Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2020
| 09 Nov 2020
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
Daniela Molinari
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Anna Rita Scorzini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L'Aquila, Via Gronchi 18, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Chiara Arrighi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Piazza San Marco 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
Francesca Carisi
Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Material Engineering, University of Bologna, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, Italy
Fabio Castelli
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Piazza San Marco 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
Alessio Domeneghetti
Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Material Engineering, University of Bologna, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, Italy
Alice Gallazzi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Marta Galliani
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Frédéric Grelot
G-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, IRD, INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
Patric Kellermann
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Heidi Kreibich
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Guilherme S. Mohor
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Markus Mosimann
Institute of Geography, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Stephanie Natho
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Claire Richert
G-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, IRD, INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
Kai Schroeter
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Annegret H. Thieken
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Andreas Paul Zischg
Institute of Geography, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Francesco Ballio
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
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Natasha Petruccelli, Luca Mantecchini, Alice Gallazzi, Daniela Molinari, Mohammed Hammouti, Marco Zazzeri, Simone Sterlacchini, Francesco Ballio, Armando Brath, and Alessio Domeneghetti
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The study illustrates the methodology developed for flood risk assessment for road and railway infrastructures. Through the creation of a detailed database, using different data sources, and the definition of a risk matrix, a risk level (High, Medium, Low and Null) is assigned to each section, considering the physical and functional characteristics of the infrastructure, as well as its relevance and the magnitude of the expected event.
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INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
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This paper presents a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids and reviews the available methodologies, to better understand current modelling approaches, challenges, and limitations. The model adopts an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach to handle the complex damage mechanisms and capture the cascading effects. In doing so, it adapts to different geographical and economic contexts, allowing stakeholders to implement comprehensive damage assessments.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
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The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, 2020
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INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, 2019
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The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
Heidi Kreibich, Thomas Thaler, Thomas Glade, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Daniela Molinari, Karin De Bruijn, Jessica Castillo, Giuseppe T. Aronica, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, 2017
Preprint retracted
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Flood risk estimates are characterised by significant uncertainties; accordingly, evaluating the reliability of such estimates (i.e. validating flood risk models) is crucial. Here, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation with the aim of identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions.
Scira Menoni, Daniela Molinari, Francesco Ballio, Guido Minucci, Ouejdane Mejri, Funda Atun, Nicola Berni, and Claudia Pandolfo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2783–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2783-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a model to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios, which address all the needs that arise after a disaster. In detail, such scenarios (i) are multisectoral, (ii) address the spatial scales relevant for the event at stake, (iii) consider the temporal evolution of damage and (iv) allow damage mechanisms to be understood. The model allows flood mitigation strategies to be optimized, as proved by its use in a case study.
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
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INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
D. Molinari, S. Menoni, G. T. Aronica, F. Ballio, N. Berni, C. Pandolfo, M. Stelluti, and G. Minucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 901–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, 2014
Natasha Petruccelli, Luca Mantecchini, Alice Gallazzi, Daniela Molinari, Mohammed Hammouti, Marco Zazzeri, Simone Sterlacchini, Francesco Ballio, Armando Brath, and Alessio Domeneghetti
Proc. IAHS, 385, 407–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-407-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-407-2024, 2024
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The study illustrates the methodology developed for flood risk assessment for road and railway infrastructures. Through the creation of a detailed database, using different data sources, and the definition of a risk matrix, a risk level (High, Medium, Low and Null) is assigned to each section, considering the physical and functional characteristics of the infrastructure, as well as its relevance and the magnitude of the expected event.
David Nortes Martinez, Frédéric Grelot, Cécile Choley, and Pascal Finaud-Guyot
Proc. IAHS, 385, 247–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-247-2024, 2024
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Classical hydraulic approaches of urban floods do not consider flow exchanges between streets and buildings, which might be introducing a bias in the estimation of property damage. Using coupled hydraulic-economic models we analyze the effect of considering porous buildings in the assessment of material damage at a district level. Our results show potentially significant differences in flood damage when using porous buildings in comparison with more classic approaches.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, 2024
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We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful for decision-making. We propose a new validation framework that considers not only technical aspects but also the real-world context in which decisions are made. By applying this framework to flood emergency planning, we demonstrate its practicality.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
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Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15,000 potential floods riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events were reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
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A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
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Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Boutzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
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INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
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Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Panagiotis Asaridis and Daniela Molinari
Adv. Geosci., 61, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-61-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-61-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids and reviews the available methodologies, to better understand current modelling approaches, challenges, and limitations. The model adopts an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach to handle the complex damage mechanisms and capture the cascading effects. In doing so, it adapts to different geographical and economic contexts, allowing stakeholders to implement comprehensive damage assessments.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
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It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
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The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Brunella Bonaccorso, Carmelo Cammalleri, Athanasios Loukas, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1857–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, 2022
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Francisco Peña, Fernando Nardi, Assefa Melesse, Jayantha Obeysekera, Fabio Castelli, René M. Price, Todd Crowl, and Noemi Gonzalez-Ramirez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 775–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, 2022
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Groundwater-induced flooding, a rare phenomenon that is increasing in low-elevation coastal cities due to higher water tables, is often neglected in flood risk mapping due to its sporadic frequency and considerably lower severity with respect to other flood hazards. A loosely coupled flood model is used to simulate the interplay between surface and subsurface flooding mechanisms simultaneously. This work opens new horizons on the development of compound flood models from a holistic perspective.
Antonio Annis, Fernando Nardi, and Fabio Castelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1019–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1019-2022, 2022
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In this work, we proposed a multi-source data assimilation framework for near-real-time flood mapping. We used a quasi-2D hydraulic model to update model states by injecting both stage gauge observations and satellite-derived flood extents. Results showed improvements in terms of water level prediction and reduction of flood extent uncertainty when assimilating both stage gauges and satellite images with respect to the disjoint assimilation of both observations.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
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Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Valeria Cigala, Giulia Roder, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, 2022
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Non-male scientists constitute a minority in the geoscience professional environment, and they are underrepresented in disaster risk reduction planning. So far the international agenda has failed to effectively promote gender inclusion in disaster policy, preventing non-male scientists from career development and recognition. Here we share the thoughts, experiences, and priorities of women and non-binary scientists as a starting point to expand the discourse and promote intersectional research.
Philipp Wanner, Noemi Buri, Kevin Wyss, Andreas Zischg, Rolf Weingartner, Jan Baumgartner, Benjamin Berger, and Christoph Wanner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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In this study, we quantified the glacial meltwater contribution to mountainous streams using high-resolution stable water isotope analysis. The glacial meltwater made up almost 28 % of the annual mountainous stream discharges. This high contribution demonstrates that the mountainous streamflow regimes will change in the future when the glacial meltwater contribution will disappear due to global warming posing a major challenge for hydropower energy production in mountainous regions.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, 2021
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Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, 2021
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Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
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We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
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Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
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Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, 2020
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INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
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The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
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The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
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For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, 2020
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Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, 2019
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The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
Claire Richert, Hélène Boisgontier, and Frédéric Grelot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2525–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2525-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2525-2019, 2019
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To limit the losses due to floods, people can adopt measures to protect their dwellings. We assessed the cost and efficacy of such measures using computer modelling. We found that the benefits of most of the measures studied are unlikely to exceed their cost when they are taken in dwellings that are not exposed to frequent floods (probability of occurrence of less than 1 / 100 per year). It is also often less expensive to use building materials adapted to floods than other common materials.
Mattia Amadio, Anna Rita Scorzini, Francesca Carisi, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Alessio Domeneghetti, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, 2019
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Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different complexities. We compared the performances of expert-based and empirical damage models on three major flood events in northern Italy. Our findings suggest that multivariate models have better potential to provide reliable damage estimates if extensive ancillary characterisation data are available. Expert-based approaches are better suited for transferability compared to empirically based approaches.
Heidi Kreibich, Thomas Thaler, Thomas Glade, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
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We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Veronika Röthlisberger, Andreas P. Zischg, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2431–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2431-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2431-2018, 2018
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We investigate the role of building value estimation schemes within flood exposure analyses on regional to national scales. Our results for Switzerland suggest that models based on individual buildings produce more reliable results than models based on surface area, but only if they consider the buildings' volume. Simple models tend to underestimate the exposure, which results in suboptimal allocation of resources for protection measures in decision making processes based on cost efficiency.
Denise Taffarello, Raghavan Srinivasan, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, João Luis Bittencourt Guimarães, Maria do Carmo Calijuri, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4699–4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018, 2018
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This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land uses, related to ecosystem-based adaptation in subtropical headwaters. Using a spatially semi-distributed model, nitrate, total phosphorous loads and sediments yield were modeled in Brazilian catchments ranging from 7 to 1037 km2. In short, we proposed the new hydrologic services index as a composite metric comparing water pollution levels for reference catchments related to the grey water footprint and water yield.
Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018
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By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
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The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
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We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018
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Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Jonas Laudan, Viktor Rözer, Tobias Sieg, Kristin Vogel, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017
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The flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany, in May 2016 was a severe and rather unfamiliar event which caused high monetary losses and heavy damage to buildings. Between 7 and 8 June we investigated all affected houses and conducted damage assessment to gain insights into the damage driving factors of those events. We conclude that the damage driving factors are complex and also differ partly from those of riverine floods, pointing out the need for further research.
Chiara Arrighi, Fabio Tarani, Enrico Vicario, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2109–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2109-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2109-2017, 2017
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Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Due to their usual location near rivers, water utilities are particularly exposed; in case of flood, the inundation of the facility can damage equipment and cause power outages. Such impact lead to costly repairs and disruption of service affecting indirectly people outside the inundated area. In this work a method to estimate the impact of floods on a water distribution system is introduced and applied to a case study.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
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Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Diego A. Guzmám, Guilherme S. Mohor, Denise Taffarello, and Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-615, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security. Within the context of managing the financial resilience, we have explored how to evaluate the water utility company economic profit losses to face the hydrological drought impacts. Thus, the main objective of this work is propose a methodology to integrate the coevolution of anthropogenic factors and climate, which directly influence water availability.
Daniela Molinari, Karin De Bruijn, Jessica Castillo, Giuseppe T. Aronica, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, 2017
Preprint retracted
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Flood risk estimates are characterised by significant uncertainties; accordingly, evaluating the reliability of such estimates (i.e. validating flood risk models) is crucial. Here, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation with the aim of identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions.
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Chiara Arrighi, Hocine Oumeraci, and Fabio Castelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-515-2017, 2017
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In developed countries, the majority of fatalities during floods occurs as a consequence of inappropriate high-risk behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. This work addresses pedestrians' instability in floodwaters. It analyses both the contribution of flood and human physical characteristics in the loss of stability highlighting the key role of subject height (submergence) and flow regime. The method consists of a re-analysis of experiments and numerical modelling.
Scira Menoni, Daniela Molinari, Francesco Ballio, Guido Minucci, Ouejdane Mejri, Funda Atun, Nicola Berni, and Claudia Pandolfo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2783–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2783-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a model to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios, which address all the needs that arise after a disaster. In detail, such scenarios (i) are multisectoral, (ii) address the spatial scales relevant for the event at stake, (iii) consider the temporal evolution of damage and (iv) allow damage mechanisms to be understood. The model allows flood mitigation strategies to be optimized, as proved by its use in a case study.
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
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INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
Patric Kellermann, Christine Schönberger, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2357–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, 2016
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
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In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Annegret H. Thieken, Tina Bessel, Sarah Kienzler, Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Sebastian Pisi, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016
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In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in central Europe, especially in Germany. The paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data, and how good data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international level, e.g. by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
Francesca Carisi, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Attilio Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 373, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, 2016
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Can differential land-subsidence significantly alter river flooding dynamics, and thus flood risk in flood prone areas? In the area around Ravenna, in Italy, that experimented a cumulative drop of more than 1.5 m after World War II due to groundwater pumping and gas production platforms, we compared the actual effects on flood-hazard dynamics of differential land-subsidence relative to those associated with other man-made topographic alterations, which proved to be much more significant.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, 2016
Chiara Arrighi, Nicolas Huybrechts, Abdellatif Ouahsine, Patrick Chassé, Hocine Oumeraci, and Fabio Castelli
Proc. IAHS, 373, 143–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-143-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-143-2016, 2016
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Many flood events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during an inundation occurs in a vehicle. So far, only experimental test on small scale cars have been carried out to identify the critical combinations of water depth and velocity causing the onset of motion. A dimensionless approach is here proposed to define a clearer identification of stable and unstable conditions for flooded vehicles.
Simone Persiano, Attilio Castellarin, Jose Luis Salinas, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Armando Brath
Proc. IAHS, 373, 95–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, 2016
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The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review reference procedures for design flood estimation. Our study focuses on Triveneto (Italy) and proposes an update of the existing reference procedure by properly considering climate and scale controls on flood frequency. Moreover, the study highlights the remarkable influence of a single extreme-floods year on analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime.
Philip Bubeck, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Hans de Moel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1005–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016, 2016
J. Fohringer, D. Dransch, H. Kreibich, and K. Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2725–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2725-2015, 2015
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During and shortly after a disaster, data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. The case study of the June 2013 flood in the city of Dresden shows that social media may help to bridge the information gap when traditional data sources are lacking or are sparse.
P. Kellermann, A. Schöbel, G. Kundela, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2485–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, 2015
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
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A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk of river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock, which is spatially and temporally variable.
F. Carisi, A. Domeneghetti, and A. Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 370, 209–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, 2015
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Our study proposes simplified graphical tools (Hypsometric Vulnerability Curves) for assessing the recent dynamics of the flood vulnerability and risk over a large floodable area along the River Po, Northern Italy, and for defining sustainable flood-risk mitigation strategies. We assess the accuracy of the proposed methodology, based on inundation scenarios simulated with a quasi-2D model, by means of a comparison with a traditional approach relying on the simulations of a to a fully-2D model.
S. Kienzler, I. Pech, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
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Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
P. Hudson, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, P. Bubeck, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1731–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, 2014
D. Molinari, S. Menoni, G. T. Aronica, F. Ballio, N. Berni, C. Pandolfo, M. Stelluti, and G. Minucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 901–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, 2014
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
H. Cammerer, A. H. Thieken, and J. Lammel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013
C. Pfurtscheller and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2619–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, 2013
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
P. Brémond, F. Grelot, and A.-L. Agenais
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2493–2512, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2493-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2493-2013, 2013
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
I. Seifert, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1691–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1691-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1691-2013, 2013
C. Arrighi, M. Brugioni, F. Castelli, S. Franceschini, and B. Mazzanti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1375–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1375-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
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Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
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Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
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A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
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Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
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We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, 2023
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The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of Life Cycle Consequence (LCCon) Analysis.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Transboundary river management for inter-city or inter province become very critical issue due to the ego sectoral and lack of responsibility sharing. This paper has recognized the most strategic flood risk driver from key stakeholder perspective.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
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Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
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Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
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The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
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This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
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Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
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In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
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This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
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This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
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This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
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The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Cited articles
Amadio, M., Scorzini, A. R., Carisi, F., Essenfelder, A. H., Domeneghetti, A., Mysiak, J., and Castellarin, A.: Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, 2019.
André, C., Monfort, D., Bouzit, M., and Vinchon, C.: Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2003–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2003-2013, 2013.
Andreani, M., Gaikwad, A. J., Ganju, S., Gera, B., Grigoryev, S., Herranz, L. E., Huhtanen, R., Kale, V., Kanaev, A., Kapulla, R., Kelm, S., Kim, J., Nishimurai, T., Paladino, D., Paranjape, S., Schramm, B., Sharabi, M., Shen, F., Wei, B., Yan, D., and Zhang, R.:
Synthesis of a CFD benchmark exercise based on a test in the PANDA facility addressing the stratification erosion by a vertical jet in presence of a flow obstruction,
Nucl. Eng. Des.,
354, 110177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110177, 2019.
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.:
Flood risk assessment in art cities: the exemplary case of Florence (Italy),
J. Flood Risk Manage.,
11, 616–631, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12226, 2018a.
Arrighi, C., Rossi, L., Trasforini, E., Rudari, R., Ferraris, L., Brugioni, M., Franceschini, S., and Castelli, F.:
Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform,
J. Environ. Manage.,
207, 92–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.017, 2018b.
Ballio, F., Molinari, D., Minucci, G., Mazuran, M., Arias Munoz, C., Menoni, S., Atun, F., Ardagna, D., Berni, N., and Pandolfo, C.:
The RISPOSTA procedure for the collection, storage and analysis of high quality, consistent and reliable damage data in the aftermath of floods,
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CART: Classification and Regression Trees,
Wadsworth, Belmont, CA, 1984.
Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur:
“Hochwasserkatastrophe 2013 – Bericht über die Verwendung der Finanzhilfe aus dem EU-Solidaritätsfonds zur Bewältigung der durch das Hochwasser 2013 in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland entstandenen Schäden der öffentlichen Hand”,
Projektgruppe Hochwasser, Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur, Berlin,
available at: https://www.bmvi.de/SharedDocs/DE/Anlage/WS/hochwasserkatastrophe-2013-bericht.pdf?__blob=publicationFile (last access: 13 January 2020), 2016.
Cammerer, H., Thieken, A. H., and Lammel, J.: Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013.
Carisi, F., Schröter, K., Domeneghetti, A., Kreibich, H., and Castellarin, A.: Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018.
Cellerino, R.:
L'Italia delle alluvioni. Un'analisi economica,
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CEPRI – Centre Européen de Prévention et de gestion des Risques d'Inondation: Evaluation des dommages liés aux inondations sur les logements, 2014a.
CEPRI – Centre Européen de Prévention et de gestion des Risques d'Inondation: Evaluation des dommages aux logements liés aux submersions marines, 2014b.
Deutscher Bundestag:
“Bericht zur Flutkatastrophe 2013: Katastrophenhilfe, Entschädigung, Wiederaufbau”, Berlin,
available at: http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/17/147/1714743.pdf (last access: 13 January 2020), 2013.
Dottori, F., Figueiredo, R., Martina, M. L. V., Molinari, D., and Scorzini, A. R.: INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016.
Dutta, D., Herath, S., and Musiake, K.:
A mathematical model for flood loss estimation,
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277, 24–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00084-2, 2003.
Figueiredo, R., Schröter, K., Weiss-Motz, A., Martina, M. L. V., and Kreibich, H.: Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018.
Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., Ortlepp, R., Schinke, R., and Papathoma-Köhle, M.:
Recent advances in vulnerability assessment for the built environment exposed to torrential hazards: Challenges and the way forward,
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575, 587–595, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.067, 2019a.
Fuchs, S., Heiser, M., Schlögl, M., Zischg, A., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Keiler, M.:
Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas,
Environ. Modell. Softw.,
117, 176–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.026, 2019b.
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schroter, K.:
A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking,
PLoS ONE,
11, e0159791, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016.
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Jonkman, S. N., Bočkarjova, M., Kok, M., and Bernardini, P.:
Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands,
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Krogstad, P. Å. and Eriksen, P. E.:
“Blind test” calculations of the performance and wake development for a model wind turbine,
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Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., and Schmidtke, R.: Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 153–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004, 2004.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., and Lall, U.: Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013.
Meyer, V., Becker, N., Markantonis, V., Schwarze, R., van den Bergh, J. C. J. M., Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Ciavola, P., Genovese, E., Green, C., Hallegatte, S., Kreibich, H., Lequeux, Q., Logar, I., Papyrakis, E., Pfurtscheller, C., Poussin, J., Przyluski, V., Thieken, A. H., and Viavattene, C.: Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013.
Molinari, D. and Scorzini A. R.:
On the Influence of Input Data Quality to Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model,
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Validation of flood risk models: Current practice and possible improvements,
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Implementation and adaptation of a macro-scale method to assess and monitor direct economic losses caused by natural hazards,
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Ransley, E., Yan, S., Brown, S. A., Mai, T., Graham, D., Ma, Q., Musiedlak, P.-H., Engsig-Karup, A. P., Eskilsson, C., Li, Q., Wang, J., Xie, Z., Venkatachalam, S., Stoesser, T., Zhuang, Y., Li, Q., Wan, D., Chen, G., Chen, H., Qian, L., Ma, Z., Mingham, C., Causon, D., Gatin, I., Jasak, H., Vukcevic, V., Downie, S., Higuera, P., Buldakov, E., Stagonas, D., Chen, Q., Zang, J., and Greaves, D.:
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Int. J. Offshore Polar,
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Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of...
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