Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Jun 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Jun 2020
| 30 Jun 2020
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Research and Development, Norwegian Meteorological
Institute, Oslo, 0313, Norway
Ketil Isaksen
Department of Research and Development, Norwegian Meteorological
Institute, Oslo, 0313, Norway
Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen
Department of Mobility, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, 0349, Norway
Irene Brox Nilsen
Department of Hydrology, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 0301, Norway
Related authors
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Regula Frauenfelder, Ketil Isaksen, Matthew J. Lato, and Jeannette Noetzli
The Cryosphere, 12, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On 26 June 2008, a rock avalanche with a volume of ca. 500 000 m3 detached in the north-east facing slope of Polvartinden, a high-alpine peak in northern Norway. Ice was observed in the failure zone shortly after the rock avalanche, leading to the assumption that degrading permafrost might have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche. Here, we present a four-year series of temperature measurements from the site and subsequent temperature modelling results.
John Kochendorfer, Rodica Nitu, Mareile Wolff, Eva Mekis, Roy Rasmussen, Bruce Baker, Michael E. Earle, Audrey Reverdin, Kai Wong, Craig D. Smith, Daqing Yang, Yves-Alain Roulet, Tilden Meyers, Samuel Buisan, Ketil Isaksen, Ragnar Brækkan, Scott Landolt, and Al Jachcik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1437-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the effects of wind, precipitation gauges typically underestimate the amount of precipitation that occurs as snow. Measurements recorded during a World Meteorological Organization intercomparison of precipitation gauges were used to evaluate and improve the adjustments that are available to address this issue. Adjustments for specific types of precipitation gauges and wind shields were tested and recommended.
Regula Frauenfelder, Anders Solheim, Ketil Isaksen, Bård Romstad, Anita V. Dyrrdal, Kristine H. H. Ekseth, Alf Harbitz, Carl B. Harbitz, Jan Erik Haugen, Hans Olav Hygen, Hilde Haakenstad, Christian Jaedicke, Árni Jónsson, Ronny Klæboe, Johanna Ludvigsen, Nele M. Meyer, Trude Rauken, Reidun G. Skaland, Kjetil Sverdrup-Thygeson, Asbjørn Aaheim, Heidi Bjordal, and Per-Anton Fevang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-437, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from the project
Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway. Our analyses document an increase in frequency and intensity of e.g. precipitation and wind during the last decades, and that these observed changes will continue throughout the 21st century. We could show that ≥ 27 % of main roads and 31 % of railroads are exposed to rockfall and avalanches. Pro-actively facing such risks will increase resilience and cost-efficiency of the transport infrastructure.
John Kochendorfer, Rodica Nitu, Mareile Wolff, Eva Mekis, Roy Rasmussen, Bruce Baker, Michael E. Earle, Audrey Reverdin, Kai Wong, Craig D. Smith, Daqing Yang, Yves-Alain Roulet, Samuel Buisan, Timo Laine, Gyuwon Lee, Jose Luis C. Aceituno, Javier Alastrué, Ketil Isaksen, Tilden Meyers, Ragnar Brækkan, Scott Landolt, Al Jachcik, and Antti Poikonen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation measurements were combined from eight separate precipitation testbeds to create multi-site transfer functions for the correction of unshielded and single-Alter-shielded precipitation gauge measurements. Site-specific errors and more universally applicable corrections were created from these WMO-SPICE measurements. The importance and magnitude of such wind speed corrections were demonstrated.
John Kochendorfer, Roy Rasmussen, Mareile Wolff, Bruce Baker, Mark E. Hall, Tilden Meyers, Scott Landolt, Al Jachcik, Ketil Isaksen, Ragnar Brækkan, and Ronald Leeper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1973–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1973-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1973-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Snowfall measurements recorded using precipitation gauges are subject to significant underestimation due to the effects of wind. Using measurements recorded at two different precipitation test beds, corrections for unshielded gauges and gauges within different types of windshields were developed and tested. Using the new corrections, uncorrectable errors were quantified, and measurement biases were successfully eliminated.
Rune Strand Ødegård, Atle Nesje, Ketil Isaksen, Liss Marie Andreassen, Trond Eiken, Margit Schwikowski, and Chiara Uglietti
The Cryosphere, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-17-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Despite numerous spectacular archaeological discoveries worldwide related to melting ice, governing processes related to ice patch development are still largely unexplored. We present new results from Jotunheimen in central southern Norway showing that the Juvfonne ice patch has existed continuously since ca. 7600 cal years BP. This is the oldest dating of ice in mainland Norway. Moss mats along the margin of Juvfonne in 2014 were covered by the expanding ice patch about 2000 years ago.
M. A. Wolff, K. Isaksen, A. Petersen-Øverleir, K. Ødemark, T. Reitan, and R. Brækkan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-951-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-951-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The article reports on measurements, analysis and results of a Norwegian field study aimed to adjust automatic precipitation measurements for under-catch during windy conditions. An unique data set could be collected, documenting the under-catch of snow at very high wind speeds for the first time. A new continuous adjustment function for precipitation measured by an automated gauge covering all three precipitation types (snow, mixed and rain) was established.
K. Gisnås, S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, T. Litherland, K. Isaksen, J. Boike, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 8, 2063–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Applying pySTEPS optical flow algorithms to improve convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of Central Europe
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Rain-on-snow response to a warmer Pyrenees
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-158, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause large damages to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Joseph Albert Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1404, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short time scales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~60 km) whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~200 km).
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-99, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in others the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-91, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Influence of model resolution and settings on heat wave reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser resolution models with more general settings. It is shown that neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings add a significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-62, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. An altering seasonality with the years is regional divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions outstand with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-51, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we assess the impact of climate change on fire danger trends in different landscapes of Central Europe by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today’s threshold for a 100-year FWI event, will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. Further, high fire danger becomes the mean condition by 2099. This study highlights Central Europe’s potential for severe fire events from a meteorological perspective.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-178, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year, but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Cited articles
AMAP: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) (2017), Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, xiv + 269 pp.,
2017.
Anderson, A. and Chapman, L.: The use of a temporal analogue to predict
future traffic accidents and winter road conditions in Sweden, Meteorol. Appl.,
18, 125–136, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.186, 2011.
Arvidsson, A. K., Blomqvist, G., and Öberg, G.: The impact of climate
change on the use of anti- and de-icing salt in Sweden, in: Transportation
Research Circular: Winter Maintenance and Surface Transportation Weather, available at: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec162.pdf (last access: 24 June 2020),
2012.
Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Trappmann, D., Madrigal-González, J.,
Eckert, N., and Stoffel, M.: Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in
the Western Himalayas, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 3410–3415, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716913115, 2018.
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm tracks and climate
change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, 2006.
Bergström, S.: The development of a snow routine for theHBV-2 model, Nordic Hydrol., 2, 73–92, 1975.
Bremnes, J. B.: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using local quantile
regression, Wind Energy, 7, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.107, 2004.
Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias Correction of GCM
Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in
Quantiles and Extremes?, J. Climate, 28, 6938–6959,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015.
Castebrunet, H., Eckert, N., Giraud, G., Durand, Y., and Morin, S.: Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods, The Cryosphere, 8, 1673–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014, 2014.
Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent Arctic amplification and extremem
mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234, 2014.
Davis, R. E. D., Elder, K., Howlett, D., and Bouzaglou, E.: Relating storm and weather factors to dry slab avalanche activity at Alta, Utah, and Mammoth Mountain, California, using classification and regression trees, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 30, 79–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00032-4, 1999.
Dyrrdal, A. V., Isaksen, K., Hygen, H. O., and Meyer, N. K.: Changes in
meteorological variables that can trigger natural hazards in Norway, Clim.
Res., 55, 153–165, 2012.
Eckerstorfer, M., Malnes, E., and Müller, K.: A complete snow avalanche
activity record from a Norwegian forecasting region using Sentinel-1
satellite-radar data, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 144, 39–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.08.004, 2017.
Eckert, N., Keylock, C. J., Castebrunet, H., Lavigne, A., and Naaim, M.:
Temporal trends in avalanche activity in the French Alps and subregions:
from occurrences and runout altitudes to unsteady return periods, J.
Glaciol., 59, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J091, 2013.
Engeset, R. V., Tveito, O. E., Alfnes, E., Mengistu, Z., Udnæs, H. C.,
Isaksen, K., and Førland, E. J.: Snow map system for Norway, in: Proc . XXIII Nord Hydrol Conf, 8–12 August 2004, Tallinn, Estonia, NHP Report, 48, 112–121, 2004.
Frauenfelder, R., Solheim, A., Isaksen, K., Romstad, B., Dyrrdal, A. V.,
Ekseth, K. H. H., Gangstø, R., Harbitz, A., Harbitz, C. B., Haugen, J. E.,
Hygen, H. O., Haakenstad, H., Jaedicke, C., Jónsson, Á., Klæboe,
R., Ludvigsen, J., Meyer, N. M., Rauken, T., Sverdrup-Thygeson, K., and
Aaheim, A.: Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Infrastructure in Norway,
Report 20091808-01-R, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2013.
Geiger, R., Aron, R. H., and Todhunter, P.: The Climate Near the Ground,
Springer Science and Business Media, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2007.
Gillett, N. P., Graf, H. F., and Osborn, T. J.: Climate Change and the North
Atlantic Oscillation, in: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic
Significance and Environmental Impact, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M., https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM09, 2013.
Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E. J., Haddeland, I., Hisdal, H., Lawrence,
D., Mayer, S., Nesje, A., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Sandven, S., Sandø, A. B.,
Sorteberg, A., and Ådlandsvik, B.: Climate in Norway 2100 – a knowledge
base for climate adaptation, Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, Oslo, Report
1/2017, 2017.
Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E. J., Hisdal, H., Mayer, S., Sandø, A. B., and
Sorteberg, A.: Climate in Svalbard 2100 – a knowledge base for climate
adaptation, Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, Oslo, Report 1/2019, 207 pp.,
2019.
Hendrikx, J., Owens, I., Carran, W., and Carran, A.: Avalanche activity in
an extreme maritime climate: The application of classification trees for
forecasting, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 43, 104–116,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2005.05.006, 2005.
Hisdal, H., Vikhamar Schuler, D., Førland, E. J., and Nilsen, I. B.:
Klimaprofiler for fylker (Climate fact sheets for counties), NCCS report no. 3/2017, available at:
https://cms.met.no/site/2/klimaservicesenteret/rapporter-og-publikasjoner/_attachment/12110?_ts=15ddfbccf32 (last access: 24 June 2020), 2017.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A. I., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., Weyer, N. M., in press., 2020.
Holand, I. S. and Rød, J. K.: Kartlegging av infrastruktursårbarhet, in: Mot en Farligere Fremtid? Om
Klimaendringer, Sårbarhet og Tilpasning i Norge, edited by: Bye, L. M, Lein, H., and Rød, J. K.,
Akademika, Trondheim, Norway, 157–174, 2013.
Hovelsrud, G. K., Karlsson, M., and Olsen, J.: Prepared and flexible: Local
adaptation strategies for avalanche risk, Cogent Social Sciences, 4, 1460899,
https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2018.1460899, 2018.
Ivancic, T. J. and Shaw, S. B.: A U.S.-based analysis of the ability of the
Clausius-Claperon relationship to explain changes in extreme rainfall with
changing temperature, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3066–3078,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024288, 2016.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer,
L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G.,
Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A.,
Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N.,
Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C.,
Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D.,
Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C.,
Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: New
high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research,
Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, 2014.
Jacobsen, J. K. S.: Fornemmelser for snø (Sense of snow), Ottar 329 –
2020, 33–34, 2020.
Jacobsen, J. K. S., Leiren, M. D., and Saarinen, J.: Natural hazard
experiences and adaptations, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 70,
292–305, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2016.1238847, 2016.
Jaedicke, C., Solheim, A., Blikra, L. H., Stalsberg, K., Sorteberg, A., Aaheim, A., Kronholm, K., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Isaksen, K., Sletten, K., Kristensen, K., Barstad, I., Melchiorre, C., Høydal, Ø. A., and Mestl, H.: Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 893–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-893-2008, 2008.
Jaedicke, C., Lied, K., and Kronholm, K.: Integrated database for rapid mass movements in Norway, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 469–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-469-2009, 2009.
Jamieson, B., Bellaire, S., and Sinickas, A.: Climate change and planning
for snow avalanches in transportation corridors in western Canada, in: GEO
Ottawa 2017, available at:
https://schulich.ucalgary.ca/asarc/files/asarc/snowavalanchetrendstransporationcorridors_geoottawa2017_jamiesonetal_1july2017.pdf (last access: 24 June 2020),
2017.
Kalsnes, B., Nadim, F., Hermanns, R., Hygen, H., Petkovic, G., Dolva, B.,
and Høgvold, D.: Landslide risk management in Norway, edited by: Lacasse, K. H. S. and
Picarelli, L., Slope safety preparedness for impact of climate change,
CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 215–252, 2016.
Kerguillec, R.: Seasonal distribution and variability of atmospheric
freeze/thaw cycles in Norway over the last six decades (1950–2013),Boreas,
44, 526–542, https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12113, 2015.
Kristensen, L. L., Jensen, O. A., Devoli, G., Rustad, B. K., Verhage, A.,
Viklund, M., and Larsen, J. O.: Terminologi for naturfare (in English:
Terminology for natural hazards), NVE, Oslo, NVE report 90/2015, 2015.
Kronholm, K., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Jaedicke, C., Isaksen, K., Sorteberg,
A., and Kristensen, K: Forecasting snow avalanche days from meteorological
data using classification trees; Grasdalen, western Norway, Proceedings, International snow science workshop, Telluride, Colorado, 2006.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Lee, S.-S., Lee, J.-Y., Wang, B., Ha, K.-J., Heo, K.-Y., Jin, F.-F., Straus,
D., and Shukla, J.: Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over
the North Pacific and North Atlantic, Clim. Dynam., 39, 313–327,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1188-9, 2012.
Leiren, M. D. and Jacobsen, J. K. S.: Silos as barriers to public sector
climate adaptation and preparedness: Insights from road closures in Norway.
Local Gov. Stud., 44, 492–511, https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2018.1465933,
2018.
Lussana, C., Tveito, O.-E., and Uboldi, F.: Three-dimensional spatial
interpolation of two-meter temperature over Norway: Temperature spatial
interpolation over Norway, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 144, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3208, 2018a.
Lussana, C., Saloranta, T., Skaugen, T., Magnusson, J., Tveito, O. E., and Andersen, J.: seNorge2 daily precipitation, an observational gridded dataset over Norway from 1957 to the present day, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-235-2018, 2018b.
Müller, M., Homleid, M., Ivarsson, K.-I., Kølzow, M.A.Ø., Lindskog, M., Midtbø, K.H., Andrae, U., Aspelien, T., Berggren, L., Bjørge, D., Dahlgren, P., Kristiansen, J., Randriamampianina, R., Ridal, M., and Vignes, O.: AROME-MetCoOp: A Nordic convective-scale operational weather prediction model, Weather Forecast., 32, 609627, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0099.1, 2017.
Naaim, M., Durand, Y., Eckert N., and Chambon G.: Dense avalanche friction
coefficients: Influence of physical properties of snow, J. Glaciol., 59,
771–782, 2013.
Naaim, M., Eckert, N., Giraud, G., Faug, T., Chambon, G., Naaim-Bouvet, F.,
and Richard, D.: Impact of climate warming on avalanche activity in French
Alps and increase of proportion of wet snow avalanches, La Houille Blanche,
6, 12–20, https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2016055, 2016.
Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS): Climate projection downloading tool, available at: https://nedlasting.nve.no/klimadata/kss, last access: 15 January 2020 (in Norwegian).
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI): Impacts of extreme weather events on
infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk) – Final report to NFR-prosjekt 200689, edited by:
Frauenfelder, R., Solheim, A., Isaksen, K., Romstad, B., Dyrrdal, A. V.,
Gangstø, R., Harbitz, A., Harbitz, C. B., Haugen, J. E., Hygen, H. O.,
Haakenstad, H., Jaedicke, C., Jónsson, Á., Klæboe, R.,
Ludvigsen, J., Meyer, N. M., Rauken, R., Sverdrup-Thygeson, K., and Aaheim, A., NGI rapport no. 20091808-01-R, Oslo, 94 pp. + Appendix, 2013.
Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment: Klimatilpasning i Norge
(White paper 33 (2012–2013) on climate adaptation in Norway), Norwegian
Ministry of Climate and Environment, Oslo, Norway, available at: https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/e5e7872303544ae38bdbdc82aa0446d8/no/pdfs/stm201220130033000dddpdfs.pdf (last access: 24 June 2020), 2013.
NPRA: Lærebok Drift og vedlikehold av veger (in English: Textbook.
Maintenance and operations of roads), Norwegian Public Roads Administration
(NPRA) Reports, Oslo, 365, 2011.
NPRA: Veger og snøskred (in English: Roads and snow avalanches),
Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) Håndbok V138, Oslo, 2014.
NVE: Sikkerhet mot skred i bratt terreng (in English: Avalanche safety in
steep terrain), Veileder no, 8 2014. Norwegian water resources and Energy
Directorate (NVE), available at: http://publikasjoner.nve.no/veileder/2014/veileder2014_08.pdf (last access: 24 June 2020), 2014.
Pall, P., Tallaksen, L. M., and Stordal, F.: A climatology of rain-on-snow
events for Norway, J. Climate, 32, 6995–7016,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0529.1, 2019.
Parding, K. and Benestad, R.: Storm activity and climate change in northern
Europe, MET Norway, Oslo, MET report 10/16, 2016.
Polyakov, I. V., Bekryaev, R. V., Alekseev, G. V., Bhatt, U. S., Colony, R. L., Johnson, M. A., Maskshtas, A. P., and Walsh, D.: Variability and Trends of Air Temperature and Pressure in the Maritime Arctic, 1875–2000, J. Climate, 16,
2067–2077, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Pomeroy, J. W. and Gray, D.M.: Snow accumulation, relocation and management, NHRI Science Report No.7, National Hydrology Research Institute, Saskatoon, 1995.
Reistad, M., Breivik, Ø., Haakenstad, H., Aarnes, O. J., Furevik, B. R.,
and Bidlot, J.-R.: A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C05019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006402, 2011.
Saloranta, T.: New version (v.1.1.1) of the seNorge snow model and snow maps
for Norway, NVE report 6-2014, NVE, Oslo, 2014.
Sandersen, F., Bakkehøi, S., Hestnes, E., and Lied, K.: The influence of
meteorological factors on the initiation of debris flows, rockfalls,
rockslides and rock mass stability, in: Proc 7th Symp.
Landslides, Trondheim, Norway, 17–21 June 1996, edited by: Senneset, K., 97–114, 1996.
Schweizer, J., Jamieson, J. B., and Schneebeli, M.: Snow avalanche
formation, Rev. Geophys., 41, 1016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002RG000123, 2003.
Sinickas, A., Jamieson, B., and Maes, M. A.: Snow avalanches in western
Canada: investigating change in occurrence rates and implications for risk
assessment and mitigation, Struct. Infrastruct. E., 12,
490–498, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2015.1020495, 2016.
Sjømatklyngen Senja: Godstransport i sjømatregion Senja (in English:
Freight transportation in Senja seafood region), Sjømatklyngen
Senja, Finnsnes, Norway, 2017.
Sorteberg, A., Kvamstø, N. G., and Byrkjedal, Ø.: Wintertime Nordic
Seas Cyclone Variability and its Impact on Oceanic Volume Transports into
the Nordic Seas, in: The Nordic Seas: An Integrated Perspective, AGU Monograph 158, American geophysical union, Washington DC, edited by:
Drange, H., Dokken, T., Furevik, T., Gerdes, R., and Berger, W., https://doi.org/10.1029/158GM10, 2013.
Sovilla, B., Kern, M., and Schaer, M.: Slow drag in wet-snow avalanche flow,
J. Glaciol., 56, 587–592, 2010.
Teick, M., Marty, C., Gollut, C., Grêt-Regamey, A., and Bebi, P.: Snow
and weather conditions associated with avalanche releases in forests: Rare
situations with decreasing trends during the last 41 years, Cold Reg. Sci.
Technol., 83–84, 77–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.06.007, 2012.
Tveito, O. E., Udnæs, H. C., Mengistu, Z., Engeset, R., and Førland,
E. J.: New snow maps for Norway, in: Proc XXII Nord Hydrol Conf., 4–7 August
2002, Røros, Norway, NHP Report 47, 527–532, 2002.
Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Isaksen, K., Haugen, J. E., Tømmervik, H., Luks, B.,
Schuler, T., and Bjerke J.: Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic
Arctic Region, J. Climate, 29, 6223–6244, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0763.1, 2016.
Vincent, L. A. and Mekis, É.: Changes in daily and extreme temperature
and precipitation indices for Canada over the twentieth century,
Atmos.-Ocean, 44, 177–193, 2006.
Wong, W. K. and Nilsen, I. B.: Bias-adjustment of maximum and minimum
temperatures for Norway, NVE, Oslo, NVE report No. 51 – 2019, 2019.
Wong, W. K., Haddeland, I., Lawrence, D., and Beldring, S.: Gridded 1×1 km
climate and hydrological projections for Norway, NVE, Oslo, NVE report No. 59 – 2016,
2016.
Yue, S. and Pilon, P.: A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall
and bootstrap tests for trend detection, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 21–37, 2004.
Zappa, G., Shaffre, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: The ability of CMIP5 models to
simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, J. Climate, 26,
5379–5396, 2013.
Short summary
We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint