Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
Research article
 | 
09 Nov 2020
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2020

Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test

Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio

Related authors

Survey data of damaged residential buildings and economic activities from the 2022 record-breaking flood in the Marche region, Italy
Sara Rrokaj, Chiara Arrighi, Marta Ballocci, Gabriele Bertoli, Francesca da Porto, Claudia De Lucia, Mario Di Bacco, Paola Di Fluri, Alessio Domeneghetti, Marco Donà, Alice Gallazzi, Andrea Gennaro, Gianluca Lelli, Sara Mozzon, Natasha Petruccelli, Elisa Saler, Anna Rita Scorzini, Simone Sterlacchini, Gaia Treglia, Debora Voltolina, Marco Zazzeri, and Daniela Molinari
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-358,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-358, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
INSYDE-content: a synthetic, multi-variable flood damage model to household contents
Pradeep Acharya, Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1413,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1413, 2025
Short summary
Econometric Modelling for Estimating Direct Flood Damage to Firms: A Local-Scale Approach Using Post-Event Records in Italy
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017, 2024
Short summary
Preface: Advances in pluvial and fluvial flood forecasting and assessment and flood risk management
Cristina Prieto, Dhruvesh Patel, Dawei Han, Benjamin Dewals, Michaela Bray, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3381–3386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3381-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3381-2024, 2024
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Amadio, M., Scorzini, A. R., Carisi, F., Essenfelder, A. H., Domeneghetti, A., Mysiak, J., and Castellarin, A.: Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, 2019. 
André, C., Monfort, D., Bouzit, M., and Vinchon, C.: Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2003–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2003-2013, 2013. 
Andreani, M., Gaikwad, A. J., Ganju, S., Gera, B., Grigoryev, S., Herranz, L. E., Huhtanen, R., Kale, V., Kanaev, A., Kapulla, R., Kelm, S., Kim, J., Nishimurai, T., Paladino, D., Paranjape, S., Schramm, B., Sharabi, M., Shen, F., Wei, B., Yan, D., and Zhang, R.: Synthesis of a CFD benchmark exercise based on a test in the PANDA facility addressing the stratification erosion by a vertical jet in presence of a flow obstruction, Nucl. Eng. Des., 354, 110177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110177, 2019. 
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.: Flood risk assessment in art cities: the exemplary case of Florence (Italy), J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, 616–631, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12226, 2018a. 
Arrighi, C., Rossi, L., Trasforini, E., Rudari, R., Ferraris, L., Brugioni, M., Franceschini, S., and Castelli, F.: Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform, J. Environ. Manage., 207, 92–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.017, 2018b. 
Download
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint