: National Forests, In: Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources, in: A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, 3-1–3-127, 2008.
Karali, A., Hatzaki, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Roussos, A., Xanthopoulos, G., and Tenentes, V.: Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014, 2014.
Katsafados, P., Papadopoulos, A., Varlas, G., Papadopoulou, E., and Mavromatidis, E.: Seasonal predictability of the 2010 Russian heat wave, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1531–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1531-2014, 2014.
Koppe, C., Jendritzky, G., Kovats, S., and Menne, B.: Heat-waves: risks and responses, Series No. 2, Regional Office for Europe, Health and Global Environmental Change, Kopenhagen, Denmark, 2004.
Kostopoulou, E., Giannakopoulos, C., Hatzaki, M., Karali, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Lelieveld, J., and Lange, M. A.: Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1565–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1565-2014, 2014.
Lee, H. D. P.: Aristotle: Meteorologica, Loeb Classical Library No. 397, Harvard University press and Heinemann, Cambridge, London, 1952.
Leon, D. C., French, J. R., Lasher-Trapp, S., Blyth, A. M., Abel, S. J., Ballard, S., Barrett, A., Bennett, L. J., Bower, K., Brooks, B., Brown, P., Charlton-Perez, C., Choularton, T., Clark, P., Collier, C., Crosier, J., Cui, Z., Dey, S., Dufton, D., Eagle, C., Flynn, M. J., Gallagher, M., Halliwell, C., Hanley, K., Hawkness-Smith, L., Huang, Y., Kelly, G., Kitchen, M., Korolev, A., Lean, H., Liu, Z., Marsham, J., Moser, D., Nicol, J., Norton, E. G., Plummer, D., Price, J., Ricketts, H., Roberts, N., Rosenberg, P. D., Simonin, D., Taylor, J. W., Warren, R., Williams, P. I., and Young, G.: The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): Investigating the origins of heavy precipitation in the southwestern UK, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1003–1020, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00157.1, 2016.
Leverson, V. H., Sinclair, P. C., and Golden, J. H.: Waterspout wind, temperature and pressure structure deduced from aircraft measurements, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 725–733, 1977.
Marcinoniene, I.: Tornadoes in Lithuania in the period of 1950–2002 including analysis of the strongest tornado of 29 May 1981, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 475–484, 2003.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., Bluestein, H. B., and Sioutas, M. V.: A climatology of tornadic activity over Greece based on historical records, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2538–2555, 2014a.
Matsangouras, I. T., Pytharoulis, I., and Nastos, P. T.: Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014, 2014b.
Matzarakis, A. and Nastos, P. T.: Human-biometeorological assessment of heat waves in Athens, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 99–106, 2011.
Matzarakis, A., Mayer, H., and Iziomon, M. G.: Applications of a universal thermal index: physiological equivalent temperature, Int. J. Biometeorol., 43, 76–84, 1999.
Mc Arthur, A. G.: Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forests, Leaflet No. 107, Department of National Development, Forestry and Timber Bureau, Canberra, Australia, 1967.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale, in: Preprints Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17–22 January 1993, AMS – American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA, 179–184, 1993.
Meaden, G. T.: Tornadoes in Britain: Their intensities and distribution in space and time, J. Meteorol., 1, 242–251, 1976.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Salen, H., and Wreford, A.: Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change, 15, 737–762, 2010.
Miglietta, M. M., Mastrangelo, D., and Conte, D.: Influence of physics parameterization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 153, 360–375, 2015.
Moscatello, A., Miglietta, M. M., and Rotunno, R.: Numerical analysis of a Mediterranean `hurricane' over southeastern Italy, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 4373–4397, 2008.
Mylonas, M. P., Douvis, K. C., Polychroni, I. D., Politi, N., and Nastos, P. T.: Analysis of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone. Sensitivity to WRF Parameterizations and Horizontal Resolution, Atmosphere, 10, 425, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080425, 2019.
Nastos, P. and Matzarakis, A.: Variability of tropical days over Greece within the second half of the twentieth century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, 75–89, 2008.
Nastos, P. T. and Kapsomenakis, J.: Regional climate model simulations of extreme air temperature in Greece. Abnormal or common records in the future climate?, Atmos. Res., 152, 43–60, 2015.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, J. T.: Tornado activity in Greece within the 20th century, Adv. Geosci., 26, 49–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-49-2010, 2010.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, I. T.: Analysis of synoptic conditions for tornadic days over western Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014.
Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece, Adv. Geosci., 10, 59–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-10-59-2007, 2007.
Nastos, P. T., Politi, N., and Kapsomenakis, J.: Spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index in Greece, Atmos. Res., 119, 140–152, 2013.
Nastos, P. T., Matsangouras, I. T., and Chronis, T. G.: Spatio-temporal analysis of lightning activity over Greece – Preliminary results derived from the recent state precision lightning network, Atmos. Res., 144, 207–217, 2014.
Nastos, P. T., Philandras, C. M., Kapsomenakis, J. N., Repapis, C. C., and Zerefos, C. S.: Features of extreme daily rain over specific thresholds in Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece, in: Vol. 2, 11th International Hydrogeological Congress, Athens, 371–383, 2017.
Nastos, P. T., Karavana-Papadimou, K., and Matsangouras, I. T.: Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones: Impacts and composite daily means and anomalies of synoptic patterns, Atmos. Res., 208, 156–166, 2018.
Palmer, W. C.: Meteorological drought, Research Paper No. 45, US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 1965.
Peterson, R. E.: A historical review of tornadoes in Italy, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 74–76, 123–130, 1998.
Polychroni, I., and Nastos, P. T.: Annual standardized precipitation index (SPI12) over the Mediterranean, in: Vol. 2, 11th International Hydrogeological Congress, Athens, 435–444, 2017.
Price, C.: Thunderstorms, Lightning and Climate Change, in: Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Applications, edited by: Betz, H. D., Schumann, U., and Laroche, P., Springer Publications, Cham, Switzerland, 521–536, 2009.
Pytharoulis, I., Craig, G. C., and Ballard, S. P.: The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995, Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261–279, 2000.
Rauhala, J., Brooks, E. H., and Schultz, M. D.: Tornado climatology of Finland, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 1446–1456, 2012.
Reynolds, D. J.: A revised U.K. tornado climatology, 1960–1989, J. Meteorol., 24, 290–321, 1999.
Robine, J. M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331, 171–178, 2006.
Robinson, P. J.: On the definition of heat waves, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 762–775, 2001.
Rogers, R.: Doppler radar investigation of Hawaiian rain, Tellus, 19, 432–454, 1967.
Running, S. W.: Is Global Warming Causing More, Larger Wildfires?, Science, 313, 927–928, 2006.
Salinger, J., Sivakumar, M. V. K., and Motha, R. P. (Eds): Increasing Climate Variability and Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, p. 362, ISBN 1-4020-3354-0,, 2005.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336, 2004.
Segoni, S., Rosi, A., Rossi, G., Catani, F., and Casagli, N.: Analysing the relationship between rainfalls and landslides to define a mosaic of triggering thresholds for regional-scale warning systems, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2637–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2637-2014, 2014a.
Segoni, S., Rossi, G., Rosi, A., and Catani, F.: Landslides triggered by rainfall: a semi-automated procedure to define consistent intensity-duration thresholds, Comput. Geosci., 63, 123–131, 2014b.
Simpson, J. S., Morton, B. R., McCumber, M. C., and Penc, R. S.: Observations and mechanisms of GATE waterspouts, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 753–782, 1986.
Sivakumar, M. V. K., Motha, R. P., and Das, H. P. (Eds): Natural Disaster and Extreme Events in Agriculture, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, p. 367, ISBN 10 3-540-22490-4, 2005.
Smith, K.: Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, 6th Edn., Springer, Springer, Cham, p. 478, 2013.
Tolika, K., Maheras, P., Pytharoulis, I., and Anagnostopoulou, C.: The anomalous low and high temperatures of 2012 over Greece – an explanation from a meteorological and climatological perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 501–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-501-2014, 2014.
Tooming, H. K. and Peterson, R. E.: Vigorous tornadoes and waterspouts during the last 35 years in Estoniain: Meteorology in Estonia in Johannes Letzmann's Times and Today, edited by: Eelsalu, H. and Tooming, H., Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn, Estonia, 168–179, 1995.
Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., and Vangelis, H.: Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Water Res. Manage., 21, 821–833, 2007.
Tucker, C. J.: Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ., 8, 127–150, 1979.
Tucker, C. J. and Choudhury, B. J.: Satellite remote sensing of drought conditions, Remote Sens. Environ., 23, 243–251, 1987.
Tyrrell, J.: A tornado climatology for Ireland, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 671–684, 2003.
UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: Map of the world distribution of arid regions: Map at scale with explanatory note, MAB Technical Notes 7, UNESCO, Paris, 1979.
UN/ISDR: Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, in: Final Report, World Conference on Disaster Reduction, 18–20 January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, p. 22, 2005.
Vandentorren, S., Bretin, P., Zeghnoun, A., Mandereau-Bruno, L., Croisier, A., Cochet, C., Ribéron, J., Siberan, I., Declercq, B., and Ledrans, M.: August 2003 heat wave in France: risk factors for death of elderly people living at home, Eur. J. Publ. Health, 16, 583–591, 2006.
van Wagner, C. E.: Development and structure of a Canadian forest fire weather index system, Forestry Tech. Rep. 35, Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, 1987.
Venäläinen, A. and Heikinheimo, M.: The Finnish forest fire index calculation system, in: Early warning systems for natural disaster reduction, edited by: Zschau, J. and Kuppers, A., Springer, Cham, Switzerland, 645–648, 2003.
Wang, G.: Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment, Clim. Dynam., 25, 739–753, 2005.
Weghorst, K.: The reclamation drought index: Guidelines and practical applications, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, 6 pp., 1996.
WMO – World Meteorological Organization: Preventing and mitigating natural disasters, WMO-No. 993, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN 92-63-10993-1, 2006.
Yang, L., Smith, J. A., Baeck, M. L., Bou-Zeid, E., Jessup, S. M., Tian, F., and Hu, H.: Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Convective Precipitation under Strong Large-Scale Forcing: A Case Study over the Milwaukee–Lake Michigan Region, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 261–278, 2014.
Yonetani, T.: Increase in number of days with heavy precipitation in Tokyo urban area, J. Appl. Meteorol., 21, 1466–1471, 1982.
Zhang, X., Hegerl, G., Zwiers, F. W., and Kenyon, J.: Avoiding Inhomogeneity in Percentile-Based Indices of Temperature Extremes, J. Climate, 18, 1641–1651, 2005.
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation....