Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Nguyen Viet Dung
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kai Schröter
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Björn Guse
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
Heiko Apel
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Heidi Kreibich
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful for decision-making. We propose a new validation framework that considers not only technical aspects but also the real-world context in which decisions are made. By applying this framework to flood emergency planning, we demonstrate its practicality.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15,000 potential floods riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events were reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Boutzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2420, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually “impossible”, yet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Brunella Bonaccorso, Carmelo Cammalleri, Athanasios Loukas, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1857–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, 2022
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Valeria Cigala, Giulia Roder, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Non-male scientists constitute a minority in the geoscience professional environment, and they are underrepresented in disaster risk reduction planning. So far the international agenda has failed to effectively promote gender inclusion in disaster policy, preventing non-male scientists from career development and recognition. Here we share the thoughts, experiences, and priorities of women and non-binary scientists as a starting point to expand the discourse and promote intersectional research.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
Lieke Anna Melsen and Björn Guse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Certain hydrological processes become more or less relevant when the climate changes. This should also be visible in the models that are used for long-term predictions of river flow as a consequence of climate change. We investigated this using three different models. The change in relevance should be reflected in how the parameters of the models are determined. In the different models, different processes become more relevant in the future: they disagree with each other.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Zhihua He, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Stephan M. Weise, Doris Duethmann, Olga Kalashnikova, Abror Gafurov, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3289–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the seasonal contributions of the runoff components, including groundwater, snowmelt, glacier melt, and rainfall, to streamflow is highly necessary for understanding the dynamics of water resources in glacierized basins given the vulnerability of snow- and glacier-dominated environments to the current climate warming. Our study provides the first comparison of two end-member mixing approaches for hydrograph separation in glacierized basins.
Benjamin Winter, Klaus Schneeberger, Kristian Förster, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1689-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1689-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper two different methods to generate spatially coherent flood events for probabilistic flood risk modelling are compared: on the one hand, a semi-conditional multi-variate dependence model applied to discharge observations and, on the other hand, a continuous hydrological modelling of synthetic meteorological fields generated by a multi-site weather generator. The results of the two approaches are compared in terms of simulated spatial patterns and overall flood risk estimates.
Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Dirk Diederen, Ye Liu, Ben Gouldby, Ferdinand Diermanse, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1041–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Floods affect many communities and cause a large amount of damage worldwide.
Since we choose to live in natural flood plains and are unable to prevent all floods, a system of insurance and reinsurance was set up.
For these institutes to not fail, estimates are required of the frequency of large-scale flood events.
We explore a new method to obtain a large catalogue of synthetic, spatially coherent, large-scale river discharge events, using a recent (gridded) European discharge data set.
Heidi Kreibich, Thomas Thaler, Thomas Glade, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Sergey Tyagunov, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez, Stefano Parolai, and Kevin Fleming
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of fluvial dikes due to liquefaction is presented. Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic and hydraulic load. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision-making.
Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Björn Guse, Matthias Pfannerstill, Abror Gafurov, Jens Kiesel, Christian Lehr, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5663–5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5663-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5663-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Performance measures are used to evaluate the representation of hydrological processes in parameters of hydrological models. In this study, we investigated how strongly model parameters and performance measures are connected. It was found that relationships are different for varying flow conditions, indicating that precise parameter identification requires multiple performance measures. The suggested approach contributes to a better handling of parameters in hydrological modelling.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Martin Hoelzle, Erlan Azisov, Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, Abror Gafurov, Wilfried Hagg, Ruslan Kenzhebaev, Marlene Kronenberg, Horst Machguth, Alexandr Merkushkin, Bolot Moldobekov, Maxim Petrov, Tomas Saks, Nadine Salzmann, Tilo Schöne, Yuri Tarasov, Ryskul Usubaliev, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Andrey Yakovlev, and Michael Zemp
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, 2017
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Annegret H. Thieken, Tina Bessel, Sarah Kienzler, Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Sebastian Pisi, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in central Europe, especially in Germany. The paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data, and how good data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international level, e.g. by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, 2016
Philip Bubeck, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Hans de Moel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1005–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016, 2016
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
J. Fohringer, D. Dransch, H. Kreibich, and K. Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2725–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2725-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
During and shortly after a disaster, data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. The case study of the June 2013 flood in the city of Dresden shows that social media may help to bridge the information gap when traditional data sources are lacking or are sparse.
M. Pfannerstill, B. Guse, D. Reusser, and N. Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4365–4376, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4365-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4365-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
To ensure reliable model results, hydrological processes have to be represented adequately in models. We present a framework that uses a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis and observed hydrological processes in the catchment to verify hydrological models. The framework is exemplarily applied to verify the groundwater structure of a hydrological model. The results show the appropriate simulation of all relevant hydrological processes in relation to processes observed in the catchment.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Kienzler, I. Pech, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
A. Gafurov, S. Vorogushyn, D. Farinotti, D. Duethmann, A. Merkushkin, and B. Merz
The Cryosphere, 9, 451–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially distributed snow-cover data are available only for the recent past from remote sensing. Sometimes we need snow-cover data over a longer period for climate impact analysis for the calibration/validation of hydrological models. In this study we present a methodology to reconstruct snow cover in the past using available long-term in situ data and recently available remote sensing snow-cover data. The results show about 85% accuracy although only a limited number of stations (7) were used.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
P. Hudson, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, P. Bubeck, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1731–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, 2014
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, 2014
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
S. Vorogushyn and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3871–3884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, 2013
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
D. Duethmann, J. Zimmer, A. Gafurov, A. Güntner, D. Kriegel, B. Merz, and S. Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2415–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, 2013
I. Seifert, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1691–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1691-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1691-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 895–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, 2013
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics and accuracy of risk perceptions
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas: A blueprint for regional multisectoral drought impact assessment
Anticipating a risky future: LSTM models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using and Agent-Based model. Case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of Life Cycle Consequence (LCCon) Analysis.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, Wouter J. W. Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeff Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gomez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1794, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of a high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policy makers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases
the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk
analyses – How detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8, 2009.
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flood
risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, 134, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5, 2016.
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial formulation
of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation
modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027, 2010.
BMVBW: Normalherstellungskosten 2005, available at: http://www.bki.de/
(last access: 6 April 2017), 2005.
Bouwer, L. M.: Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1, 2011.
Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Changes in future flood risk
due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area, Global Environ. Change,
20, 463–471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002, 2010.
Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., and Aerts, J. C. J.: Long-term
development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: An analysis
for the German part of the river Rhine, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12,
3507–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3507-2012, 2012.
Büchele, B., Kreibich, H., Kron, A., Thieken, A., Ihringer, J., Oberle, P.,
Merz, B., and Nestmann, F.: Flood-risk mapping: Contributions towards an enhanced
assessment of extreme events and associated risks, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
6, 483–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-485-2006, 2006.
Budiyono, Y., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Tollenaar, D., and Ward, P. J.: River flood
risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
16, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, 2016.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage
models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58,
407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
DESTATIS: Preise. Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland – Lange Reihen
ab 1948–Dezember 2011, Wiesbaden, 19 pp., 2012.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Yan, K., Brandimarte, L.,
and Blöschl, G.: Debates - Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing
feedbacks between physical and social processes, Water Resour. Res., 51,
4770–4781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016416, 2015.
Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S., and Gupta, V.: Effective and Efficient Global Optimization
for Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1015–1031, 1992.
Elmer, F., Thieken, A. H., Pech, I., and Kreibich, H.: Influence of flood
frequency on residential building losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10,
2145–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2145-2010, 2010.
Elmer, F., Hoymann, J., Düthmann, D., Vorogushyn, S., and Kreibich, H.:
Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
12, 1641–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1641-2012, 2012.
Falter, D., Vorogushyn, S., Lhomme, J., Apel, H., Gouldby, B., and Merz, B.:
Hydraulic model evaluation for large-scale flood risk assessments, Hydrol.
Process., 27, 1331–1340, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9553, 2013.
Falter, D., Schröter, K., Dung, N. V., Vorogushyn, S., Kreibich, H.,
Hundecha, Y., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Spatially coherent flood risk assessment
based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain, J. Hydrol.,
524, 182–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.021, 2015.
Falter, D., Dung, N. V., Vorogushyn, S., Schröter, K., Hundecha, Y.,
Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Theisselmann, F., and Merz, B.: Continuous, large-scale
simulation model for flood risk assessments: Proof-of-concept, J. Flood Risk
Manage., 9, 3–21, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12105, 2016.
Feyen, L., Barredo, J. I., and Dankers, R.: Implications of global warming and
urban land use change on flooding in Europe, in: Water and urban development
paradigms, edited by: Feyen, J., Shannon, K., and Neville, M., Taylor & Francis
Group, London, UK, 217–225, 2009.
Feyen, L., Dankers, R., Bódis, K., Salamon, P., and Barredo, J. I.: Fluvial
flood risk in Europe in present and future climates, Climatic Change, 112,
47–62, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7, 2012.
Haberlandt, U. and Radtke, I.: Hydrological model calibration for derived flood
frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of
peak flows, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-353-2014, 2014.
Hall, J. W., Evans, E. P., Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Sayers, P. B., Thorne, C. R.,
and Saul, A. J.: Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing
flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100, Environ. Hazards, 5, 51–65,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2004.04.002, 2004.
Handmer J., Honda, Y., Kundzewics, N., Arnell, N., Benito, G., Hatfield, J.,
Mohamed, I., Peduzzi, P., Wu, S., Sherstyukov, B., Takahashi, K., and Yan, Z.:
Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems, in:
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and
New York, NY, USA, 231–290, 2012
Hoekstra, A. Y. and Kok, J. L.: Adapting to climate change: A comparison of two
strategies for dike heightening, Nat. Hazards, 47, 217–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9213-y, 2008.
Hundecha, Y. and Merz, B.: Exploring the relationship between changes in climate
and floods using a model-based analysis, Water Resour. Res., 48, 1–21,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010527, 2012.
Hundecha, Y., Pahlow, M., and Schumann, A.: Modeling of daily precipitation at
multiple locations using a mixture of distributions to characterize the extremes,
Water Resour. Res., 45, W12412, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007453, 2009.
INFAS Geodaten GmbH: Database Das DataWherehouse, Bonn, 2009.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, in: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V.,
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach,
K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp., 2012.
Jongman, B., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Coughlan de Perez, E.,
van Aalst, M. K., Kron, W., and Ward, P. J.: Declining vulnerability to river
floods and the global benefits of adaptation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112,
E2271–E2280, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414439112, 2015.
Kleist, L., Thieken, A. H., Köhler, P., Müller, M., Seifert, I., Borst,
D., and Werner, U.: Estimation of the regional stock of residential buildings
as a basis for a comparative risk assessment in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 6, 541–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-541-2006, 2006.
Kreibich, H., Thieken, a. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., and Merz, B.: Flood
loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons
learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5,
117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-117-2005, 2005.
Kreibich, H., Di Baldassarre, G., Vorogushyn, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Apel, H.,
Aronica, G. T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Caloiero, T.,
Chinh, D. T., Cortès, M., Gain, A. K., Giampá, V., Kuhlicke, C.,
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Llasat, M. C., Mård, J., Matczak, P., Mazzoleni, M.,
Molinari, D., Dung, N. V., Petrucci, O., Schröter, K., Slager, K., Thieken,
A. H., Ward, P. J., and Merz, B.: Adaptation to flood risk: Results of
international paired flood event studies, Earth's Future, 5, 953–965,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000606, 2017.
Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D. I., and Becker, A.: Development and test
of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale
watersheds, Ecol. Model., 106, 261–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00204-4, 1998.
Lung, T., Lavalle, C., Hiederer, R., Dosio, A., and Bouwer, L. M.: A multi-hazard
regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic
and non-climatic change, Global Environ. Change, 23, 522–536, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.009, 2013.
Mechler, R. and Bouwer, L. M.: Understanding trends and projections of disaster
losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?, Climatic Change,
133, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1141-0, 2015.
Merz, B., Elmer, F., and Thieken, A. H.: Significance of “high probability/low
damage” versus “low probability/high damage” flood events, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 9, 1033–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1033-2009, 2009.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article “Assessment
of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Merz, B., Aerts, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Baldi, M., Becker, A., Bichet, A.,
Blöschl, G., Bouwer, L. M., Brauer, A., Cioffi, F., Delgado, J. M., Gocht,
M., Guzzetti, F., Harrigan, S., Hirschboeck, K., Kilsby, C., Kron, W., Kwon, H.
H., Lall, U., Merz, R., Nissen, K., Salvatti, P., Swierczynski, T., Ulbrich, U.,
Viglione, A., Ward, P. J., Weiler, M., Wilhelm, B., and Nied, M.: Floods and
climate: Emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014.
Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.:
Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion:
A probabilistic analysis using global data, Sci. Total Environ., 538, 445–457,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068, 2015.
Neumayer, E. and Barthel, F.: Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters:
A global analysis, Global Environ. Change, 21, 13–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.10.004, 2011.
Petrow, Th., Merz, B., Lindenschmidt, K.-E., and Thieken, A. H.: Aspects of
seasonality and flood generating circulation patterns in a mountainous catchment
in south-eastern Germany, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1455–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1455-2007, 2007.
Pianosi, F., Beven, K., Freer, J., Hall, J. W., Rougier, J., Stephenson, D. B.,
and Wagener, T.: Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic
review with practical workflow, Environ. Model. Softw., 79, 214–232,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.008, 2016.
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., and Watkiss, P.: Climate change and river floods in the
European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of
adaptation, Global Environ. Change, 23, 1737–1751, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006, 2013.
Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie: Stauanlagenverzeichnis 2002,
Talsperren, Wasserspeicher und Hochwasserrückhaltebecken im Freistaat Sachsen,
available at: https://www.umwelt.sachsen.de/lfug (last access: 19 December 2016), 2002.
Schädler, G., Berg, P., Düthmann, D., Feldmann, H., Ihringer, J.,
Kunstmann, H., Liebert, J., Merz, B., Ott, I., and Wagner, S.: Flood Hazards
in a Changing Climate, Technical Report, CEDIM-report, Karlsruhe, available at:
https://www.cedim.kit.edu/download/Flood_Hazards_in_a_Changing_Climate.pdf
(last access: 16 November 2018), 2012.
Schröter, K., Kunz, M., Elmer, F., Mühr, B., and Merz, B.: What made
the June 2013 flood in Germany an exceptional event? A hydro-meteorological
evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015.
Song, X., Zhang, J., Zhan, C., Xuan, Y., Ye, M., and Xu, C.: Global sensitivity
analysis in hydrological modeling: Review of concepts, methods, theoretical
framework, and applications, J. Hydrol., 523, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.013, 2015.
Te Linde, A. H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J. E. C., De Moel, H., and Aerts, J. C.
J. H.: Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 11, 459–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-459-2011, 2011.
Thieken, A. H., Olschewski, A., Kreibich, H., Kobsch, S., and Merz, B.:
Development and evaluation of FLEMOps - A new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for
the private sector, WIT Trans. Ecol. Environ., 118, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.2495/FRIAR080301, 2008.
Thieken, A. H., Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Mühr,
B., Müller, M., Otto, A., Petrow, T., Pisi, S., and Schröter, K.: Review
of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013,
Ecol. Soc., 21, 51, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251, 2016.
Umweltbundesamt: Trends der Niederschlagshöhe, available at:
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/384/bilder/dateien/2_tab_lineare-trends-ns_2017-05-03.pdf
(last access: 24 May 2018), 2017a.
Umweltbundesamt: Trends der Lufttemperatur, available at:
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/384/bilder/dateien/4_tab_lineare-trends-lufttemperatur_2017-05-03.pdf
(last access: 24 May 2018), 2017b.
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report 2013, UNISDR, Geneva, 2013.
UNISDR: Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management.
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Office for
Disaster Risk reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland, 2015.
van Griensven, A., Meixner, T., Grunwald, S., Bishop, T., Diluzio, M., and
Srinivasan, R.: A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of
multi-variable catchment models, J. Hydrol., 324, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.008, 2006.
Visser, H., Petersen, A. C., and Ligtvoet, W.: On the relation between
weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change, Climatic
Change, 125, 461–477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1179-z, 2014.
Vorogushyn, S., Lindenschmidt, K. E., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., and Merz, B.:
Analysis of a detention basin impact on dike failure probabilities and flood
risk for a channel-dike-floodplain system along the river Elbe, Germany, J.
Hydrol., 436–437, 120–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.03.006, 2012.
Vorogushyn, S., Bates, P. D., de Bruijn, K., Castellarin, A., Kreibich, H.,
Priest, S., Schröter, K., Bagli, S., Blöschl, G., Domeneghetti, A.,
Gouldby, B., Klijn, F., Lammersen, R., Neal, J. C., Ridder, N., Terink, W.,
Viavattene, C., Viglione, A., Zanardo, S., and Merz, B.: Evolutionary leap in
large-scale flood risk assessment needed, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water, 5,
e1266, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266, 2017.
Wirtz, A., Kron, W., Löw, P., and Steuer, M.: The need for data: Natural
disasters and the challenges of database management, Nat. Hazards, 70, 135–157,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0312-4, 2014.
Zwaneveld, P. J. and Verweij, G.: Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs, The
Hague, 44 pp., available at:
https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/cpb-discussion-paper-277-safe-dike-heights-minimal-costs
(last access: 10 July 2017), 2014.
Short summary
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint