Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Research article
09 Nov 2020
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2020

Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test

Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio

Related authors

The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696,,, 2024
Short summary
Qualitative flood risk assessment for road and railway infrastructures: the experience of the MOVIDA project
Natasha Petruccelli, Luca Mantecchini, Alice Gallazzi, Daniela Molinari, Mohammed Hammouti, Marco Zazzeri, Simone Sterlacchini, Francesco Ballio, Armando Brath, and Alessio Domeneghetti
Proc. IAHS, 385, 407–413,,, 2024
Short summary
A conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids
Panagiotis Asaridis and Daniela Molinari
Adv. Geosci., 61, 1–21,,, 2023
Short summary
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823,,, 2022
Short summary
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761,,, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740,,, 2024
Short summary
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500,,, 2024
Short summary
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318,,, 2024
Short summary
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064,,, 2024
Short summary
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Amadio, M., Scorzini, A. R., Carisi, F., Essenfelder, A. H., Domeneghetti, A., Mysiak, J., and Castellarin, A.: Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661–678,, 2019. 
André, C., Monfort, D., Bouzit, M., and Vinchon, C.: Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2003–2012,, 2013. 
Andreani, M., Gaikwad, A. J., Ganju, S., Gera, B., Grigoryev, S., Herranz, L. E., Huhtanen, R., Kale, V., Kanaev, A., Kapulla, R., Kelm, S., Kim, J., Nishimurai, T., Paladino, D., Paranjape, S., Schramm, B., Sharabi, M., Shen, F., Wei, B., Yan, D., and Zhang, R.: Synthesis of a CFD benchmark exercise based on a test in the PANDA facility addressing the stratification erosion by a vertical jet in presence of a flow obstruction, Nucl. Eng. Des., 354, 110177,, 2019. 
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.: Flood risk assessment in art cities: the exemplary case of Florence (Italy), J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, 616–631,, 2018a. 
Arrighi, C., Rossi, L., Trasforini, E., Rudari, R., Ferraris, L., Brugioni, M., Franceschini, S., and Castelli, F.: Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform, J. Environ. Manage., 207, 92–104,, 2018b. 
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Final-revised paper