Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
Research article
19 Nov 2018
Research article | 19 Nov 2018

How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?

Ayse Duha Metin et al.

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. 
Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk analyses – How detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8, 2009. 
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, 134, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5, 2016. 
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009. 
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027, 2010. 
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We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
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