Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jan 2020
Research article |
| 28 Jan 2020
Remote sensing in an index-based insurance design for hedging economic impacts on rice cultivation
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CEIGRAM, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Paloma Esteve
CEIGRAM, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Departamento de Economía Agraria, Estadística y Gestión de
Empresas, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid,
Spain
Ana María Tarquis
CEIGRAM, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Grupo de Sistemas Complejos, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Alberto Garrido
CEIGRAM, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Departamento de Economía Agraria, Estadística y Gestión de
Empresas, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid,
Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Juan J. Martin-Sotoca, Ernesto Sanz, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Andrés F. Almeida-Ñauñay, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work includes vegetation (VCI) and water content index (WCI) series from two semiarid rangeland areas in Spain. Based on then, a Z-score for both was calculated to use it as an anomaly index. In this way, we associated negative anomalies with drought episodes. Then, we study the relations of these negative anomalies to see if it is possible to use WCI as an alarm of agronomic drought (VCI negative anomaly). The description of the behaviour of both areas and their comparison are made.
Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Nicolas R. Dalezios, Ioannis N. Faraslis, Kostas Mitrakopoulos, Anna Blanta, Marios Spiliotopoulos, Stavros Sakellariou, Pantelis Sidiropoulos, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1935–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Rubén Moratiel, Raquel Bravo, Antonio Saa, Ana M. Tarquis, and Javier Almorox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation data are not readily available. In this study we used, for the estimation of ETo, seven models against Penman–Monteith FAO 56 with temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial perspective over Duero basin (Spain). The results of the tested models can be useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management under the limitation of agrometeorological data.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
Carmelo Alonso, Ana M. Tarquis, Ignacio Zúñiga, and Rosa M. Benito
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
NDVI and EVI vegetation indexes, estimated from satellite images, can been used to estimate root zone soil moisture. However, depending on the spatial and radiometric resolution of the sensors used, estimations could change. In this work, images taken by satellites IKONOS-2 and LANDSAT-7 of the same location are compared on the four bands involved in these vegetation indexes. The results show that spatial resolution has a similar scaling effect in the four bands, but not radiometric resolution.
Ana M. Tarquis, María Teresa Castellanos, Maria Carmen Cartagena, Augusto Arce, Francisco Ribas, María Jesús Cabello, Juan López de Herrera, and Nigel R. A. Bird
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Melon crop got different levels of N that constituted a contribution to the variation of soil N at mainly larger scales. During its development a proportion of the N was taken up, adding a second factor of variability at smaller scales. After the melon harvest, the wheat was sown across the plots and harvested at the end of the season. Wheat was used as a N sink crop and allowed us to evaluate the soil N residual. Multiscale and relative entropy were applied to study N scale dependencies.
N. R. Dalezios, A. Blanta, N. V. Spyropoulos, and A. M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, 2014
P. Cely, A. M. Tarquis, J. Paz-Ferreiro, A. Méndez, and G. Gascó
Solid Earth, 5, 585–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, 2014
A. Matulka, P. López, J. M. Redondo, and A. Tarquis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Forecasting Large Hail and Lightning using Additive Logistic Regression Models and the ECMWF Reforecasts
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornado associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Comparison of two nationwide lightning location systems and characteristics of could-to-ground lightning in China
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr Bońkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Poland is going to construct some important structures. So, knowledge about strong and extreme winds in our country is important for enginners who will design these structures. The authors’ study of maximum wind speeds in Poland is based on a set of annual maximum gust wind speeds measured at 39 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 (plotted on extremal probability paper), tornado reports collected from 1899 to 2019, and estimation of wind speeds of derechos and recent tornadoes in Poland.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improving forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as wind, extreme rainfall and hail. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and that cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storms and improved forecasting.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistics of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is the first comparison and assessment of two Chinese nationwide lightning location systems. The spatial and temporal distribution of long-term lightning activity in China is analyzed, indicating that low latitude, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surface are favorable factors for lightning occurrence. What is interesting is that high cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Cited articles
Aguilar, D., Andrade, D., Alava, D., Burbano, J., Díaz, M., Garcés, A. L., Jiménez, W., Leiva, D., Loayza, V., Muyulema, W., Pérez, P.,
Ruiz, V., Simbaña, B., and Yépez, R.: Estimación de superficie
sembrada de arroz (Oryza sativa l.) Y maíz amarillo duro (Zea mays l.)
En las épocas de invierno y verano año 2015, en las provincias de
Manabí, Los Ríos, Guayas, Santa Elena, Loja y El Oro, Quito, Ecuador, available at:
http://sinagap.agricultura.gob.ec/pdf/estudios_agroeconomicos/estimacion_superficie_arroz_maiz-2015.pdf (last access: 11 September 2018), 2015.
Aguilar, D., Alava, D., Burbano, J., Garcés, A. L., Jácome, D.,
Leiva, D., Simbaña, B., and Yépez, R.: Estimación de superficie
sembrada de arroz (Oryza sativa l.), maíz amarillo duro (Zea mays l.) y
soya (Glycine max) en las épocas del año 2017, en las provincias de:
Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, Santa Elena, Loja y El Oro, Quito, Ecuador, 2018.
Arias, O. V., Garrido, A., Villeta, M., and Tarquis, A. M.: Homogenisation of
a soil properties map by principal component analysis to define index
agricultural insurance policies, Geoderma, 311, 149–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.01.018, 2018.
Barnett, B. J. and Mahul, O.: Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and
Rural Areas in Lower-Income Countries, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 89, 1241–1247, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01091.x, 2007.
Bullock, J. M., Dhanjal-Adams, K. L., Milne, A., Oliver, T. H., Todman, L. C., Whitmore, A. P., and Pywell, R. F.: Resilience and food security:
rethinking an ecological concept, J. Ecol., 105, 880–884,
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12791, 2017.
Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., van Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., England, M. H., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E., and Jin, F.-F.: Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 111–116
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100, 2014.
Carter, M., Cheng, L., and Sarris, A.: The Impact of Inter-linked Index
Insurance and Credit Contracts on Financial Market Deepening and Small Farm
Productivity, Unpubl. manuscript, Univ. California, Davis, available at:
http://www.aueb.gr/conferences/Crete2012/papers/papers senior/Sarris.pdf (last access: 16 July 2018), 2011.
Clarke, D. J.: A theory of rational demand for index insurance, Am. Econ. J.
Microecon., 8, 283–306, https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140103, 2016.
CRED – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters: EM DAT The
International Disaster Database, available at:
http://www.emdat.be/database (last access: 26 August 2019), 2015.
de Leeuw, J., Vrieling, A., Shee, A., Atzberger, C., Hadgu, K. M., Biradar, C. M., Keah, H., and Turvey, C.: The potential and uptake of remote sensing in insurance: a review, Remote Sens., 6, 10888–10912, 2014.
Didan, K.: MOD13Q1 MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day L3 Global 250 m SIN
Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC, University of Arizona, Tucson, 2015.
Didan, K., Barreto, A., Solano, R., and Huete, A.: MODIS Vegetation Index
User's Guide (MOD13 Series) Version 3.00 (Collection 6), available at: https://vip.arizona.edu/documents/MODIS/MODIS_VI_UsersGuide_June_2015_C6.pdf
(last access: 20 March 2018), 2015.
Elabed, G., Bellemare, M. F., Carter, M. R., and Guirkinger, C.: Managing
basis risk with multiscale index insurance, Agric. Econ., 44, 419–431, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12025, 2013.
Eymond, M. and Santos, A.: Asociatividad para el acceso a la comercialización de pequeños arroceros en Ecuador, in: Dinámicas
de comercialización para la agricultura familiar campesina: desafíos y alternativas en el escenario ecuatoriano, edited by: Proaño, V. and Lacroix, P., Sistema de Investigación sobre la Problemática Agraria en el Ecuador (SIPAE), Quito, Ecuador, 65–96, available at:
https://www.avsf.org/public/posts/1704/dinamicas_comercializacion_avsf_ecuador_2014.pdf#page=66
(last access: 2 January 2019), 2013.
FAO: Seguimiento del mercado del arroz de la FAO, Comer. y mercados, FAO,
XXI, 9, https://doi.org/I9243ES/1/05.18, 2018.
FAO and Un-Habitat: On solid ground. Addressing land tenure issues following
natural disasters, Rome, 2010.
Garrido, A. and Zilberman, D.: Revisiting the demand for agricultural insurance: the case of Spain, edited by: David, Z., Agric. Financ. Rev., 68, 43–66, https://doi.org/10.1108/00214660880001218, 2008.
Gu, Y., Wylie, B. K., Howard, D. M., Phuyal, K. P., and Ji, L.: NDVI
saturation adjustment: A new approach for improving cropland performance
estimates in the Greater Platte River Basin, USA, Ecol. Indic., 30, 1–6,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.041, 2013.
Harvey, C. a, Rakotobe, Z. L., Rao, N. S., Dave, R., Razafimahatratra, H.,
Rabarijohn, R. H., Rajaofara, H., and Mackinnon, J. L.: Extreme vulnerability
of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in
Madagascar, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. B, 369, 20130089, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0089, 2014.
Hellmuth, M. E., Osgood, D. E., Hess, U., Moorhead, A., and Bhojwani, H. (Eds.): Index insurance and climate risk: prospects for development and disaster management, Climate and Society No. 2, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, New York, USA, 2009.
Höppe, P.: Scientific and Economic Rationale for Weather Risk Insurance For Agriculture, in: Managing Weather and Climate Risks in Agriculture, edited by: Sivakumar, M. V. K. and Motha, R. P., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 367–375, 2007.
Huang, J., Wang, X., Li, X., Tian, H., and Pan, Z.: Remotely sensed rice yield prediction using multi-temporal NDVI data derived from NOAA's-AVHRR, PLoS One, 8, e70816, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070816, 2013.
IEE – Instituto Espacial Ecuatoriano: Technical report of production systems
in Babahoyo canton, Quito-Ecuador, available at:
http://181.211.99.244/geodescargas/babahoyo/mt_babahoyo_sistemas_productivos.pdf
(last access: 16 April 2018), 2009.
INEC: Rice-cultivated area. Historical database, Contin. Agric. Prod. Surv. (ESPAC), Ecuador en cifras, available at:
http://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/encuesta-de-superficie-y-produccion-agropecuaria-continua-2015
(last access: 2 March 2019), 2018.
Inglada, J., Arias, M., Tardy, B., Hagolle, O., Valero, S., Morin, D., Dedieu, G., Sepulcre, G., Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., and Koetz, B.: Assessment of an Operational System for Crop Type Map Production Using High
Temporal and Spatial Resolution Satellite Optical Imagery, Remote Sens., 7, 12356–12379, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70912356, 2015.
Isch, E.: El cambio climático y el agua: efectos y medidas de adaptación, Quito, Ecuador, available at:
http://www.pacc-ecuador.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/CapacitacionCC_Modulo_dos.pdf
(last access: 18 February 2019), 2011.
Jasiulewicz, H.: Probability of ruin with variable premium rate in a Markovian environment, Insur. Math. Econ., 29, 291–296,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6687(01)00090-7, 2001.
Jensen, N. and Barrett, C.: Agricultural Index Insurance for Development, Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy, 39, 199–219, https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppw022, 2017.
Jensen, N. D., Mude, A. G., and Barrett, C. B.: How basis risk and
spatiotemporal adverse selection influence demand for index insurance: Evidence from northern Kenya, Food Policy, 74, 172–198,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01.002, 2018.
Jiao, W., Tian, C., Chang, Q., Novick, K. A., and Wang, L.: A new multi-sensor integrated index for drought monitoring, Agr. Forest. Meteorol.,
268, 74–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.008, 2019.
Kotz, S. and Nadarajah, S.: Extreme Value distribution: Theory and
applications, 1st Edn., Imperial College Press, London, 2000.
Maestro, T., Bielza, M., and Garrido, A.: Hydrological drought index insurance for irrigation districts in Spain, Spanish J. Agric. Res., 14, e0105, https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2016143-8981, 2016.
MAG: Costos de producción del cultivo de arroz en secano y riego, Quito, Ecuador, available at: http://sinagap.agricultura.gob.ec/ (last access: 25 January 2019), 2017.
MAGAP – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganaderia Acuacultura y Pesca: Censo por
Impactos de Invierno 2012, Resultados, Quito, Ecuador, available at:
http://sinagap.agricultura.gob.ec/images/flippingbook/censoimpacto2012/files/assets/downloads/publication.pdf
(last access: 21 March 2018), 2012.
MAGAP – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganaderia Acuacultura y Pesca: Map of
estimated area of rice and maize cultivation in the provinces of Guayas, Santa Elena, Los Rios, Manabí, El Oro and Loja in 2014, Geoportal del
Agro Ecuatoriano, available at:
http://geoportal.agricultura.gob.ec/catalogo_datos/visualizador.html
(last access: 12 November 2018), 2014.
Mcintosh, C., Sarris, A., and Papadopoulos, F.: Productivity, credit, risk,
and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in
Ethiopia, Agric. Econ., 44, 399–417, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12024, 2013.
Medina, N.: Agricultural insurance in Ecuador: Evidence of asymmetric
information, J. Account. Tax., 9, 68–87, https://doi.org/10.5897/JAT2017.0262, 2017.
Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganaderia MAG: Ministerial Agreement No. 168,
Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganaderia, Ecuador, available at:
http://servicios.agricultura.gob.ec/mag01/pdfs/aministerial/2018/2018-168.pdf,
last access: 5 June 2018.
Mobarak, A. M. and Rosenzweig, M. R.: Informal risk sharing, index insurance, and risk taking in developing countries, Am. Econ. Rev., 103, 375–380, 2013.
Montaño, M.: Estudio de la aplicación de Azolla Anabaena como bioabono en el cultivo de arroz en el Litoral ecuatoriano, Rev.
Tecnológica ESPOL, 18, 147–151, 2005.
Moreno, B.: Yield rice in Ecuador, First quarter 2014, Quito, Ecuador,
available at:
http://sinagap.agricultura.gob.ec/pdf/estudios_agroeconomicos/rendimiento_arroz_1er_cuatrimestre.pdf
(last access: 21 May 2019), 2014.
Mude, A., Barrett, C. B., Carter, M. R., Chantarat, S., Ikegami, M., and McPeak, J. G.: Index based livestock insurance for northern Kenya's arid and
semi-arid lands: the Marsabit pilot, SSRN 1844758, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya, 2009.
NASA LP DAAC: MOD13Q1: MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day L3 Global 250 m
Grid SIN V006, USGS Earth Resour. Obs. Sci. Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13Q1.006, 2015.
NOAA: Anomalies of GPCC Precipitation, Phys. Sci. Div. Earth Syst. Res. Lab., available at:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl, last access: 8 February 2018.
Olofsson, P., Foody, G. M., Herold, M., Stehman, S. V, Woodcock, C. E., and
Wulder, M. A.: Good practices for estimating area and assessing accuracy of
land change, Remote Sens. Environ., 148, 42–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.02.015, 2014.
Pardo, A., Merino, A. P., and Castellanos, R. S. M.: Análisis de datos en
psicología II, Pirámide, available at:
https://books.google.es/books?id=k4OWAAAACAAJ (last access: 13 March 2018), 1998.
Patt, A., Peterson, N., Carter, M., Velez, M., Hess, U., and Suarez, P.:
Making index insurance attractive to farmers, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob.
Change, 14, 737–753, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-009-9196-3, 2009.
Pinstrup-Andersen, P.: Food security: definition and measurement, Food
Secur., 1, 5–7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-008-0002-y, 2009.
Polasek, W.: Multivariate Analysis for the Biobehavioral and Social Sciences: A Graphical Approach by Bruce L. Brown, Suzanne B. Hendrix, Dawson W. Hedges, Timothy B. Smith, Int. Stat. Rev., 81, 463–465, https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12042_5, 2013.
Poveda, G. and Andrade, C.: Producción Sostenible De Arroz En La Provincia Del Guayas, Rev. Contrib. a las Ciencias Soc., Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2013.
Quarmby, N. A., Milnes, M., Hindel, T. L., and Sileos, N.: The use of
multi-temporal NDVI measurements from AVHRR data for crop yield estimation
and prediction, Int. J. Remote Sens., 14, 199–210, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169308904332, 1993.
Rao, K.: International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security 2010, Agric. Agric. Sci. Procedia, 1, 193–203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2010.09.024, 2010.
Razali, N. M. and Wah, Y. B.: Power comparisons of Shapiro-Wilk,
Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Lilliefors and Anderson-Darling tests, J. Stat. Model.
Anal., 2, 21–33, 2011.
Rhee, J., Im, J., and Carbone, G. J.: Monitoring agricultural drought for
arid and humid regions using multi-sensor remote sensing data, Remote Sens.
Environ., 114, 2875–2887, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.07.005, 2010.
Ricome, A., Affholder, F., Gérard, F., Muller, B., Poeydebat, C., Quirion, P., and Sall, M.: Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best
use of public funds? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese
groundnut basin, Agric. Syst., 156, 149–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.015, 2017.
Rondeaux, G., Steven, M., and Baret, F.: Optimization of soil-adjusted
vegetation indices, Remote Sens. Environ., 55, 95–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(95)00186-7, 1996.
Sánchez, N., González-Zamora, Á., Martínez-Fernández, J., Piles, M., and Pablos, M.: Integrated remote sensing approach to global
agricultural drought monitoring, Agr. Forest. Meteorol., 259, 141–153,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.04.022, 2018.
Sivakumar, M., Motha, R., and Das, H.: Natural Disasters and Extreme Events
in Agriculture, in: Impacts and Mitigation, edited by: Sivakumar, M., Motha, R., and Das, F., Springer, Berlin, 2005.
Soil Survey Staff: Keys to soil taxonomy, 12th Edn., USDA – Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington, D.C., 2014.
Son, N. T., Chen, C. F., Chen, C. R., Minh, V. Q., and Trung, N. H.: A
comparative analysis of multitemporal MODIS EVI and NDVI data for large-scale rice yield estimation, Agr. Forest. Meteorol., 197, 52–64,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.06.007, 2014.
Takahashi, K., Ikegami, M., Sheahan, M., and Barrett, C. B.: Experimental
Evidence on the Drivers of Index-Based Livestock Insurance Demand in Southern Ethiopia, World Dev., 78, 324–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.039, 2016.
Torbick, N., Chowdhury, D., Salas, W., and Qi, J.: Monitoring rice agriculture across myanmar using time series Sentinel-1 assisted by
Landsat-8 and PALSAR-2, Remote Sens., 9, 119, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020119, 2017.
Valverde-Arias, O., Garrido, A., Valencia, J. L., and Tarquis, A. M.: Using
geographical information system to generate a drought risk map for rice
cultivation: Case study in Babahoyo canton (Ecuador), Biosyst. Eng., 168, 26–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2017.08.007, 2018.
Valverde-Arias, O., Garrido, A., Saa-Requejo, A., Carreño, F., and Tarquis, A. M.: Agro-ecological variability effects on an index-based
insurance design for extreme events, Geoderma, 337, 1341–1350,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.10.043, 2019.
van de Ven, W. P. M. M., van Vliet, R. C. J. A., Schut, F. T., and van Barneveld, E. M.: Access to coverage for high-risks in a competitive
individual health insurance market: via premium rate restrictions or
risk-adjusted premium subsidies?, J. Health Econ., 19, 311–339,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6296(99)00028-4, 2000.
Van Tricht, K., Gobin, A., Gilliams, S., and Piccard, I.: Synergistic Use of
Radar Sentinel-1 and Optical Sentinel-2 Imagery for Crop Mapping: A Case
Study for Belgium, Remote Sens., 10, 1642, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101642, 2018.
Vedenov, D. V. and Barnett, B. J.: Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as
Primary Crop Insurance Instruments, J. Agric. Resour. Econ., 29, 387–403, 2004.
Veloso, A., Mermoz, S., Bouvet, A., Le Toan, T. , Planells, M., Dejoux, J.-F., and Ceschia, E.: Understanding the temporal behavior of crops using
Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2-like data for agricultural applications, Remote
Sens. Environ., 199, 415–426, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.015, 2017.
Vroege, W., Dalhaus, T., and Finger, R.: Index insurances for grasslands – A
review for Europe and North-America, Agric. Syst., 168, 101–111,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.10.009, 2019.
Williams, L. J. and Abdi, H.: Fisher's least significant difference (LSD) test, Encycl. Res. Des., 218, 840–853, 2010.
Xu, J. and Liao, P.: Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural
Output, J. Integr. Agric., 13, 2537–2545, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60674-7, 2014.
Yuanchang, X. and Jiyu, J.: The optimal boundary of political subsidies for
agricultural insurance in welfare economic prospect, Agric. Agric. Sci.
Procedia, 1, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2010.09.020, 2010.
Zhang, X., Chen, N., Li, J., Chen, Z., and Niyogi, D.: Multi-sensor integrated framework and index for agricultural drought monitoring, Remote
Sens. Environ., 188, 141–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.10.045, 2017.
Short summary
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint