Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Nov 2018
Research article |
| 19 Nov 2018
| 19 Nov 2018
How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Nguyen Viet Dung
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kai Schröter
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Björn Guse
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
Heiko Apel
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Heidi Kreibich
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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- Panta Rhei: a decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society H. Kreibich et al. 10.1080/02626667.2025.2469762
- Ensemble Flood Risk Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under CMIP6 SSP-RCP Scenarios L. Peng & Z. Li 10.3390/su132112097
- Bias in Flood Hazard Grid Aggregation S. Bryant et al. 10.1029/2023WR035100
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- Assessing Flood Risks of Small Reservoirs in Huangshan, Anhui Province, China N. Yang et al. 10.3390/w17121786
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- Population, land use and economic exposure estimates for Europe at 100 m resolution from 1870 to 2020 D. Paprotny & M. Mengel 10.1038/s41597-023-02282-0
- Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany V. Nguyen et al. 10.1002/joc.7107
- HANZE v2.1: an improved database of flood impacts in Europe from 1870 to 2020 D. Paprotny et al. 10.5194/essd-16-5145-2024
- A non-stationary climate-informed weather generator for assessing future flood risks V. Nguyen et al. 10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024
- Needed: A systems approach to improve flood risk mitigation through private precautionary measures M. Barendrecht et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100080
- Rethinking data‐driven decision support in flood risk management for a big data age R. Towe et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12652
- A comprehensive geospatial database of nearly 100 000 reservoirs in China C. Song et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4017-2022
- Combined basin-scale and decentralized flood risk assessment: a methodological approach for preliminary flood risk assessment M. Vojtek et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2157279
- Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity – implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation L. Melsen & B. Guse 10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Accounting for Economic Factors in Socio-Hydrology: Optimization under Uncertainty and Climate Change L. Abadie et al. 10.3390/w11102073
- Neglecting property-level flood risk adaptation measures lead to overestimation in flood risk analysis – An empirical study N. Rindsfüser et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105326
- The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation A. Metin et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020
- Predicting flood insurance claims with hydrologic and socioeconomic demographics via machine learning: Exploring the roles of topography, minority populations, and political dissimilarity J. Knighton et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111051
- The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation L. Beevers et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04282-4
- Large-scale flood risk assessment and management: Prospects of a systems approach K. Schröter et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2021.100109
- Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments T. Sieg et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12889
- Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling C. Rougé et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021
- Evolution characteristics of the rainstorm disaster chains in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China Y. Wang et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06108-5
- Panta Rhei: a decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society H. Kreibich et al. 10.1080/02626667.2025.2469762
- Ensemble Flood Risk Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under CMIP6 SSP-RCP Scenarios L. Peng & Z. Li 10.3390/su132112097
- Bias in Flood Hazard Grid Aggregation S. Bryant et al. 10.1029/2023WR035100
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Inventory of dams in Germany G. Speckhann et al. 10.5194/essd-13-731-2021
- A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types D. Paprotny et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x
- Quantifying risk contagion of fluvial flood disaster chain W. Zhang et al. 10.1080/17499518.2024.2391290
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- Assessing Flood Risks of Small Reservoirs in Huangshan, Anhui Province, China N. Yang et al. 10.3390/w17121786
- Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts” H. Kreibich et al. 10.1080/02626667.2019.1701194
- Population, land use and economic exposure estimates for Europe at 100 m resolution from 1870 to 2020 D. Paprotny & M. Mengel 10.1038/s41597-023-02282-0
- Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany V. Nguyen et al. 10.1002/joc.7107
- HANZE v2.1: an improved database of flood impacts in Europe from 1870 to 2020 D. Paprotny et al. 10.5194/essd-16-5145-2024
- A non-stationary climate-informed weather generator for assessing future flood risks V. Nguyen et al. 10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024
- Needed: A systems approach to improve flood risk mitigation through private precautionary measures M. Barendrecht et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100080
- Rethinking data‐driven decision support in flood risk management for a big data age R. Towe et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12652
- A comprehensive geospatial database of nearly 100 000 reservoirs in China C. Song et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4017-2022
- Combined basin-scale and decentralized flood risk assessment: a methodological approach for preliminary flood risk assessment M. Vojtek et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2157279
- Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity – implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation L. Melsen & B. Guse 10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 08 Jul 2025
Short summary
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood...
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